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    No Trades: Brewers Should Play The Options They Have in Nashville


    Jake McKibbin

    There are a lot of needs for the Milwaukee Brewers offensively, but what should be an offensive first position has struggled, with both first base and the designated hitter slots providing the worst production in MLB by WRC+. However, an issue is that the only reliable fills-in are big names like Paul Goldschmidt, and then there is a big drop off to less effective bats like Carlos Santana, Andrew Vaughn, or even (I hope not) Bobby Dalbec.

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    One thing we have seen this year is the way in which young, prospect-filled teams have taken the bull by the horns and run with it in the form of the Diamondbacks, Orioles, and even the Reds. There’s a definite bounce after Sal Frelick’s promotion, and could there be more of this on the way?

    First base expects an average production of 114 WRC+ going by the league-wide production value, so it should be the home of a big bat. Recently, the Brewers have been experimenting with Owen Miller, who, despite the eye test, has been a very solid defensive glove due to his added range and seems to be getting better each day. However, his production dropped further in July, hitting .194 with a 26% strikeout rate and just three extra-base hits. It’s clear that the Brewers need more from this spot, but if there aren’t options here, where else could they escape Jesse Winker’s shadow?

    Victor Caratini
    Caratini showed last year he has a relatively decent offensive profile until overplaying at the catcher spot caused his stats at the plate to tumble after June, struggling in the second half of the season (understandably so) due to Omar Narvaez’s injury. Over the last month, he has a .788 OPS, looked both more mobile than Tellez and better at picking balls than Owen Miller when he filled in, and is a switch hitter, something Counsell loves. So far this season, Caratini has a .746 OPS against right-handers, albeit struggling a lot more against lefties, and could be part of a platoon with Owen Miller, who's been one of the better hitters against left-handers and has at least shown glimpses of the quality contact hitter he was in May over the last couple of weeks.

    In all likelihood, this solution is being saved for the next few weeks until the trade deadline passes or until Tellez returns, hoping he finds his power-hitting form for a couple of months.


    Keston Hiura
    Hiura currently has a 12-game on-base streak going down in AAA Nashville. Still, he hasn’t looked the same player pre-injury yet, with a noticeable lack of the quality contact and exit velocities he was putting up earlier in the season and much of the streak being fueled by a propensity to be hit by pitches. As much as I’m a fan of Hiura’s bat, particularly at DH, it feels unfair to bring him up when he’s not ready. His injury earlier in the season came at the most unfortunate time, given his regular dropping of his strikeout rate and home runs almost every other night at AAA. Hiura, at his best, has high slugging numbers. Although he’s demonstrated just a 23% strikeout rate in July, with a .449 OBP, he’s still just slightly off, producing a .864 OPS in that time which sounds decent but is the minimum you'd expect from a MLB hitter in Triple-A this year. He's not far off, and it could be something similar to Frelick, where it just clicks, and in a week, he's up with the the big boys again.

    Another thing, although a small sample size, is he’s hitting left-handers better than right-handers so far this season with a 1.034 OPS against southpaws. His total elimination of a leg kick seems to have addressed his swing and miss at the top of the strike zone. Should the Brewers give him a shot? Even one hot month of Keston Hiura could make a huge difference to the Brewers, who are struggling for power numbers of late.


    Abraham Toro
    Toro has been filling in at first base as of late, and after a rough debut, he’s shown a lot of range, a nice glove over there, and his bat has been HOT. After another double on Sunday night, he’s hitting .385/.446/.708 in July for the Nashville Sounds with three home runs and a double.

    He’s absolutely raked in the minors before, notably before his call-up with Astros in 2019, as he destroyed AA and AAA before forcing a promotion and slumping. He’s not a power bat by any means, but he can clear the fence and provides good regular contact quality, with an 18% strikeout rate in his last month. Incredibly unfortunate BABIPs have fueled his major league efforts to date, and it could be that he’s first in line for a chance given how often he’s been playing at first base compared to Keston Hiura, who’s more often seen manning left field.

    As mentioned before, Counsell loves platoon matchups and therefore switch hitters. Toro's versatility to fill in almost anywhere in the infield would give him an edge over some of his rivals. Unless Luis Urias kicks off, he may also be in line should there be more problems at the hot corner.

    Could Toro provide something above and beyond what the Brewers are currently getting, even if it’s just until Rowdy returns?


    Tyler Black
    Black has been the best bat in the Brewers system across the first half of the season, even with the sticky balls used in AA early in the season. With a fantastic eye at the plate, solid bat-to-ball skills, and the injection of more power in his game, the question is, could he play against major league stuff and produce similar results?

    On top of this, Black currently has 45 stolen bases this season, an incredible number, and his lowest on-base percentage for a month was .394 in May. His control of the strike zone would seem very ready for the majors, and on top of this, he’s slugging even more in the last two months, with seven home runs, five triples, and ten doubles since the start of June. He could be a huge spark, but are the Brewers willing to take the risk?

    The Brewers seem intent on Black developing as a third baseman, and he has shown dramatic progress in this area over the season, making both routine and more difficult plays now, whereas he was a total liability earlier in the season. They could cut this short and simply DH him (given he’s never played first base), but it could cut short his development and potential at the hot corner.

    It’s also important to note that two very high-profile prospects were brought up to start the year from Double-A in Anthony Volpe and Jordan Walker, who struggled massively initially (Walker has performed better since his demotion). The Brewers can’t afford to mess with Black this way or give him a lot of time to work things out at this level.

    Do any of these options appeal to the Brewer Fanatics? What do you think the Brewers' deadline approach will be?

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    Brandon Sproat

    Milwaukee Brewers - MLB, RHP
    Sproat had a rough first appearance in a Brewers uniform (3 IP, 7 ER, 3 HR). On Thursday, he gave up one run on 4 hits and a walk over 6 2/3 innings. He struck out six Blue Jays batters.

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    6 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

    Yeah even before this current hot patch he was striking out far less, but just making poor quality contact. The next stage seems to be knowing which pitches to take and which ones he's doing damage on to increase the regularity of AB's ending in quality contact. EDlC did this in a month, I don't think it'll take too long to refine his approach and his contact ability is way past Elly's. He's actually increased his floor massively with this, given that oppo power, can you imagine only striking out 15-16% of the time? Good lord

    Yeah Chourio kind of is giving off Ryan Braun vibes right now. If he could even remotely come close to Braun's bat with his CF defense, you are talking a superstar.

    • Like 2
    • Love 1
    7 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

    This timeline is so incredibly off for Chourio. He’s going to be in the MLB far sooner than mid-season 2025

    I'll be shocked I lf he's not up by the all star break next year.  And not surprised at all if it's sooner.

    2 hours ago, StearnsFTW said:

    I'll be shocked I lf he's not up by the all star break next year.  And not surprised at all if it's sooner.

    I wouldn't be surprised if he bulks up this offseason and makes the opening day roster. Chourio is about the best chance we have of getting the 1st round pick for having the ROTY

    • Like 3
    1 minute ago, wiguy94 said:

    I wouldn't be surprised if he bulks up this offseason and makes the opening day roster. Chourio is about the best chance we have of getting the 1st round pick for having the ROTY

    Wouldn't shock me at all. He's pretty much a lock at this point to end up at Nashville before the end of the season, so it's not like he would be skipping AAA entirely (like Soto).  

    • Like 1
    23 hours ago, ClosetBrewerFan said:

    Toro has been really crushing the ball in the last month.  He's deserves a callup to play 1B.  We need Own Miller's bat out of the lineup.  He is dangerously close to finishing July with an OPS under .500 for the month.

    I think I am warming to the idea of giving Toro a shot too.  Doesn't seem likely the FO will promote Hiura, Chourio, or Black to Milwaukee.  I'd hate to lose good prospects for league average rentals at the deadline.

    Toro can play defense, his LH/RH splits are pretty even and the OPS over 800 looks good.  Issue is with past MLB performance, the .629 OPS in over 800 ABs is not pretty.

    Is it more likely that the Brewers get close-to-average production from 1B/DH by hoping Tellez/Winker turn things around, or that Hiura, Toro, or a collection of Nashville nobodies (written with respect) will do it?

    Same question applies to most of the likely trade targets.

    While the truism applies that you can't just keep going with Tellez/Winker and expect different results, projecting baseball production is often a fool's errand, and quite possibly, a DFA'd Winker could get picked up by some coastal team and play well down the stretch. I'm sure this is still the conversation in the Front Office.

    Getting Justin Wilson and Woodruff back is like getting an all star starter and veteran lefty reliever for free which means less need to overspend on offense. Speaking of offense, there are several players who've under performed but have enough of a track record to think they'll turn it around. Most notably Urias and Adames. I wouldn't mind at all if they keep the farm intact. I really don't really want them to trade anyone of note just for a stop gap player.

    Ro Mueller
  • Brewer Fanatic Contributor
  • Posted

    Since RHH OF/INF Jahmai Jones was called up on July 16 instead of switch-hitting INF Abraham Toro, Toro has gone 17-for-36 with 8 doubles, a homer and 10 RBIs. Toro was getting some solid results at the time, so this surge is not much of a surprise. And no, I don’t expect it to continue into August.

    Sucks to miss out on these little AAAA-player hot streaks (like Hiura in April, Singleton in May, Alex Jackson in June). They usually only last about 3 weeks, but they’re worth tapping into. 

    • Love 1
    Jake McKibbin
  • Brewer Fanatic Contributor
  • Posted

    5 minutes ago, damuelle said:

    Since RHH OF/INF Jahmai Jones was called up on July 16 instead of switch-hitting INF Abraham Toro, Toro has gone 17-for-36 with 8 doubles, a homer and 10 RBIs. Toro was getting some solid results at the time, so this surge is not much of a surprise. And no, I don’t expect it to continue into August.

    Sucks to miss out on these little AAAA-player hot streaks (like Hiura in April, Singleton in May, Alex Jackson in June). They usually only last about 3 weeks, but they’re worth tapping into. 

    I think some of this depends on whether they ned an adjustment period, for example it has happened with Toro in the past, it's why the Astros finally traded him. Looked great at AAA and struggled after, although he did have very low BABIP's

    Jahmai Jones likely won't be too long for the team, but we'll find out soon enough

    Hiura wasnt just hot in April/May, he was actually performing consistently and I'm guessing he's working back to that still post injury. It'll click at some point again, the question is when. Good news is that even in a funk he's still not striking out!

     

    • Like 1
    Ro Mueller
  • Brewer Fanatic Contributor
  • Posted

    6 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

    Hiura wasnt just hot in April/May, he was actually performing consistently and I'm guessing he's working back to that still post injury. It'll click at some point again, the question is when. Good news is that even in a funk he's still not striking out!

     

    I assume Hiura’s crowding the plate moreso of late: 10 HBPs over his last 20 games, not including yesterday’s when he was hit, the umpire failed to call it and insult was added by being ejected from the game.

    • Like 1
    Jake McKibbin
  • Brewer Fanatic Contributor
  • Posted

    1 minute ago, damuelle said:

    I assume Hiura’s crowding the plate moreso of late: 10 HBPs over his last 20 games, not including yesterday’s when he was hit, the umpire failed to call it and insult was added by being ejected from the game.

    Yeah been getting a lot of those... I wonder if it's helping him cover the outer part of the plate better, if so we'll see once the timing adapts how he fares




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