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LouisEly

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Everything posted by LouisEly

  1. LouisEly
    If you would have read the articles I linked you would have saw that 180 miles is on the low end of range. The Chevy Equinox, expected to be in the $30K's, is expected to have a range of around 300 miles. The Audi Q4 eTron is 250 miles. The Fisker Ocean 250 for the low end model, 350 for higher end models. The Ford F-150 Lightning AWD version is 300 miles, the Chevy Silverado is expected to come in around 400 miles, the Ram 1500 up to 500 miles. Now, cold-weather range may be less as the heater runs off of the battery. To which I say, wear a jacket and gloves. And who said rental cars cost $100? (Mods - perhaps you should split the EV discussion into it's own separate thread)
  2. LouisEly
    This is simply not true. The EV's that are coming to market in the next 2-3 years almost all have ranges well over 200 miles and real world ranges of 180+ miles. Hell, gas tanks only get ~350 miles. EV's aren't far behind that. You just have to go out of your way to a gas station instead of conveniently charging at home.
  3. LouisEly
    What % of trips that people take are longer than the average 200-mile real-world range on an EV? And why couldn't people rent ICE cars for the few times a year they would have to take those trips? It's also quite the luxury item to spend $5,000/year on gas driving 15,000-20,000 miles per year on top of $6,000-$10,000/year on vehicle payments. Spend $1000/year on a rental car for the 2-3 long trips per year you take.
  4. LouisEly
    Some interesting guys in there that MLB.com has different ranks on. Regarding Locklear, I didn't give him much of a look because of being a RHH 1B, but given that he has an above-average arm I'm wondering if he could stick in a corner OF spot? Likely LF, but he has a 45 run grade (not terrible) and he swiped 14 bases over the last two seasons so if there's a chance he can be an average defensive RF I would not mind if he was pick #72 and certainly would be OK at #102. Tyler Cleveland and Spencer Giesting would be interesting 5th-6th round picks.
  5. LouisEly
    The 2021 stimulus payments are not being used for food and gas right now, and those two things are about as inelastic as you can get for demand anyway, thus the 2021 stimulus has little to do with inflation right now. Gas prices peaked in June, thus why inflation spiked. Gas price affects the cost of every tangible good, and no Fed action is going to have any significant impact on the demand for/price of gas. Gas prices are up almost 50% over a year ago. Diesel prices are up over 60%. That's what's driving inflation. That, and housing which is a supply issue and also inelastic in demand because whether own or rent, people have to live somewhere. Either home prices go up or rent goes up, or both if supply is too low.
  6. LouisEly
    Did you abandon Chicago and head back to WI?
  7. LouisEly
    I'm going to go with Garrett Crochet as the best draft pick in rounds 30+ that they didn't sign. While Giambi and Pence are good choices, Crochet was the 11th overall pick in 2020 and went straight to the majors. No doubt that next year or the year after the White Sox will stretch him out and put him back in the rotation.
  8. LouisEly
    I'm going to go with Garrett Crochet as the best draft pick in rounds 30+ that they didn't sign. While Giambi and Pence are good choices, Crochet was the 11th overall pick in 2020 and went straight to the majors. No doubt that next year or the year after the White Sox will stretch him out and put him back in the rotation.
  9. LouisEly
    MLB updated their rankings and has Gabriel Hughes at #26. I'm getting some Corbin Burnes/Brandon Woodruff vibes from their scouting report, certainly a similar size/build. I don't think he'll still be there at #27, but if he is, I would be elated with him as the pick. One other thing about Hjerpe is that he only gave up 3 HRs on the year on over 400 batters faced. Last year he only gave up 6 HRs against 325 batters faced.
  10. LouisEly
    In the last month, natural gas is down over 20%. Copper is down over 12% in the last month, down 30% from March highs. Wheat is down 15% in the last month, over 30% from May highs. Corn is down almost 15% in the last month. Lumber is almost 1/3rd of what it was early March.
  11. LouisEly
    You mentioned Jordan Beck earlier as a guy who probably won't make it to MIL at #27. Jordan Beck's BB & K rates in 2022: 12.5%, 21% Ivan Melendez's BB & K rates in 2022: 16.5%, 16% Yes, Beck has more defensive value, but If Melendez will strikeout 150 times in a season, Beck will strikeout 180.
  12. LouisEly
    Keep in mind that when prices started rising a year ago the unemployment rate was still 6%. The unemployment rate actually rose slightly from April to May of last year and was mostly stagnant from March-June, so there was concern that raising rates would cause an increase in unemployment. The government needed to get people back to work so that they didn't have to have another stimulus. In 1994 it was an easier call because the unemployment rate had been steadily declining and the peak unemployment rate after the 1991-1992 recession was half of the peak unemployment rate in 2020. Oil prices also started falling in October of last year, so there was reason to believe that inflation would subside. Then Russia.
  13. LouisEly
    #27 - Justin Campbell, RHP, Oklahoma State; Cooper Hjerpe, LHP, Oregon State; Drew Gilbert, CF, Tennessee #63 - Brycen Mautz, LHP, San Diego; Max Wagner, 3B, Clemson; Eric Brown, SS, Coastal Carolina #72 - Jacob Reimer, 3B, HS; Bradley Loftin, LHP, HS; Ivan Melendez, 1B, Texas #102 - Colby Holcombe, RHP, CC; Trey Lipscomb, 3B, Tennessee; Gavin Kilen, SS, HS #132 - Troy Melton, RHP, San Diego State; Malachi Witherspoon, RHP, HS; Cade Hunter, C, Virginia Tech #162 - Luc Lipcius, 1B, Tennessee (senior sign), Matt Wood, C, Penn State, Cory Lewis, RHP, UC-Santa Barbara #192 - Zach Morgan, C, Fresno State; Steven Zobac, RHP, Cal; Orion Kerkering, RHP, South Florida
  14. LouisEly
    I don't foresee a dramatic drop in oil prices for a long time. There is a lot of pressure on Europe to divest away from Russian oil/gas and it will need to come from somewhere. I heard all but two OPEC countries are maxed out on production with Saudi Arabia being one of the two which gets into other political tensions. Even if the economy slows down, China is still getting back on line which will increase demand. Oil may drop under $100, but I don't think it will see under $80 for years. Right now the US has over 700 oil rigs online and climbing, but that is still less than half of how many were online in 2014. If more rigs come online that will help pipelines even if prices drop. And the US dipped into their oil reserve and at some point will need to restock it. I moved some things around to Energy Transfer. It's down 10% over the last two days. Several analysts expect it to double to $20 in a year or so, and they've said their goal is to increase the dividend to well over $1.00 by end of year. Right now it's yielding almost 8% on a dividend of $0.80.
  15. LouisEly
    Sort of agree with you FTC. The housing market having a big slowdown is going to help with commodity prices - lumber, oil byproducts, etc. Also labor. The quotes I've been getting for rebuilding my rooftop deck are 50% higher or more than the quotes I got three years ago. A slowdown in housing construction and building projects will help inflation, which is driving the instability in the market. Companies that serve the lower end of the economy will get hit hard. But what we've seen the last few years is the the lower end of the economy doesn't drive the economy. Once summer is over and the trips that people booked months ago are taken, travel and hospitality will get hit in the fall. That reduction in demand should help gas prices. Inflation may increase the labor participation rate. That will go a long way in filling needed jobs, the labor shortage, rising labor costs, and sustaining the economy from going into recession. Oil prices are the big thing. Gas prices drive the cost of almost all tangible goods as they need to be shipped. Seems like there are similarities to 2008 when all other investments were tanking so investors piled their money into oil futures which shot up gas prices.
  16. LouisEly
    That, and in baseball you can't trade up or down. If you don't think a guy will be there with your next pick you have to take him. Maybe a guy you project to go later but before your next pick at $500k below slot is a better overall draft strategy execution than BPA who you know is going to want over slot.
  17. LouisEly
    UW-Madison has a supply chain management program, both MBA and undergrad. Maybe consider an intern from the MBA program?
  18. LouisEly
    That may be part of it, but they were also very familiar with Turang as he was on some type of summer/travel team that the Brewers sponsored/coached. Can't remember the exact relationship, but there was a connection between a team Turang was on and the Brewers.
  19. LouisEly
    So how do you expect someone like Braun, who was the 5th overall pick in the draft, and Fielder, who was the 7th overall pick in the draft, to be available with the 27th overall pick in the draft? How many guys like them are available in any draft? And BTW, Fielder is 5'11".
  20. LouisEly
    It helps if you read a scouting report: At 5-foot-8, Williams might be the smallest player on our Draft rankings, but he's also a favorite gut-feel guy for a lot of scouts. One crosschecker called him the best hitter on the summer showcase circuit, where he raked despite an injury to his right shoulder. The Mississippi State recruit could factor into the first round of the Draft, especially to a club that thinks he can stay at shortstop. Kirby Puckett was 5'8".
  21. LouisEly
    Looking at gas prices and reminding myself that I've had to go into an office for work once since March 16th, 2020.
  22. LouisEly
    If Wisconsinite Connor Prielipp is still there, do they take a chance on him? Does his injury history push him down to the Brewers? Pipeline has him at #24. The Brewers like up-the-middle guys so you can't rule out Zach Neto or Frelick-clone Drew Gilbert. Speaking of clones, there's Ethan Small clone Cooper Hjerpe, who in 84 IP this season has given up 57 hits, walked 17 (1.8/9 IP, and has improved every year), and struck out 135 (14.5/9 IP) against Pac-12 competition. If I'm handicapping it, I'm ranking them in order as Campbell, Hjerpe, Gilbert, then Neto with Prielipp as my "if he's still available". If I have a "don't be surprised by" guy, it would be Hjerpe's teammate Jacob Melton.
  23. LouisEly
    MLB Pipeline currently has Campbell at #34. From their scouting profile: Hitters just don't seem to see the ball well against Campbell, who has a 6-foot-7 frame and deceptive mechanics with an unusual approach angle. His fastball sits around 91 mph and touches 96, and it features high spin rates and running action that generate a lot of harmless contact. He has a pair of solid secondary pitches that he'll use against both left-handers and right-handers: an upper-70s changeup with even more horizonal movement than his heater and a mid-70s curveball that creates a lot of empty swings and groundouts. Not seeing the ball well... deceptive mechanics... high spin rates... a lot of harmless contact... solid changeup... sounds a lot like the Brewers type of pitching prospect. On the season in 94 IP Campbell has given up 73 hits, walked 23 (2.2/9 IP) and K'd 133 (12.7/9) for a Power-5 Oklahoma State. I would not at all be upset with him as the pick at #27.
  24. LouisEly
    Given the typical political bickering and budget bumbling and time it takes to get things done, the answer is yes.
  25. LouisEly
    Given the typical political bickering and budget bumbling and time it takes to get things done, the answer is yes.
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