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    One More Look Back on the NLCS, with Three Burning Brewers Questions

    It's difficult to predict any mix of strategy and fortunate circumstances that might have given the Brewers a shot at the NL crown, but it's always good to see what might have made a greater impact.

    Tim Muma
    Image courtesy of © Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

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    After a few days to decompress from the Milwaukee Brewers’ four-game disposal in the NLCS, there are still a few questions to explore before turning the page.

    Did Pat Murphy’s incessant praise of the Los Angeles Dodgers and consistent dismissal of his own team become too much for some players to overcome?
    Those who followed the Brewers all season know that Murphy played the underdog card all season, even as Milwaukee shot up the standings. He definitely gave tons of praise to his players throughout the year, too, talking about their resiliency, their unique talents, and how they all come together to win as a team, rather than having a bunch of individual stars. Based on preseason expectations and the eventual results, it seemed to work well.
     
    But after knocking off the Chicago Cubs in the NLDS and jumping right into media conversations ahead of the Brewers’ date with the Dodgers, the messaging from Murphy began to feel over-the-top. On the American Family Field turf following NLDS Game 5, Murphy was already saying, “I don’t know how many of our guys would make their team...”
     
    Of course, he did continue by saying, “...but it ain’t about that. It’s about how we come together as a team to compete.” Well, good cover, but that was an extremely strong statement that might have hit some Brewers in the gut a bit. Some of the other pointed comments by Murphy included:
     
    • "I’m sure most Dodger players can’t name eight guys on our roster."
    • "They’re probably better at almost every position than us."
    • "We don’t have the big-name payroll, we don’t have the big-name stars, although some are becoming recognizable."
    • "Snell makes more money than our entire pitching staff, and it’s for good reason."

    Even if every word was true, that doesn’t mean your players want to hear it from their leader—especially on the brink of the World Series. At that point, does it even matter? You can say professional athletes shouldn’t be affected by comments like these, but they’re still human. Most had never been in this moment, and everyone understood the mountain ahead.
     
    Their manager essentially framed the Dodgers as a team they were lucky just to compete against—a star-studded powerhouse almost beyond reach. Maybe the mindset that worked across 162 games had the opposite effect when everything was on the line. In baseball, the mental game is enormous. Just because you can’t quantify it doesn’t mean it isn’t real.
     
    Why didn’t the Brewers try to bunt for any hits with such a struggling offense?
    When you finish the NLCS with a .118 batting average and an 8 wRC+ (EIGHT!), you have to question bashing your head against the wall and doing (more or less) the same thing all series. The Brewers led MLB in bunt hits during the regular season, and that could have been a viable weapon against a group of pitchers who were shutting down the Brewers’ offense.
     
    If Hall of Famer Paul Molitor, a career .306 hitter over 21 seasons with 3,319 career hits (11th all time), would drop down bunts when he was scuffling at the dish, certainly a bunch of “Average Joes” can do it with a chance to reach the World Series. While Andrew Vaughn was one of the egregiously poor hitters in the NLCS (0-for-12), he can be excused thanks to his lack of speed. The other four culprits don’t really have an alibi.
     
    Christian Yelich, Brice Turang, Sal Frelick and Joey Ortiz combined to go 3-for-49 (.061) in the NLCS, a stunning lack of production. Yet, to my recollection, not one attempted a bunt for hit. Sure, some guys would “show” bunt at the start of an at-bat, but those weren’t real attempts. Teams don’t see it as much as they used to, and certainly don’t practice the various locations players can drop bunts down, so the opportunities were there. Admittedly, the Dodgers infield played great defense throughout the set, but Milwaukee could have put more pressure on them.
     
    No one is claiming bunt singles would have flipped the entire series, but maybe you steal a game and change the trajectory. Even a failed bunt attempt can serve a purpose. For some hitters, it helps reset their timing by forcing them to track the ball to the bat. With runners on, it forces movement and increases the odds of a defensive mistake. Simply showing the threat of a bunt can alter defensive positioning, potentially opening up a hole later.

    That’s why refusing to even attempt a bunt during a historically awful offensive stretch feels like a glaring missed opportunity. If you’re truly using every tool at your disposal to keep your season alive, why leave a proven one untouched as everything slips away?
     
    Did the Brewers’ pitching plans create a net positive or negative in the NLCS?
    There’s no doubt that Murphy and his staff were trying to squeeze every ounce of leverage they could out of their pitchers and maximize matchups to handle the Dodgers’ potent lineup. Some people loathe the use of openers, though there are times they make complete sense, especially in a postseason series where every pitch feels like the one that could crush your hopes.
     
    In the short term, which is all we can go by since the series ended in four games, the special gambit paid off. Looking at the big picture, the Brewers’ pitching staff held Los Angeles to two and three runs in a pair of games, and then five runs in the other pair. That’s strong work against a lineup loaded with proven All-Star and Hall-of-Fame talent. Ironically, the two traditional starts pitchers made (by Freddy Peralta and Jose Quintana) came in the two games that yielded the most runs. Both Peralta and Quintana gave up three runs in their starts, though the latter only lasted two frames in Game 4.

    For the most part, the horde of relievers did their jobs to keep Milwaukee in each game. Unfortunately, the offense never took advantage. Jacob Misiorowski was phenomenal, and some might still question if he should have started Game 3 instead of following opener Aaron Ashby, who was pitching for the fifth time in eight days. Ashby gave up a run two batters into the contest and pitched only one-third of an inning.
     
    Had the NLCS reached Game 5 or 6, the bullpen usage and non-traditional starts might have further caught up with the Brewers’ hurlers. Abner Uribe already looked to be on fumes, and Chad Patrick (who was dominant in the NLDS) showed a few more signs of being human in the NLCS. The early decisions might also have limited the Brewers' options throughout each game to adjust to certain matchups and situations. Either way, it would have been nice to see how it would have all played out.
     
    The Brandon Woodruff injury threw things off, and Quinn Priester’s shakiness added to the need to use openers and bullpen days. No one is blaming the pitching for the team getting swept, but if the Brewers reach the postseason again next season, relying on starting pitchers more often could make the difference—not that anyone has the perfect formula in October.

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    Don’t see any of the 3 criticism’s being valid. 

    Really don’t think anything Murphy said made a bit of difference to the team’s performance or lack there of in the box. He didn’t say anything different than what he said all year long.

    Not bunting? Bunting is hard enough to do successfully against average to good pitching, but the stuff and command the Dodgers starters threw at MKE was otherworldly. 

    Brewers did what they had to do pitching-wise to try to stay in these ballgames. Having only 2 stretched out starters put them in a difficult position. I promise you this team’s desire to have more starter depth moving-forward just went up ten-fold.

    The Dodgers’ pitchers rose to the moment. I’d argue that Snell, Yamamoto, and Ohtani (offense included) had 95th percentile or better games. Glasnow was probably 80th percentile. 
    Certainly, the Crew’s offensive approach has to be considered in those pitcher outcomes, but the way those guys were placing pitches and not throwing waste pitches was surgical. 
    Put together some squishy math on three 95th percentile outcomes and one 80th percentile and you’re looking at a 1 in 40,000 probability of that sort of confluence of pitching excellence. 
    If you’re willing to call Snell, Yoshi, and Ohtani’s starts 99th percentile games, then you’re quickly looking at a 1 in a million outcome for the Dodgers. 
    Their pitchers just rose to the moment in a collective fashion that is wildly improbable, and the Brewer hitters couldn’t match it. 

    • Like 2
    Tim Muma
  • Brewer Fanatic Contributor
  • Posted

    38 minutes ago, SF70 said:

    Don’t see any of the 3 criticism’s being valid. 

    Really don’t think anything Murphy said made a bit of difference to the team’s performance or lack there of in the box. He didn’t say anything different than what he said all year long.

    Not bunting? Bunting is hard enough to do successfully against average to good pitching, but the stuff and command the Dodgers starters threw at MKE was otherworldly. 

    Brewers did what they had to do pitching-wise to try to stay in these ballgames. Having only 2 stretched out starters put them in a difficult position. I promise you this team’s desire to have more starter depth moving-forward just went up ten-fold.

    First, I do appreciate you reading the piece. If you want to disagree, I have no problem with that. I'm not even committing 100% to saying things were bad or played a role. But to say these things aren't valid is either disingenuous or flat out dismissive. Your team, with the best record in baseball, gets swept. I think many questions are valid and worth examining, even if you think in the end, it's nothing.

    1) I often look at things from a coaching/managing perspective from my own experiences and countless convos I've had with coaches. Managing the mental side of players is non-stop and important. It's why college and pro teams have access to sports psychologists. There are fine lines with motivation and encouragement and every aspect of managing athletes. 

    Continuously bringing up how your team/players don't match to to your opponent is shaky ground, IMO. There is such a thing as self-fulfilling prophesy. Or...maybe some players tried "harder" to show they belonged or pressed more than they would - both often a negative in baseball. Some may have had doubts about themselves. We won't even know, but I was personally tired of Murphy, each time he spoke before/during the series, bringing up something about the Dodgers superiority to the Brewers.

    2) Yeah...bunting is difficult. So is trying to hit said pitchers - obviously. I'm sorry, but if you're 0-for-8, your team is hitting under .100 and you decide to just "keep grinding," it's foolish. 

    "Here's something we were good at all season, a season in which we used speed and chaos to help us earn the best record in baseball and franchise history. Let's just never try it, even though we can't get a hit to save our lives." It just doesn't make sense to me. And again, even the actual threat of a bunt or just getting out down, even if you're out, can have other effects. But sure, keep swinging and praying.

    3) I'l give you the pitching is in the most of a stretch. As I noted in the article, no one is blaming the pitching for the sweep. I still thing it's worth questioning in how it might have impacted certain situations, such as Uribe allowing that second run in Game 1 or how saving Ashby for a middle inning, and starting Miz instead, might have made things different. So valid? I think so. Agree with it? Meh...just a question.

    • Like 1

    I was pretty checked out during the NLCS so I wasn't aware of Murphy's comments. I like Murphy, I think he is a great motivator of people. Those comments go too far, I agree. There's a fine between creating underdog persona and demoralizing. I think he crossed it. 

    • Love 1

    100% agree on point #1.  In my profession I coach others also competing in high leverage situations, and they need to go into the moment not just with top level preparation, but with the absolute belief that they have the ability to achieve at their highest level in the crucial moment. Self doubt is for the preparation stage, which forces them to identify and then work to improve their shortcomings. When it’s go time, they need to have bullet proof confidence in their capability

    • Love 1
    Tim Muma
  • Brewer Fanatic Contributor
  • Posted

    25 minutes ago, Bassball said:

    100% agree on point #1.  In my profession I coach others also competing in high leverage situations, and they need to go into the moment not just with top level preparation, but with the absolute belief that they have the ability to achieve at their highest level in the crucial moment. Self doubt is for the preparation stage, which forces them to identify and then work to improve their shortcomings. When it’s go time, they need to have bullet proof confidence in their capability

    I hear ya. One of my favorite quick lines to use with my players as a reminder of their mindset is:

    "Practice like you're the worst player in the state. Play like you're the best!"

    So, speaks similarly to your note of the self-doubt in preparation to work on their weaknesses, but when it's go time, no one is better. Obviously, some players need more/less mental training. 

    • Like 1

    I mainly fault two strategies for our playoff problems. In the NLDS Murphy used the wrong pitcher rotation. Preister should have started the 2nd game. Peralta should have pitched  the fifth, with an extra days rest and at home. 
    I never thought we could win the NLDS. It was basically an All Star team versus an excellent regular team. I think they could have won  one or two games if they had extended at bats that forced the starters out, but that’s hard to do when the pitchers are living in the strike zone. 
    I don’t see the Brewers ever winning a World Series with Yelich as the DH. If he’s having back problems he should retire. 

    • Like 1

    I don't think #1 was a factor, but it was also overplayed. Roberts called Murph out on it at some point, basically saying that was his shtick but of course the Dodgers know who all their players are. Which is obviously true - it's one thing to say that Japanese media don't know who Brewers are, it's another thing to say a team that you beat 6 times in the regular season don't know who you are. That's ridiculous. I bet every major leaguer can recognize by name 90% of the other players.



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