TooLiveBrew

Gwynn Jr. is nowhere near a .380-ish OBP. His skills are speed & D. I like the comp. btw. Rickie & Soriano. The thing that makes Rickie work (though I agree with you that I'd rather have him hitting elsewhere - 2nd or 5th, to be specific) is his high BB rate. Soriano'd be better employed between slots 3-6 as well, but his low OBP makes him a puzzling choice as a leadoff hitter. So in short, I agree with you that neither guy is a perfect fit at leadoff, but Rickie can at least fulfill what a leadoff guy's supposed to do - get on base - with the power to boot. I'd love for the Crew to (theoretically) add someone similar to Lofton, so he could lead off efficiently, and allow us to slide Rickie's bat into a spot in which it can really do some damage - like 2 or 5. Until then, I'll take comfort in knowing that we have the power of Soriano in the leadoff slot, but with OBP befitting the task. I'll have to check out James's forecasts on Willits & Crawford, Reed. Those are two names that have gotten tossed around this offseason 'round these parts.

If you're gonna move Hall, I agree that'd be better timing, ILDB. One wrinkle to that notion, though, is that Miggy's getting talked about more at 3B, rather than SS - not that Hall can't play 3B, but his value I'd guess is a tad lower as a 3B.

Well, as far as the 2Bs, Reed, Hall posted 35 in 2007, in only 503 TPA's. I'd be surprised if he finished with fewer than 35 next year, unless his HR totals spike again. Does bill james have a free web site? or were those predictions taken from one of his books? Aha... Big Reed, you have the honor of stumbling across this just as I did, but a secondhand stumble. I'm happy to spread the joy. Fan Graphs is an awesome site, this we already knew. But those dastardly folks add in James's 2008 prognostications! The '08 forecasts aren't there for every player, as I'd imagine James has to limit himself at some point. Example - Mike Rivera, no... Tony Gwynn Jr, yes. Be sure to check out the Ryan Braun projections - optimistic much? But they still made/make me drool.

You don't "reserve" a player you think is better than a starter, just to give you a stronger bench. that would be grossly unwise. No, you factor in his versatility defensively, and recognize that the small sample from 2007 is likely not a good indicator of what he may produce moving forward. Dillon PH + Super-sub > Dillon as RH portion of LF platoon.

his stats are showing that he is heading the other way right now. This is where you don't have me convinced. Thanks for that bit from Heater; that's very interesting and new to me. I'm as ready as anyone to admit that his 2006 may well be the best year he posts, but I have yet to find these stats that have him pointed in the other direction. His walk rate will likely hover between 30-40% for his career, but with his slugging, it should be fine. He had a big down year in 2007, and though some may write this off as excuses, he really has decent reasons for why. One, the position change, and two, the injury. He was at 31% last year after a 38% in 07 and 60% in 06, and 45% in 05. Hall is a bit of a free swinger and the last two years he has shown that. You're getting your years mixed up here, and I'm not sure which stat you're referencing. Help? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I don't think there's been a level at which he's competed professionally that Hall hasn't displayed free-swinging-ness. I don't think it's accurate to look at two seasons and say that he shed his 'free-swinging' moniker/label. Even in 2006 he K'd a ridiculous amount. His BB/K rate in 2005 - 38%; 2006 - 39%; 2007 - 31%. One thing that really stands out to me from 2007 is his HR/FB ratio. Perhaps this has something to do with the article you cited, but it looks to be more likely just luck. In '06, his HR/FB rate was 19.2%; in '07, 10.3%; '05, 12.2%. If you take a HR/FB rate around the mean btw. 10.3 & 19.2 - for example's sake, 15% - his HR total in 2007 would have been roughly 20. Keep in mind that Bill mentioned how his high-ankle sprain on his right (plant leg for hitting) leg really limited his power. His peripherals seem to corroborate that From what I've encountered, HR/FB appears to be predicated largely on luck, and fluctuates as one then might expect. I'll put it to you like this - and please forgive the hyperbole, as it's just another example - but in 2004, A-Rod's HR/FB rate dipped along with his BB/K, both to some of the lowest levels of his career (like Hall). His HR total from 2004 is still the lowest of his post age-22 career. He hit 45 HR in 2005, and then his HR/FB rate dipped back down near 2004's in '06. His HR total was nearly as low (35). He hit 54 HR in 2007. Is there anything much more at play there than luck? I'm not comparing Hall's potential output to A-Rod's, but their fluctuations relative to their own careers are startlingly similar. Fwiw, Bill James's 2008 forecast for Hall: .263/.328/.471/.800, 50/149 BB/K, 40 2Bs & 22 HR. That's a relatively safe estimate for him next year, and I'd be happy even with that.

Based on what, hauser? I don't necessarily disagree with you but I'm curious to know what you mean about Hall as a hitter.

Hall's definitely not a platoon player. .791 OPS v. RHP in his 3-year splits. That's including his poor .740 from 2007, but especially in CF, that's not bad for a down year. To think that Hall's off year is one in which he posts roughly a .750 OPS v. RHP, as a CF, is awesome. No way do I want to part with Hall right now. He's cheap, and set up for a bounce-back year. If Hall doesn't hit 25 HR next year, I'll be surprised. He still managed to accrue 35 doubles in 450ish ABs. I want him around when he gets back to form.

Am I the only one to post on this thread anymore? This is depressing. In honor of Don, and Kevin Dubrow (I didn't know ye)... Don needs a pick up Drunk-thread-apathy saddened No more, drunks come through

In a sea of blue, our red-clad warriors will be just that much easier to enjoy. I'd throw a few on Wisky to cover. Honestly, it has to be > 50% that UW will beat 8.

Granted, small sample, buuuuuttt... judging from what I saw from Duke last week in their preseason tourney, the Blue Devils are the ones that need to be worried. LET'S GO RED!

Hart was +13 plays in the outfield this year, while Hall was between 0 and -10. Thats a pretty sizable upgrade. It's only fair to note that by the end of the season - his first ever as an outfielder - Hall showed significant strides. I think he'll be closer to (if not) average in the field in 2008, and much improved with the bat. Having that forecast - average to slightly below D, with plus offense for the position - is enough to make me feel good about Hall in CF. If we move Hart from RF, where are we going to find the production to make that spot even league-average? For me, right now we have one hole to fill, and that's LF (/3B - whatever option works best). Better to concentrate on that (with the given that Braun could slide there & we bring in a 3B) than worry about Hall's next position change, or moving a very good RF away from RF.

I sense something in the works for Melvin, as his comments and approach to the bullpen situation just seems a little too lackadasical for it not to be GM-speak. This was my first reaction upon reading the thread/interview recap. Something is afoot. I love the pursuit of Wood, and I like Melvin not going silent on CoCo's decision. C'mon, Doug, back up your words this offseason with action!

When i watch Travon Hughes on the court, his body type, the way he moves, and how he looks on his crossover reminds me alot of Stephon Marbury. AHEM! I think you mean, "his sweet pepper & egg sandwich reminds me a lot of Stephon Marbury's." http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

Weeks and Gross almost reach .800 OPS. Barring another injury, I think Weeks is primed to surpass .800 by a decent amount. An .850 number from him in 2008 would not shock me at all.

Yeah, I realized that, but just clunked through the question - thanks. There's gotta be some sort of minimum PA cutoff though - or is it just organically created?

the rules allow for 22 plate appearances to be added Doesn't it work so you can cover X number of 'extra' PAs? I'm not sure when you can officially start adding the extra PAs, but couldn't it be greater than 22 - just so long as it covers the gap below 502?

Isn't it a sandwich pick? And are they (sandwich picks) slotted similary to regular picks? As in, worst to best '07 record...

39, I'm extremely late to this thread, but it's great that you're sharing your perspective, as has been noted. Keep those updates comin' - we eat 'em up!

Welcome aboard, mrw! it's cool it's official I guess. Yea, that's what I felt too. I didn't know if he'd have enough PAs to qualify.

I flip-flopped as to whether or not this deserved its own thread, so if this should be merged/deleted, feel free. This is from mlb.com: "Ryan Braun of the Brewers won the 2007 NL slugging championship under Rule 10.22, topping teammate Prince Fielder to become the first rookie slugging leader since Mark McGwire led the AL in 1987." Another cool honor for Ryan's phenomenal 2007.

Racy? With Chappelle, Carell, C.K., Colbert, & Smigel writing? No! Seems like the kind of show that would get old pretty quick. He's funny as heck, but it just doesn't seem sustainable to me. It got old after the first skit for me. The guy is top-notch at impressions - he has the mannerisms of his targets down pat, which imho is just as or more important than the voice/appearance. It just, well, Automator said it best - just isn't really sustainable.

Wonderful! Just for some good luck, a pic that's one of my favorites... http://www.theheckler.com/HecklerGallery/gallery%2FEvents_and_Staff%2Fchug-hendry.jpg

nice, Automator. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

So... Turnbow McClung Mota who's got the crush on BBQ righties? Doug or Ned? If this is really all we could get for Estrada, then there's something we've yet to hear about him, I'd guess.

That's a very reasonable assumption.