TooLiveBrew

Because even though Dempster was not a great RP, he was much better than Seth... and Dempster had been at least moderately successful as a SP earlier in his career. Like I said, I hope I'm wrong.

To any moderator or RyDogg: It'd make the draft list in the OP a lot easier to read if the BF.net picks were italicized in addition to being bolded. Just a suggestion. EDIT: Also, I thought perhaps listing some non-Rd.1 players might be helpful, especially as the draft moves later into the game. I know RyDogg provided a link, but for at least my own ease of use, I'll list some more guys. I'd also like to point out that I have very little knowledge of any draft class, so I will readily admit that I am probably about to make some embarassing omissions... 3B/OF Chase Headley (SDP -- #66 overall) P Kevin Slowey (MIN -- #73) SS Yunel Escobar (ATL -- #75) P Micah Owings (ARI -- #83) P Will Inman (MIL -- #85) C Taylor Teagarden (TEX -- #99) P Jensen Lewis (CLE -- #102) OF Justin Maxwell (WAS -- #114) 3B Mat Gamel (MIL -- #115)

True... I still don't think McClung has magically become a better pitcher by switching to starting. I hope I'm wrong.

I'll go with 3-3, even though if they don't go 4-2 I'd be a bit sad.

That matchup just made me throw up in my mouth a little bit.

I don't think there's much question that Kapler is in excellent physical condition. I don't know in terms of 'game shape', but my guess is the two are probably very close in their conditioning.

With that said, i think maybe you're underrating a bit the leadoff hitter aspect. In general, i do think a good number of baseball fans can put to much importance on the batting order because overall, the biggest importance to scoring runs is simply whether the guys in the lineup are productive. I know the lineups are important, but there's still no justification in my eyes for taking a player that's limited like Ellsbury is with a top 5 (or even 10) pick. To clarify, calling him limited is not meant as an insult; he clearly does many things well. I think fans tend to overrate the SB & speed aspects of the game. Yes, they're important, but not nearly as much as power, on-base ability (a strength for Ellsbury) & SPing... not to mention defensive position relative to offensive production. If my team's GM takes an OF like Ellsbury #4 overall, unless the draft class was historically weak, I would be frustrated. I don't think one can or should draft a player because 'he's a leadoff hitter' or 'he's a cleanup hitter'. That kind of thing sorts itself out as he develops. Just like I think it's wrong (in most cases) to draft for a specific positional need, I don't think it's a good strategy to draft on a lineup projection. Both instances there have the same fundamental strategical flaw imho. IMO though, it's such a boost to an offense if you have a real good leadoff hitter and those aren't exactly in bountiful supply around the league. To have a leadoff hitter that gets on base at a very high clip for the big bats [behind] him, being able to use his speed to play small ball if needed late in close games, and just having overall speed to run the bases on hits after he reaches base are all great weapons for an offense. This is true. I just don't think you should try to project what lineup slot a kid will fit that's at least a year or two away from even having a big-league at-bat. I think you should draft on tools & how strong of a player overall you think those tools will help a player become. If a player becomes a leadoff hitter, fine. If he becomes a #5 hitter, fine.

"Huntsvilles' Bats Go Bonkers Again" Maybe you should only start updating the thread title on Huntsville when their bats don't go bonkers, MH. It seems like it'd be a lot less work!

Utley, even without defense considered. With defense, imo it's not really that close.

At that point, even StL might not be 4 games over http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

In my opinion the most tangible intangible that Kendall brings, especially for a vet. pitcher like Sheets, is the assurance that if a pitch goes into the dirt, Kendall handles it well -- my guess is that pitchers feel more comfortable throwing breaking pitches in the dirt. Throwing runners out has to do a lot for the confidence of the pitcher as well. Yeah, this is really what I was getting at. I think if you start to try & use PB & WP as indicators of a C's defense, you're in for a lot of confusion. I think when it comes to defense, you have to just watch as many games as possible & trust your eyes for the most part. Jason Kendall, imho, has been & will likely continue to be fantastic at getting down in the dirt & blocking pitches. He seems very in-tune to the pitching staff, and though he deflects credit (which seems to be his style), I think the difference between his commitment to defense & Estrada's is very plainly visible. Iirc a Brewers player or coach said something this offseason to the effect of, 'Jason takes his defense just as seriously as his offense, unlike some catchers...', obviously (imo) a thinly-veiled shot at JohnnE. if Estrada was really so bad at calling games or working with pitchers that he sunk the team last year, why would Ned and Doug have stuck with him so long? As bad as Estrada's defense (heck, and all-around game) was in 2007, sadly, he was the best option the Brewers had. I don't want to start debating the 'calls a good game' thing, both because I'm not sure how much it does or could really exist or differentiate all that much btw. catchers, and because I don't think in any event that it's the most important trait (even just on D) for a catcher. I'm sorry, JoeHova, I'm not dismissing your well-thought out post, I just (personally) don't think trying to judge a C on 'calls a ____ game' & PB/WP will do much more than lead to confusion. As much as I luvz mee my statz, there certainly has to be a balance of stats & scouting... especially when it comes to defense. There does not yet exist a stat that I know of (I readily admit I'm a stats amateur -- at best) that helps to clarify anything a C does defensively, and that includes RTO%, PB/WP, etc. EDIT: Kendall himself was available for a pittance. Wouldn't getting him have made a much bigger impact on the pitching than getting Linebrink to pitch 25 innings if Kendall's effect is as big as people are saying? I think his defense behind the plate would have made a larger net impact than Linebrink, yes. I don't know if his 'gamecalling' would have made more or less of a difference.

This site is so elitist!

my point is that if Kendall is so much better than Estrada, where is the proof? While I don't think what you're seeking can be proven or disproven with ERA or ERA+, I do think that fans can see quite plainly just how much better Kendall is defensively (for comparison's sake, let's not include the throwing arm). He's just such a fantastic athlete behind the plate. I can honestly say that I haven't seen a Brewers C that can hang with Kendall defensively. He's phenomenal back there... the arm accuracy & strength have just been total plusses imho. I just get the sense from what some of you guys are saying that you think the difference between him and Estrada is some huge amount. That's what I'm skeptical of. I think it's a wide gulf that separates the two, and I agree fully with your categorization that: "I'm automatically skeptical whenever people start ascribing nearly superhuman abilities to any person without any proof, which is prevalent in sports" Just watching Kendall work blocking pitches & throwing out baserunners has been a joy, but you can also tell from the pitchers' comments just how well Jason has gotten himself -- in an incredibly short time -- in tune with not only the pitchers' preferences, but more importantly, their strengths & weaknesses.

For who? THe Brewers just took Tulowitzki...I guess that means you disagree with the pick. Ahhh... crap! No, it just means I was being an airhead. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/embarassed.gif

Hall does strike out a lot more than Hardy and Hardy does put the ball into play more but in terms of walking both are at about the same level. That just isn't true. 2008 BB rates: Hardy -- 10.7% Hall -- 7.8% 2008 K rates: Hardy -- 15.1% Hall -- 28.6% The only time Bill Hall has been at the on-base level that J.J. currently is (keep in mind J.J. is only slugging .339 so far in 2008) was in his outlier/career season with 35 HR. As of today for 2008, Hardy's BB rate is still better than Hall's rate in 2006, even with the seriously low SLG%. How you can argue that their on-base skills are about the same is beyond me. Hardy appears to be a young hitter whose eye at the plate & BB rate are improving, while Hall... always has & apparently always will have a less-than-stellar approach -- and if you look at his career objectively, appears to have already peaked. Yes, he can hit for power, but with his low, low OBP, the production overall is definitely hurt. When J.J. isn't hitting the ball hard, he's still getting on base. Hall... not so much. Bill's HR/FB rate is well above his career norms, yet his LD% is a career low. I think the argument can be made that Hall's HR total thus far has been kinda fluky. His IFFB rate is crazy high, his FB rate is down, and his GB rate is as high as it's been since 2003. Meanwhile, J.J. is pretty much within his norms across the board, except his HR/FB rate is low enough that it'd be unwise to assume anything but that it will grow. Sorry for the monster post, but pretty much everything demonstrates that Hardy is clearly superior when discussing on-base skills.

I thought the Brewers didn't know how to sweep teams! They're just content with taking 2 of 3 -- what's happening?!

Tulowitzki... right?

Cameron and Kapler might each go 1-4 or 2-5 in a particular game.... Cameron will have 2 K's and a popup and Kapler will have 3 flyouts. If we get to just select results, make the "1" for Cam a HR, and the "2" for Kapler a pair of singles, and I'll take Cam. And he isn't a dropoff at CF, he just isn't as good. Call it a dropoff if you like, but that sounds dramatic. A dropoff is Cameron too Hall. Since they're of similar age, I'll use career lines. Cameron: .250/.339/.445/.784; OPS+ 109 (** played vast majority of his career in pitchers' parks & extreme pitchers' parks) Kapler: .271/.331/.421/.752; OPS+ 91 (** played literally whole career in hitters' parks) Even though I know some fans are allergic to strikeouts, Cameron still has gotten on base more & hit the ball harder than Gabe.

I heard that Fielder guy started eating veggies made from meat, too.

Both guys are pretty close to being equal as far as hitting and fielding. But when that happens, the guy getting the $ gets the start most of the time. Maybe in terms of D. No way in terms of batting. Cameron is paid more money because, at worst, he's Kapler with the leather... but Mike has pop in his bat, & he BBs.

Does that get me excommunicated? Will I get a big red "C" painted on my chest and be forced to wear a foam Cubs finger? Yes, but over your head, a la the brown paper bag. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

So if you strike out or get an out because you didn't get the pitch you were sitting on that is different than guessing? Well, the difference is between guys that track the ball well even if they aren't looking for it. Honestly, any discussion with you about Hall seems fruitless.

But to be a 'guess hitter' is different from guessing sometimes (or 'sitting on a pitch') when hitting. Iirc Blazer weighed in on this with Hall a while back, maybe he can shed some more light here.

Back to Piniella. Whether he's overrated or not is up to individuals to decide, but i don't share your dislike of him and i'd be perfectly fine with him being the Brewers manager. The only beef i have with him is i think he can look pretty damn silly at times when a few times a year Lou gets into his over the top antics while arguing with an umpire. Then again, i think the vast majority of managers look like dorks when they get all crazy yelling at an umpire. Last night's game in SD was a good example of this. Except this time, it was his own player. Marquis had just allowed a baserunner (can't recall if it was a single or BB), and here came Lou out of the dugout, gesturing for everyone to see - hands out as his side as if to say, 'What the heck?' He got to the mound, and you could read his lips as plain as this post -- "Throw some _____ strikes!" Naturally, in response to the 'great motivator', Marquis promptly surrendered a single on the next pitch or two. What I hate is when Piniella pulls his bi-polar crap & then gets credit for 'inspiring the team!' I think he's an average manager, but there are elements of his style that I'm very glad Ned doesn't have. To use SB attempts to see when he puts runners in motion is a tad misleading... most of what I've seen in watching the Cubs this year is via the hit-&-run. I think players are largely responsible for SB attempts. As for "riding the hot hands" of relief pitchers in close games, what managers don't do this? Does that mean I can't be critical of it? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

Great pick (imho) Value...yes, but how can you not at least give a token thought to Jacoby Ellsbury? Ellsbury? At #4 overall? I like him, his on-base skills & speed (& D) are strong. But he's a relatively light-hitting OF (I don't think he's a 15-20 HR guy, personally). Yes, a CF, but I just don't think that outweighs a C or SP or even SS (Tulo). Just my thoughts. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif