The Giants and Yankees May Go Big in Pursuit of Corbin Burnes

Such a highly prized catch as Burnes is expected to have a remarkably low salary in the $16 million range, increasing his value to potential suitors, something that couldn’t be said of recent Dodgers acquisition Tyler Glasnow. The Brewers will likely want a return involving at least one high-ceiling pitcher, though the farm systems of the big markets aren't quite as high-end as they may like, providing a potential deterrent. Burnes may also be more open to a long-term deal after a front-row seat to the Brandon Woodruff saga, which increases his potential attractiveness. However, Scott Boras's clients usually go to free agency. 

New York Yankees
The Yankees invested heavily in acquiring Juan Soto from the Padres, who did a raid on several high-upside arms that the Brewers may have had their eyes on. In acquiring Soto, with just 2024 remaining before hitting free agency, the organization has signaled its intention to compete on a higher level than they’ve managed in the past few years. After Carlos Rodon’s signing went horribly in 2023, they need a pitcher to follow on from Gerrit Cole, and there’s no better candidate than Corbin Burnes.

Chase Hampton, their number 5 prospect, would have to head the Yankees package. Hampton is a right-handed pitcher at Double A with a high spin rate fastball in the 91-95 mph range that plays at least plus, touching 98 mph on occasion. The feel for spin extends to his breaking pitches with high potential and movement on his curveball and slider, which could lead to him being a strong number two starter. Since turning pro, he has also added a cutter into the mix. A solid frame at 6’2" and 220 lbs, Hampton struggled a little at Double A this season but produced a 3.63 ERA in 106 ⅔ innings over 20 starts. Scouts put his struggles down to sequencing more than anything and believes he’ll move quickly in 2024, but his stuff is electric. The Yankees are high on Will Warren, too, so it’s not decimating their pitching pipeline.

The issue after Hampton for the Yankees is the dominant outfield talent, while the Brewers may be looking more for middle infielders in a trade. The Brewers may also want Luis Gil, a high-upside pitcher who looked good in 2021 before needing Tommy John surgery at the beginning of 2022 with 38 strikeouts in 29 ⅓ innings and a 3.07 ERA. Gil has undoubted quality in his raw stuff, averaging almost 97 mph with the fastball and a wipeout slider that hitters flailing all ends up. 

There may be other bits in the trade, but expect these two to be the primary part of a significant switch. There may be other pitchers, including Will Warren, who pitched to a solid 3.61 ERA in Triple A and has a nasty slider. The Yankees can’t afford to bring in Soto and no one else; they need to bolster their rotation, which will exact a high toll.

San Francisco Giants
An element of concern is beginning to circulate over whether high-quality players want to sign long-term deals in San Francisco, given the sheer volume of rejections they’ve faced recently. Struggling to compete with the Dodgers in the market for their new Japanese phenoms, the Giants need to make a splash, something the signing of Burnes would accomplish. With a year to showcase the city as something a player will appreciate, this deal could take advantage of a certain desperation. Jung Hoo Lee is unlikely to be the star they crave so that Burnes would be a huge acquisition for fans of this ancient franchise, and they have a much better-stocked farm system than the Yankees.

With Kyle Harrison likely off the table, eyes should next turn to Carson Whisenhunt, the Giants' number three prospect (MLB no. 70) with one of the best changeups in the minor leagues. Rising from Low-A to Double-A ball, he had 66 ⅓ innings on the season with a 2.17 ERA, 97 strikeouts, and just 24 walks, mainly brought about by a truly dominant six starts in High A. His changeup produced a swing-and-miss rate of 59% in his 2021 college season and is the highlight of his offerings, playing off his 93-94 mph sinking fastball. Command is key to his success with the fastball, but his development was sadly cut short with an elbow strain in July, thankfully avoiding Tommy John surgery. The Giants have a gluttony of pitching in their top 30 prospects, something the Brewers may find particularly appealing, and with Whisenhunt expected to return in spring training, there is a huge ceiling for him. He needs to develop his frame to add some velocity to the fastball and work on a third offering, but he has all the tools to be an elite starting pitcher.

Alongside Whisenhunt, no. 10 prospect Hayden Birdsong has some intriguing pitches in his arsenal. A 60-grade fastball with supreme movement in the 93-97 mph range combined with an above-average to plus curveball with impressive depth, while he has the makings of a solid changeup, Birdsong has a lot of potential but struggled in Double A to finish 2023. He struck out 172 in 112 ⅓ innings on the season, but the 47 walks hurt him a little. He improved in High A with his control before being promoted aggressively to Double A in August, and the hope is it will continue to develop as he progresses through the system. The raw stuff is there; if the control can be refined, the sky's the limit for Birdsong.

There are likely other pieces to be attached here, and I've suggested high-ceiling players over their more solid counterparts. However, it's worth noting the Giants appear very ready to splurge more than they should, as evidenced by league sentiment over Jung Hoo Lee's contract. The Brewers may get an absolute haul from the Giants, who are close to being able to contend in 2024; Burnes may even push them there on his own.