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LouisEly

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Everything posted by LouisEly

  1. LouisEly
    So essentially, option #3. You look to move Garza, maybe Guerra if the return is right and three of Hader/Woodruff/Jungmann/Lopez are looking ready, and consider moving a Cordell or a Jungmann/Lopez if you really need something. But 28 (Nelson/Peralta) is not old for a starting pitcher by any stretch of the imagination. Remember, last year the Cubs youngest starter was 26 and four of the five were over the age of 30. In the last 20 years I think only two teams have won the World Series with a pitching staff with an average age under 28 (the 2003 Marlins were the youngest at 26.1, but they trashed the young arms of Willis and Beckett in the process).
  2. LouisEly
    I'm looking at buying a house that is around $550K. If I put 20% down ($110K) the loan is $440K which is a jumbo loan and the interest rate is around 4.375%. If I put down 25% (additional $27K down) it's just under the jumbo threshold and the interest rate is 4%; but if I pay for two points (additional $7K) the interest rate is 3.875%. The points are a lot less than putting down an extra 5%, but the extra 5% goes towards the principal whereas the points are a cost and the points require you to stay in the property for ~7 years to break even. Not sure which is the better option.
  3. LouisEly
    Agreed on Perry. He's a talent when he's healthy, but it seems he never is 100%. Even last year, his legs finally were healthy and then he breaks his hand. The Packers are really high on Kentrell Brice and Marwin Evans, and I think they think Brice right now is 95% of the player Hyde is/was for a fraction of the cost, and with another year of development can be as good or better. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if Randall's days as a corner are over and he moves back to safety or into Hyde's hybrid role. It's also a bumper crop year for CB and S in the draft. I would not be surprised at all if they take two corners.
  4. LouisEly
    Another thing to keep in mind - you never make or lose money on anything until you sell it. Doesn't matter if they are underwater as long as they can make the payments (or rent it to someone who can make the payments for you). Keep making the payments and reduce the principal, eventually it will be paid off. Many people who were underwater in 2009 are now above what they bought it for in 2006/2007 because the lack of home building from 2009-2013 has created a housing shortage. But if you didn't know the real estate market was going to crash in 2007/2008, you weren't paying attention.
  5. LouisEly
    Warren Buffet and others have said repeatedly that the best option for the average investor is to find a low-fee S&P 500 fund and put your money there. Those are generally the most profitable companies - let them do your work for you. The time it would take for you to do the research versus the fact that there are always people who know more than you... odds are you won't win by trying to pick stocks. The exception is if you know an industry really well and can spot an overreaction by the market. For example, when the market got scared of airlines reducing fares and overreacted to lower $/seat/mile predictions, American Airlines stock dropped to $33. That meant it had a P/E of around 2.5; the average P/E of a S&P 500 firm is around 13-15. Total overreaction, and I bought a bunch of AAL at $33 and now it is around $44 even after a significant pullback this week - it was around $47. A nice 33% gain over less than six months. As for real estate, there is always an inefficency in the market. A ton of apartments - most being one or two bedroom - have been built in the last 3 years. There has been very little building of single family homes or duplexes with 3+ bedrooms in the last 8+ years; you just can't find them on the market. If you can find one you will have no problem renting it, and that will be the case for some time. I would not want to own older 2-bedroom apartments right now.
  6. LouisEly
    Yes, you can trade for international bonus slots. The bonus pool technically has three rounds, and in each round each team has a "slot", and each slot has a value, similar to the draft. But unlike the draft you can trade these slots.
  7. LouisEly
    I wouldn't put Hibbert, Bogut, Asik, and pretty much all of the big centers in the game in the same arena as Duncan, Olajuwon, Shaq, Kareem, Robinson, Ewing, Garnett, or even Dwight Howard (in his 20's). It's not that big men have gone out of style - it's that there aren't any great ones right now. It has become more of a perimeter game, and longer shots create longer rebounds, but if the next Duncan/Olajuwon/Shaq/Robinson/etc. comes along they will dominate just as much if not more because there is no one who can defend them.
  8. LouisEly
    It's MOAR outfielders - come on, you're supposed to be the resident hipster. Assuming these guys are ~16 years old, they'll be a part of the next wave of OF. Santana will be 24 next season, Brinson will be 23, Ray will be 22, Clark will be 20 (and with a lot to prove), long shot that Harrison makes it at all, so even if these two guys make it guys like Santana/Brinson and maybe even Ray will be approaching free agency by the time they get to the majors and ready to be dealt if they haven't already. That being said, I'd like the Brewers to be linked to some of the catchers, pitchers, and shortstops.
  9. LouisEly
    No kidding. Through age 36 Cameron was a 46.5 career bWAR player. I'll take that from Brinson any day, much less Broxton.
  10. LouisEly
    There is a difference between "no one wanted" and "agent asking for more than he is worth". I haven't read every post or clicked on every link or listened to the audio clip, but do you know what Boras was asking for? We are talking about Scott Boras here - he has a tendency to ask for (read: try to trick teams into paying) the moon. Wieters signed for 2/$21M. That's hardly "no one wanted". If he had signed for 1/$5M then I would say that "no one wanted" him, but for all we know Boras could have been asking for 4/$60M up until a couple of weeks ago.
  11. LouisEly
    They have Miles Turner and Al Jefferson at C, but they do need more of a PF with Young injured. Teletovic might be a more attractive target for them (and he hung 19 on them the other day), maybe Henson.
  12. LouisEly
    I'd call it four seniors who have been to two Final Fours, plus a Sweet 16 in a "down" year. They're not the most talented players in college basketball, but they don't panic and they don't beat themselves.
  13. LouisEly
    Shields started as a WR at Miami, Herb Waters was a WR at Miami but they are trying to convert him to CB. There are a lot of 5'11"-6'1" WRs out there, especially with so many teams running some version of the spread/read-option offense, might as well sign a couple of them as UDFAs and try to convert them to CB. In the last three years the Packers have lost Tramon Williams, Sam Shields, Casey Hayward, and Davon House. Find a team with four CBs who are that good.
  14. LouisEly
    Homer Bailey had surgery to remove bone spurs in his elbow, will be shut down from throwing for 4-6 weeks, and will likely start the season on the DL. Over the last two seasons he's pitched 34.1 innings... and been paid $28M. Since he pitched both seasons I don't know if the Reds can collect insurance. This year he's due $19M. At least Garza, according to Fangraphs, put up a combined 2.0 WAR over the last two seasons (I had to triple-check, but it's true). I know Bailey has been more productive than Mark Rogers, but I would not want to be saddled with his contract and health right now. He's guaranteed another $68M. Maybe the Brewers dodged a bullet, and won by losing.
  15. LouisEly
    Yes - 5 slots for 1st round picks, 10 slots for 2nd round or later. I don't want to get into a game of "Player X was 21 picks later/3 rounds later/etc." because I want to stick to guys who realistically could have been in the conversation for that pick. If a guy went 15 picks or whatever later, then he likely wasn't in the conversation otherwise 14 other teams wouldn't have passed on him as well. Speaking of Arnett, another reason for doing this exercise is what you see after the Arnett pick. Of the 23 picks after Arnett in the 1st round, only two have a career bWAR >3 - Garrett Richards and Rex Brothers (Paxton doesn't count because he didn't sign that year.) Chris Owings and Brad Boxberger are the only two who have >2 career bWAR. 12 of the 23 picks have a career bWAR of 0.2 or less. We like to say how much of a wasted pick that was, how much Seid screwed up, etc., but the reality is that most teams did just as poorly with their pick as the Brewers did. Just as bad are the 19 picks after the Brewers slot in 2010, excluding Yelich. Heck, of the 36 picks after Covey only four have a career bWAR >1 - they are a big four (Yelich, Syndergaard, Aaron Sanchez, Taijuan Walker), but that means that 32 other picks were botched as well. Anthony Rizzo didn't look so hot his first 150 PAs either...
  16. LouisEly
    And this is why Aaron Rodgers is the MVP, not Matt Ryan, because the only time you would ever see Rodgers snap the ball with that much time left is if he was trying to catch the defense with 12 men on the field. Rodgers is a master of letting the clock run down, trying to read the defense and their scheme, and audibling out of a play if he sees something he doesn't like. If Rodgers had Freeman and Coleman instead of a converted WR and a waiver claim he would be setting records.
  17. LouisEly
    I think the first is karma for the 2nd. Or James White got his own retribution.
  18. LouisEly
    You're half right. They can't stop penetration, but Fischer and his seven blocks this weekend disagree with the other half. The problem is when you can't stop penetration, a good team will put the interior defender in a position where he has to make a choice between stopping the penetration and leaving his guy; that leaves the other team's big open for a dunk or unblocked for an offensive rebound. Unless you have an elite shot blocker, allowing lots of penetration and good interior defense tend to be inversely proportional.
  19. LouisEly
    Look at the Patriot's roster and the number of guys drafted by other teams who they have acquired via FA or trades: Martellus Bennett Alan Branch Chris Long Shea McClellin Eric Rowe Kyle Van Noy The last two acquired in-season. They aren't afraid to go and get the pieces they need.
  20. LouisEly
    Atlanta's coaching staff with a colossal screw up. You are on the other team's 20 yard line and need just a field goal to go up by two scores... and you pass the ball. Sacked, then pass again - holding penalty. RUN THE BALL, USE THE CLOCK, KICK THE FIELD GOAL. I want to see a deflated football on the top of the Lombardi trophy.
  21. LouisEly
    Good call on Paxton, not sure how I missed that one. He's been hurt quite a bit, but coming back from injury at the end of 2014 would he have been able to help reverse the skid that the 2014 season ended on? Maybe, but after Seid passed away I don't think anything was going to bring that team back. I thought about Richards, but am a bit worried about him putting off TJ surgery for stem cell therapy. I was looking at who would have the most value now, and serious injuries certainly decrease a player's value. And Richards going down at the end of the 2014 season might have amplified the agony of the last two months of that year even more.
  22. LouisEly
    Interesting choice. Given that A.J. Reed was the pick after Gatewood, would you rather have Bellinger and Gatewood or Taylor Williams and Reed?
  23. LouisEly
    [sarcasm]He raked in the AFL! He's going to be a star!![/sarcasm]
  24. LouisEly
    His career AAA line is .311/.391/.822 in Fresno/Sacto Rivera's line is: .232/.264/.577 in Colorado Springs Rivera is about as close to him as Travis Shaw is to Kris Bryant. For a bigger sample, Rivera's minor league OPS is .633 and Adrianza's is .694, but I strongly agree with the larger point. This is why I did not want the Brewers to protect Rivera - there will be other guys as good or better who will be available via the waiver wire for free. Would rather have Diaz than Rivera.
  25. LouisEly
    Interesting idea, but very risky taking a HS player with an unprotected pick (comp picks for unsigned players are not protected). The Dodgers had to go $400K over slot to sign Seager and that was with a protected pick; any halfway decent agent is going to leverage that unprotected pick and hold the team hostage. If Seager walks away from the table, the Brewers get nothing from either pick. Unlikely but very possible. Not sure that Glasnow would be eligible because he was a significant oversign - he signed for almost 4x the slot value.
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