Why Haven’t the Brewers Done… Anything, This Winter?

We’re a little over two months away from Opening Day. For fans of teams like the Dodgers and Yankees, this offseason has seen a flurry of roster activity and hundreds of millions of dollars spent. For Brewers fans, things have seemed more like taking the 18-hour flight from Singapore to New York without looking at anything except the in-flight safety manual. They have made some notable moves, but not many—and we’d really be stretching the definition of “notable” to include some of these:

• Acquired LHP Nestor Cortes and 2B Caleb Durbin from NYY in exchange for RHP Devin Williams
• Signed LHP Grant Wolfram
• Signed RHP Elvin Rodriguez

Why, exactly, has it been so boring—and more importantly, will it stay that way?

Free Agents Are Never Free
Like most years, the biggest moves involve free agent signings and, like most years, Milwaukee showed no interest in taking part in nine-figure bidding wars. The largest-ever contract in team history that wasn’t an extension is still Lorenzo Cain’s five-year, $80-million deal, which was signed in 2018. Thus, given their enduring frugality and the anticipated decrease in broadcasting revenue, it shouldn’t surprise anyone that the team has abstained from big spending. They probably have a little more room in the budget but it’s not game-changing money, at least not for an MLB team.

This has understandably caused some unrest among team supporters, who can only dream of their beloved Crew shelling out big-market money to acquire top-tier talent. To make matters worse, the NL Central is one of the cheapest divisions in baseball. Per Cot’s Contracts, the projected 2025 payrolls for the cohort are as follows:

Note: The Year End 40-man payroll reflects actual salaries paid out to players each year,f whereas the Competitive Balance Tax payroll is calculated using AAV, bonuses, and other benefits.

• Chicago Cubs
  • Year End 40-man: $179.8 million (13th)
  • Competitive Balance Tax: $197.9 million (14th)
• St. Louis Cardinals
  • Year End 40-man: $146.6 million (16th)
  • Competitive Balance Tax: $163.3 million (16th)
• Milwaukee Brewers
  • Year End 40-man: $108.2 million (22nd)
  • Competitive Balance Tax: $134.9 million (21st)
• Cincinnati Reds
  • Year End 40-man: $104.6 million (24th)
  • Competitive Balance Tax: $125.5 million (24th)
• Pittsburgh Pirates
  • Year End 40-man: $81.6 million (24th)
  • Competitive Balance Tax: $103.6 million (26th)

The Brewers aren’t really incentivized by their peers to spend more, since they’re all on the lower end of spending. The Cubs and Cardinals lead the pack, but given that their attendance numbers are sixth and seventh in MLB respectively, they could probably afford to spend even more than they are. Instead, we have a group of five teams where everyone is waiting for someone else to kick off the spending spree, rather than doing it themselves. Even then, a "spree" in the NL Central is going to feel a lot like "Tuesday" in the AL East. Milwaukee has won the division by wide margins for the past two years, so why work harder if you can work smarter, or cheaper? 

Like Your Local Florist on Valentine’s Day, It’s Slim Pickings
The biggest transactions of late have been centered around starting pitchers and outfielders, areas in which the Brewers already have commendable depth. Free-agent starters have combined for $1.12 billion (and that’s even before Wade Miley signs his inevitable record-breaking contract, with infinite deferrals). Outfielders have been given another $1.01 billion (the lion’s share of this was given to Juan Soto, but still). On the trade front, Kyle Tucker and Garrett Crochet have been the biggest pieces to change uniforms this offseason. You can even throw Jesús Luzardo in there if you’d like. 

You can never have too much talent in the rotation (as clearly shown by the Dodgers), but it’s just not Milwaukee's main focus right now. The more pressing need lies in the infield, more specifically getting a guy with some pop to fill the shoes of Willy Adames. Unfortunately, that’s difficult to find. Here is my list of free agents that both possess that quality and are affordable enough for the Brewers:

• Paul DeJong (kinda?)
• Brendan Rodgers (sorta?)

What about a trade? There were conversations about the Cubs moving Nico Hoerner and he compensates for a lack of home runs with plenty of doubles, but Chicago would never do a deal with their direct competition. Nolan Arenado is way too old and expensive. Alec Bohm hit 44 doubles and 15 home runs last year, but his chances of getting moved have plummeted since the Winter Meetings. 

Long story short, Milwaukee won’t be able to replace a shortstop who hit 33 doubles and 32 home runs on the way to 112 RBIs last year. There’s a chance they can compensate for the lost production with improvements from Rhys Hoskins, who was supposed to be the team’s power bat anyway, but it won’t come from a new face in the lineup.

In my humble opinion, the team will eventually get around to doing something, but don’t expect the needle to be moved by a huge margin. Instead, any forward progress will come from two things: maintaining the health of key players and watching young players continue to improve. 

Before he hit the IL with back problems, Christian Yelich was the best he has been since 2019. He slashed .315/.406/.504 for a 151 OPS+ over the 315 plate appearances he did have, and had he been present for the playoffs, there’s a chance the result would have been very different. On the opposite timeline was Garrett Mitchell, who didn’t return to action until July but ended up slashing .255/.342/.469 for an OPS+ of 123 while playing stellar defense in center field, amassing 6 Defensive Runs Saved. If the Brewers can get both of these guys in the lineup for a whole season, the team’s offensive potential would take a big step forward.

Jackson Chourio was one of the National League’s best rookies last year, and he will continue to get better the more time he spends in the big leagues. He was already forced to make an adjustment last year after getting off to a rough start in the first two months, but once June came around, the weather wasn’t the only thing that heated up quickly. Joey Ortiz and Tobias Myers are two other players who will enter their sophomore seasons with high expectations given the success of their rookie years. 

If the club does end up making a big move, expect it to be closer to the trade deadline, and only if the fight for the NL Central is too close for comfort. Otherwise, it’ll be the same old Brewers’ MO we’ve seen year in and year out. 

The Brewers front office hard at work completing their first offseason deal