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  • No Trades: Brewers Should Play The Options They Have in Nashville


    Jake McKibbin

    There are a lot of needs for the Milwaukee Brewers offensively, but what should be an offensive first position has struggled, with both first base and the designated hitter slots providing the worst production in MLB by WRC+. However, an issue is that the only reliable fills-in are big names like Paul Goldschmidt, and then there is a big drop off to less effective bats like Carlos Santana, Andrew Vaughn, or even (I hope not) Bobby Dalbec.

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    One thing we have seen this year is the way in which young, prospect-filled teams have taken the bull by the horns and run with it in the form of the Diamondbacks, Orioles, and even the Reds. There’s a definite bounce after Sal Frelick’s promotion, and could there be more of this on the way?

    First base expects an average production of 114 WRC+ going by the league-wide production value, so it should be the home of a big bat. Recently, the Brewers have been experimenting with Owen Miller, who, despite the eye test, has been a very solid defensive glove due to his added range and seems to be getting better each day. However, his production dropped further in July, hitting .194 with a 26% strikeout rate and just three extra-base hits. It’s clear that the Brewers need more from this spot, but if there aren’t options here, where else could they escape Jesse Winker’s shadow?

    Victor Caratini
    Caratini showed last year he has a relatively decent offensive profile until overplaying at the catcher spot caused his stats at the plate to tumble after June, struggling in the second half of the season (understandably so) due to Omar Narvaez’s injury. Over the last month, he has a .788 OPS, looked both more mobile than Tellez and better at picking balls than Owen Miller when he filled in, and is a switch hitter, something Counsell loves. So far this season, Caratini has a .746 OPS against right-handers, albeit struggling a lot more against lefties, and could be part of a platoon with Owen Miller, who's been one of the better hitters against left-handers and has at least shown glimpses of the quality contact hitter he was in May over the last couple of weeks.

    In all likelihood, this solution is being saved for the next few weeks until the trade deadline passes or until Tellez returns, hoping he finds his power-hitting form for a couple of months.


    Keston Hiura
    Hiura currently has a 12-game on-base streak going down in AAA Nashville. Still, he hasn’t looked the same player pre-injury yet, with a noticeable lack of the quality contact and exit velocities he was putting up earlier in the season and much of the streak being fueled by a propensity to be hit by pitches. As much as I’m a fan of Hiura’s bat, particularly at DH, it feels unfair to bring him up when he’s not ready. His injury earlier in the season came at the most unfortunate time, given his regular dropping of his strikeout rate and home runs almost every other night at AAA. Hiura, at his best, has high slugging numbers. Although he’s demonstrated just a 23% strikeout rate in July, with a .449 OBP, he’s still just slightly off, producing a .864 OPS in that time which sounds decent but is the minimum you'd expect from a MLB hitter in Triple-A this year. He's not far off, and it could be something similar to Frelick, where it just clicks, and in a week, he's up with the the big boys again.

    Another thing, although a small sample size, is he’s hitting left-handers better than right-handers so far this season with a 1.034 OPS against southpaws. His total elimination of a leg kick seems to have addressed his swing and miss at the top of the strike zone. Should the Brewers give him a shot? Even one hot month of Keston Hiura could make a huge difference to the Brewers, who are struggling for power numbers of late.


    Abraham Toro
    Toro has been filling in at first base as of late, and after a rough debut, he’s shown a lot of range, a nice glove over there, and his bat has been HOT. After another double on Sunday night, he’s hitting .385/.446/.708 in July for the Nashville Sounds with three home runs and a double.

    He’s absolutely raked in the minors before, notably before his call-up with Astros in 2019, as he destroyed AA and AAA before forcing a promotion and slumping. He’s not a power bat by any means, but he can clear the fence and provides good regular contact quality, with an 18% strikeout rate in his last month. Incredibly unfortunate BABIPs have fueled his major league efforts to date, and it could be that he’s first in line for a chance given how often he’s been playing at first base compared to Keston Hiura, who’s more often seen manning left field.

    As mentioned before, Counsell loves platoon matchups and therefore switch hitters. Toro's versatility to fill in almost anywhere in the infield would give him an edge over some of his rivals. Unless Luis Urias kicks off, he may also be in line should there be more problems at the hot corner.

    Could Toro provide something above and beyond what the Brewers are currently getting, even if it’s just until Rowdy returns?


    Tyler Black
    Black has been the best bat in the Brewers system across the first half of the season, even with the sticky balls used in AA early in the season. With a fantastic eye at the plate, solid bat-to-ball skills, and the injection of more power in his game, the question is, could he play against major league stuff and produce similar results?

    On top of this, Black currently has 45 stolen bases this season, an incredible number, and his lowest on-base percentage for a month was .394 in May. His control of the strike zone would seem very ready for the majors, and on top of this, he’s slugging even more in the last two months, with seven home runs, five triples, and ten doubles since the start of June. He could be a huge spark, but are the Brewers willing to take the risk?

    The Brewers seem intent on Black developing as a third baseman, and he has shown dramatic progress in this area over the season, making both routine and more difficult plays now, whereas he was a total liability earlier in the season. They could cut this short and simply DH him (given he’s never played first base), but it could cut short his development and potential at the hot corner.

    It’s also important to note that two very high-profile prospects were brought up to start the year from Double-A in Anthony Volpe and Jordan Walker, who struggled massively initially (Walker has performed better since his demotion). The Brewers can’t afford to mess with Black this way or give him a lot of time to work things out at this level.

    Do any of these options appeal to the Brewer Fanatics? What do you think the Brewers' deadline approach will be?

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    39 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

    I cannot imagine the Brewers acquiring a truly game-changing bat via trade because I presume it would cost a lot of prospects. I like CJ Cron but is he a game changer?

    With Winker at a 66 wRC+ and Rowdy at 79, even a couple league average bats would be game changers for this offense.

    My guess is they try to acquire a couple of those kinda guys at the deadline and then use Hiura, Urias, Toro (if they aren’t part of those trades) or maybe even Black/Chourio (if they remain ridiculously hot) to possibly supplement the offense over the last two months.

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    Jake McKibbin
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    Just now, endaround said:

    A  healthy Urias replacing Turang would be a huge upgrade.

    I think Turang is maybe starting to get better... he's got such a smooth swing, and there have been signs of good contact coming through, with a few ripped foul balls etc, as well as some unfortunate liners straight at people. The key difference is his patience at the plate though, with 11 walks to 11 strikeouts since coming back up to the majors. 

    The only way he'll really get a grip though is by facing major league pitchers, and he's showing signs. It's something to be revisited in a month or two, and he shouldn't start against any lefty whatsoever, but I think it's coming just a little

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    9 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

    I think Turang is maybe starting to get better... he's got such a smooth swing, and there have been signs of good contact coming through, with a few ripped foul balls etc, as well as some unfortunate liners straight at people. The key difference is his patience at the plate though, with 11 walks to 11 strikeouts since coming back up to the majors. 

    The only way he'll really get a grip though is by facing major league pitchers, and he's showing signs. It's something to be revisited in a month or two, and he shouldn't start against any lefty whatsoever, but I think it's coming just a little

    As I recall, Turang was notorious for slow starts at each new level in the minors.  Last year he struggled through a long stretch at Nashville with no XBH's.  He ended the year much improved.  Seems like if history repeats, he will get better with more exposure to to MLB pitching.

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    1 hour ago, Frisbee Slider said:

    I cannot imagine the Brewers acquiring a truly game-changing bat via trade because I presume it would cost a lot of prospects. I like CJ Cron but is he a game changer?

    Brewers don’t need game changing to have a dramatic impact on the team. Brewers 1B have a 66 wRC+ which is worst in the MLB. Brewers DH have a 69 wRC+ which is also worst in the MLB. Brewers are also 22nd in HR.

    Upgrading to a league average bat with some pop at those 2 positions would be a dramatic improvement and could easily be a game changer for an offense as bad as ours.

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    Jake McKibbin
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    48 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

    Brewers don’t need game changing to have a dramatic impact on the team. Brewers 1B have a 66 wRC+ which is worst in the MLB. Brewers DH have a 69 wRC+ which is also worst in the MLB. Brewers are also 22nd in HR.

    Upgrading to a league average bat with some pop at those 2 positions would be a dramatic improvement and could easily be a game changer for an offense as bad as ours.

    Absolutely

    I do think there's the potential as well, say if Rowdy comes back with 6-7 weeks left, if he can produce like he did at the start of the season, where he hit 12 homers in a month and a half. It depends whether this forearm injury was a false flag or a real thing he's been struggling with, but I can't imagine he's ever gone two months without a home run without a justifiable reason before

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    I'd add Urias to this list.  He has a 860 OPS in July, starting to show some pop as well.  I'd consider giving Jahmai Jones a trial as a DH.  The Brewers have not given him much of a shot when he has been up with the club.  I think he is unlikely to break out but worth a try. 

    Toro has been really crushing the ball in the last month.  He's deserves a callup to play 1B.  We need Own Miller's bat out of the lineup.  He is dangerously close to finishing July with an OPS under .500 for the month.

    There is plenty of room for these players.  Perkins has done nothing with the bat this month and should be optioned.  Owen Miller has an Option as well.  Winker can be released.  Not sure what to do with Ty Taylor.  Out of options; It would be a shame to see his Brewers career end via a DFA.  I cannot imagine he would be tendered this offseason though as he is now arby eligible.  We just dont need a glove first bOF right now with Weimer, Frelick, and Yelli

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    clancyphile
  • Brewer Fanatic Contributor
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    11 minutes ago, ClosetBrewerFan said:

    I'd add Urias to this list.  He has a 860 OPS in July, starting to show some pop as well.  I'd consider giving Jahmai Jones a trial as a DH.  The Brewers have not given him much of a shot when he has been up with the club.  I think he is unlikely to break out but worth a try. 

    Toro has been really crushing the ball in the last month.  He's deserves a callup to play 1B.  We need Own Miller's bat out of the lineup.  He is dangerously close to finishing July with an OPS under .500 for the month.

    There is plenty of room for these players.  Perkins has done nothing with the bat this month and should be optioned.  Owen Miller has an Option as well.  Winker can be released.  Not sure what to do with Ty Taylor.  Out of options; It would be a shame to see his Brewers career end via a DFA.  I cannot imagine he would be tendered this offseason though as he is now arby eligible.  We just dont need a glove first bOF right now with Weimer, Frelick, and Yelli

    Taylor bats right-handed and could be used to rest Yelich, Mitchell, and Frelick in 2024. He's also been productive vs. lefties in the past.

    Frelick-Mitchell-Wiemer as starters with Taylor 4th OF and Yelich as DH/5th OF is an excellent setup to have for that year, and doesn't break the budget. Gives Chourio the full 2024 season and most of 2025 at Nashville to develop.

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    Jake McKibbin
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    6 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

    Taylor bats right-handed and could be used to rest Yelich, Mitchell, and Frelick in 2024. He's also been productive vs. lefties in the past.

    Frelick-Mitchell-Wiemer as starters with Taylor 4th OF and Yelich as DH/5th OF is an excellent setup to have for that year, and doesn't break the budget. Gives Chourio the full 2024 season and most of 2025 at Nashville to develop.

    It's unlikely at this point that Chourio won't be playing sometime next year, he's clearly making big strides and even going slowly probably means July/August next year barring injury. I can't see Taylor being retained just to keep Chourio as a prospect for the sake of it

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    Shouldn't Chourio be added to this list? I think we can all agree he'll be playing the big leagues sometime next year, so why not this year? Robin Yount played as an 18 year old, why can't Chourio as a 19 year old? I think it's at least worth the discussion. If he gets called up, you move Yelich to a full time DH role, and that problem is solved. We saw the fever pitch excitement for Frelick's first game, can you imagine what Chourio's first game would be like?

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    damuelle
  • Brewer Fanatic Contributor
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    I'm all for in-house solutions by riding the hot hand during the first 3.5 months of the season - e.g. promoting Hiura, Singleton, Toro during their hot streak, rather than waiting until after Singleton has connected on 7 homers in 17 games and acting surprised that he wasn't able to produce by the time they grudgingly got around to promoting him to MLB.

    But to me, that period has passed. Now's the time to get serious and pony up for an impact bat, learning from the failures of 2014 (Morneau - why not Morneau?), 2020 (anyone, God help us) and 2022 (Merrifield at least, I beg you).

    Even if a Hiura, Voit, Singleton, Almonte, Toro, Mathias, Alvarez, etc. is actually given the chance to play in MLB during a hot streak, they're all AAAA guys who can't be expected to perform at even replacement level when it really counts in late September and October, in my opinion.

    Pay up Mr. Attanasio. Let's go!!!

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    53 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

    Taylor bats right-handed and could be used to rest Yelich, Mitchell, and Frelick in 2024. He's also been productive vs. lefties in the past.

    Frelick-Mitchell-Wiemer as starters with Taylor 4th OF and Yelich as DH/5th OF is an excellent setup to have for that year, and doesn't break the budget. Gives Chourio the full 2024 season and most of 2025 at Nashville to develop.

    This timeline is so incredibly off for Chourio. He’s going to be in the MLB far sooner than mid-season 2025

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    Jake McKibbin
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    10 minutes ago, shanedog19 said:

    Shouldn't Chourio be added to this list? I think we can all agree he'll be playing the big leagues sometime next year, so why not this year? Robin Yount played as an 18 year old, why can't Chourio as a 19 year old? I think it's at least worth the discussion. If he gets called up, you move Yelich to a full time DH role, and that problem is solved. We saw the fever pitch excitement for Frelick's first game, can you imagine what Chourio's first game would be like?

    You want your 6/7 years of chourio I think to be when he's ready, and he's shown enough of a weakness with swinging outside the zone on pitches and making weak contact with the tacky balls (Which are similar to MLB levels of pitching movement) that he's not ready yet to contribute, but he's definitely definitely getting there

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    If they are still trying to trade Hiura or use as a fallback option if everything fall through I still think they should DFA Winker and bring up Toro for the next week or so. They would still have the ability to option Toro if the acquire a bat or two at the deadline. He has been hot and can be a short term fix.

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    clancyphile
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    1 hour ago, Jake McKibbin said:

    It's unlikely at this point that Chourio won't be playing sometime next year, he's clearly making big strides and even going slowly probably means July/August next year barring injury. I can't see Taylor being retained just to keep Chourio as a prospect for the sake of it

    Chourio is still showing some holes in his swing. With Frelick-Mitchell-Wiemer as starters, Taylor and Perkins competing as 4th OF for the Crew, and Yelich as a corner OF/DH/1B option, why not have him improve his pitch selection/OBP skills in Nashville in 2024 and 2025?

    We saw what happened with Jimmy Nelson in 2019 when the Crew put him in MLB when he should have been optioned to AAA to start the year after his lengthy absence due to that shoulder injury. It was a mistake then, the Crew burned up service time that they didn't need to.

    The smart move is to have Chourio resolve those issues in Nashville. The Brewers don't need to add him to the 40-man until 2025, they have three cheap rookies and multiple solid backups, and Chourio will have three option years when he is added. 

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    8 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

    Chourio is still showing some holes in his swing. With Frelick-Mitchell-Wiemer as starters, Taylor and Perkins competing as 4th OF for the Crew, and Yelich as a corner OF/DH/1B option, why not have him improve his pitch selection/OBP skills in Nashville in 2024 and 2025?

    We saw what happened with Jimmy Nelson in 2019 when the Crew put him in MLB when he should have been optioned to AAA to start the year after his lengthy absence due to that shoulder injury. It was a mistake then, the Crew burned up service time that they didn't need to.

    The smart move is to have Chourio resolve those issues in Nashville. The Brewers don't need to add him to the 40-man until 2025, they have three cheap rookies and multiple solid backups, and Chourio will have three option years when he is added. 

    I'll tell you what, over the past month, Chourio hasn't been showing many holes in his swing...

    Unless his development stunts significantly over the next year, there's no way he's spending two whole years in Nashville. He might very well end up in Nashville by the end of the year. 

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    I mostly agree with this take except for the 1B/DH problem. We don't have any long term answers there. If we play guys like Caratini, Toro, Miller there it feels like we are just giving up on 2023 and auditioning for 2024. I guess Hiura could be a long term answer there but Hiura alone fixing our 1B/DH problem again just feels like auditioning for 2024. Maybe he can be part of the solution but they need another guy to have a hope for 2023.

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    clancyphile
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    3 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

    I'll tell you what, over the past month, Chourio hasn't been showing any holes in his swing...

    Unless his development stunts significantly over the next year, there's no way he's spending two whole years in Nashville. He might very well end up in Nashville by the end of the year. 

    Here are the numbers that have me wanting to slow down a little: 86 BB to 251 K in 1,025 at-bats over his pro career.

    The walk rate is still low, and he's striking out almost three times for every walk. I'd like to see the walk rate get closer to 10% and to see the pitch selection improve and cut the strikeouts down some.

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    7 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

    Here are the numbers that have me wanting to slow down a little: 86 BB to 251 K in 1,025 at-bats over his pro career.

    The walk rate is still low, and he's striking out almost three times for every walk. I'd like to see the walk rate get closer to 10% and to see the pitch selection improve and cut the strikeouts down some.

    9% K rate in July......403/.431/.694

    And you're not talking about slowing down a little. You're talking about grinding to a halt. 

     

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    6 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

    Here are the numbers that have me wanting to slow down a little: 86 BB to 251 K in 1,025 at-bats over his pro career.

    The walk rate is still low, and he's striking out almost three times for every walk. I'd like to see the walk rate get closer to 10% and to see the pitch selection improve and cut the strikeouts down some.

    Have you just not been paying attention? He’s dramatically improved everything you say he needs to improve. His K-rate over his last 200 PA is 16%

     

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    2 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

    9% K rate in July......403/.431/.694

    And you're not talking about slowing down a little. You're talking about grinding to a halt. 

     

    LOL. I just shared the exact same tweet you did 

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    Jake McKibbin
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    2 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

    Have you just not been paying attention? He’s dramatically improved everything you say he needs to improve. His K-rate over his last 200 PA is 16%

     

    Yeah even before this current hot patch he was striking out far less, but just making poor quality contact. The next stage seems to be knowing which pitches to take and which ones he's doing damage on to increase the regularity of AB's ending in quality contact. EDlC did this in a month, I don't think it'll take too long to refine his approach and his contact ability is way past Elly's. He's actually increased his floor massively with this, given that oppo power, can you imagine only striking out 15-16% of the time? Good lord

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    Jake McKibbin
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    2 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

    9% K rate in July......403/.431/.694

    And you're not talking about slowing down a little. You're talking about grinding to a halt. 

     

    The whiff rate of 18% is very very promising... We might also not see any walks if he keeps hitting as well as he has, it seems anything in zone is getting crushed, no chance for a deep count

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