RockCoCougars

Neftali Feliz is close to coming off the DL for the Rangers. This is what I was thinking. I'm still dead set against trading Greinke before pulling out all the stops to extend him, but outside of Profar, Feliz is the guy that I want from Texas.

Lamb is less athletic than Meeks, but he can shoot. Had he not played for the Cats, he certainly would have put up more prolific numbers in college. I see the Redd comparison, but I'm thinking that his upside is going to be more of a scorer off the bench. I see a bit of Ricky Pierce in him. Hopefully, they don't let him rot on the bench in favor of Delfino, etc. and give him a chance before trading him for a Euro stiff like they did with Meeks. One of the problems with the Bucks are that their forwards are better shooters from medium/long range than their guards, hopefully Lamb can help alleviate that a bit.

I want Feliz as part of any deal with Texas.

Well if there is a physical issue, no matter how minor, I don't think that the Brewers would want to advertise it to potential trade suitors. Greinke seemed a bit off against Pittsburgh, and given the Brewers luck, I'm leaning some sort of physical ailment. If for some reason that it is trade related, I have to think that the trade is 99% done, and being held up for some reason (perhaps a guy soon to be off the DL).

It's not a good thing to have your closer leading the team in losses. He has to be moved from the closer role for at least the short term. This is also not mentioning the fact that the Brewer offense has been brutal in the 8th and 9th innings this season, so they are making the other team's bullpen look great. Two of the top 3 worst innings 1-9 for the Brewers pitching are unsurprisingly the 8th and the 9th. Two of the top 4 worst offensive inning for the Brewers are the 8th and 9th. Not good. They are being outscored in these two innings by an average of .6 runs a game, which roughly matches the increase in runs allowed in these innings from last year. Those guys in the bullpen have really sabotaged the Brewers season. Had they even cut the meltdowns in half, this team would be right in it, and it's so frustrating.

Assuming that they are telling the truth and he's not injured, in about a week, I'd offer Greinke a contract for a tad less than Cain received (5/110 or thereabouts)- but sweetening it with an option for not only a sixth season, but also a seventh (vesting based on innings pitched). I'd give him and his agent a 72 hour window for him to accept or decline. If he declines, he's not coming back regardless in the off season. Then, if the team hasn't gained any ground in the meantime (6 back of the division is kind of my invisible line), I put him on the market. I certainly wouldn't conduct an OBO type trade though.... if I can't get good talent back, I just let him walk and take the pick.

When the Brewers dumped Villanueva for nothing, it was perplexing, to say the least. I know that he was Machaed, but he had been fired by that point, hadn't he?

Good analogy, but I'd say that they are more like kickers, except for the way to much money part. I think a big part of this role is confidence and Axford has to have zero right now. He's just very hittable this season. Even the outs last night were smoked. As for a replacement, I'd go with K-Rod in the short term. Heck, call me crazy, but I may even give Parra a shot to close some games down the road.

It's time to pull Axford. I think that he's mentally toast right now. He doesn't look the same this year, and leaves everything up in the zone. Giving up that base hit to Craig on 0-2 was unforgivable. For the past 15-20 years, the Brewers have had a carousel of closers, generally with a guy coming from nowhere to pitch lights out until the carriage turns into a pumpkin after 1 or 2 years and the next guy steps in and takes his turn going lights out before implosion. I think that the clock has struck midnight for Axford. Though a few guys were traded as closer (notably Wickman), the last time the Brewers have had the same closer last more than two full years was Fetters, I believe. If things hold form whoever takes over for Axford is likely to do a Gehrig/Pipp routine on him.

I, just, wow. Why? Look at the results based on their past lists. Go ten years and out and look. http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/all-time.html The 75-100 players are generally about 80% misses, with many laughable. They aren't much better on their 20-74 rankings. Heck, a lot of years their Top 10 rankings are a joke in hindsight. My point is that their ratings should be taken with a grain of salt not as the gospel as a lot of people here seem to do. I'm not saying that their ratings are completely worthless, but they shouldn't be given the reverence that many give them. Again, this is not a video game, guys' 'rankings' don't translate automatically to their skill in the game. As for trading quality for quantity, almost exactly 16 years ago, Sal Bando traded Greg Vaughn for a package including two guys from BA 'Top 100'. I'd bet that a lot of people here would have been all over that, especially when Marc Newfield started off as hot as he did. Bottom line, prospects are far for a sure thing. It is a major risk to start dumping all of your established talent for them, especially when you have a fallow farm system. Your odds of 'retooling' certainly are very low, you are more likely to end up in a Sal Bando/Dean Taylor cycle. If you start dumping guys for young talent, may as well do it full bore and admit that you are rebuilding. Do you think that Attanasio and especially Melvin are going to be on board for that at this point?

Just saw this. My attitude toward breaking up a team that went to the NLCS less than a year ago solely to stockpile 'Top 100' prospects certainly has been dismissive. I believe that a bird in the hand is greater than two in the bush. I've been following the Brewers for a long time, and if I know one thing it's that prospects are far from a guarantee. I put very little stock in Baseball America, it'd be easy for anybody with a set of minor league statistics and a list of draft status to put a list together. Honestly, I think that they know little more than a lot of fans, and I think that they put these lists together solely based on minor league stats and/or draft position. I'd be willing to bet that the bust rate of their Top 100 lists 10 and more years out is quite high. BTW, Antoine Williamson and countless other Brewer busts over the years have been 'Top 75'. Saying that being 'Top 75' is not much more of an honor than saying that so and so was a 'former first round pick'. Frankly, the attitude of some fans here who I see as treating the team like a video game has been a bit off-putting to me. I've asked several times here, 'if you trade Hart and/or Ramirez, Weeks, Gallardo, etc., where will you spend the money". I haven't gotten one good answer yet. It seems that these folks want to relive the '92-02 era where you trade any talent that 'gets expensive' for the best offer of minor leaguers/MLB players not good enough to play a role on a contending team, then sign overpaid mediocrity on the free agent market to fill holes. I hear about the Tampa model, but they have been a team that has drafted (admittedly pretty well as of late) high for several years, and they are under significant cost constraints due to ownership and the fact that they have to play in a dump. There are also a lot of Beane disciples here as well. Bottom line, I honestly think that a lot of people have been spoiled by the high success rate that the Brewers have had on prospects over the past decade... Fielder, Braun, Gallardo, Hart, Weeks, Hardy, etc. with very few busts/injury derailments mixed in. I'd argue that this is the exception and not the rule, and I think that causes people here to overvalue prospects in general. I get that it's fun to talk about trade rumors and such is the nature of the web. That said, I've been through enough rebuilding projects as a fan of this team to start another one so soon.

Well I think the argument was that we should have taken the guys we traded for CC and gone after a pitcher that would have been around for more than half a year. If we did that I don't think we make the playoffs though. We barely made it as it was. Likely no way they make the playoffs with probably any other pitcher in the game down the stretch in 2008. They were also lucky that the Indians accepted a deal centered around LaPorta with essentially no pitching included. How many teams would have dealt an impact player for that package? Brantley is having a pretty good season this year, but I still make that move 100 times out of 100.

I have no clue how you can second guess the C.C. trade, and the most prevalent name thrown around in Prince Fielder rumors was Daniel Hudson. Yuck. I'll take the two playoff runs, thank you very much.

I hear that the Brewers are prepared to offer him a 5 year/$100 million contract if they can't retain Greinke.

Oh no. The dreaded 5/100 deal. Isn't this what they offered C.C and Prince? If they put a vesting offer for a 6th year in there, it's pretty comparable to Cain's deal, but I don't think that's going to be enough to get him to bite early.

There's no doubt that it would have, as McDonald is having a break out year. My point was simply that I don't think Greinke's home/road splits at Miller Park is much of a factor at all. I don't know. Many gamblers love looking at trends and streaks, and I'm sure that many are aware that the Brewers are 26-1 or whatever in MP Greinke starts. Obviously, past performance doesn't ensure future success, especially with all the variables in sports gambling, but I've noticed that Vegas has put a premium on the Brewers when Greinke starts at MP- there is often a big difference in the vig (maybe 20 cents or so) between his starts and Gallardo starts at home against the same opponents and similar opposing pitchers. Greinke has been the better pitcher this season, but not by that much. Today, the odds are moving toward the Pirates. I'm not sure if that's because the Pirates have gained a lot of believers or that Vegas wants people to bet the Brewers and ride Greinke's streak. I'm guessing mostly the former, but I do find it a tad ominous that they set the opening line so low.

The kicker here is that Greinke is likely the only one that has any meaningful value at this point (and that includes Marcum), yet he is the one that they need to try to keep. You may find takers for Ramirez, K-Rod, Wolf, etc., but what you get for them will be secondary to salary relief (with the possible exception of Ramirez, where you may get a prospect of some value). I know what some people are thinking... look into trading Hart, Weeks, etc. In that case, you are not reloading, you are rebuilding.

Didn't Ramirez basically block a trade to the Angels last summer? I really don't see the point of moving Ramirez just to slash salary, unless it is to free up cash for an immediate Greinke deal. Many seem to want to salary dump, but then what do you do with that money? Do you want the Attanasio family to buy a new mansion or yacht, along with perhaps a new sound system at Miller Park? I'm still not convinced that Milwaukee is a haven for free agents. The Brewers are never going to be able to pay enough to get the big boys, so they will have to overpay for the SuppanWolf free agents of the world, the guys that none of the big markets really want.... or trade for guys like Greinke, but they don't have the ammo anymore.

I doubt that the Brewer's line gets much of a boost from Greinke pitching at home, above the average home field advantage. Those are the kind of mostly-random splits that most gamblers know not weigh to heavily. EDIT: Brewers at -137. subtracting the juice, that gives the them a 57% chance of winning. Average home field advantage is around 4%. If anything, that seems way lower than it should be: ZiPS updated projections: McDonald: 4.06 ERA Greinke: 2.88 ERA I don't know how you don't give the Brewers a substantial edge offensively as well. I'm surprised that this line is so low. I'm sure that some of it is due to the fact that the Pirates are becoming known as a 'good' team and McDonald is pitching. In 4 of the 7 home starts that Greinke has at MP this year, the lines have been at -175 with two greater than -200. Much of that is due to the quality of the opponents, but I bet if the game tonight had been played in April, the odds would be much higher.

I think that 48-29 gets them the Wild Card and quite possibly the division. This is three games below the clip they played the last 77 games at last year, so it's quite possible but not likely. A fast start is warranted for sure.

I'd say that Vegas will give the Brewers roughly a 20% chance to sweep the Pirates (If you started with $100 and let it ride, you'd probably be around 500 bucks if the Brewers did sweep.... roughly a 4:1 payout, but you also have to factor in the 'juice'. The Brewers are going to be huge favorites tomorrow (as they always are in Greinke home starts), they will probably be decent favorites with Gallardo and small favorites in the other game.

Would they do an Aramis for Hairston swap? The Dodgers have nothing to speak of for prospects.

I think the worst scenario is for the Brewers to go 4-5 or 5-4, and have management hemming and hawing about what to do. Unfortunately, if Vegas were to lay odds, that would probably be the most likely scenario here. It's probably in the 50/50 range or slightly better that they win 4 or 5 of these games. Though I hate calling for a sweep, I really think that the Brewers need to sweep the Pirates. If they do that, they would likely be only 5 or 6 games back. The Cardinals have a very favorable schedule coming up after the next week, so that series looms big as well.

I think that they basically need to go at least 6-3 in the first 9, which I don't think is extremely unrealistic. If they can't take at least 2 of 3 at home from Pittsburgh with Greinke/Gallardo going, there are issues moving forward.

Betts was great. He was a huge part of the County Stadium experience, and it's a shame that he's been largely forgotten. The new guy can't hold a candle to him.