I'm speaking mathematically. Their schedule is far more difficult than ours. They don't have Brandon Woodruff coming back either (we may not either, so I don't weigh that very heavily).
The Brewers are the better team, and every projection says that. I think it far more likely that the Reds don't make the playoffs than the Reds win the division. I like the Brewers by 3-5 games.