Robert Gasser's Balky Elbow: Is It Time To Hit The Panic Button On The Brewers Rotation?

It has been a difficult season for Brewers starters, to say the very least. Their combined ERA of 4.11 is 17th in MLB, but more importantly, the team currently has five names from the rotation on the injured list: DL Hall (15-day, knee), Jakob Junis (60-day, shoulder), Joe Ross (15-day, back), Brandon Woodruff (60-day, shoulder), and Wade Miley (60-day, elbow). Now, they may soon have a sixth.

Since making his major-league debut on May 10, Robert Gasser has a 2.57 ERA over 28 innings pitched. Great stuff from the lefty rookie so far, but it seems his campaign may suffer a substantial disruption. On Jun. 3, manager Pat Murphy stated that Gasser was dealing with some tightness and soreness in his elbow, and would be taking a closer look to make sure there wasn’t any serious damage. The next day, Murphy said that Gasser may miss time but that the first MRI looked encouraging. The team will continue examining his elbow, but given the nature of this issue and the risk of sending him back out there with any lingering doubt, it seems likely Gasser will spend at least some time on the injured list.

What should we make of this? Does this mean the rotation is doomed, with three skull emojis? One major impact of these constant injuries is the disproportionate amount of responsibility being placed on the bullpen. The Brewers rank dead last in the number of innings pitched by starters, at 285, 14 fewer than the 29th-ranked Giants. They've gotten a good look at life on the other end of the street this week, as the Phillies currently lead MLB with 368 ⅓ innings pitched by starters.

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For more on the Brewers' pitching staff management and the way they balance starters' and relievers' duties, see Matthew Trueblood's piece last week.

Consequently, Milwaukee relievers have pitched 256 ⅓ innings, nearly the same as the rotation. In 2023, starters pitched a whopping 877 ⅓ innings for the Crew, while the bullpen handled just 565 ⅔. With just over 100 games to go, relievers have already accumulated nearly half the total workload as last year. One could argue that this may be good, since facing a parade of high-powered, diverse relievers can be tricky for opposing batters, but a lack of healthy, rested late-inning arms can also be disastrous.

Furthermore, while the team might be able to skirt by for the remainder of the regular season on the strength of their stellar offense and relatively weak division opponents, a rotation in poor health is a recipe for playoff disaster. Freddy Peralta and Colin Rea have pitched well thus far, but regression may be coming soon--especially for Rea, whose FIP is an entire run higher than his current ERA. Even if they don't regress, are those two enough to lead the team through a playoff series in a very competitive National League?

Not all is lost, of course. Before you fall to your knees and begin to weep uncontrollably while donning the vintage Don Money jersey your strange uncle passed down to you before he switched to being a cricket fan, there are a few bright spots on the horizon.

First, Joe Ross is set to return around mid-June. He’ll soon begin his rehab assignment with the Nashville Sounds in Triple-A, and is slated to throw a bullpen this weekend. He hasn’t been great, but he also only made nine starts before taking time off, so maybe he comes back healthier and more effective. It has also been three years since his last major-league season, so it should be expected that he’ll take time to reach his final form.

Second, although DL Hall injured his knee recently during his own minor-league rehab assignment, there's some tentatively encouraging news there, too. He’s getting his knee examined more closely by Dr. Neal ElAttrache, an orthopedic surgeon well-known for his work with athletes, and ElAttrache has said that based on preliminary scans, his MCL is intact. Before tweaking his knee again, things seemed good while pitching in Triple-A. 

Third, Jakob Junis has also begun his own rehab assignment, pitching two innings with three strikeouts and allowing no baserunners. He’ll need some time and might be used in a multi-inning relief role, rather than as a starter, but his recovery is progressing pretty smoothly, all things considered.

Even if Gasser does end up missing time, it might not be very long. It seems more like a precautionary measure, and taking early action can help prevent future issues. We’ve yet to find out exactly what the extent of his elbow problems are, but for now, remember that not all hope is yet lost. Milwaukee has hobbled their way to a 36-25 record, six games ahead of the Cubs, and are given a 65.9% chance to win the division by FanGraphs. Despite these challenging times, the team has found a way to win, and who’s to say it won’t stay that way?