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This is the second piece of a series in which I will take a look at individual decisions that Matt Arnold and his team will have to make over the next couple of months. I'm looking at each as if I were the GM, and will go through the factors that I consider in making the decision. Today: The Brewers and Wade Miley have a mutual contract option. Let's make a call on it. Image courtesy of © Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports If both the Brewers and Wade Miley exercise their contract option for 2024, he will earn $10 million. If either party declines, Miley will receive $1 million and become a free agent. Factor 1: Affordability vs. Performance Miley will be 37 years old next month. When healthy, he's pitched effectively. Unfortunately, over the past four years, that good health has been elusive. He started 23 games in 2023 for the Brewers, posting 2.5 WAR. In 2022 with the Cubs, he pitched in just nine games (eight of them starts) and posted 0.1 WAR. The 2021 season was arguably the best of Miley's career. As a Cincinnati Red, he started 28 games and earned a career-high 5.3 WAR. He was also with the Reds for the 2020 season, but even in that truncated campaign, he was only able to toe the rubber six times (four starts) and posted a -0.1 WAR. His four-year average, then, is 2.0 WAR. Based off that number, the Brewers would be paying Miley $5.1 million per WAR. Milwaukee earned a cumulative WAR of 36.9 in 2023, winning 92 games with a payroll of approximately $135 million. That means that they paid $3.7 million per WAR. Recte's View as the GM: It's a bit higher than I would like to see, particularly considering the risk involved. Factor 2: Risk There's significant risk here. Given his age and injury history, it's completely unreasonable to think that he would give the Brewers a full season of starts. It would be fair to say there is a better-than-even chance that Miley would underperform his four-year average in WAR. Another factor to take into consideration here would be the decision Milwaukee will have to make on Brandon Woodruff. With Woodruff out, it does open up some salary space they would have put into Woodruff and now can go to Miley. Still, it's a gamble if he can give the Brewers enough starts to make it a wise investment. Recte's View as the GM: Very high risk. Factor 3: Roster Fit Milwaukee's starting rotation is very much in flux moving into next season. That may be an understatement. We know Woodruff is (in all likelihood) lost for the season. If the Brewers were ever going to trade Corbin Burnes, this offseason is the last chance to get peak return (we'll talk about that in a subsequent article). Freddy Peralta is the "for sure" man in the rotation. Given the commotion in this group, the Brewers may lean toward bringing Adrian Houser back (he's an arbitration eligible player). Colin Rea will be a free agent, as will Julio Teheran. The bigger names in the farm system (such as Carlos Rodriguez and Jacob Misiorowski) are probably not guys who will break camp with the club, though they could factor in later. Aaron Ashby is coming off of a missed season, and wasn't particularly effective as a starter before the injury. Whew. That's a lot to unpack. One could say that the success or failure of the 2024 season will be tied to the decisions made in building the rotation, and depth when the inevitable injuries hit. That being said, there is plenty of opportunity for Miley if he is brought back. Also, not for nothing, he's a beloved member of the clubhouse and all-around good guy. Recte's View as the GM: There would certainly be a spot for him in the 2024 rotation. At the end of the day, any GM takes many different factors into play when making these decisions. In regard to Miley, I believe the major discussion points are those reviewed above. This isn't a cut-and-dry decision by any means, and the mutual option makes it even murkier. Recte's Final Decision as GM: The Milwaukee Brewers exercise their club option on Miley. The loss of Woodruff almost makes this a certainty. In the grand scheme of things, $10M isn't a massive investment in terms of a starting pitcher with the ability to produce 3-5 WAR. There's always going to be some element of risk in building a roster. I'm certainly aware that I have to limit the risk to salary. In Miley's case, it's a risk I'll have to take. Do you agree with my choice? What would you do with Miley? Let's discuss it in the comments. View full article

This post is the first of a series, in which I will take a look at individual decisions that Matt Arnold and his team will have to make over the next couple of months. I'm looking at each as if I was the GM of the Brewers, and will go through the factors that I consider in making the decision. Today: The Brewers hold a club option on Mark Canha's contract. Let's make a call on it. Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports If the Brewers exercise their 2024 option on Mark Canha, they'll owe him $11.5 million. If they decline it, he'd still cost $2 million as a buyout, so effectively, this is a $9-million decision. Factor 1: Affordability vs. Performance Canha produced 1 WAR over 50 games with Milwaukee. Projected to 162 games, that's 3.2 WAR. With an average of 140 games played over the last three years, his adjusted 2023 projection based off of his WAR with Milwaukee would be 2.8 WAR. Canha's last three years' WAR figures have been 2.2 (2023), 2.5 (2022), and 2.6 (2021). Let's take the average of those four numbers, to come up with a rough projection of 2.5 WAR. Based off that number, the Brewers would be paying him $4.6 million per win next year. Milwaukee earned a cumulative WAR of 36.9 in 2023, winning 92 games with a payroll of approximately $135 million. That means that they paid $3.7 million per WAR in 2023. Canha's $4.6 million-per-win projection for 2024 is certainly higher than the average, but it's not out of whack for a player of his age and experience. Recte's View as the GM: Canha's affordability vs performance is in line with the Brewers' needs. Factor 2: Roster Fit The Brewers acquired Canha for a number of reasons. With Garrett Mitchell injured, they played Sal Frelick most of the time in center field down the stretch. Tyrone Taylor was arguably the best hitter on the team over the last month and played most of the time in right field. They needed a designated hitter--someone to spell Christian Yelich without losing too much from the lineup, and occasionally someone to fill in for Carlos Santana at first base. More importantly, they needed a professional hitter in the mold of Canha, someone who put the ball in play consistently. He certainly did all of those things (and a little more) for the 2023 Brewers. Looking forward to 2024, how would Canha fit into the Brewers lineup? That's a complicated question. Santana will be a free agent, and that leaves a hole at first base. It seems likely the Brewers will try to bring Santana back, as the power in the lineup is lacking. The outfield will be crowded again: Yelich in left field, and some combination of Mitchell, Frelick and Taylor playing in right field. They will also have Blake Perkins available for depth, and don't forget that Jackson Chourio figures to be a factor in the outfield situation at some point very soon. Where does that leave Canha? Well, the designated hitter spot would still be open. The Brewers could use Canha just as they did down the stretch, in a number of roles (but primarily as the designated hitter). Another consideration would be the lack of power in the lineup. Do the Brewers want to allocate the money they would have spent on Canha to finding a truer slugger to fill that spot? It sounds good in theory, but I don't know of too many available sluggers who will make just $11.5 million next year. Recte's View as the GM: There should be plenty of opportunities for Canha on the 2024 team. Only William Contreras and Yelich were close to his .373 OBP with the Brewers, and that's a number that would be extremely hard to replace. At the end of the day, any GM takes many different factors into play when making these decisions. In regard to Canha, I believe the major discussion points are those reviewed above. To me, this is a fairly easy decision. Recte's Final Decision as GM: The Milwaukee Brewers exercise their club option on the contract of outfielder Mark Canha for the 2024 season. Do you agree with my choice? What would you do with Canha? Let's discuss it in the comments. View full article

Coming up on five decades of disappointment for me. It's not funny anymore. It's not unlucky. If there is some being or force that controls events, there is certainly some storyline of punishing Brewers fans. What did we do to deserve this? I get myself so emotionally invested and it's the same old song and dance every single year. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Is an alternate definition of insanity simply being a Milwaukee Brewers fan? I know for sure it feels like this to me:

Not sure it was bad timing, after all. :)

He's been even better since this article was written than I thought he was before.

I cannot say enough about Tyrone Taylor, folks.

They are definitely leaning in on the numbers. Adding Miller was a big surprise, but they are leaning in on metrics. Jesse Winker theoretically is the play against Arizona's lefties. Same with Wiemer over Mitchell.

As the Brewers embark on their postseason run, the prevailing national sentiment seems to be that their offense isn't strong enough to carry them very far. We, who have watched them all year (and especially recently), know better. Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports There's been a lot of talk about the Milwaukee Brewers offense as the club heads into the playoffs. The prevailing opinions seem to be that the Brewers offense is not good enough to make a true World Series run--that is, that the offense that will ultimately be Milwaukee's downfall. It's true that the Brewers offense, over the full course of the season, has not been stellar. Let's take a look at the whole of the 2023 regular-season numbers: They are slightly below the National League average in Runs, finishing eighth in the NL (ironically, 16 runs behind the Arizona Diamondbacks, who finished seventh). When it comes to OPS, the Brewers put up a dismal .705, barely finishing above the San Francisco Giants at 14th in the NL. This was largely driven by their slugging percentage, an incomprehensible .385 (again, just barely above the Giants). Their OBP was better, but still below league-average, at .319 (ninth place in the NL, just behind the Diamondbacks). They hit just 165 homers, 12th in the NL. But looking at a whole season can be misleading. Looking at these numbers is quite eye-opening. The last 28 days have shown a different offensive club. The Milwaukee Brewers of September 2023 are a completely different offense than they were for the majority of the season, not just in numeric value but also in personnel. This was the Brewers Opening Day Lineup this year: There has been a huge shift in the primary offensive personnel since Opening Day. Five of the nine Opening Day starters were not the primary starters in September. Designated Hitter: Jesse Winker was a negative factor on the Brewers offense when healthy, with a dreadful .567 OPS this year. He has not had a single at-bat in the months of August or September. Mark Canha, acquired at the deadline, has been the primary DH over that span, and has produced an .800 OPS (and one magical grand slam). First Base: Carlos Santana replaced Rowdy Tellez, and has produced a .773 OPS as a Brewer, a healthy improvement on the incumbent’s .667 mark. Third Base: Luis Urias was horrific, even after coming back from the Opening Day injury that made Brian Anderson the primary third baseman for most of the first half. Unheralded rookie Andruw Monasterio has, surprisingly, put up an OBP-heavy .678 OPS to go along with steady defense. Milwaukee signed Josh Donaldson for September, in an effort to provide some much-needed power against left-handed pitchers. He posted a .680 OPS, with three homers. That's nothing to shout about--it's nearly identical to Monasterio’s OPS--but Donaldson did, indeed, add the power dimension. Center Field: Garrett Mitchell, as we know, got hurt early. He was replaced primarily by Joey Wiemer, who had a .645 OPS. Wiemer was then essentially replaced by Sal Frelick, who was really good until fading at the end of the season to finish with a .692 OPS. Now Mitchell, and his .761 OPS, looks to be back for the postseason, although probably in a backup role. Right Field: Anderson and his .678 OPS played primarily at third, and in the second half of the season, Tyrone Taylor got the majority of the at-bats here, posting a season OPS of .713. However, Taylor’s second half numbers (as I’ve written about in a previous article) have been borderline elite: To summarize, here are the OPSes for the primary Brewers hitters over the last 28 days: William Contreras: .859 Carlos Santana: .816 Brice Turang: .509 Willy Adames: .875 Andruw Monasterio: .650 Josh Donaldson: .680 Christian Yelich: .950 Sal Frelick: .660 Tyrone Taylor: .935 Mark Canha: .747 Obviously, that doesn't constitute an elite attack, and perhaps 28 days is not much more reliable than the full-season data. It's good to at least ensure that we're studying the right players, though, rather than discounting the team's chances at all on the basis of some empty at-bats from Winker in May or Anderson in July. View full article

Unreal. This is one of the most "Brewer" things ever. Man, we just cannot ever catch a break.

This quote makes all the speculation real

It's mind boggling, really. We're starved for RH bats, so why not bring up Tyler Black or really anything other than sitting on a player they clearly had no confidence in playing.

It's hard to understand why in the world they kept Anderson around this long and just never used him.

If a cat has nine lives, then how many does Tyrone Taylor have? It feels like he's been "on his way out" of the organization for as long as I can remember. Somehow, he always seems to turn it around. Can he keep it up as the pennant race continues? Don't count him out. Image courtesy of Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports Since he was a second round pick in 2012 (yes, over a decade ago), Taylor has been the rare player to have both been overrated and underrated. What do I mean by that? As a second round pick, prospect lists loved him in his first few years in the system (thus the overrating). After he got older, he was overlooked (thus the underrating). It's easy to forget that Taylor was, for all intents and purposes, nearly out of the Brewers' plans in 2019. At the age of 25, he'd just completed the minor league season without receiving a call to the September roster (roster expansion was then up to 40 players). He had just completed an interview with FedEx for an offseason job. Meanwhile, in Milwaukee, the Brewers were fighting for a roster spot. Their outfield depth was being tested. With Trent Grisham already having been brought up unexpectedly, Milwaukee now had Ryan Braun and Lorenzo Cain going through injuries of their own, so they made the call to Taylor. He'd go 4 for 10 in 15 games, mostly serving as a defensive replacement and pinch-runner. The Brewers didn't last long in the playoffs that year (remember Grisham's fielding mishap against Washington?) but Taylor made an impression. In 2020, he played sparingly at times for the Brewers, and again it looked like he would be a roster casualty. However, he made the team in 2021 and hit 12 homers in 93 games. 2022 was a real breakthrough, as he played semi-regularly (120 G, 373 AB, 21 doubles, 3 triples, 17 homers, 51 RBI, .233/.286/.442). This spring, Taylor's status had been in question since he received a PRP injection in February in an effort to avoid Tommy John surgery. He came back in May, and didn't hit at all (.160 in 75 first-half at-bats). He got sent back to the minors on rehab, and came back up at the end of June. Through July, he was just 3 for 21 and once again it seemed that the chapter of Taylor might be over. Once again, Taylor is proving everyone wrong. Taylor has heated up in August, as have the Brewers. For a team that desperately needed both someone to step up in their outfield as well as their lineup against lefties, the man has stepped up. Through games of August 30th, Taylor has played 22 games, 59 at-bats, 13 runs, 16 hits, 5 doubles, 1 triple, 3 homers, 11 RBI, .271/.339/.542. It's been quite possibly the best stretch of his career to date. This is the Tyrone Taylor the Milwaukee Brewers need. Can he keep it up as the pennant race continues? Don't count him out. View full article

Mario Feliciano's surprising DFA and subsequent claim by the Detroit Tigers is no anomaly. It's not Feliciano's fault, though. There simply isn't any such thing as a catching prospect! Matt Arnold spoke about the Brewers catching situation during the Winter Meetings. Not many people noticed at the time, but Arnold failed to mention Mario Feliciano's name when discussing the position. I made a mental note of the omission and filed it for safekeeping. On December 15, when the Brewers designated Feliciano for assignment to clear a 40-man spot for Owen Miller, I immediately recalled the omission by Arnold earlier this month. It seems to me that the Brewers haven't done a great job developing catchers, so I thought it might be fun to go ahead and explore that. Baseball America has been making a Top 30 list of prospects by team since 2001. In recent years, MLB Pipeline and Baseball Prospectus have done the same. I combed through any catchers listed in a Brewers Top 30 Prospects list since 2001 for this quick study. During this time, there have been sixteen different catching prospects to appear on Brewers Top Prospect lists. Five of the sixteen appeared just once. Brian Moon 2001- #27 (Baseball America). Moon never made the majors and played just 55 career games at Triple-A. Cameron Garfield 2011- #22 (Baseball America). Garfield never made the majors and reached only as high as High-A. Froilan Villanueva 2002- #25 (Baseball America). Villanueva never made the majors and reached only as high as High-A. Martin Maldonado 2012- #18 (Baseball America). Finally, a player with some value! Has produced 7.5 career WAR (3.2 for the Brewers). He was traded for Jett Bandy on 12/13/2016. Bandy was billed as a cheaper Maldonado type, but in two years with the Brewers, produced an abysmal -1.1 WAR. Tyler Roberts 2011- #23 (Baseball America). Roberts never made the majors and reached only as high as High-A. Now let's get into the multi-year prospects (sorted by initial year of ranking): Jason Belcher 2001- #11 (BA), 2002- #18 (BA), 2003- #29 (BA), 2004- #30 (BA). Belcher dropped down the prospect lists for four consecutive years after being drafted in the fifth round of the 2000 draft. He ended up playing more outfield than catcher and was jettisoned to the Montreal system in 2004. He toiled through that season and 2005 in the Washington system before playing independent ball from 2006-2010. Kade Johnson 2001- #7 (BA), 2002- #12 (BA). Similarities to Belcher here. Johnson, a second-round pick in 1999, was moved to the outfield in his second year of pro ball and played outfield primarily in 2002. He returned to catcher in 2003, but his star had already faded. He played 134 games at the Double-A level, but that was it, and he was out of the Milwaukee system, making just eight independent league appearances in subsequent years. Lou Palmisano 2004- #10 (BA), 2005- #15 (BA), 2006- #20 (BA). Once upon a time, the community thought Palmisano's emergence meant the Brewers catching woes were solved. Three years of falling down prospect lists, 202 games at the Double-A level, but that was it for Lou. He did crush for Pensacola in 2010 (AA-Indy). However, he couldn't capitalize. Angel Salome 2005- #26 (BA), 2006- #21 (BA), 2007- #11 (BA), 2008- #8 (BA), 2009- #5 (BA), 2010- # 15 (BA). This is the first case of ascension up prospect lists we've seen from a Brewers catching prospect. In 2010 things started to go awry as Salome first took time off in Spring Training with an undisclosed mental issue, then requested a position change to outfield upon returning. Then-GM Doug Melvin said of Salome: "He's not somebody we can count on right now," Melvin said. "Jonathan (Lucroy) is here now, and he can learn here. He's a part of our future. We'll play it this way and see how it goes." Ultimately Salome appeared in 3 games in 2008, with just three at-bats and a career WAR of 0.0. Jonathan Lucroy 2008- #16 (BA), 2009- #10 (BA), 2010- #5 (BA). Lucroy was called up in 2010 when Gregg Zaun was injured, despite having minimal experience above Double-A. He developed into one of the better all-around catchers in the league for a stretch and produced 17.7 career WAR (17.3 for the Brewers). Easily the best catcher the Brewers have developed in the last twenty years. Clint Coulter 2013- #9 (BA), 2014- #11 (BA), 2015-#3 (BA), 2016- #8 (BA), #13 (MLB Pipeline). Coulter was a first-round pick by Milwaukee in the 2012 draft, and immediately there were questions about whether he'd be able to stick behind the plate. By 2015 the Brewers had essentially given up on his catching future and had moved him to the outfield, where his bat was expected to play. It never did. Did you know- Coulter is still active? He played for St. Louis' Triple-A club in Memphis last year and absolutely raked with a .910 OPS in 54 games. He's still only 28 years old, amazingly. Jacob Nottingham 2016- #10 (MLB Pipeline), 2017- #14 (BA, MLB Pipeline), 2018- #23 (BA), #27 (MLB Pipeline), 2019- #10 (BA), #16 (MLB Pipeline). Once upon a time, he was the prize for Khris "Krush" Davis (with apologies to Bubba Derby). Nottingham, like Coulter, was considered a bat-first catcher mainly because of his tall stature and big frame. It seemed designed for first base. It turns out he couldn't hit, either (though, to be fair, he improved leaps and bounds as a catcher). Fifty-three career MLB games over four years. He produced 0.5 WAR (0.7 for the Brewers). Mario Feliciano 2017- #24 (MLB Pipeline), #28 (BA), 2018- #15 (MLB Pipeline), #20 (BA), 2019- #9 (BP), #14 (MLB Pipeline), #23 (BA), 2020- #2 (FG), #3 (MLB Pipeline), #5 (BP), #6 (BA), 2021- #5 (MLB Pipeline), #7 (BA), 2022- #18 (BA), #22 (MLB Pipeline). The wild variations here are telling. He was as high as #2 (FanGraphs, 2020) and as low as #28 (Baseball America, 2017). Has produced 0.0 WAR in his three major league games over two seasons (4 at-bats, one hit). I find it puzzling that the Brewers essentially skipped him over Double-A (only three games there). His career minor league numbers aren't horrible (.257/.315/.388/.702), but not a single skill stands out. Good luck, Detroit. Payton Henry 2018- #28 (BA), 2019- #10 (MLB Pipeline), #12 (BA), 2020- #16 (MLB Pipeline, BA), #18 (FG), 2021- #18 (MLB Pipeline). Henry was traded for John Curtiss at the 2021 Trade Deadline. Unfortunately, Curtiss was immediately injured and made no impact on the Brewers. Henry didn't make any impact on the Marlins either. He posted a -0.1 WAR and was traded back to Milwaukee on November 10, 2022. Nick Kahle 2020- #17 (BA), #19 (MLB Pipeline), #23 (FG); 2021- #17 (BA), #19 (MLB Pipeline). Kahle dropped entirely off all the prospect lists in 2022, as he only played 26 games (22 at Biloxi- AA). Jeferson Quero 2020- #17 (MLB Pipeline), #19 (BA); 2021- #9 (MLB Pipeline), #10 (BA); 2022- #7 (BA). It's very early in the young Quero's career. He's only played in 20 games at High-A Wisconsin. Overall in his two minor league seasons, he has an impressive slash line of .290/.357/.448/.806. If this article has yet to give you pause on anointing Quero as the next great catcher, I am still determining what will. In summary, these guys have produced a total of 25.6 MLB WAR. If you take Lucroy and Maldonado away, the other fourteen players have produced a total of 0.4 WAR. In the 1990s, Gary Huckabay of Baseball Prospectus coined the term TINSTAAPP (There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect); I'd like to introduce the term TINSTAACP (There Is No Such Thing As A Catching Prospect). View full article

It's been quite some time since the Milwaukee Brewers have had multiple promising young position players developed from draft to the majors on the horizon. Garrett Mitchell, Joey Wiemer, Sal Frelick and Brice Turang are four promising youngsters that we haven't seen the likes of since the late 2000's when Ryan Braun, Rickie Weeks, Prince Fielder and Corey Hart were breaking into the big leagues. Back in 2007, the Brewers top prospect was Ryan Braun. Braun, the #5 overall pick in the 2005 MLB Amateur Draft, ascended to the big leagues in quick order. 2005: Rookie Ball, 10 games A Ball, 37 games 2006: High A Ball, 59 games AA Ball, 59 games (AZFL- 25 games) 2007: AAA Ball- 34 games Not counting the Arizona Fall League, Braun progressed through five levels of minor league baseball in just 199 games, with a Minor League slash line of .312/.375/.573/.948. He then went on to win the NL Rookie of the Year Award in 2007 in his Age 23 season. Milwaukee has a prospect right now that is following a similar ascension through the minor league system. That prospect is Sal Frelick. Frelick, the #15 overall pick in the 2021 MLB Amateur Draft, has moved through the Brewers system even quicker than Braun: 2021: Rookie Ball, 4 games A Ball, 16 games High A Ball, 15 games 2022: High A Ball, 21 games AA Ball, 52 games AAA Ball, 46 games Frelick has 154 career minor league games, including the 46 at AAA Nashville last season (which is 12 more AAA games than Braun had). His Minor League slash line: .331/.406/.477/.882. He seems as certain as certain can be to make his major league debut and play a fairly big role in his age 23 season. The similarities aren't perfect, admittedly. Braun thrived on power while Frelick is more of an average/OBP type player. That doesn't change the fact that their origination (advanced college player), progression (just over two minor league seasons), and success (lots!) all are eerily similar. We can only hope that Frelick enjoys as much success as Braun had during his career with Milwaukee, with none of the drama. The opportunities are there for the young outfielder in 2023. Mitchell, Tyrone Taylor and Jesse Winker figure to view for playing time with Frelick. It wouldn’t be a stretch to expect Frelick to earn 400 or so at-bats as a baseline, even though the possibility he starts in AAA to start the season does exist. A lot of fans clamored for his callup last September, and that move would have been easily justified by the front office. His “grinder” style of play should endear him to both fans and manager Craig Counsell. Keeping Frelick down too long in 2023 will be harder to justify for a franchise that claims they want “more bites of the apple”. Sal Frelick is too good of a player to keep off the big league team for much longer, just like Ryan Braun was in 2007.

What is the song that plays when Pomeranz comes in to pitch? Seems weird. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk