John Bonnes

Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images The Brewers added an experienced voice to their front office this week, hiring former Twins general manager Thad Levine as a special adviser to baseball operations. Levine has spent nearly three decades working in Major League Baseball front offices. That includes 11 years with the Texas Rangers as assistant general manager, a stretch that saw the organization make the postseason five times and reach the World Series twice, plus eight seasons with the Minnesota Twins as general manager under chief baseball officer Derek Falvey. During Levine’s tenure, the Twins reached the postseason four times and snapped their long-running playoff losing streak. Levine left the Twins following the 2024 season, which ended with a late collapse that cost Minnesota a postseason berth. The Twins insisted his departure was not tied to that slump, noting that Levine had already planned to step away before the season’s final months. By that point, Levine’s role in Minnesota had evolved. Brought in alongside Falvey in 2016, he played a central role in building out a modern front-office structure and helped develop a deep group of assistants GMs. As that work matured and his responsibilities narrowed, Levine began looking for a new challenge. That mindset came through during a July appearance on the podcast Gleeman and The Geek, when Levine discussed how he believes organizations should operate. “It is very easy to assess and critique deals that are made,” he said. “It is less easy to assess deals that aren’t made. So inactivity is a lot more challenging to judge than activity.” Levine has also cautioned against organizations drifting into comfort. “One thing as a fan I would be attentive to,” he said, “is this notion of: is your team acting in a way that they just want to survive, or that they want to thrive?” Earlier this offseason, Levine was rumored to be a candidate for the Rockies’ general manager opening and has remained active through his Rosters to Rings podcast, which he co-hosts with former NBA general manager Ryan McDonough. When asked about his new role, Levine said the opportunity in Milwaukee aligned with what he was seeking next. “I am energized that the role with the Brewers will give me an opportunity to learn, contribute, and work with extremely dynamic people,” he said. “I am ecstatic to return to the game and work for the Milwaukee Brewers.” That aligns with his values expressed both on the podcast but also when he was leaving the Twins. "What resonates with me is working with exceptional people who are open to me elevating them to a level maybe they never thought they could achieve," he replied when asked what he was looking for in a new position. "And similarly, being willing to invest in me to help me achieve things I never thought were possible." Levine’s exact responsibilities will likely evolve, but the Brewers have added an experienced, team-focused, non-complacent front office veteran who has driven considerable success for his last two teams. That's a good start to wherever he ends up in the organization. View full article

Think you know what the Brewers should do? Awesome. Time to put your money where your mouth is at BrewersPayroll.com. OK, well, maybe not money, but your ... ideas? Reputation? Are you confident enough to risk those? If you are, you will be able to do two great things. First, you'll have a chance to build your own Brewers roster. We've built out the basics with default numbers, but you can add the players and salaries you think the Brew Crew needs to target. If you're looking for more info, keep stopping by Brewer Fanatic. You can start with our recent five-part series on the Brewers Payroll in 2023: The Infield The Outfield The Rotation The Bullpen How Much They Can Spend The second great thing you can do is share your Payroll Blueprint in our forum by clicking on the "Share Blueprint to Forums" button at the bottom of the form. You'll connect with the most passionate, educated, and civil Brewers community on the internet, get feedback, and build support. So want to start a movement to trade away a pitcher? Nab a Josh Hader replacement? Sign a centerfielder? Well, show us how you would do it by clicking through to BrewersPayroll.com and working through your ideas. Then share it with us. Because obsessing about the Brewers is what we do. Visit BrewersPayroll.com View full article

In the previous four payroll stories, we found that the Brewers will go into the offseason with salaries somewhere between $110 and $125M. How much can we expect them to spend? This is part 5 of a series of stories detailing the payroll situation for the Milwaukee Brewers at a back-of-the-napkin level. Previously, we looked at the total salaries of the infielders, outfielders, rotation, and bullpen, and came up with a $125M commitment for next year. Today we look at how much more than that they can expect to spend. To get a sense of where the Brewers might go with their payroll, it might help to look at where they've been. According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, here is what Milwaukee has spent on payroll over the last six years, along with where it ranked in MLB: 2022 - $131,930,160 (19) 2021 - $ 99,316,127 (19) 2020 - $105,842,057 (22) (prorated) 2019 - $122,530,400 (17) 2018 - $ 90,964,571 (26) 2017 - $ 63,061,300 (30) You'll notice that last year's $132M payroll was the high watermark for the franchise but ranked just 19th in Major League Baseball. Nineteenth is respectable, given that Milwaukee is the 40th largest metropolitan area in the USA. But that doesn't give much hope that the team will surpass that level. However, there is also no clear trend. We don't see a steady 5-10% increase in payroll. We see a franchise investing in payroll when it senses an opportunity to make some noise, such as coming off of an NLCS appearance in 2018. This year's team is not coming off an inspiring postseason run, but there are reasons to invest. Our analysis of the team's rotation payroll showed that the core of the team is on track to hit free agency after the 2024 season, so this generation of Brewers players has two years left in their competitive window. Or maybe just one year. At the trade deadline, we just saw that David Stearns isn't averse to trading away star players a year before they become free agents in the hopes of getting back assets that can extend that competitive window. If payroll stays steady, the Brewers will have limited room to maneuver to add free agents. Here is what our back-of-the-napkin payroll looked like: If they Brewers don't raise payroll, they have about $7M to add a big bat at the designated hitter spot or otherwise improve the team. They could decide not to pick up the option for Kolten Wong, but that would only free up $8M (because he has a $2M buyout) and also create another gap to fill. They could also make some other moves to add a few million dollars, such as non-tendering Adrian Houser or sacrificing a bullpen arm. A few million here, a few million there, and pretty soon you're talking about real money. But those also create some gaps that need to be filled. The bottom line: if ownership doesn't boost payroll, or Stearns doesn't move one of the team's more significant salaried players off the roster, their options are limited to improve. Or maybe you see some options that they should look at closer? You'll get to create your plan and share it with us tomorrow. Stay tuned…. View full article

If one doubts the significance of payroll in Brewers President of Baseball Operations David Stearns' decision-making, one need only look at the recent trade deadline. There was no legitimate on-the-field reason for a division-leading team to trade away an All-Star closer at the trade deadline. The only reason to do so is money, so let's finish our back-of-the-napkin payroll analysis with a deep dive into the bullpen. This is Part 4 of a series of stories detailing the payroll situation for the Milwaukee Brewers at a back-of-the-napkin level. Previously, we looked at the total salaries of the infielders, outfielders, and rotation, and came up with a $109M commitment for next year. Today we look at the bullpen. Closer – Josh Hader is gone (and would have made about $15M in arbitration). So is Taylor Rogers, who becomes a free agent. But Devin Williams and his 14K/9 are still around and pretty affordable, given that he is just entering his first year of arbitration. Relievers' arbitration awards are difficult to estimate, and his certainly went up as he racked up saves at the end of the season. Let's expect a boost to $3-4M. Luis Perdomo and Brent Suter can be offered arbitration for one more year. Suter made $2.7M last year, so he's due about $3M. Perdomo will be due quite a bit less, closer to $1M. Like almost the entirety of the starting rotation, Matt Bush and Trevor Gott can both be offered arbitration this year and for 2024. Bush will get the more significant raise, about ~$2M, with Gott a half step behind at $1.5M. Hoby Milner enters arbitration this year for the first time and had a solid year to garner a nice raise. He'll likely land between $1M and $1.5M. The Brewers have a decision to make regarding Brad Boxberger. The contract he signed with them last year has a team option of $3M with a $750K buyout, meaning they need to decide if he's worth $2.25M. I think that they think he is, but if payroll gets tight, they could pivot away and eat the buyout. Finally, no matter where Aaron Ashby pitches, whether in the rotation, the bullpen, or Nashville, he's got a guaranteed contract that pays him $1M, so we have to add him to our list. Which, by the way, is complete and looks like this: That final number is awfully close to what the Brewers spent in 2022. So what will they spend in 2023? We'll look at what the team has spent historically and make educated guesses on how much room they'll have left next time. View full article

The good news is that the Brewers are good. The bad news is that the clock is ticking on the Brewers' competitive window. That much is crystal clear when looking at the Brewers' rotation's payroll situation for 2023, even at a back-of-the-napkin level. A mid-market MLB team's competitive window is highly dependent on the timing of their team control over impactful players. After accumulating six full years of service time, players become free agents, and the core of a winning team can crumble. In the Brewers' case, that potential deadline becomes clear as we look deeper into the salaries of the Brewers' starting rotation. This is Part 3 of a series of stories detailing the payroll situation for the Milwaukee Brewers at a back-of-the-napkin level. Previously, we looked at the total salaries of the infielders and outfielders and came up with a $74M commitment for next year. Today we add at starting pitching. Corbin Burnes made $6.5M last year in his first year in arbitration. This is only his second arbitration year (of three), meaning the team can keep him around through 2024 – provided they're willing to give him some pretty significant raises. That includes a boost to the $10-11M range next year. The team is equally fortunate to control Brandon Woodruff for two more years with all the same caveats. He's one of those lucky players who gets four years of arbitration, but the Brewers have used two of them, and he'll also likely reach around $10M next year in salary. Freddy Peralta would be in the same boat as Burnes and Woodruff with two more years of arbitration left, but he signed a guaranteed contract extension in 2020. That means the Brewers are only paying him $3.5M next year and can keep him under team control through 2026 at very reasonable salaries. Add Eric Lauer to the list of starting pitchers to whom the Brewers can offer arbitration for two more years. But because he hasn't been as effective, he's going to be quite a bit cheaper, closer to $5M for 2023. And believe it or not, there is one more. Adrian Houser will also qualify for arbitration for two more years. Last year, he lost his arbitration case and received a contract for about $2.4M. I don't know that it's a slam dunk that they offer a 29-year-old groundball pitcher with a 4.73 ERA arbitration. But I think they will, and they can expect to pay him about 3.5M or so. So four of the five pitchers, including the two aces, will be free agents following the 2024 season. In addition, our look at the Brewers' infield payroll showed that 2024 is also the year after which Willy Adames and Rowdy Tellez will become free agents. That sure feels like the end of a competitive window. As we look at what the team might do to bolster itself for 2023, it's worth remembering that the core of the team could have a sudden and massive exodus in one or two years. Plugging those numbers into our spreadsheet, the team looks like this for 2023: We've topped the $100M mark and still haven't touched the rebuilt bullpen. Next, we'll see if Josh Hader's departure provides the team some salary space for other free agent signings. See any omissions or any issues with the numbers? I'd love to hear them. Just throw them or your reactions in the comments below. View full article

The offseason begins five days after the last game of the World Series, and the Brewers will be open for business. But what can we reasonably expect them to spend? To find out, we looked at the team's payroll situation at a back-of-the-napkin level. The infield was pretty straightforward. The outfield is a different story. The Brewers' outfield, designated hitter, and bench have lots of question marks that will require placeholders. The outfield also has the single most significant financial commitment ever on the Brew Crew's books. This is Part 2 of a series of stories detailing the payroll situation for the Milwaukee Brewers at a back-of-the-napkin level. Previously, we looked at the total salaries of the infielders, and came up with a $31M commitment for next year. Today we look at the rest of the offense. Left Field – Much has been made of the nine-year $215 million extension that Christian Yelich signed in spring training of 2020, but fortunately, we don't need to unpack all that here. For our purposes, we need to know it includes a guaranteed $26M salary next year with a full no-trade clause. Write it in ink. Center Field – Lorenzo Cain's contract comes off the books this year, and the Brewers just released Jonathan Davis. Tyrone Taylor started the most games last year and is not arbitration eligible yet, so he'll make close to the MLB minimum of $700K. If you have a favorite prospect to play here, they make the same amount, so Taylor will be our default choice and number. Right Field – The Brewers can offer arbitration to Hunter Renfroe for one last year, which, unfortunately (unless you're Renfroe), means a significant raise. We'll estimate he increases last year's $7.65M salary to around $10M for our napkin. With 29 home runs, that might even be low. Designated Hitter – Andrew McCutcheon is a free agent, and this looks like an excellent opportunity to add a bat. But we also haven't mentioned Keston Hiura yet. It's his first year of arbitration, which should net him about $2.5M, so we'll pencil him in here for now Bench – If the season started today, those four bench spots on our list would probably need to be filled by minor leaguers making the minimum salary. We'll put those numbers in for now, assuming that eventually they'll increase slightly with some veterans, or by bumping players like Taylor or Hiura with free agent signings. Here's where we're at: We total $73M for the team's offensive half, and that's the side we'll likely see even more money spent. Plus, we haven't got to the team's supposed strength, including a couple of ace-level pitchers that should get significant raises. We'll tackle that next time. View full article

Yeah, that's certainly close enough at a back-of-the-napkin level. Basically the same except subtract $8M for Wong, so about $23M. I think was we get further down this list, we're going to see that the Wong money is really going to be needed if ownership doesn't decide to boost payroll for the next two years of this competitive window.

Yeah, that's certainly close enough at a back-of-the-napkin level. Basically the same except subtract $8M for Wong, so about $23M. I think was we get further down this list, we're going to see that the Wong money is really going to be needed if ownership doesn't decide to boost payroll for the next two years of this competitive window.

Ugh, my bad. That was a typo. They need to pay him $2M if they opt out. Sorry.

Ugh, my bad. That was a typo. They need to pay him $2M if they opt out. Sorry.

You probably don't need me to convince you that the Brewers' primary limitation is payroll. We, as fans, might sort of work by feel, eyeball the roster, and expect a mid-level free agent just based on the team's history, David Stearns is doing what every business manager does: trying to squeeze juice out of every last dollar. So let's see what moves the team's payroll might allow. Step one is to determine where the team sits next year because every team has players that are no-brainers to return. We can't always precisely name their salaries, but we can get close enough at a "back-of-the-napkin" level to get an idea of where the team sits and the decisions they might need to make. The Infield Catcher - Victor Caratini is arbitration eligible for one more year. His offensive performance certainly was not outstanding, but he's also reasonably affordable, expecting an arbitration award in the area of $4-5M. We'll add him to the list, especially because Omar Narvaez is a free agent. The Brewers can compete for him, but they can compete for anyone, so he doesn't make the default list. Pedro Severino also doesn't make the list since he was released by the Brewers last week. First Base – The Brew Crew can offer Rowdy Tellez arbitration next year and in 2024. That will necessitate a raise from his ~$2M salary this year, so we'll also jot down $4-5M for his salary. Second Base – The Brewers have a big decision regarding Kolten Wong. "Big" as in "$8M big." They can bring him back for $10M, or they can not bring him back and still pay him $2M. We'll add him to the list for $10M until we see how things play out overall, but understand, he's going to be on our list one way or the other: either at the second base slot or $2M in the "dead money" slot. Third Base – Luis Urias fits into this slot. He was arbitration eligible last year, but he's one of the few players that will get four years of arbitration, so the Brewers can do the same in 2024 and 2025, too. He also fits into the nebulous likely-to-get $4-5M category. Of course, the player who played the most at third base this year was Jace Peterson, but he's a free agent. We need to leave him off the list. Shortstop – Like others in the infield, Willy Adames can be offered arbitration, but 2023 will be more expensive than several on this list because he's a more impactful player and made a lot more money ($4.6M) this year. To be safe, bump him up to $7-8M next year. So far, we have this: That's $31M for about ¼ of the team, but of course, we have the big one coming up when we get to the outfield. We'll cover that next time and maybe get to some of the pitching that is growing increasingly expensive. If you have any thoughts about the decision the Brewers face with Wong or take umbrage (or like) any o the assumptions above, we would love to hear about them in the comments. View full article

It’s math. The human mind can only remember and track so much, maybe somewhat mercifully. But humankind has found ways around that, with the most recent method being computers. One sabermetric statistic, Win Probability Added (WPA), would be entirely impossible without computers, because it tracks and sums up players’ contributions on individual at-bats. You can’t look at a player’s stat line and figure out WPA. You have to go through each at-bat, determine how much they contributed or degraded their team’s chances of winning, and add them all up together. WPA is unique and interesting because it reflects how much a hit or out actually counted in the result of the game. A 2-run home run by a player whose team is down 11-2 in the bottom of the ninth doesn’t make much difference, and thus doesn’t mean much in terms of WPA. The same home run when down 5-4 is huge and rewarded with tons of WPA points. How does that work? If you would like dive into how it works, check out the extra notes at the end of the story. I assure you, it’s very straightforward math. WPA, like any stat, also its weaknesses. But one of its strengths is that it is good at seeing which players made big differences, both positive and negative, both in individual games and cumulatively throughout a season. It is good at seeing which players rose above or sunk below their stat line to impact wins and losses. So it's a very cool statistic when determining which player was the most valuable for their team. Which brings us to Keston Hiura, of all people. Among Brewers’ batters, Hiura has been a difference maker in Milwaukee’s games, and it’s not particularly close. Second place belongs to Rowdy Telez and Christian Yelich with a WPA of 0.9. Hiura clocks in at 1.4, pretty much a full win more than either of them. That’s because he’s had some huge games, powered by some huge hits. Here are four games, all of which featured a big Hiura hit in bottom of the ninth or later: #4 - 8/29 vs PIrates (WPA 0.29) With the Brewers fighting for their postseason lives, he homered off of Pirates’ Will Crowe to break a 5-5 tie and win the game for the Brew Crew. Let’s have a look at that: #3 – 7/4 vs Cubs (WPA 0.33) Also in the ninth, down 2-1 and facing a mostly unhittable David Robertson, Hiura doubled to deep center field to set up a game-tying walk by Yelich in a game the Brewers won over the Cubs in extra innings. #2 – 8/7 vs Reds (WPA 0.44) His leadoff solo home run in the bottom of the ninth tied the game at 2-2 to take the game to extra innings. The Reds won the game in the 10th, but that meltdown counted against Devin Williams’ WPA. Hiura did his part. #1 – 5/18 vs Braves (WPA 0.56) In the bottom of the 11th, Hiura hit a 2-run leadoff home run to overcome a 6-5 deficit and walkoff Atlanta. Mayhem ensued. To be fair, Hiura has also had 32 games with a negative WPA, but that’s to be expected for hitters. They're expected to fail, so most of their at-bats end up with a negative WPA. The big hits are what get them a high score. (Pitchers are the opposite. A big blown save kills their WPA. Every successful holds or shutout innings adds a little back.) But the math behind WPA is clear (and again, below). It tells us that when we add all those plate appearances up, Hiura has had a season that other Brewers batter should rightfully envy. However, there are currently a couple of pitchers on the Brewers' pitching staff that exceed his impact this year. We’ll cover them next time. Win Probability Added tracks what it says it tracks: how much a pitcher and batter add to (or subtract from) their team’s probability to win the game. Let’s do a quick example from Tuesday’s 8th inning meltdown to see WPA in action. Things had gotten dicey in the eighth inning. Luis Perdomo had given up a big homerun to Yonathan Daza to make the score 6-5. So Peter Strzelecki entered the game with the Brewers having a 65% chance to win. He struck out CJ Cron and that raised the chances to win to 72%, a difference of 7%. So Strzelecki gains .07 WPA and Cron loses .07 WPA. Getting Charlie Blackmon to fly out raises the Brewers’ chances to 77%, an increase of 5%, so Strzelecki gains another .05 and Blackmom loses .05. But when Randal Grichuk went yard to tie the game, the Brewers’ chances of winning sunk to 47%, a decrease of 30%. Strzelecki loses .30 WPA and Grichuk gets .30. So the final totals for WPA for those players over those 3 at-bats are: Strzelecki = -.18 WPA (+0.07+0.05-0.30) Cron = -0.07 WPA Blackmom = -0.05 WPA Grichuk = +0.30 WPA View full article

The Brewers’ 2023 schedule (and every other team in Major League Baseball) has a new look that makes road trips that much more appealing. So let’s see what we can find. The Brewers’ 2022 season is far from over (even the projection systems think so), but since Milwaukee released their 2023 schedule yesterday, let’s peek ahead to find some fun trips to new ballparks. Major League Baseball’s schedule changes next year so that several series previously played versus divisional opponents will now be interleague games. This allows the Brewers to play at least three games against every other team in Major League Baseball, making it much easier for Brewers fans to see games in American League ballparks. Four killer road trips stood out to me. #4 – Toronto Blue Jays (end of May) Canadian baseball fans travel well when their team visits a northern American ballpark. So why not return the favor? Unfortunately, this three-game series isn’t over a weekend, but it is the week of Memorial Day. It’s about a 10-hour drive, but the most direct path takes you within an hour of Niagara Falls, and you’re already on the (far superior for viewing) Canadian side. Stop there for a night either on the way there (the Brewers have Memorial Day off?) or the way back. I advise you spring extra for a hotel room with a view of the falls. You won’t forget that night soon. Rogers Centre, on the other hand? It’s aged, and not particularly well. When it was built its retractable roof was praised as a marvel to behold, and the good news is that you won’t have to worry about a rainout. If you want to spring for it, they still do have a hotel inside the stadium where you can get rooms with a view of the game. Plus, Toronto is a world class city – markets, museums, distilleries, breweries – they have it all, even if if you’re not visiting on a weekend. #3 – New York Yankess Speaking of world class cities, the Brewers visit New York City on a weekend in September to face the Yankees. If there aren’t at least four items in that last sentence that excite you might want to check your pulse. If you are a baseball fan, and haven’t been to Yankee Stadium, can you pick a better time? Personally, I was a little disappointed; as its name suggests, it’s more “stadium” than “ballpark” which is not my aesthetic. But get there early to poke around or arrange a tour, and you might feel differently than I. And New York is, of course, amazing. #2 - Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres Spring is wonderful in the upper Midwest, and Brewers fans are fortunate to have a ballpark where baseball can be played in all kinds of weather. That doesn’t mean we aren’t ready to skedaddle to a southern climate in mid-April, and the schedule provides exactly that opportunity with a trip to Arizona and San Diego. Fly in and out of one, or take a week and visit both; they’re about a 6-hour drive apart. If you’re forced to pick one, the San Diego Padres trip is the obvious winner. Not only is it an unbelievable city and a fantastic stadium, it’s also a four game weekend series. Petco Park is located in San Diego’s entertaining Gaslamp Quarter and includes a built-in warehouse out in left field. It’s definitely a top 10 MLB stadium. But don’t sleep on Phoenix. The Arizona Diamondback’s Chase Field is also located downtown, surrounded by a surprising amount of nightlife, especially considering the state of that franchise. The ballpark itself is a little more generic, but if you get a chance, ask about visiting the organist. It’s one of the few places in MLB you can do that, and we found him very entertaining to talk to in-between his musical enhancements to the game. Afterwards, Phoenix will certainly find a way to keep you entertained. #1 – Cleveland Guardians, Baseball Hall of Fame, Pittsburgh Pirates Nothing screams Midwestern baseball like a road trip, and there’s a pretty good one awaiting you at the end of June. The Brewers will play the Cleveland Guardians (a 7-hour drive) for a weekend series. After that, the team travels to face the New York Mets, but rather than make that trek, you have four days to visit Cooperstown, NY (also 7-hours) and the Baseball Hall of Fame. (By the way, you have the option of an even shorter jot to Niagara Falls as you pass through Buffalo. Again, just make sure you go over to the Canadian side.) The next weekend, the Brew Crew makes their way back through Pittsburgh (yep – also 7 hours) to play the Pirates at beautifuly scenic PNC Park. At the end of that series, you have to drive a little longer – 8.5 hours – to get back to Milwaukee, but you gain an hour, so we’re going to call it close enough. Any of those strike you? If not, there are plenty more to consider, like a weekend series versus the White Sox, a trip to Denver or San Francisco, or a series in Dallas (in August, blech). You can find the full 2023 Brewers schedule here, and I’d love to have your ideas in the comments below. View full article

Believe it or not, the computers are verifying what your (usually) delusional Auntie Maddie has been saying: the Brewers are in this thing. There's been a fair amount of gloom and doom since the trade deadline, despite Josh Hader floundering with the Padres. But Brewers fans might find some objective analysis encouraging: the top three MLB postseason projection systems all predict the chances of the Brew Crew making the playoffs at over 50%. The top active postseason projection system in Google search is FiveThirtyEight.com, which (as of Tuesday, 8/23) gives Milwaukee a 62% chance of playing postseason baseball. Baseball-Reference is less optimistic but tilts the scales towards the Brewers at 51.6%. FanGraphs splits the difference, giving the Brew Crew a 56% chance. However, none are particularly optimistic about the team winning the NL Central race. Baseball-Reference is giving the Brewers just a 5% chance, while Five Thirty Eight and FanGraphs are a little kinder, giving Counsell's Crew a 16% chance. Each system has its own methodology, which explains the differences they have. Fans can take heart that the kindest of them, Five Thirty Eight, doesn't use any preseason projection systems. It strictly looks at head-to-head results, margin of victory, and quality of opponent throughout this year. Maybe because of that, it is also the only one of the projection systems that likes the Brewers' chances of getting into the postseason more than that of the Padres, one of the teams Milwaukee is chasing in the Wild Card race. It only gives the Padres a 59% chance of making the postseason. Five Thirty Eight relies on a projection system called the Elo system. In addition to the factors above, their system also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance, and rest. These factors result in a measure of strength, which is compared to other teams, on a game-by-game basis, 100,000 times. The results of those simulations determine the percentages they list. A look at the game-by-game matchups the Brewer face show one reason for us all to be optimistic – there are a lot of favorable matchups on their schedule. After they get out of this Dodger meatgrinder, Five Thirty Eight has them favored in their next eighteen games. Let me be clear: they are not projecting them to win eighteen in a row. But overall, Milwaukee is a 61%/39% favorite in those games. Plus, they face a similar stretch of thirteen games at the end of the season. (We won't talk about an eight-game stretch in the middle of that bunch where they face the Cardinals on the road, followed by the Mets and Yankees at home, because we're trying to keep this story family-friendly.) So, take a little comfort at the end of this particularly brutal stretch of games. This isn't from your pie-in-the-sky uncle. This isn't based on burnings incense around a Bernie Brewer bobblehead. This is math, and it's done by computers who don't have any dog in this fight. And they are telling you: the season is far from over. View full article

We asked a few or our writers for their initial reactions and to breakdown the trade that send Josh Hader away from the Brewers during a NL Central division race. Here were their reactions. Tommy Ciacciio "It finally happened" is a weird way to start a conversation about something that feels counterintuitive and inorganic. I understand that the identity of the closer is outsized relative to their actual value. That said, since the moment Josh Hader was acquired for Carlos Gomez all those years ago, he's been inextricably attached to the identity of the Brewers as fearless small market titans who are perpetually competitive. It's rational to react negatively when the author of so many emotional moments is abruptly and permanently absent from the role you've associated them with for years. It's important to take a birds-eye view of the situation and assess whether or not those emotions have purchase when considering the trade's effect on the team. And my (unsolicited) objective, sterile and emotionless opinion? They do not. Sports are about the moment. As much as the spindly flamethrowing Josh Hader may have appeared nearly superhuman in his dominance, the metrics don't suggest irreplaceability. The most immediately useful piece is Taylor Rogers. An All-Star last year, Rogers doesn't have what it takes to replace Hader directly, but he does have what it takes to set up for Devin Williams, who hasn't allowed a run since May 10th. Dinelson Lamet is the player with the second most major league experience. While less effective due to a series of injuries, he is only two years separated from a fourth place Cy Young finish. And then there is Robert Gasser and Esteury Ruiz to complete the trade. A pitching and outfield prospect respectively, each comes with an exciting high ceiling. Gasser is a crafty control pitcher who, despite not having dominating velocity, has managed a 30.5% strikeout rate. The speedy Ruiz maintained a gaudy .450 OBP in double and triple-A over 374 plate appearances. There are worse problems than being loaded with a bastion of young, elite talent, but with elite talent comes commensurate paydays. The Brewers will soon be forced to navigate paydays for Woodruff and Burnes, Adames and Urias. Investing heavily in a one-inning asset, even one of historical domination, just wasn't tenable. Fortunately, the savvy Stearns regime has found a way to trade him for a hefty bounty and remain at least as close to competitive as they were Monday morning. Kyle Ginsbach I'll admit I was initially shocked when the trade was first broken. After the initial shock died down, I was on board. I think what many fans are missing with this deal is the real value of the return. Though Rogers isn't the same caliber as Hader, he's a proven major league reliever, and the Brewers might not even ask him to close. Neither Ruiz nor Lament are proven big leaguers, but both ooze with potential. Ruiz boasted an OPS over 1.000 and stole over 60 bags in AAA this year. Lament arguably boasts Cy-Young caliber stuff when he's healthy and has command. Though Gasser's numbers don't jump off the page, any pitcher the Brewers front office is high on is worth noting. Most Brewer fans are aware of what they're losing, and as hard as it may be to see Hader go, now was probably the right time. More than ever, the Brewers can replace a closer, and there's never a bad time to add young talent. Obviously, the Brewers are betting they can replace Hader's production and add for the future. If that's the case, I'm sold. Caswell Dommisse Do I think the Crew could have gotten more? Probably. But the reliever market has changed so much since that huge Aroldis Chapman trade that brought him to Chicago back in 2016. This trade seems pretty fair overall. Rogers and Lamet are both exciting pitchers. Rogers has 28 saves on the year, second to Hader's 29 across the entire MLB, and offers an intriguing approach. His numbers are drastically elevated from one appearance back on June 2nd in Milwaukee, where he took the loss with four earned runs. Rogers is a free agent at year's end, but Lamet will be arbitration-eligible for one more season. He has struggled with injuries but has elite stretches. Looking at both of these guys makes it seem like the Padres limit their pitchers quite a bit, as each has decreased their pitch repertoire this season, so both could be a little different than what we've seen thus far. I am wondering what the plan will be with Lamet, who is a better starter than a reliever (3.78 ERA versus 6.90). Gasser looks to be quite good, and with the way the Crew has been developing pitchers, I'd be very excited if I were him to work in the pitching lab. I expect him to make a jump shortly and for fans to hear from him soon. He will need to limit the extra-base hits against right-handed batters, who have slugged .457 despite an average of .262. Lefties need to be concerned, though, with only 1(!) extra-base hit, a double, against him and an average of just .216. I am underwhelmed about Ruiz, but he has had some really good numbers in the minors this year, so maybe David Stearns sees him filling in that center field gap I talked about in my article a couple of days ago. Overall, I am very happy with this deal; it gives quite a bit of insight into the general direction the Brewers have as an organization. Rather than draining the farm for one huge run, a sustained attack with many runs where the team hopes to get lucky is critical for a small market team who won't pay those big free agents. View full article