Herm

so help me god, if Hart swings at first pitch.....

Driving back from that ridiculous loss at Wrigley yesterday and having the required "what would you do in the offseason" conversation. Weeks of course getting trashed by all in the car. Looked up Jose Reyes as a comparison (similar age, middle infielder, ESPN etc see him as one of the best leadoff hitters since Henderson and Molitor). Reality is (from baseball-reference.com) Reyes 3162 career ABs. .287 batting avg, .337 on base %, .437 slugging, for 774 OPS. 237 walks vs 379 Ks. Weeks 1596 career ABs (so roughly half the ABs), .244 batting avg, .352 on base %, .403 slugging for .755 OPS. 419 strikeouts (so Weeks has a much higher strikeout rate than Reyes), but Weeks has nearly as many walks (211) with half as many at bats. Plus Weeks has a crazy number more HBP (59 for Weeks, 5 for Reyes, meaning that in similar # of at bats Weeks would project to have about 100 more HBP). So for all Reyes's lavish praise, Weeks is better at what everyone considers the most important lead off skill -- reaching first safely -- OBP is .015 higher despite a .043 advantage Reyes has in batting avg. If Weeks can ever figure out how to make more consistent contact, he could conceivably vault well ahead of Reyes as an offensive force.

J hart - 9 pitches, just as requested.

Suggestions for best source for team data -- I've looked at mlb.com, espn.com, baseball-reference.com and have not found team stats for thing like HBP, GIDP, BA w/RISP, etc.

I need some help, with a personal motive: I have 50 bowls of Real Chili at stake due to a wager with my bro who is convinced the Brewers are a horrible "clutch hitting" team. He based the wager on the Brewers total of runners left on base. I couldn't find team LOB stats anywhere, so I tried this for a reasonable estimate: Hits + walks - runs. That should be pretty close -- it does not take into account HBP, on by error, double plays, caught stealing and I'm sure some other situations but I'd think it would be reasonably close. If there are major flaws in this formula please correct me, or if anyone knows of where to find team LOB #s please point me in that direction. Using MLB.com team stats, I sorted all teams by on base percentage, then looked at the top 5 teams, the Brewers, and the bottom 5. Top 5 by OBP - estimate of left on base: 1. Cubs 962 2. Red Sox 969 3. Rangers 930 4. Cards 1008 5. Yankees 908 Bottom 5 by OBP - est of LOB: 30. Padres 899 29. Giants 859 28. Royals 842 27. Mariners 890 26. As 885 Brewers - 20th in OB:, est of LOB: 833 I also checked the teams right above and below Brewers in OBP 19. D Backs - 849 20. Astros - 850 So that's 12 teams that all have apparently left more runners on than Milwaukee. As another way to look at it, the Brewers are 15th in the majors in runs scored (right in middle of the pack), while being 20th in hits, 21st in walks, and 20th in OBP (slightly below middle of the pack). Power seems to be the major variable -- Brewers are 7th in MLB in slugging %, 4th in HR, 4th in doubles, and 10th in triples, so clearly they are a top shelf team in terms of power hitting. Conclusion: despite a perception of the Brewers not hitting "in the clutch" and not being good situational hitters, their runs scored is a bit better than might be expected because their team power helps overcome a team weakness in OBP Secondary conclusion: that's a lot of free Chili.

Is it possible Brewers nixed his consideration before it was announced due to possible Sept (or earlier) call up? I don't know the protocol on this - do ML teams have veto power?

Narveson has been working out of the bullpen recently...

I'll be the first to jump on "Leutge for LOOGY" bandwagon. I expect bumper stickers and t-shirts in the bf.net store tomorrow!

They could, but being a chronic an incurable optimist I'll instead choose to focus on when and how I think the turnaround will happen: It begins with 2-1 series win vs Reds. Crazy, high-scoring games. Jenkins continues hot streak and Hall, seeing those Reds jerseys, turns white-hot with 3 HR and 7 hits for the series. Cards win two of three vs Cubs, it's officially a three-horse race. Defying season-long road woes, Crew manages to win 4 of 6 out west largely on the stregth of continued offensive hot streak. With Jenks and Hall hot, other hitters begin to relax a bit and become more effective. Average almost 7 runs per game for the AZ and SF series. Strong offense and 6-3 stretch stops the bleeding and leads into Chi series with some renewed confidence. Sheets returns during the Cubs series plus pitching staff's relief at getting such good run support leads to a resurgent staff overall. Sweep the Cubs in Wrigley, with one pitchers duel, one no-doubt pasting, and one wind-blowing-out 12-9 game (finally producing a winner in that stupid "21" promo game from Potawatmi or whoever). Pinella spontaneously combusts in the dugout. Last day of August produces a 8-0 whitewash of the Bucs, with Jack Wilson getting 4 hits and no one else reaching base. That's a 10-3 finish to what started out as a horrendous August. First half of September has Brewers facing the bottom half of the NL Central, and they capitalize with a 13-4 domination of the Pit, Hou, Cin home and away series. They close out the month with a 6-5 slate against Atl, StL, and SD. That's a 19-9 month, finishing the season at 91-71. Life is good.

correct, I believe Floyd came to Sox from Phily in the Garcia trade

HIlarious the way baseball works. Some days you start a couple of backups, get lambasted for lineup selection, get no hit by Verlander, and then get skewered further for lineup selection. Some days you start a couple of backups, get lambasted for lineup selection, then Gwynn, Counsell, Graffanino, and Gross go 7-15 with 6 runs, 8 RBIs, and 3 BB, and people/press quiet down. Wow.

In. Thanks.

Going into today's game, Braun has an extreme split of 1.753 OPS vs lefties (in 36 at bats) and .758 OPS vs righties (in 111 at bats). As a comparison, Hart has a more balanced split of .953 OPS vs lefties (86 at bats) and .877 OPS vs righties (145 at bats). I know Braun's vs lefties is an extremely small sample, but is pretty consistent with what his splits looked like at AAA (going from memory). I wonder if one proflile tends to be more predictive of long-term success -- meaning is Braun's production more likely to be fluky since it is largely influence by such domination of lefties. Any historical comparisons or patterns that would shed some light on this?

I have a 10 year old little leaguer who got a Barry Bonds bat as a birthday gift a couple of years ago. He refuses to use the bat now and I'm sure would be booing with all his might if he were there during this series. Don't underestimate the knowledge of 10 yr olds!

By scouting report, looks like the Twins just drafted Chad Green

One basic premise of Moneyball is to look hard at areas that are being undervalued or overlooked by traditional or prevailing norms. College seniors are often perceived as being sloppy seconds because if they were top tier they'd have come out as a junior.

Do any of the scouting reports mention what size hat he wears? Perhaps heir to the Mench throne.

Colby, what if anything have you heard about possibility of Moustakas as a catcher - in terms of ability and/or his interest/willingness? If Brewers draft him, do you think they'd have plans to try that route?

Woogie - As homage to the enlightened view of OPS by the many intelligent and thoughtful visitors to bf.net, could you set it up so the default sort on your stat previews is OPS instead of at bats?

Foam, happy to help you avoid a debilitating depression! I'm less inclined to lean on the intangibles; goodness knows there has been enough poking fun at the gamers and battlers theme. However, some nice signs in this regard also: --I agree with your point in the original post. From comments I've heard in player interviews as well as Powell/Uke comments, it certainly seems that Fielder has the "it factor" with the team as a real leader (case in point being his performance after the Pirates beaning a few weeks ago). Also based on comments I've heard on broadcasts, seems Hardy is well respected by the team and is somewhat of a leader, although in more quiet way than Prince. --Hall has taken his transition to CF in a very positive way, he seems commited to the change and has had a great attitude about it --Sheets seems to have some productive feistiness this year...Jenkins is not complaining about the platoon role and is producing better. Suppan seems as advertised as a steady influence. More good signs....

As a chronic optimist, I see silver linings all over the place: --youthful core of position players showing signs that each is a legit major league player with upper tier potential. Fielder - Hardy- Weeks - Hall - Braun - Hart - is an unbelievably talented, young offensive core with star potential all around. You don't often see any team develop that much talent internally that are all hitting major leagues around same time. --5 games in front of a weak division after a couple weeks of pretty poor overall play during their toughest stretch of their schedule for this season. --at top of division despite only a couple of players posting numbers well above reasonable expectations. Hardy is certainly performing well above anyone's realistic expectations. You could make an argument that Fielder is over performing vs. expectations but he seems intent on proving that is just a case of expectations being too low. Hall, Weeks, and Hart are not exactly tearing it up at this point. Bruan just getting feet wet, but early indications are he belongs. Jenkins coming back to more normal level of production after hot start, platoon role bringing out better production. Coredero couldn't possibly be doing any better, unless Yost decides to start using him for the most important outs (even if those don't happen to be in the 9th, but that's a beef for another thread) --Weak division gives Crew a chance to take some lumps while staying at or near top of division for season. With youth they are likely to get better as season goes on, gaining confidence and consistency along the way. --Pitching staff holding thier own, healthy, and deep. Sheets-Capuano-Suppan proving a capable and resonably steady core of starters. Cordero's production is without peer at this point. --System still capable of providing significant help from within. Villanueva clearly looks ready to take on larger role, whether as a more prominent bullpen arm or moving into starting role at some point. Gallardo is dominating AAA and knocking at the door. Other bullpen arms available that offer some promise - Thatcher, Sarfate, Doghouse Capellan, Parra, Aquino, Bray......Lots of options from within. (My personal thought would be Gallardo up to start, Vargas to pen, Villanueva as late-inning complement to Cordero). --Longer term still some great prospects on the horizon -- Inman, Gillespie, Braddock, Salome, Cain, Jeffress, etc. --an owner giving every indication he's willing to write the check if needed to fill a hole. Extremely competent GM with track record of nugget mining. --All in all I see a team having reasonable success already despite a minimum of guys playing way above their heads. Some serious inconsistency, but weak division and Brewer youth/talent has the look of a team on the rise with high likelihood of playoffs this year.

Classic case of wasting a shut-down reliever because of the "closer" role. To me, you use your most dominant, shut-down guy to get the most important outs late in a game, even when they are not in the 9th. Today those outs were Renteria-McCann; once TBow got into trouble I'd use Cordero right there -- even if that means he would not be available for the 9th. I'd be much more comfortable relying on Shouse/Spurling/Villanueva or whoever to get three outs when starting an inning against the 5-6-7 hitters rather than wishing they could get out of a bases juiced one out situation vs 3-4

I just have a bad feeling about this game...seems like one of those games where the opposing pitcher comes in and drops his ERA 3 runs after facing the Brewers. I did the math - he'd have to throw 27 innings tonight without an earned run to get his ERA down to 4.43. I think we're safe!

What do you think about this strategy -- on a day like today where beginning of game may be in question due to rain, but where it is likely to get the game in at some point, have a reliever throw the first inning or two. Relievers are more acclimated to quick warm up and entry to game, where starters are typically into a longer routine to get ready. That way if start time is pushed back a bit or if there is some start and stop in early innings, you are not getting starter warmed up a couple of times or varying starter's routine, bring starter in after an inning or two when it is more clear that game will proceed.

Willie Stargell would look awful. As if Stargell looked good in the black and gold mix and match nightmare unis, circa 1979. The worst was the bumble bee striped version.