TooLiveBrew

This is an outstanding point. However, I do think good GMs will attempt to leverage this bad & most recent season against Hardy's value. But I also think that will just be a cloaked attempt to buy as low as possible. I sincerely doubt that any team in need of a SS will view Hardy's struggles this season with the gloom & doom & absolutism of some Brewers fans. I also think you're right about McGehee, however I would add the wrinkle that McGehee has upped his value more than Hardy has damaged his. While I am always going to be one to be skeptical about 'overnight' success like Casey's, I really can't bring myself to say this season's a fluke for him. He appears to be a very polished hitter -- imo it's his lack of athleticism that holds him back. I hope for his sake his knee surgery goes well this offseason. He really can't afford to be even less mobile. He seems to be a good fielder on the balls he can get to, which at 3B is of course a plus.

TLB, did you try those Diamond Knot I gave you? Oh, yeah -- for sure. I just forgot to post on them http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/embarassed.gif Basically everything you gave me was good. The Diamond Knot Industrial IPA was (obviously) very, very good.

Hehe, that's a funny typo http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif And I agree completely with you on that point, OSS. I think there's no coincidence that Cam keeps himself in such great condition & that he's been able to stay productive.

Some pretty absurd comments from Phillips in that linked story.

Ouch.

i don't see that spending our available resources on maintaining that offense in lieu of improving pitching makes much sense. Cameron also makes all of our pitchers better.

One thing the Jays actually have a decent amount of is young MLB pitching. Some of their guys have been hurt this season, iirc.

Geez TLB and AKA Pete is Doug Melvin your Dad? Yes. We are brothers, and both have sweet mustaches. AKA Pete just didn't want to admit it. And that.

Let's just keep it to pitching in this thread, since we know some people are diehard Cameron and/or Hardy fans and not turn this thread into that same debate Bravo! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I guess I still hold out hope that the Brewers will be able to add Halladay. Call me crazy... call me a dreamer... I'm really not sure about Millwood. Yes, pitchers moving to the NL have done better, but I'm not sure what to make of his declining peripherals. Might just be a small-sample thing, might not. Maybe his skill is declining.

I think it's important to keep in mind that Cam's comment, "I would be willing to make a sacrifice to make that happen" isn't necessarily in reference to his $10M number this season. While I have been a big proponent of Mike (& retaining him for 2010), I don't think we should assume the 'sacrifice' he'd make would be relative to his 2009 salary. I think he could find a 2-yr., $20M deal on the open market. The sacrifice he might make is in only signing a one-year deal, or signing for around the same AAV ($10M). I still want to see him retained, but I don't know if forecasting $6 or $7M is necessarily what Cam is talking about.

Boy would it be nice to have Capuano as a viable option for 2010. Best of luck, Chris!

Thanks for the feedback, trwi. I think Vazquez would cost a ton to acquire. I don't really want to give up the farm. Yeah, he was more of an example of a move made last offseason that described what I had in mind here. I agree the Braves wouldn't want to part with him unless they got a knockout offer.

Ok, here's the best I could do (beyond my first two examples) on a cursory look around Cot's Baseball Contracts: Roy Halladay (TOR) -- signed through 2010 2010: $15.75M Dan Haren (ARZ) -- signed through 2012 2010: $8.25M 2011: $12.75M 2012: $12.75M 2013: $15.5M club option ($3.5M buyout) Brandon Webb (ARZ) -- signed through 2009 2010: $8.5M club option ($2M buyout) ** I'm pretty sure the buyout value is correct. It was established at $500K, and increased by $500K each time he finished in the top 5 of the NL Cy Young voting from '06-'09. Webb won the NL CY in 2006, and finished 2nd in both 2007 & 2008. Jake Westbrook (CLE) -- signed through 2010 2010: $11M Chris Young (SD) -- signed through 2010 2010: $6.25M 2011: $8.5M club option; can increase based on production Kevin Millwood (TEX) -- signed through 2010 2010: $12M; limited no-trade clause Gil Meche (KC) -- signed through 2011 2010: $12M 2011: $12M Obviously Webb & Young have had major surgery on their pitching shoulders this year, so that's a big question. Westbrook's elbow is a concern too... here's a link to the latest I could find on his recovery -- sounds like his elbow ligament is doing well. Millwood's peripherals have slipped this season, and his low ERA is likely largely due to his .273 BABIP (contrasted with a career .299). He's a risk in that sense as well. Meche hasn't had a good 2009... basically, there are risks to just about anyone I've listed. However, that seems to be roughly par for the course when it comes to pitching. I know that Haren would take a ton to acquire, and obviously Halladay (& probably to some extent Webb) wouldn't be cheap either. However, with Halladay only being under salary control for one season, coupled with the failure to deal him in 2009, perhaps Ricciardi (or whoever replaces him) would lower the asking price.

Instead of trying to divine which young pitchers might 'break out' in 2010, why not look at some older (not meaning guys like Big Unit old) pitchers for one or two year solutions? Perhaps pitchers who are in the last year of their contract, and their team wouldn't mind dumping their salaries, or moving them to make room in the rotation for an emerging youngster? To me, it's pretty clear that the ideal for any addition of SPing would be seeing an impact in 2010. As others have observed, young pitchers might need some more time at AAA/AA. So instead of trying to find the next Jair Jurrgens, what about looking for the next Javier Vazquez? Some older SP candidates have been touched on as possible FA targets, but what about guys that won't be on the FA market? I know he's not really old, but just so I post an example... the Reds' Aaron Harang. Of course he's been discussed a ton in this forum, so I hope this thread can get beyond him. But he's a solid example of what I'm after here -- pricey enough that his current team really wouldn't mind dealing him, obviously has talent, etc. I don't care so much about getting a veteran because he 'has a track record'/'is proven'... but imho this is a Moneyball-type strategy. What's undervalued in the marketplace right now? Older players. With the success of many teams utilizing young, cost-controlled talent (Tampa Bay & our own Brewers are probably the most recent examples), it seems that's what every team's fanbase craves -- young, affordable players that can produce as well as or better than the grizzled veterans. While I understand that there's a reason older players aren't valued as highly (production of course tends to drop off), I wonder if the sheer fact that they aren't valued as much provides a team like Milwaukee the opportunity to come up with a quick-fix patch for the rotation. It seems playing this crapshoot has roughly equivalent odds to playing the crapshoot of "find the young, cost-controlled SP that will be a #2 or #3 type in 2010, whose team will trade him for J.J. Hardy". Anyway, I'd really love to hear others' thoughts on this approach. I don't advocate it in general over targeting youth, and would still prefer to see a young SP magically acquired, but I think it might be more realistic to think about pricier veterans. Javy Vazquez & Aaron Harang are the only two examples I have at the moment, since this is basically flowing out of my brain right now. I will look at the league contracts to see if I can find some other examples/targets.

All that matters, though, is that he's been captaining this ship since 2002 and here in 2009 we're about to finish sub-.500. There's no way that's acceptable. If you're someone on the outside looking in at this situation, I think Melvin's job here looks very, very, very unimpressive. Yeah, completely turning around a sorry franchise, netting the first playoff appearance in over a quarter-century... what a loser. I just find the 'This season is unacceptable! He's had 7 seasons to build a winner!' line comical. Yeah! What has he done? Last year doesn't count, that didn't happen 15 minutes ago!

Cam's OBP this season has been hovering around .360. He actually would have been a good option to try at leadoff.

I'm guessing that somehow adding Sabathia last season will not meet your definition of 'going all in' ... am I right? wrong? No, he got pissy for Braun insinuating that the Front Office wasn't working hard enough to add said pitcher(s), and about the fact that you can't just conjure a top SP out of thin air... the other side(s) have to like what you're offering. And for posterity's sake, a tangible example of my prior comment. The Phillies told Melvin they didn't like the prospects we had to offer. But curse Melvin for resting on his laurels & contacting Cleveland!

Agreed with all that, trwi. I would love to see Cameron stay, and don't think his salary number is going to really affect much the team's ability to add SPing or not.

I do think however that it does say something about character, no? Whatever happened to the attitude of "Come Hell or High Water, we're going to get the job done!"? Because in this setting, 'come hell or high water' = mortgaging the future for one stinking season. I just wish critics like you could admit that the only reason you're complaining is the extreme high of last season contrasted with a disappointing one following. It's not like you have ever offered any kind of long-term suggestions yourself, just more generalized stuff like, 'This isn't good enough!' Going on year 7..year 8.. you just expect something a little better than .480 baseball Yeah, nevermind the building of this team season by season to last year... one season is all I need to see to tell me a GM SUCKZ! I do expect this management system to surround themselves with winners, set themselves up to be winners, to carry themselves as winners, to portray a winning attitude, rather than sitting back and making excuses as to "poor me, the system has us beaten". Suppan was signed because he was a winner. How's that working out?

This fits some of the criteria, but I am thinking it's not it. Probably not, but that is an awesome tune!

That cracked me up -- well played http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I like the creativity in the OP, but have to agree with those critical of adding Dunn. Even though defensive stats can fluctuate quite a bit from year to year, it's relatively well-established that Dunn is a butcher-x-2 at any position. Without adding exact targets, I really think the Brewers are going to be able to add some nice young SP with a package offer of Hardy+McGehee.

But... is it a zim-zam?

Hah -- that was exactly my reaction... 'Man, Bernard freaking Gilkey' http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

Patterson imo was only signed to fill a spot at AAA. I really don't think we need to worry about him seeing significant PA in 2010.