Every year I say I'm not going to do this again, but who am I kidding - it's tradition. Not sure how this will look in the new format (probably painful), but here goes. Mods, feel free to break off into a separate thread for predictions.
Heading into the draft, I think the biggest questions that will affect who the Packers draft and when are at offensive tackle. Do they think Bakh will be ready to go? What is the prognosis of Jenkins returning, and will he be able to backup at OT when he returns or will the knee not be ready for that? Do the Packers believe that Newman and Van Lanen, both of whom are listed as “T/G” on the Packers.com roster, can actually play RT? Do they see Nijman long-term and will they be able to sign him long-term? With only nine OL on the roster – two of whom are exclusively centers – the Packers will need to address depth with multiple picks; the question is which rounds and which positions. If Bakh is healthy they don’t need starters – they’re set with Bakh, Runyan, Myers, Newman, and Nijman while waiting for Jenkins to return. But they will need backups capable of playing multiple positions.
Between less players participating in testing at the combine and less info available about testing at pro days, guessing the later round picks and UDFAs is getting more difficult. But here goes.
1st round (#22): Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State – the Packers need at WR is well-documented, and so is Aaron Rodgers lack of trust in rookies. He needs an excellent route runner who knows where he is supposed to be and Olave is the best in the draft class at that. As smooth as they get, and has the athleticism to get separation at all three levels. Needs to improve his strength, but they can move him around in the formation. Ohio State expects their WRs to be good run blockers too, and Gutes personally attended OSU’s pro day. (replaces Davante Adams)
If he’s still available: Drake London, WR, USC – two-sport athlete good enough to play on the USC basketball team, he has the WR size that the Packers covet. Elite catch radius and also at using strength and leverage to create separation. Basketball background makes body positioning and high-pointing the ball natural. In 7.5 games last year had 88 catches for over 1,000 yards when the opponents knew he was getting the ball and also broke 22 tackles. He may not “take the top off” the defense, but this draft has plenty of guys who can do that who they can get later.
Don’t be surprised if it’s: Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia – the Packers covet elite athleticism, and Wyatt demonstrated that by running a 4.77-40 at the combine. Disruptive, great lateral movement, high effort at chasing down the play. Like other Georgia defenders his stats were deceivingly low because of so many playmakers in their front seven; PFF gave him a 90.1 grade and ranked him first in positively graded play rate against the run and 10th in pass-rush win rate. DT isn’t nearly as deep as WR is, so the Packers may go with athleticism at DT and address WR later.
1st round (#28): Arnold Ebiketie, Edge, Penn State – the Packers value pass rush and Ebiketie is one of the best in this draft class as evidenced by his 90.5 PFF pass rushing grade and 52 pressures. Ebiketie brings urgency off of the snap and can quickly penetrate gaps, as evidenced by leading the Big Ten in TFLs. Athletic, explosive (38” vertical), excellent pass rusher who also has special teams experience; Badgers fans will remember he blocked the FG against them, one of two blocked field goals on the season. Gutes personally attended Penn State’s pro day. (replaces Za’Darius Smith)
If he’s still available: Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas – Burks is a WR in a RB’s body, and it shows in his brand of play as he averaged almost 10 YAC. Burks has huge hands and great body control and leverage, allowing him to overcome average athleticism. He’s also great at tracking deep balls, which may come from having been an all-state centerfielder. Any questions about his ability can be answered by looking at the Alabama tape where he had 8 catches for 179 yards and 2 TDs despite everyone knowing he was getting the ball. Even if they go WR at #22, I could see them doubling up on Burks or taking Burks at #22 if Olave and London are gone.
Don’t be surprised if it’s: Bernhard Raimann, OT, Central Michigan – former TE who moved to OT before the 2020 season, Raimann is just scratching the surface of what he can do. The instincts and technique aren’t quite there yet, but he has the natural quickness and footwork to set out to NFL edge speed and has the strength to anchor on the bull rush. The Packers have to replace two OTs, Bakh may not be all the way back yet, and Nijman will be a RFA after the season and if he plays as well as he did last year they may not be able to afford him long-term. PFF grade of 94.6 last year.
2nd round (#53): George Pickens, WR, Georgia – He’s a first round talent, but his injury history will push him down; normally a 4.47 40 at the combine is a great time but this year it was fairly average and perhaps speaks to not being 100% back from the ACL injury, and he didn’t run the agility drills. Needs to improve play strength, route-running, and show confidence in his knee to get separation and thus I don’t think he goes as high as some think, but I think the Packers go for the upside here and could use one of their 4th round picks to move up to get him or trade down from #28 and grab him early in the 2nd. Lowest drop rate (2.7%) of any of the top WR prospects. (replaces MV-S)
If he’s still available: Boye Mafe, Edge, Minnesota – Mafe has explosive traits, but I don’t think he will go as high as some think because of a lack of instincts which usually translates into a lack of production. He won’t be required to start though, so the Packers can develop his explosive traits in a backup role like they did with Rashan Gary.
Don’t be surprised if it’s: Quay Walker, ILB, Georgia – Walker didn’t test as well as some expected, but he is instinctive with quick recognition and response and plays disciplined, team-oriented football. Perhaps his best calling card is his size (6’4”, 240) which lends to covering TEs and playing either inside or outside.
2nd round (#59): DeMarvin Leal, DT, Texas A&M – Leal didn’t quite meet the lofty expectations set for him this year and in his testing numbers, but was very productive with 8.5 sacks and 12.5 TFLs. A bit on the lean size, but he was an early entrant and is on the younger side. Best fit might be 3-4 DE, but he can be a designated pass rusher for a year while he develops. Gutey also seems to like players from the SEC (replaces Kingsley Keke)
If he’s still available: Jalen Pitre, S/CB, Baylor – if you go back to Joe Barry’s introductory press conference, he talked about the importance of the nickel position and that’s what Pitre starred at in Baylor’s “Star” position. Doesn’t have the size to be the big nickel, but in the pros the nickel is much more of a DB than LB. Great agility, had one of the top 3-cone times at the combine, and is described as a “coach’s dream” with outstanding intangibles and football IQ.
Don’t be surprised if it’s: Drake Jackson, Edge, USC - Jackson was a bit miscast in the trainwreck that was 2021 USC as they had him dropping off in coverage more than he should have been, dampening his pass rushing stats. But he is a great pass rusher (pass rush grade of 87.7 last year) with excellent bend and put up great agility times at USC's pro day. Can't find whether he actually ran the 40 at his personal pro day, but he just turned 21 and the Packers have shown affinity to younger players who may not be fully developed.
3rd round (#92): Zyon McCollum, CB, Sam Houston State – the Packers need depth at CB, and bringing back Douglas allows them to take a higher-ceiling prospect they can develop and they don’t get any higher ceiling than McCollum. Elite size (6’2”, 200), athleticism (4.33 40), explosiveness (39.5” vertical, 132 broad jump) and agility – his 3-cone and short-shuttle times were tops of any player at any position at the combine. Has some technique flaws, but takes to coaching extremely well and has elite intangibles and leadership. Wouldn’t be surprised if he’s gone by this point, but if he’s there I don’t think he makes it past the Packers here. (replaces Chandon Sullivan)
If he’s still available: Abraham Lucas, OT, Washington State – Lucas answered any questions about his athleticism and agility at the combine, scoring top times in the agility drills and a sub-5.00 40. Lucas’ pass protection is ahead of his run blocking, but that’s OK for the Packers; in 477 pass block snaps last year he gave up zero sacks and one hit per PFF. Has great size and length, but plays a little upright, had issues with false start penalties, and needed TE help with speed rushers (the latter two may be related).
Don’t be surprised if it’s: Troy Anderson, ILB, Montana State – Anderson started his career at RB and QB (and was all-conference at QB in 2018), then moved to LB where he also was 1st team all-conference. Anderson has the long speed (4.42 40) but doesn’t have the instincts at this point due to being a recent switch to LB. Could also be a jumbo RB or FB in short-yardage situations. Developmental guy with high upside if they believe in Barnes for the short-term.
4th round (#132): Aaron Hansford, ILB, Texas A&M – converted WR who is athletically gifted and has smooth change of direction and sideline to sideline range. Didn’t become a starter until 2020 and is still learning the position and recognizing play design and blocking schemes. Rocked up w/8% body fat, he ran a 4.6 at their pro day. Not a finished product by any means, he still has upside, has flashed blitzing ability, and Gutey seems to like guys from the SEC. (replaces Oren Burks)
If he’s still available: Sam Williams, Edge, Ole Miss – another athletic freak who blew up the combine with his 4.46 speed, Williams was first team all-SEC this past season and was fifth in the nation with 12.5 sacks and 10th in the nation with four forced fumbles. He’s getting knocked down for two things – a sexual battery charge in 2020 that was dropped, and for his run defense. There was a reason for the latter though – they often played him at the 4i-tech instead of OLB or 7-tech where he projects to as a pro.
Don’t be surprised if it’s: Kellen Diesch, OT, Arizona State – the Packers need to replace two OTs and may use two picks on them even though they don’t need a starter right now. Diesch has outstanding athleticism and quickness, but doesn’t have the functional length (short-ish arms) and strength at this point. Good developmental prospect, and Gutes personally attended Arizona State’s pro day.
4th round (#140): Zach Thomas, T/G, San Diego State – some have Thomas projected to guard, but I think he demonstrated more than enough at the combine and pro day to have a future at OT. Has the length (6’5”, 34” arms, 83” wingspan) and athleticism (4.96 40, 7.40 3-cone, 4.65 short-shuttle) that are more than adequate for the outside. His 1.67 split in the 40 is top-5 all-time for OTs, and PFF graded him out at 87.2 last season. Excellent pad level, and has room to add more muscle and improve his body composition. He can move inside if needed, but I think can stay outside and fits the Packers need for OL who can play multiple positions. (replaces Billy Turner)
If he’s still available: Jelani Woods, TE, Virginia – former QB who put up some impressive combine and pro day performances, Woods had good production but is still a bit raw with technique and the tape doesn’t quite match the athleticism. There is upside here, and IMO the Packers don’t need a TE, but he might be too good to pass up here.
Don’t be surprised if it’s: Eyioma Uwazurike, DT, Iowa State – a mountain of a man (6’6”, 319) with length (35” arms, 86” wingspan), perhaps nobody took advantage of his extra year more than he did having accounted for 9 sacks and 12 TFLs this past season. Explosive as well, had the top vertical (33”) at the combine for DL and his 4.75 in the short shuttle is impressive for a man his size. Pad level gets away from him, but is the ideal 5-tech.
5th round (#171): Tanner Conner, WR/H-Back, Idaho State – two-sport athlete who also competes in the hurdles on the track team, he’s perhaps the most athletic freak in the draft. Played WR but has the size of a LB (6’3”, 230) and ran a 4.37 at Washington's pro day with a 40” vertical. A bit raw on the route-running, but nobody his size runs like he does and he has an elite work ethic. Could easily add a few pounds and move to H-Back, but wherever he ends up playing he’ll be a matchup nightmare. Excels at special teams and as a senior captain played on as many special teams units as he could. Will be a special teams demon while he develops. (replaces ESB)
If he’s still available: JT Woods, S, Baylor – former track star with sprinter’s speed, he ran a blistering 4.36 40 at the combine and was productive as well with nine interceptions over the last two seasons. He’s versatile and played in all of Baylor’s safety positions, but had too many busted assignments in single high coverage, had issues with angles and finishing tackles, and subsequently didn’t have a good PFF grade last year (67.0).
Don’t be surprised if it’s: Velus Jones, Jr., WR/RB/KR, Tennessee – flashed big-time speed, but never really put it together as a WR until his sixth season in college. Outstanding returner, the Packers need reliability and production back there. Note how I listed RB – he has decent size (6’0”, 203), and the Packers could see him in a Tyler Ervin type of role on offense.
7th round (#228): Ryan Van Demark, OT, Connecticut – has outstanding length (35.5” arms, 85.5” wingspan), but has concerns about strength and playing too upright. He answered questions about his agility and athleticism at their pro day, showing great footwork and a 7.39 3-cone time, which is great for his height and size, along with adequate strength. The Packers need to replace two OTs, and I think they’ll draft two. (replaces Dennis Kelly)
If he’s still available: Samori Toure, WR, Nebraska – Badgers fans will remember Toure being wide open during the Nebraska game, and Toure then did the same thing at the Shrine game. Toure transferred from Montana where he dominated FCS, and showed he could do the same at FBS. Outstanding route runner who is fluid in and out of his breaks, creating great separation. Reportedly ran in the 4.4’s at their pro day. Not as big as advertised (6’1”, 191), but puts in great effort in blocking.
Don’t be surprised if it’s: Eric Johnson, DT, Missouri State – small school prospect with good size (6’4”, 299) and length (34” arms) who ran an impressive 4.86 40 at his pro day. Impressed enough at the NFLPA Collegiate Bowl to earn an invite to the Senior Bowl, and carries almost no bad weight on him. With only five DL on the roster they could double-up with one pick early and one late.
7th round (#249): Joey Blount, S, Virginia – productive four-year starter who accumulated 9 interceptions, 3 forced fumbles, 19.5 TFLs and 5.5 sacks over his career, for some reason he was left off of the combine list but more than made up for it at their pro day. Ran a 4.38 40, 6.76 3-cone, 4.16 short shuttle, 30” vertical, and 20 reps on the bench. (replaces Henry Black)
If he’s still available: Kyron Johnson, LB, Kansas - Johnson was a bit miscast as an OLB at Kansas as he doesn't have the size to play edge, but teams will be looking at him as an off-ball LB after he ran a 4.40 at his pro day with a 39" vertical. 2nd team all Big 12 last year with eight career forced fumbles. At the minimum will be a great special teams player, and gave Abraham Lucas fits in Senior Bowl practices.
Don’t be surprised if it’s: Faion Hicks, CB, Wisconsin – UW’s defense finished fifth in the nation in passer rating against, and the play of their corners was a big reason for it. Hicks blew up their pro day, running a 4.37 40, 3.94 short shuttle (which would have tied McCollum for best of any player at any position at the combine), 6.78 3-cone, and left many wondering why he wasn’t at the combine. Hicks is better suited for the slot than the outside where he played at UW.
7th round: (#258): Scott Patchan, Edge, Colorado State – over the last two years Patchan was one of the most productive edge rushers in FBS, accumulating 17 sacks and 27 TFL in 16 games. Typical high-motor guy, there were questions about his athleticism that he answered at their pro day – he put up 29 reps on the bench, which would have been tops among all edge rushers at the combine, and ran a very good 40. (replaces Rivers/Hamilton/Mercilus)
If he’s still available: Juanyeh Thomas, S, Georgia Tech – Thomas is more of a box safety/big nickel, but he did that well. Three year starter who forced six fumbles in his career, his best opportunity might be on special teams where he excelled. He’s returned 34 kicks in his career, including taking two to the house as a freshman, plus a handful of punts.
Don’t be surprised if it’s: Isaac Taylor-Stewart, CB, USC – size/length/speed prospect who didn’t always play up to his ability at USC, he’s worth a flyer for his traits but needs to improve his technique. Could become an effective press man corner.
Players who I'll probably regret leaving out: George Karlaftis, Channing Tindall, Romeo Doubs, Dominique Robinson, Carson Wells
UDFAs:
Zander Horvath, RB/H-Back, Purdue
Bryant Koback, RB, Toledo
Andrew Ogletree, TE, Youngstown St.
Jack Sorenson, WR, Miami (OH)
Jalen Virgil, WR/RB/KR, Appalachian State
Alec Anderson, T/G, UCLA
Josh Seltzner, G, Wisconsin
John Ojukwu, OT, Boise St.
Daron Bland, CB, Fresno State
Tayler Hawkins, CB/S, San Diego State
Scott Nelson, S, Wisconsin
Tariq Carpenter, S/LB, Georgia Tech
Storey Jackson, LB, Liberty
Aaron Mosby, OLB, Fresno State
Ralfs Rusins, DT, Liberty
Kevin Atkins, DT, Fresno State
Blake Hayes, P, Illinois