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  • The Brewers Should Gamble on a DH Who Actually Hits


    Tim Muma

    Even with the acquisition of Carlos Santana, it's time for the Milwaukee Brewers to take a risk to grab a true power bat. GM Matt Arnold recently stated they want to maintain their run prevention strategy, potentially limiting the talent pool for adding offense. However, they've been willing to carry a "DH-only" who can't hit, so they should be thrilled to acquire a primary DH who can produce runs.

    Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

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    With the 41-62 Chicago White Sox trading away Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez on Wednesday, the Southsiders are open for business. And while the Brewers could target a few of Chicago's relievers at the trade deadline, rolling the dice on the oft-injured Eloy Jimenez is the aggressive move they should explore. According to longtime Chicago baseball reporter Bruce Levine on Thursday, the Brewers have already contacted the White Sox about Jimenez's availability. 

    After bursting on the scene in 2019 with 31 home runs in 122 games, Jimenez's problem has been staying on the field. The 26-year-old is hitting .286/.330/.485/.815 (121 OPS+) in 285 plate appearances, playing in just 68 of the club's 103 contests. Last season, Jimenez posted a 141 OPS+ with a .358 OBP and .500 SLG across 84 games. Again, terrific rate stats, but a lot of missed time. But if you're the Brewers, looking at the collective DH "production" should be enough to gamble.

    Milwaukee's DH statistics and MLB ranking through July 26:

    • AVG: .210 (28th)
    • OBP: .305 (20th)
    • SLG: .317 (29th)
    • OPS: .621 (29th)
    • wRC: 23 (30th)
    • wOBA: .254 (30th)

    The Brewers have also gotten just seven homers from the DH role, better only than the Detroit Tigers (4). Jesse Winker has taken 42 percent of the plate appearances at DH, but it's been a black hole except when Christian Yelich or William Contreras held down the spot.

    Jimenez has been healthy and hot since the All-Star break. In his last nine contests, Jimenez owns a .387/.441/.581/1.022 line, though the Sox have lost five in a row. His last IL stint came in early June with nagging leg soreness, the most common reason Jimenez has missed time in his career. Thus, the best thing a team can do is keep him in the DH role. With the Brewers' glutton of outfielders, there's no reason that would be a problem in Milwaukee.

    Figuring out what the White Sox would want in return becomes the more significant challenge. Jimenez is a tricky asset to evaluate. When he is healthy, he's a valuable middle-of-the-order run producer. However, he has not played in more than 84 games in a season since 2019, and rarely playing in the field limits his value. His contract creates even more uncertainty. 

    Jimenez is set to make about $13.8 million next season, which is hardly noteworthy for one year. But he also has a team option for $16.5 million in 2025 and $18.5 million in 2026, both with a $3 million buyout. So it gives the club plenty of flexibility over the next few years. If Jimenez is healthy and smashing the ball in his age 27-29 seasons, he's easily worth it. If the production dips or the injuries are too much, the team can bail for a drop in the bucket. But again, that causes some problems in determining what the Brewers should give up for his services, which could be for one, two, or three additional seasons.

    These are the same reasons Chicago might balk at making a deal unless Milwaukee blows them away. Of course, the Chicago front office says they are looking to compete in 2024, but how can they think they will turn around a team - currently 21 games under .500 - in one season? They're losing multiple veterans, have seen a decline in others, and appear to have their competitive window closing from their recent rebuild. They have some younger guys to build around with Luis Robert Jr. as the centerpiece, but they would be wise to plan a soft, quick reboot over the next two or three seasons.

    So what would the White Sox accept? They likely would be interested in middle infielders and pitching (because you always need pitching). Chicago also has very few intriguing outfield prospects do develop over over the next few seasons. Because of Jimenez's injury risk and lack of position, the Brewers probably aren't giving up any of their top guys. And as always, we don't know how Milwaukee's front office views its own players or who the White Sox might desire.

    Brewers send:

    • Outfielder Hendry Mendez (#13 in the Brewers' system)
      • He is just 19 years old in High-A with a solid hit tool (55-grade).
      • Contact skill is his primary offensive weapon, but with a 6-foot-2 frame, some power could develop.
    • Shortstop Freddy Zamora (#20)
      • He is more advanced than the White Sox middle infield prospects.
      • He could be ready for MLB in 2024 with his strong defense and good contact skills.
    • Outfielder Jace Avina (#23)
      • Rated with plus-plus power (60-grade), it would be an intriguing draw to the White Sox.
      • He's just 20 years old and at least three years away from a shot in MLB.
    • Right-handed pitcher Joseph Hernandez (#25)
      • Known for a wicked slider, he's had solid success at the Single-A and High-A levels as a starter.
      • Some say the 23-year-old is destined for the bullpen, where the slider can dominate righties.

    So, what do you think about making this deal? Are you even interested in Jimenez? Is this too much to give up or too little to entice Chicago? From the Brewers' perspective, the various ways you could handle Jimenez in future years (keep him, buy him out, or trade him again) can limit the risk more than a typical trade.

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    This is the right level of prospect package I would be willing to give up for him.   I think with his injury history and expensive contract, his value might be a bit surpressed, so getting anything sniffing a Top 100 list is a huge stretch.

     

    Nice review!

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    This was in the Trade Forum earlier; it won’t happen for a number of reasons:

    1.) Unless they’re doing a complete tear down, why would the White Sox move Jimenez—26 year old clean up hitter under team control for three more years?

    2.) True, every player is available for the right price. But those Brewer farmhands referenced wouldn’t constitute an offer that’s “too good to be true”

    3.) Everything the Brewers GM has said, and they way they’ve worked the deadline the last 5-6 years indicates the Brewers simply don’t trade the type of prospects necessary to land young controllable talent.

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    I think the White Sox would want Robert Gasser. They need 2024 cheap rotation help bad. They only have two pitchers in next years rotation atm in cease and kopech. They are a team that will refuse to spend big on starting pitching and go more with the brewers late 2000s early 2010s approach. Suppans, lohses, garzas of the world. If Eloy didn’t get hurt all the time I would really consider that. 

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    Tim Muma
  • Brewer Fanatic Contributor
  • Posted

    12 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

    This was in the Trade Forum earlier; it won’t happen for a number of reasons:

    1.) Unless they’re doing a complete tear down, why would the White Sox move Jimenez—26 year old clean up hitter under team control for three more years?

    2.) True, every player is available for the right price. But those Brewer farmhands referenced wouldn’t constitute an offer that’s “too good to be true”

    3.) Everything the Brewers GM has said, and they way they’ve worked the deadline the last 5-6 years indicates the Brewers simply don’t trade the type of prospects necessary to land young controllable talent.

    I agree this isn't a "too good to be true" offer and a deal isn't "likely"; however, Jimenez's value is lessened due to his injury history and being a DH who can occasionally play the outfield. And like noted, the contract structure makes it tough to figure out - from both ends - what makes the most sense for the clubs.

    Many times a team that has an oft-injured player gets frustrated because they have invested in him and he's just not reliable. A new team that has a true need in that area (offense) might be more willing to take a chance and have their own way to keep him healthy.

    Like I said, I was sort of thinking about his as an option, but wasn't sold. When I heard Bruce Levine specifically mention the Brewers talking to the Sox about him, it felt legit enough to discuss.

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    27 minutes ago, Tim Muma said:

    I agree this isn't a "too good to be true" offer and a deal isn't "likely"; however, Jimenez's value is lessened due to his injury history and being a DH who can occasionally play the outfield. And like noted, the contract structure makes it tough to figure out - from both ends - what makes the most sense for the clubs.

    Many times a team that has an oft-injured player gets frustrated because they have invested in him and he's just not reliable. A new team that has a true need in that area (offense) might be more willing to take a chance and have their own way to keep him healthy.

    Like I said, I was sort of thinking about his as an option, but wasn't sold. When I heard Bruce Levine specifically mention the Brewers talking to the Sox about him, it felt legit enough to discuss.

    I had no clue someone actually reported that we inquired on Jimenez. That’s really cool if true. That would be a big time trade. I genuinely have no clue on his trade value though because of the injuries, him only being a DH, and the contract being fair but not anything too special. 

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    23 minutes ago, Tim Muma said:

    I agree this isn't a "too good to be true" offer and a deal isn't "likely"; however, Jimenez's value is lessened due to his injury history and being a DH who can occasionally play the outfield. And like noted, the contract structure makes it tough to figure out - from both ends - what makes the most sense for the clubs.

    Many times a team that has an oft-injured player gets frustrated because they have invested in him and he's just not reliable. A new team that has a true need in that area (offense) might be more willing to take a chance and have their own way to keep him healthy.

    Like I said, I was sort of thinking about his as an option, but wasn't sold. When I heard Bruce Levine specifically mention the Brewers talking to the Sox about him, it felt legit enough to discuss.

    I get it, but the White Sox tanked for years to put this group together, won their Division in 2021 since then poor managerial choices and injuries have derailed them. The more realistic scenario is they try to retool around the core they have and give it another go in ‘24 especially when they play in the weakest Division in the American League. 

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    Tim Muma
  • Brewer Fanatic Contributor
  • Posted

    10 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

    I had no clue someone actually reported that we inquired on Jimenez. That’s really cool if true. That would be a big time trade. I genuinely have no clue on his trade value though because of the injuries, him only being a DH, and the contract being fair but not anything too special. 

    Yeah, I hear ya. Just in looking at their roster...I just don't see how they will have more/better talent next year to turn around a team that currently is 20 games under .500. I suppose you can make the argument they are in the worst division in baseball, so that helps give them hope. Again, I doubt it happens, too...but short of giving up too much prospect capital for someone like Juan Soto, it was the most impactful bat I could see as an option.

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    Tim Muma
  • Brewer Fanatic Contributor
  • Posted

    For anyone interested, I found the blurb from Bruce Levine on 670 the Score out of Chicago. It's just a quick mention, but I found it interesting that he noted it specifically. Listen at the 7:55 mark to start.

    https://www.audacy.com/podcast/mully-haugh-show-4bf26/episodes/bruce-levine-whats-next-for-the-cubs-white-sox-e8860?action=AUTOPLAY_FULL&actionContentId=201-38cf1305-4713-452e-806e-eec6295d1c04

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    I don't know or care who the article is suggesting but I wish the front office would read the headline and go, "Hey, there's an idea we haven't thought of before. Let's give it a try."

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    I had EBJ and Lauer going to the White Sox in the Trade Forum. They can say they got a top prospect and a starting pitcher that has had recent success. 

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    22 minutes ago, wallus said:

    I had EBJ and Lauer going to the White Sox in the Trade Forum. They can say they got a top prospect and a starting pitcher that has had recent success. 

    If that is all it would take, then giddy up.  If that were true, though, I think it would have happened already, which means the Chi Sox want quite a bit more than that.

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    2 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

    1.) Unless they’re doing a complete tear down, why would the White Sox move Jimenez—26 year old clean up hitter under team control for three more years?

    Because he is a DH and they have a cheaper version with Burger who they are trying to fit into the lineup everyday.  The problem with the White Sox is that they have a bunch of DH/1B playing the field in Burger, Jimenez, Vaughn and Sheets.  At some point you have to get better defensively otherwise all that offense is wasted.  They have Burger for two more years under pre arbitration and he doesn't hit arbitration until 2026. 

    If the White Sox can get some pitching and a better defender back in return for Jimenez for '24 it makes sense to trade Jimenez who would bring back a good pitching prospect along with a good positional prospect. 

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    4 hours ago, nate82 said:

    Because he is a DH and they have a cheaper version with Burger who they are trying to fit into the lineup everyday.  The problem with the White Sox is that they have a bunch of DH/1B playing the field in Burger, Jimenez, Vaughn and Sheets.  At some point you have to get better defensively otherwise all that offense is wasted.  They have Burger for two more years under pre arbitration and he doesn't hit arbitration until 2026. 

    If the White Sox can get some pitching and a better defender back in return for Jimenez for '24 it makes sense to trade Jimenez who would bring back a good pitching prospect along with a good positional prospect. 

     

    Trading, your clean up hitter for prospects and trying to win as many games as possible in 2024 are seemingly opposite things. 
     

    Further. I would dispute the notion that Burger is a cheaper version of Jimenez, maybe in that they’re not good defenders but Burger is actually older than Eloy and hasn’t been as good in his career up to now as Jimenez. 

    Maybe in the next 72 hours the Sox pull the plug on the Jimenez, Moancada, Anderson, Vaughn, Burger,  Kopech, Cease, Hendriks etc group, then of course  all bets are off. 

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    I think the deal proposed is a bit much for 1.3 seasons of control of an oft injured DH only player gauranted nearly $20 M over that span. The additional $31 M for the 2 option years doesn't add any additional value to a trade. It's not a horrible overpay, so I could live with it.

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    They’d ask for gasser but I’d counter with Mitchell.  Oft injured proven player for an oft injured high ceiling as the centerpiece.       You could then add lauer, Henry and maybe hiura to free him from purgatory. Eloy should be our top target.  

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