TooLiveBrew
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Brewerfan.net T-shirt Design Contest - ENDS FRIDAY!
TooLiveBrew replied to colbyjack's topic in Off-Topic Forum
Front - Do you know why they used to call the Cubs the Orphans? Back - Because Bernie's great-great-grandfather was a hunter. [picture of said hunter standing over dead bear] -
Brewerfan.net T-shirt Design Contest - ENDS FRIDAY!
TooLiveBrew replied to colbyjack's topic in Off-Topic Forum
Front - Do you know why they used to call the Cubs the Orphans? Back - Because Bernie's great-great-grandfather was a hunter. [picture of said hunter standing over dead bear] -
Don't ever overlook how good our bench is. It's one reason why bringing in Cameron or someone comparable was so important this offseason. Between Gross & Dillon, I don't think any team can claim to have a better duo of LH & RH pinch-hitters in MLB.
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Notice that their best reliever (Marmol) was not the closer, but rather brought in during the most crucial gametime situations. I'd much rather have a closer by committee situation like they had rather than the seemingly daily disasters that we had in the bullpen and the extraordinary amount of 3+ run leads that were blown with the use of our "conventional wisdom." But Marmol wasn't the CP only due to him being young. The Cubs didn't have closer by committee - Dempster was/is their CP. It was only until Piniella got tired of him that he went to Howry for some SV opp.'s. It wasn't like it was structured carefully so that the RP were in their right roles, it was just that the old MLB standby of 'veteran-ness'/'track record' happened to work out in their bullpen's favor. You had Howry & Marmol for the higher leverage roles, and Dempster for CP.
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Am I correct in remembering that minor-league GMs are more business managers than player personnel? Best of luck to you, Tom. Stay healthy!
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That would be an above average rotation and a top end offense. This seems to be Melvin's m.o. as a GM, doesn't it?
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That would be an above average rotation and a top end offense. This seems to be Melvin's m.o. as a GM, doesn't it?
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That would be an above average rotation and a top end offense. This seems to be Melvin's m.o. as a GM, doesn't it?
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That would be an above average rotation and a top end offense. This seems to be Melvin's m.o. as a GM, doesn't it?
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I agree with you in general on the D-Backs, Gopher, but I just don't feel as strongly about them as you do. Jackson is a true power 1st basemen I don't think this is true. He's a high BB, low K guy with better gap power than HR power. A guy whose power ceiling is around 30 HR isn't a 'true power 1B' imo. Hudson's a sound player, but won't improve any more offensively - if anything, it's probably a safe bet that he regresses a bit imo. Reynolds should have a fine year in 2008, Tracy won't be the same player in 2008 (or maybe ever) after microfracture knee surgery, Upton probably can't be counted on for certain just yet to hit for a high average, Byrnes brings OBP & slick D, Young will probably improve, their pitching is very good, and team D is a strength. I just don't see their W-L being any better than in 2007, which was clearly above their talent level. Byrnes is like a cartoon character that I really can't stand That's the funniest & most accurate description I've encountered for Byrnes. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif
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Keep in mind that 'long-term' here probably means just buying out one, or at most two, years of FA. This 'long term' talk is overblown imo, since we'd still have the guys for all but a year or two of whatever deals might get signed. Hardy's probably the only one where a long-term deal would really extend any potential stay in Milwaukee, since he's already hit arbitration. The other guys are all still pre-arbitration.
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Now that's where you can see the three-year (or however many PECOTA uses) weighting. Weeks will SLG better than Pie, and post a better overall OPS.
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Now that's where you can see the three-year (or however many PECOTA uses) weighting. Weeks will SLG better than Pie, and post a better overall OPS.
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Now that's where you can see the three-year (or however many PECOTA uses) weighting. Weeks will SLG better than Pie, and post a better overall OPS.
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Now that's where you can see the three-year (or however many PECOTA uses) weighting. Weeks will SLG better than Pie, and post a better overall OPS.
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With a young player (Felix only had 177 MLB AB in 2007), it's more about talent & ML-equivalent-izing, unless I'm making a huge error. Pie is the real deal imo... not a super-slugger, but he profiles very similarly to Soriano (but probably has better plate discipline).
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With a young player (Felix only had 177 MLB AB in 2007), it's more about talent & ML-equivalent-izing, unless I'm making a huge error. Pie is the real deal imo... not a super-slugger, but he profiles very similarly to Soriano (but probably has better plate discipline).
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With a young player (Felix only had 177 MLB AB in 2007), it's more about talent & ML-equivalent-izing, unless I'm making a huge error. Pie is the real deal imo... not a super-slugger, but he profiles very similarly to Soriano (but probably has better plate discipline).
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With a young player (Felix only had 177 MLB AB in 2007), it's more about talent & ML-equivalent-izing, unless I'm making a huge error. Pie is the real deal imo... not a super-slugger, but he profiles very similarly to Soriano (but probably has better plate discipline).
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considering those projections decrease OBP of weeks, braun and fielder, and the only big increases are cameron, hall and kendall, I don't see any reason to be "happy" if the team fulfilled the projections Well, the drop for Weeks doesn't make much sense. His BB rate will be stronger in 2008 than the offseason models are anticipating imo. How you can project a .368 OBP with a .265 BA for a guy who was .374/.235 last year is beyond me... probably due to looking at 2006 & '05 as well. Why so pessimistic on these projections? They've probably got Weeks well below what he'll produce, and... The best part of these numbers are they look conservative to me for the Brewers other than Cameron, these are not levels that our players will have huge problems reaching. The Cubs have Soto and Fukudome who could easily fall short of those projections given the lack of experience. If one or both of those guys really struggle to reach those numbers we should have better hitting and pitching than the Cubs. The Cubs numbers look more optimistic than pessimistic, and the Brewers' numbers look more pessimistic than optimistic. I'll take the latter any time - like Ennd said, it means your guys won't have much trouble reaching the projection levels. Oh, and a sidenote - Felix Pie - .284/.339/.470, 3.7 WARP this is the first projection system I've seen on Pie that I think paints an accurate picture of what he can do. I really am not looking forward to facing that guy a bunch in the next ten years.
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considering those projections decrease OBP of weeks, braun and fielder, and the only big increases are cameron, hall and kendall, I don't see any reason to be "happy" if the team fulfilled the projections Well, the drop for Weeks doesn't make much sense. His BB rate will be stronger in 2008 than the offseason models are anticipating imo. How you can project a .368 OBP with a .265 BA for a guy who was .374/.235 last year is beyond me... probably due to looking at 2006 & '05 as well. Why so pessimistic on these projections? They've probably got Weeks well below what he'll produce, and... The best part of these numbers are they look conservative to me for the Brewers other than Cameron, these are not levels that our players will have huge problems reaching. The Cubs have Soto and Fukudome who could easily fall short of those projections given the lack of experience. If one or both of those guys really struggle to reach those numbers we should have better hitting and pitching than the Cubs. The Cubs numbers look more optimistic than pessimistic, and the Brewers' numbers look more pessimistic than optimistic. I'll take the latter any time - like Ennd said, it means your guys won't have much trouble reaching the projection levels. Oh, and a sidenote - Felix Pie - .284/.339/.470, 3.7 WARP this is the first projection system I've seen on Pie that I think paints an accurate picture of what he can do. I really am not looking forward to facing that guy a bunch in the next ten years.
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considering those projections decrease OBP of weeks, braun and fielder, and the only big increases are cameron, hall and kendall, I don't see any reason to be "happy" if the team fulfilled the projections Well, the drop for Weeks doesn't make much sense. His BB rate will be stronger in 2008 than the offseason models are anticipating imo. How you can project a .368 OBP with a .265 BA for a guy who was .374/.235 last year is beyond me... probably due to looking at 2006 & '05 as well. Why so pessimistic on these projections? They've probably got Weeks well below what he'll produce, and... The best part of these numbers are they look conservative to me for the Brewers other than Cameron, these are not levels that our players will have huge problems reaching. The Cubs have Soto and Fukudome who could easily fall short of those projections given the lack of experience. If one or both of those guys really struggle to reach those numbers we should have better hitting and pitching than the Cubs. The Cubs numbers look more optimistic than pessimistic, and the Brewers' numbers look more pessimistic than optimistic. I'll take the latter any time - like Ennd said, it means your guys won't have much trouble reaching the projection levels. Oh, and a sidenote - Felix Pie - .284/.339/.470, 3.7 WARP this is the first projection system I've seen on Pie that I think paints an accurate picture of what he can do. I really am not looking forward to facing that guy a bunch in the next ten years.
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considering those projections decrease OBP of weeks, braun and fielder, and the only big increases are cameron, hall and kendall, I don't see any reason to be "happy" if the team fulfilled the projections Well, the drop for Weeks doesn't make much sense. His BB rate will be stronger in 2008 than the offseason models are anticipating imo. How you can project a .368 OBP with a .265 BA for a guy who was .374/.235 last year is beyond me... probably due to looking at 2006 & '05 as well. Why so pessimistic on these projections? They've probably got Weeks well below what he'll produce, and... The best part of these numbers are they look conservative to me for the Brewers other than Cameron, these are not levels that our players will have huge problems reaching. The Cubs have Soto and Fukudome who could easily fall short of those projections given the lack of experience. If one or both of those guys really struggle to reach those numbers we should have better hitting and pitching than the Cubs. The Cubs numbers look more optimistic than pessimistic, and the Brewers' numbers look more pessimistic than optimistic. I'll take the latter any time - like Ennd said, it means your guys won't have much trouble reaching the projection levels. Oh, and a sidenote - Felix Pie - .284/.339/.470, 3.7 WARP this is the first projection system I've seen on Pie that I think paints an accurate picture of what he can do. I really am not looking forward to facing that guy a bunch in the next ten years.
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compfrtable We need to find a recurring use/employ for this word. It's too good to let slip away into obscurity.
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But in my mind, the explanation for that decision triggered a laundry list of decisions that showed a definite pattern, most notably Ned's reliance on super-duper small samples. That, and how frequently he manages in order to 'save' players for some hypothetical situation later in the game. While somtimes situations like those he anticipates/invents do come to pass, but for the most part he gets left holding his... books. EDIT: Fwiw, I bet that in 5 years from now, we will have relatively accurate & reliable metrics for evaluating managers - taking into account bullpen mgmt., substitutions, PH, PR, IBB, HBP, etc.