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joepepsi

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Everything posted by joepepsi

  1. joepepsi
    If that's all UZR is then all the fielders from bad teams, or teams with bad pitching will score better than teams who's pitchers have high strikeout rates. Letting Cameron, Kendall, Looper, and Hardy go frees up $25+ million from the 2009 payroll. After 2010 Suppan and Hall will be off the books and free up another $20 million. After 2011 Prince will most likely be gone; probably Hart will be by then as well. The team can afford a multi year deal to a good pitcher. 2009 payroll was too high and it limited what Doug could do last winter. He can have more flexibility going forward.
  2. joepepsi
    Good discussion about Cameron. I think everyone agrees he's an asset to the team and would take him back if the payroll could afford it. I tend to agree with Invader-he's a luxury this team probably can't afford next year. He's a great CF'er and one of my favorite players on the team, but I have a hard time believing any CF'er could save 20 runs a year over the average CF'er. It seems something like that would show up in a noticeable way for every team he's played.
  3. joepepsi
    Gerut's career OPS is .765. Cameron's in .788. Cameron's OPS the last two years with Milwaukee is .801. Gerut's last two seasons OPS is .758. I realize it's a small sample size, but Gerut's OPS since the All Star break was .802. Obviously Cameron is a proven commodity, while we can't be sure how Gerut will perform everyday, 4 years removed from a major injury. But over his career Gerut has been a similar hitter to Cameron: league average obp, a little above league average slugging. I'm not convinced offensively there is a big difference between the two. Gerut's played more innings in RF than CF, so maybe he's not a real good CF'er. Someone else can address that. At any rate it seems almost any new starter would be 2.5 wins better than the 2009 starter he replaces.
  4. joepepsi
    Cameron averaged 2.92 chances per 9 innings this year. Adam Jones for the Orioles averaged 3.25 chances per 9. I'll compare these two because both are considered good CF'ers and both played with terrible pitching staffs. As important as CF defense is, I find it hard to believe those 3 chances a CF'er gets every 27 outs are more valuable than the 18-21 outs of a good starting pitcher.
  5. joepepsi
    Thank you much, hawing!
  6. joepepsi
    I bet you'd be within 12.8 wins too.
  7. joepepsi
    I'm willing to take the chance the difference between Cameron and Gerut is much less than the difference between Hoffman and Joe Schlubcloser.
  8. joepepsi
    Great title thread! So let me get this straight: every team is within 2 standard deviations where one standard deviation is 6.4 wins? Doesn't seem all that remarkable to me....
  9. joepepsi
    I agree with all of this. They'll go hard after a Marquis-type and try and get a couple pitchers for Hardy like a major league McClung type and a nearly major league ready talented minor leaguer.
  10. joepepsi
    Animal100 has the right plan going forward. I suspect this is exactly what the organization is thinking. They shouldn't feel that Gamel or McGehee needs to be traded at this point.
  11. joepepsi
    You raise some good points endaround. I agree no one save Yo should consider themselves a lock for the rotation. That said, I don't agree Bush is a non tender candidate. It would be a big mistake to cut loose Bush. I'm willing to sign off his season to injury and give him a chance at the back of the rotation.
  12. joepepsi
    I'd only trade Gamel if he's part of a deal that brings a top flight starting pitcher whom they'd control for at least a couple years. Otherwise, let this work out in Spring Training. Worst case scenario Gamel goes to AAA and is used in a deadline deal, or he tears up AAA for the year and is the starting 3B in 2011.
  13. joepepsi
    I wonder if it's time to try Villy as a starter again. In AAA of course, to provide depth and avoid what happened this year. Unlike say, Dillard, Carlos has a good K rate and K:BB ratio. Cott's lists Vargas as having 5.31 years of service time. If that's including this year then the Brewers would have rights to him for 2010. It doesn't seem possible since he's been around forever, but service time is a weird calculation for these journeymen types. I'm OK with letting Weathers go; probably McClung too. But you don't want to be casting too many arms to the wind before Spring Training even begins.
  14. joepepsi
    Prince is still under team control for the 2011 season. It will be his third and last year under arby. Now the Brewers may feel compelled to move him after 2010 because they will get more value by trading him (and saving his arbitration salary) than letting him walk the following year for just picks. I understand Prince is still under control for 2011. But as you point out, it may be in their best interest to trade him after 2010. That's why I used "guaranteed" and made the point they should go for it in 2010.
  15. joepepsi
    Twins over Yankees3-1, Angels over Red Sox 3-2 Angels over Twins in 5 Phillies over Rockies 3-2, Dodgers over Cards 3-1 Dodgers over Phillies in 6 Angels over Dodgers in 7.
  16. joepepsi
    If the Brewers would agree to take Vernon Wells they could probably get him and Halladay for Mike Rivera.
  17. joepepsi
    Of all the post season awards Gold Glove is the most worthless.
  18. joepepsi
    They build their arguments on the previous 3 year's performance, right? This may be a case where the player wants to avoid the hearing. At 2008 level, he's probably worth $7-8 million. I'd take a deal at $5 million and hope he's healthy.
  19. joepepsi
    I would rather poor performance come with an explanation such as an injury, then just a shrug and a "we'll get 'em next year" attitude.
  20. joepepsi
    Gawrsh what a surprise. Young pitcher suddenly loses all command and turns in an ERA 2 points higher than the year before. It's really amazing he got through the entire year without a torn labrum or needing TJ surgery. That's the way he was pitching-like he was injured. I expected to hear something like this all season. Hmmm, really? The fact he was consistently terrible all year didn't make anyone wonder if the shoulder might, indeed, be a problem? Who are these monkeys making decisions? I'm sure that "neck pain" that caused him to miss 3 starts last month had nothing to with this. Didn't stop him from pitching ineffectively at least.
  21. joepepsi
    Gerut's not a free agent. He's still arbitration eligible and won't make that much in arbitration. Well, I consider that good news!
  22. joepepsi
    The Blue Jays had a huge differential between the Pythagorean record and their actual w/l. Actual record was 75-87, Pytha, 84-78. The offense was pretty good, the pitching mediocre, suffering big from injuries. They've average 84 wins from 2005-2008. Last year's 86-76 would have them tied for the AL Central title right now. They would have finished 2-1/2 games behind the White Sox in 2008. They had the 6th best record in the league in 2006. I understand it was probably time for a change, but there hasn't been that big a difference between the Blue Jays and Twins, or White Sox, Tigers, or Indians in the last few years. Or the Brewers, really. You make a good point. However, the difference with the AL East is upper 80's to 90 wins gets you 3rd place. In almost every other division in baseball that kind of win total puts you in the running at least every couple seasons, if not every single year. Getting from 90 to 95+ wins is tremendously expensive and often not worth it, unless you are in a huge market that is guaranteed great attendance and fantastic broadcast revenues.
  23. joepepsi
    It's a wonderful move. I'm not a big closer guy, but if a team plans to compete, they need to have a reliable closer and be willing to overpay. I don't think they are overpaying by much, if any, and I think "going for it" in 2010 is the right move. The Brewers have one more year of Prince guaranteed and should do everything to maximize the win potential. I understand the comparison to Cameron's contract status and that Brewer fans underrate his value. Still, I think he's going to look for $12 million or more next year, plus extra years guaranteed or optioned. I realize he's a great CF'er but I just don't see how that would be worth more wins that Gerut's defense in center. Btw, Gerut hit .279/.343/.459 after the All Star break. If they could re-sign him for less than $4 million that would free up quite of bit Cam's salary for use elsewhere.
  24. joepepsi
    In the end the Brewers were a very good time in nearly every aspect but starting pitching.
  25. joepepsi
    You can break the season down however suits your point, but basically the team was terrible from June 1-August 12, when they went 25-38. From August 13th on, they were .500, and as we all know they went 30-20 in the Spring. They probably weren't going to make the playoffs given the way the Rockies took off, but I think it's clear Parra's and Bush's struggles coupled with the lack of reasonable replacements is what killed the season. Macha may or may not be a bonehead, but he's not the reason they were out of the race by early August.
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