thebruce44

At this point in my life I have to admit that I am a causal fan at best, so take this for what its worth, but isn't it important to evaluate the Packer's cap position relative to the rest of the league? There is a general talent pool and they are mostly going to be playing somewhere next year. Everyone will be dealing with the same parameters to sign this talent. If it looks like the Packers are going to be way over the cap by x amount, but there are 25 other teams who are looking like they will be over by more than x, then what is everyone worried about?

If you withdraw over time it really doesn't matter if the cycle is based on timing or price. I am in crypto for the long run as I think it is a disruptive technology, so therefore I should be investing for the long term. That being said, I think the question to ask yourself is, if I withdraw now, will I be able to buy the same amount after the bubble bursts for a smaller amount. Yes- it is totally trying to time the market, so hopefully history continues to repeat itself and models are correct. I am not aware of another investment vehicle that has an event built into its protocol that changes its value in fixed intervals...and one that is still relatively unknown technically and with a low barrier to entry- the perfect storm for uninformed moon boys investing because of memes or Elon tweets to further drive the volatility. Anyway, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. We'll see how the next 10 months go.

The model I've been looking at models scarcity in terms of stock to flow ratio. You will find lots of good information if you Google BTC stock to flow. I won't pretend to fully understand it, but the cyclical nature of BTC seems obvious to me at this point. Essentially I think BTC will be worth more in the coming months than it was worth over the last year when I was buying. I think charting the past cycles can help estimate how this cycle will proceed. Cashing out throughout the run up means you don't need to guess at the peak.

My ETH and IOTA are doing very well over the last month. And looking at the historical cycles, we have a very long way to go this round. I'm not going to try to convince anyone to invest, because it is so volatile. That being said, most of the analysts I follow have the top of the BTC cycle at $250k - $280k. If ETH and other alt coins follow, that could mean ETH at $20,000. I plan to start taking profits at set intervals after BTC hits $100k. If everything crashes before then, so be it- I will still be up from all of my purchases over 2018/19. Getting in now is riskier, but I think can still be profitable. Just don't invest in Dodgecoin.

I'm so sorry to hear that. We had a miscarriage 2 years ago and it was incredibly difficult to get through. Since then we have been very lucky with a 2 year old and now we have a 1 month old (born on 1/1/21). Not sure your exact situation, but getting through the difficult times made us appreciate the good ones even more.

I'm going to assume that shooting percentages are up in general with no fans in the stands. I would imagine that this hurts the Bucks more than other teams given their style of defense. I don't know that this is much more complicated than that.

If by "publicly bash" you mean publish opinions based on thorough research on the financial performance, financial stability, competition, and industry, then I guess you can say they "publicly bash" the company they are shorting. Citron Research has one of the best track records of exposing fraud in the corporate sector, and many of the companies that they have recommended shorting were because they were engaging in fraud (including bulletin-board pump-and-dump schemes). Is that "publicly bashing"? This certainly isn't my area of expertise, but how do you reconcile what you are saying with this interview? It definitely sounds like manipulation and like it happens all the time. "What's important when you're in that hedge fund mode, is to not do anything remotely truthful. Because the truth is so against your view, that it's important to create a new view, to create a fiction." "Then you call the (Wall Street) Journal and get the bozo reporter in Research in Motion and you would feed that (rival) Palm's got a killer it's going to give away. These are all the things you must do on a day like today, and if you're not doing it, maybe you shouldn't be in the game." “It might cost me $15 million or $20 million to knock RIM down but it would be fabulous because it would beleaguer all the moron longs who are also keying on Research in Motion." "A lot of times when I was short at my hedge fund ... meaning I needed (a stock) down, I would create a level of activity beforehand that could drive the futures. It’s a fun game and it’s a lucrative game." "Who cares about the fundamentals? The great thing about the market is that it has nothing to do with the actual stocks." - Jim Cramer, hedge fund manager from 1987-2001, Dec 2006 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CpMEFtPZJLc

I think most people are understating how big of a deal this is. Here is a post from WSBs, edited so it can be posted here. Of course its overly dramatic, but interesting none the less. At this point, you've got millions under 40 who have been screwed over repeatedly and with nothing to lose. Their spite can outlast these hedge funds. There doesn't need to be an actual end goal besides stirring the pot.

Wait a minute, did you just anoint Mahomes as one of the best two QBs in NFL history? That might be a little premature maybe? If you said Brady and Rodgers, that wouldn't have made me cringe, that is at least a formative argument, but Mahomes top two, EVER? Is this the definition of a straw man? You bolded and put in red his original argument, then reframed it. Come on man.

Then he's at MVP level. Not too shabby. MVP doesn't equate to best player in the league. The player he is and has been has not resulted in a Finals appearance. If he doesn't improve his game, that's not changing anytime soon. Okay, what would you like to use to evaluate best player or one of the best if MVP and DPOY are not useful to you? It sounds like you want to use playoff success, but I am sure you would agree there are some counter arguments here- like small sample size and team influence. Your argument would be like evaluating pitchers based off playoff wins and losses. Could we use WS/48? If you want to argue VORP, I get that too- though that is negatively impacted by the minutes he is given by his coach. Either way, the stats seem pretty consistent with the eye test (MVPs).

What? Are you basing this on his "slow" start to the year? Help me understand your argument since he is coming off back to back MVPs and a DPOY award.

I could certainly see this. I recall going to the 2011 Rose Bowl and doing things the couple days prior the weather was ok in my book, I wore a lightweight jacket. The locals out there thought it was cold and miserable. I'm out in LA now and this really can't be stressed enough. It's 89 degrees and sunny as I type this. Yesterday I went to Home Depot in shorts and a t-shirt. Pretty much everyone else was in a hoodie or an actual winter jacket. It was 82 and I was sweaty. They were shivering. If it dips into the 50s at night nobody will even walk outside. These people are soft and, sadly, I'm sure its a matter of time until I become one of them.

Seems like they're just postponing the inevitable. I think each will end up finding success elsewhere as they're still relatively young, but they'll both be on the hot seat to enter next season and it's highly unlikely they'll have the QB situation figured out. Their best bet is to probably stick with what they have and hope Trey Lance falls to them or...I guess grab Mac Jones. But unlikely either will take them from a ~8 win team to a real contender in the near future. Pace in particular looks bad. 4 straight top 10 picks and the best of them has been Roquan Smith. Kevin White was injured from the start, Floyd...who we'll see this week, is a really solid player(10.5 sacks this year) but didn't get it done in Chicago and they decided to replace him with the more expensive, less athletic version of him. He's had some big hits...like Eddie Jackson, Amos, Eddie Goldman(not sure if Hicks was there when he got there or not). But all that would have been wiped away if they'd just taken one of the other two QB's available. Not that many people considered either in place for that pick, but damn, that set the Bears back 5 years already. I think you could also make the case that there might be some deficiencies in QB development in Chicago. Especially when compared to KC.

If your wife happens to be breastfeeding, that might help protect the child, too The pediatrician said her antibodies will pass through her milk to our infant.

Regardless of what happened with me, my wife, toddler, and newborn, we will all be getting vaccinated ASAP. I truly hope there are no long term effects for newborns- my wife wore a mask up until yesterday since her symptoms are now gone, but with how close she and the newborn have to be, I'm assuming a mask can only do so much.

To further add anecdotal stories, I was exposed to the virus for nearly 2 weeks straight in close quarters from my MIL and then my wife. I had 2-3 days where I didn't feel very good (felt like a head cold and then some drainage into my lungs), but never tested positive through 3 rapid tests. I don't know if that means I am immune or if I got it and recovered between tests, but this is definitely a strange virus. That isn't all that strange. No virus ever gets to everybody even if they are in close contact with it. The hysteria over this has naturally led people to assume if they're around someone who had it, they have it, but even if nobody took a single precaution, there would be millions of people who never get infected. But I literally had COVID shoved up my nose (our toddler thinks its hilarious to stick a Neosporin bottle cap tip up her nose and everyone else's). I think it is more likely that a portion of the population already has antibodies without getting the virus. I had a head cold a week before exposure, which I read can be caused by other types of Coronaviruses. Maybe that helped? Again, all anecdotal and speculation on my part.

It's an airborne virus, they were in the same house & rooms for extended periods of time and they had masks off for extended periods of time. None of this is surprising at all. To further add anecdotal stories, I was exposed to the virus for nearly 2 weeks straight in close quarters from my MIL and then my wife. I had 2-3 days where I didn't feel very good (felt like a head cold and then some drainage into my lungs), but never tested positive through 3 rapid tests. I don't know if that means I am immune or if I got it and recovered between tests, but this is definitely a strange virus.

This is why I like crypto. I don’t own much, but its very existence might force central banks to act more responsibly. Competition is good. The text attached to the Bitcoin genesis block was "the Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks". This was the ultimate goal. You can argue Bitcoin has strayed from the original vision, since it is now somewhat centralized in mining pools and requires so much energy. It is also not an efficient way to transfer money. The protocol has not advanced, hence the idea of it being a store of value. I am not going to argue for Bitcoin though. I own a bit because I see it as a good investment in this current cycle. Most of my investment is in Ethereum and I hold a lot of IOTA, though that hasn't been a great investment so far. I view ETH as the next stage of distributed ledger technology, and IOTA as the next stage after ETH. These technologies could change so much more than just finance in the long run.

Go put your house money into it and let us know how it goes. I did break out $5k to put into Btc and Eth. Everything else will sit on the sidelines for 10 months. Adding that $5k to some Eth and IOTA I've had for a long time. Looking at historical cycles, I hope that needing to pull money back in the fall will make me not wait too long for everything to fall apart again. Of course, I know this is not sound investing, but at least I'm not putting in more than I can afford to lose.

Still no discussion here about Bitcoin or other Cryptos...that tells me there is still a long runway to the next peak.

First off, I am trilled to say that my wife delivered our new baby boy this morning at 4am. Now the not so fun stuff. My mother-in-law flew out a week and a half ago to lend an extra set of hands since we also have a todler. I'll do my best to leave the politics out of this, but nearly a year of my wife and I being super careful was out the window when she showed up with a horrible cough. She tried to downplay her symptoms and said COVID isn't a big deal, but we eventually insisted that she either get a test or a hotel room. Well, the test was positive, then my wife tested positive a couple days later. I somehow continue to test negative as of 2 days ago and am still feeling relatively good. My wife had a miserable couple of days- coughing and working to breath isn't fun when you are 39 weeks pregnant. We tried to isolate from each other but it was pretty much impossible. Anyway, I was not able to be there for the birth and wont get to see my new son until tomorrow at the earliest. Needless to say, its a pretty tense family situation at this point. I can understand how someone isn't concerned about getting COVID themselves, after all chances are they will be fine, but I can't understand how so many individuals continue to make decisions for others.

Posted during a game Middleton put up 31 pts in 26 minutes.

If you are not going to be making a big purchase any time soon like a car or a house then this is of little concern. Or if you plan to purchase auto insurance, change jobs, etc. And your credit score isn't something you can quickly change when you do want a loan. Just sayiing, something to keep in mind. Something to keep in mind, absolutely. If done correctly, opening cards to get free stuff can actually improve your credit.

Not 'cutting the cord' related, but a youtube channel I sometimes watch is of a younger couple who traveled the world for two years. They said that for a year before they left they signed up for a huge number of travel cards to get those sign-up bonus miles and those "spend $2000 in the first two months for a bonus" cards. Definitely a lot to manage, but it did get them a lot of free flights. Similarly, I have a planned $4000 purchase coming up, so I got the Capital One card just to get that initial-spending bonus. You should check out the churning subreddit on Reddit. The Chase Sapphire Reserve or Preferred are typically the most coveted first cards to get. When my wife and I got married I signed up for a couple cards and payed for everything that way. A decent amount of our honeymoon was free or upgraded because of that. We've also managed to stay at some of the nicest Hyatt hotels in the world for free or very cheap. Of course, I haven't kept up and stayed as organized as I used to. My New Years resolution is to look through my cards and figure out what to cancel.

I just had the same conversation with my mother in law who claimed you can always get a safe 3-4%. It just doesn't exist right now and I am not going to spend a ton of time trying to eek out an additional .05%, which equates to $100 over the course of a year. Sadly, I will just plan to park that money and will probably have to buy back into the housing market sooner than later. I'm in LA, so things are still increasing roughly 10% year over year.