joepepsi
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Everything posted by joepepsi
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The idea of a flawed team occurred to me last summer. Braun, Fielder, Cameron, Hardy, 31 starts from Sheets, 17 from CC, 4.18 ERA from Bush, 4.39 from Parra, and the best this team could do was 90 wins? It seems the upside for this core talent, when everything goes right, is about 90 wins tops. I want a team that, if everything goes right, wins 95-100 games.
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Do we have competitive balance right now?
joepepsi replied to Invader3K's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Last night I dug out my copy of the Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract from 2002. His essay about baseball economics in the 90's has a good idea. He suggests all teams split TV/radio revenue 50/50. So if the Yankees have a $500 million cable package, they get to keep $250 million and must put the other $250 million into a shared pot with 50% of the revenues from every team's media contracts. That pot is then distributed evenly to all 30 teams. Under this plan, the Yankees would still be making a fortune, but the small market teams would also see a huge boost in revenue. Since it takes two teams to play a game, it's only fair the broadcast rights are shared. -
This could be a very different team next season. I don't think Doug will trade Prince, Braun, or Yo, but everyone else could (and probably should) be on the table for discussion. If the focus is on finding long term starting pitching, you have to figure any the but Big 3 will be offered up for evaluation.
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DJ43, these points you just brought are really frustrating me. Any time an organization chooses veteran gamer over talent, particularly when it's September and they are out of it, they are choosing a loser strategy. It's inexcusable.
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I pointed this out on post 16: The previous 3 seasons they are averaging 82 wins a year, just like the Brewers. As Baseball Prospectus pointed out, they haven't had back to back losing seasons since the 94-95 strike shortened years. Before that you have to go back to 1958-59. The bottom line, they have a solid, stable organization buoyed by a tremendous fan base for their market size. In the last decade they've been helped by a pretty weak division. The won/loss record looks pretty good when you play a third of your games against some of the worst teams in baseball. Although it's true their 2006 83 win World Championship season seems a bit cheap, it's only fair to remember they won 105 games in '04 but lost the World Series. In 2005 they won 100 games but lost in the NLCS. Playoffs are a crapshoot.
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If Patterson is the starting CF in 2010, wait, if he's even on the roster in 2010, I may stop being a Brewers fan. That's how significant the message will be to me.
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Hopefully next year he will have even more opportunities to hit in the 8th and 9th innings with the winning run on base.
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The previous 3 seasons they are averaging 82 wins a year, just like the Brewers. Here's what I think: Duncan is a genius and deserves more credit. LaRussa is a good manager, despite the fact I can't stand him. He does a great job of using his entire roster. It seems managers that do that produce winning teams more often. They aren't scared to trade prospects for proven players. They are willing to pay top dollar for premium players, and avoid signing mediocre players to long term, overpaid contracts.
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They don't need him. Gerut should be playing CF every day as long as Cam is sidelined. With Cat and Hart ready, RF is covered. Mark me down as another one who liked Macha but has now soured on him. Letting Kendall bat 3 times late in two games over the weekend when the tying or winning run was on base is inexcusable. Especially against a RH closer when a lefty option was on the bench. Playing Patterson when he has no future with the team is exhibit B for firing him. Bringing Patterson up from AAA may be reason enough for firing Melvin.
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The Orioles have Wigginton as a stop gap at 3rd through next year. I suspect they'd be more interested in Escobar than Hardy. Izturis is signed through 2010 and Escobar fits better with their rebuilding. They don't look to be competitive in 2010, so they won't be interested in Hardy. Escobar adds to the young talent of Jones, Markakis, Wieters, Reimold and all the kid pitchers. Hardy will be expensive and gone before they are competitive.
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I'm sure Counsell will be back if wants to. I think there is reason to believe Hardy will bounce back next year. His major league career rates entering this year were .270/.329/.446. His career BAbip is .282, this year it's .251, which roughly explains his current batting average and obp as compared to his career rates. The question is, will he hit 26 homers in a season again? Even if he doesn't he''ll probably still settle in as an average hitter playing an important defensive position. He may be too expensive for the Brewers, as an average ss, but I think he'll still have good value to another team. Especially to a smart GM who recognizes it's not unthinkable for a .270 lifetime hitter to hit around .230 in a given season. Cal Ripken at 28 posted a 257/.317/.401. Two years later he had a .940 OPS and won his second MVP. I think Hardy is more Ripken than Bill Hall.
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yogallardo43, last winter I would have agreed with you. I was a big advocate for trading Escobar and Hart, keeping Hardy. I think Escobar can be a fine major league ss, but I'm not convinced he's All Star caliber. Last winter, I figured it was worth two more seasons of "going for it" with one of the best ss in the league playing alongside Braun and Prince. 2011 was a long ways off so there would be time to find at least an average replacement. Now I think they need to cut payroll wherever they can, in the hope of finding some extra cash for pitching. That means trading Hardy and probably letting Cameron and Kendall walk. Those three gone lowers the estimated payroll by $20 million. Assuming they can re-sign Gerut they would at least have adequate replacements for all 3.
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I guess I don't see the advantage of trading McGehee for a buy low candidate or mid level prospect. He was himself a mid level prospect, so the chance that another mid level guy will perform at this level is slim, imho.
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From my perspective "winning mentality" means no Corey Patterson on the roster. So maybe this is why he's in Milwaukee-to give the Sounds a better chance to win!
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I don't believe any GM will be fooled by a 300 plate appearance performance. A similar example might be Melvin Mora who was trade mid season at age 28 by the Mets along with 3 other players for Mike Bordick. I think it's best to keep McGehee unless he's part of a package of players in a big trade. I like this infield for 2010: Prince,Weeks, Escobar, Gamel, McGehee, Counsell.
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I think of Escobar as an Edgar Renteria/Orlando Cabrera type. Until this season Hardy seemed like a Tejada/Ripken type. Ripken had some pretty mediocre years at the plate sprinkled throughout his career, so maybe that comp still holds.
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What's next? Dusty Baker as new manager in 2010?
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Don't trade him. He's not at peak value. Most GMs are savvy enough to know pitchers will make adjustments next year and Casey will likely struggle a bit. He's a 26 year old bench player having a great year. A rookie like that is going to net maybe a relief pitcher, or a similar type outfielder. The only sort of trade I could see happening would be if the Brewers traded Hart or didn't re-sign Cameron. Then they might do some move like McGehee for McClouth or someone similar.
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Ew. Loser mentality. Is this the immediate future of the Brewers?
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Cameron willing to "make a sacrifice" to stay with the Brewers
joepepsi replied to trwi7's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Dave Duncan deserves the worship Leo Mazzone got. -
Cameron willing to "make a sacrifice" to stay with the Brewers
joepepsi replied to trwi7's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
You can't. They will have to offer him something like what he made this year plus at least an option for a 2nd year. -
Cameron willing to "make a sacrifice" to stay with the Brewers
joepepsi replied to trwi7's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Damian Miller was better than Kendall and they had no problem letting the Wisconsin boy go. Kendall had better be gone. It never occurred to me they might actually raise payroll next year, but it makes sense. They have one more year to pay Suppan and Hall, so Mark A. should considers them a sunk cost and build an $80-90 million payroll without including the two yahoos. After 2010 the payroll will fall back down, especially if Hardy, Hart, and/or Fielder are gone. So they could bring back Cameron next year for $10 million and make a run. Then a mini rebuild may be in order for 2011. -
Brewers sold 3 million tickets again
joepepsi replied to Buckhunts's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Milwaukee is a great baseball town. Or Wisconsin is a great baseball state. In 2002 when they lost 106 games they drew just under 2 million. '03 it was 1.7 million, but by '04 they were over 2 million and climbing steadily. For the smallest market in baseball that's amazing. Much more impressive than the Yankees drawing 4 million. The 2008 attendance was within a few 100,000 of the Red Sox, Cardinals, and Cubs. It's time Milwaukee and Wisconsin got the same credit as these places for great fan support. -
That was a wonderful night at the ballpark--one of my best baseball experiences ever. I was in DC by myself for business. Took the Metro to RFK. As I walked up to the stadium a guy in his mid-50s or so asked me if I wanted to buy one of his tickets for $15. I said sure. Turns out I sat by him and his wife right behind home plate just a few rows up. Tried to buy them a beer in gratitude by they would have none of that. The old place reminded me of County Stadium or old Comiskey or some minor league park where the sound rocks and echos around bouncing off the metal floors. 20,000 some fans, but it was loud and raucous. The concessions were little roll around vendor carts, but they sold Harp, so that was nice. Rode back to the hotel on the Metro full of Nats fans. All told I spent less the 20 bucks for transportation and premium seating. The Harps were the same price at the game as downtown DC. I thought, wow, this city loves its team, this is great. The next year they had a new stadium with no energy and lost all their fans. Ronnie always looked/acted like a little ManRam on the field to me. Guess Milwaukee wasn't the best fit for him, but whenever I see him play nowadays he always looks like he's having a good time. And I always think of that awesome play he made at one of the best games I ever attended. I can't fault him for any of that.
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He bounced back to have a solid career despite the Brewers' near maniacal attempt to ruin him. I'll never understand why they picked up Eric Young when they had two perfectly good 2B in Belly and Loretta already on the team. Then they switched them both to 3B, played Loretta hardly at all and gave Tyler Houston most of the time at 3rd. There were reasons that team lost 106 games followed by a mass bloodletting. Belliard was a solid young 2B that the worst team in baseball couldn't find playing time for. I know he's not a great 2B, but he made the greatest play I ever saw at a game I attended. It was a Nats-Reds game at RFK mid summer in 2007. A screaming grounder caromed off the pitcher's foot to the 2B. Ronnie ran over to it, reached down his glove hand, got the ball and continued spinning his body counter-clockwise to a full 360 degree turn. He came around flipped the ball out of his glove to the ss at 2nd, who then threw to 1st for a double play. The crowd sprung to it's feet for a standing O. The applause persisted for a moment until he tipped his cap to the crowd. He said something to the ss and you could see both of them laughing. I figure he stole Pee Wee Herman's line, "I meant to do that". edit:? I just found it on YouTube.? Felipe Lopez was the ss, and they didn't get the double play.? Lopez made a nice play grabbing the ball.