TooLiveBrew

I think I just puked a little when thinking about Gross in CF. He is horrible on defense. What on earth is this based upon?

I love Doug Melvin.

Except that EA's college baseball games have beet crap the past few years. It's sad imo how poorly baseball is represented in video games.

I can respect the 'I'll belive it when I see it' mentality. Just remember how much many were concerned about Hardy heading into last season. Weeks has basically played hurt two straight seasons.

apirk, the problem with your post is that you assume some sense of knowledge about things unavailable to the general public. I guarantee you Melvin has fielded calls on each one of Cap/Vargas/Bush... especially since some of the contact has been reported in the media. You don't get just garbage for a serviceable SP like any of those three, and there are plenty of teams in need of starting pitching.

I don't really think that he is necessary being over-zealous saying that he could start 140+ considering he has done it the last 6 out of 7 years. Yea, true - I guess I'm just not acclimated yet to the concept of a C that doesn't need every 4th game off. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

At the expense of uttering some minor-league stuff in here... Is anyone familiar with how well Lou is expected to recover from his injury/surgery? I'd imagine a serious knee injury is particularly bad for a C. I really was hoping Lou could sneak onto the scene this year... guess we'll have to wait for 2009 for the Captain to have a shot at the bigs.

Another vote for Munson. Jim Powell was saying on the radio this past weekend that Kendall expects to start 140+ games this year. Doesnt leave much pt for the backup. Jason Kendall's 33-y-o knees started crying when they heard this announcement - video on YouTube. I think Jason's being a tad over-zealous... but then again, if he can actually start 140 games, I'm sure the Brewers would gladly take it, as long as it means an OBP greater than .330 from Jason.

Rickie's OBP has never been around .400 2007: .374 2d half, 2007: .422 August 2007: .500 Sept. 2007: .409 Rickie's OBP in the first half last year was .328, and he still managed to work it up to .374.

If it isn't clear, the books' study of dual leadoff hitter doesn't use 8 identical players but rather 8 average players for their lineup position. Right - sorry for being vague back there.

I think he strikes out too much - especially for a leadoff hitter without consistent power. The wrist injury/ies were playing too large a role in his power in years past to provide what he can do. In all honesty & objectivity, Rickie's Aug-Sept. 2007 power numbers are much closer to his 'norm' than what he did playing through pain in the wrist. my expectations of his overall production year over year have lowered dramatically since he was drafted. I'm hoping that the hunch that Rickie will 'break out' in 2008 will skew your forecasting! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

such an arrangement could help the club score 25 to 30 more runs. IThere's the verbiage... "could" is why I see it as an upper limit estimate. [in terms of the quoted statement] It could help that much, but likely will be less. Just so I can clarify where I was coming from. But then we come back to Russ's point of why bat the pitcher 9th when you are going to turn around and bat Cameron 2nd. That makes no sense to me, and ultimately I think any advantage gained by batting the pitcher 8th is washed out by batting your 6th best hitter 2nd. Honestly, I think the less tinkering, managing, talking, or interacting Ned does the better the Brewers will be -- and I am not trying to be cute about this. Whenever Ned delves into stats we have Mench batting against RHP or pitching changes made because of fielding pct. You can only do so much in the face of Yosting. I have no way to understand or explain. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif EDIT: I doubt that the real number is over 5. I think any study that shows 25-30 run to be anywhere near the projected production has fundamental flaws in it. I really don't doubt that it's over 5. With the lineup the Brewers have, moving Kendall's OBP from in front of the pitcher to in front of Rickie should easily produce an extra 5+ runs over the course of a season. I understand that for analyzing, you might have to utilize the '8 avg. hitters' model, but I don't know if the point of what's evidenced by such a study necessitates following the determinations as strictly as is being discussed. Please correct me if I'm way off base with that. In other words, it appears more important to have your strongest OBP guys strung together (for the most part), than to determine precisely which hitter 'goes' where. Is having Cameron at #2 (who carries a strong BB rate, and whose BA/OBP should increase slightly being out of PetCo) enough different from him hitting #3 to worry about it? Honest question. It seems to me (a non-skilled-with-stats guy) that what's most important is stringing together the high OBPs - to create as many opportunities with runners on for your best hitters - hence batting a better OBP in front of Weeks, batting Kendall + Weeks + Cameron ahead of Prince, Braun, & Hart, etc. Once the best hitters have had their shot, the OBP becomes less important (albeit marginally), thus the lineup going to Hall/Hardy at #6 & 7. I readily admit that I don't have nearly the grasp on these lineup permutations that others here do, but I don't know if it's as important to keep Cameron out of the #2 spot as it is to group high OBPs together. EDIT 2: As a follow-up, Cameron would be best utilized in the 6-hole if the pitcher is batted 8th, since he carries the lowest OBP from Weeks/Prince/Braun/Hart/Cameron?

One of the first things Ryan talked about when he stormed out of the gate last year was the fact that he wasn't satisfied: he wasn't being patient and drawing his walks. It definitely sounds like he isn't content to rest on his laurels. I recall this, too. It puzzled me at first at the time, but obviously Braun needs to start BBing more... just like he has in college and the minors. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif As long as he can sustain - at least - that familiar 1 BB/10 AB, he's going to be an absolute terror for years to come.

The team's assistant scouting director, Tony Blengino, and statistical analyst Dave Lawson suggested that such an arrangement could help the club score 25 to 30 more runs. FtJ, I know you were likely kidding and all, but I don't think it's really fair to make light of this situation without actually acknowledging that this is not "Yost's stat guy", instead someone more likely hired by Ash or Melvin. I think the wording from the above excerpt indicates that the 25-30 number is a high-end estimate, which seems to fit the discussion here (that it'd take a ton to get to 25+ extra runs). The 'real' number is probably closer to 10-15. In other words, roughly one win. If the lineup tinkering is worth one win or more over the course of a season, it's no wonder Yost is down.

I don't think the reports are conflicting, per se... just sort of sloppy journalism to not be more clear. He's taking a big step in that he's going to throw some 'live', but still has a long way to go, as you might expect from having ligament problems. The fact that he's right on schedule is great to hear, though. I'd imagine it's not uncommon for setbacks in situations like these.

"For pitchers, the H/BIP rate is random; research has not found anything that a pitcher can do to influence whether a hit ball is an out once it leaves the hitter's bat. The increase in ERA for this pitcher was nothing but bad luck" This statement is simply untrue. It's all in the phrasing - as Baldkin mentioned, P do have a limited amount of control over BABIP, and there have been guys that do seem to supress BABIP, but not very many guys. Instead of saying that there's 'nothing a P can do to influence...', one (I know the above was the writer's quote) would be best served by stating, 'research has not found much evidence to show that a pitcher has more than a miniscule amount of control over BABIP.' The rate is not totally random, but it's much more accurate to say that it's 'totally random' than that 'the pitcher has extensive control over BABIP.' EDIT: Yes I understand that once the ball is hit, the pitcher can't do anything about it. However, isn't a hanging curve easier to hit than a nasty slider? There is a difference between a lazer beam that careens off the right-center field wall and a slow dribbler to 1st. Usually the pitcher has something to do with that difference. It's not that a good pitch isn't any more effective than a bad one, it's that BABIP tends to jump around while hovering near .300 for almost every pitcher. P clearly do have some amount of control, but in terms of analyzing the stat, it's not one that correlates to talent very well. It can, however, help explain seasons that otherwise seem abberations from career norms, like Cappy's 2007. Keep in mind that defense and the scorer heavily influence BABIP.

Let's remember, the Brewers are in somewhat of a bind Not enough of one to get dirt thrown at us for legitimate SPs, though. I think the first wave of offers might be low-ball, but Doug isn't going to just give guys away.

And the Maryvale neighborhood gets a bad rap, but it's not all that awful. It's not like you have to worry about your safety walking from your car to the game, or getting carjacked or anything. It's a little rundown and largely latino so maybe there's more perceived badness than reality can justify. It is not the worst neighborhood in Phoenix by any means. Amen to this. To describe the area in which Maryvale sits as a 'bad neighborhood' just gives all the wrong impressions. It's 'No Starbucks/Gap/Barnes & Noble' bad, not 'Get your car jacked at gunpoint by some minority... RUN WHITE PEOPLE!' bad. In terms of user-friendliness, I'd rate Maryvale atop or near the top of the AZ spring training facilities. Once you park, you don't have to worry about anything else for the game - it's all right there, but you're off in your own little ST baseball world... removed from the 'real world'

I used to share that same sentiment, trwi7, but this blog was spot-on on some deals this offseason. I'd take it only with a very small grain of salt. Interesting to hear this update - thanks, Jarjohm.

Yea, the Bucs certainly have better pitching than the Cards, which will go a long way to determining which one finishes ahead of the other. One semi-major injury to StL's staff, and this 'race' is over.

Can Rickie put together a year close to his performance after he was called up? I sure hope so, but he was sent down to AAA to work on some bad habits. Hopefully those habits won't come back once the games count. But it wasn't that he figured out any 'bad habits' as much as it was his wrist healed... right on schedule. If these 'bad habits' manifest themselves as they did once his wrist was cleared up, then I hope Rickie keeps every last bad habit. He's healthy, and honestly doesn't have many bad habits offensively.

Just want to chime in on the T's themselves... well done BF folks, they look great.

And obviously Rickie's light-years ahead of what Alomar ever did defensively.

he is having a great Spring and you can't use Coors field as a factor. Arizona's dry air is notorious for aiding batters. So are small samples. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

"Nunez-y" is now my new favorite word.