LouisEly

Is that good or bad? IIRC, Kieschnick was a reliever who occasionally PH. I think it would be easier to hurt your arm if you were a position player who occasionally pitched in a blowout than a reliever who routinely pitches and occasionally pinch-hits. That being said, you don't want to spend a top-10 pick on a player who profiles as a reliever. But at that point (or further in the draft) there can't be that much difference between the potential of the top 2-3 pitchers on your board, so why not go with the better hitter if you are a NL team? Maybe the question is, what is the added value of his bat every five days (and occasionally as a PH) compared to the other pitchers on the board? If he profiles as a #3, and another guy profiles as a #2 but hits like Ben Sheets, which one do you go with?

Some really good detail, particularly regarding Corey Ray and providing some color to the concerns that a few people have about his hit tool. He says he gets his scouting reports from "industry sources that include team executives, team officials, scouts and other industry observers, as well as my own evaluations." Some reports though, in particular Brandon Woodruff, aren't accurate as he says Woodruff "throws a low-90s fastball... lack of a standout tool...". There were several reports last year of Woodruff hitting 98 late in games, and you don't lead all of the minor leagues in strikeouts without at least one standout tool.

Download the Best Parking app and see what options are in that area and what prices. You can also make reservations with the app if the facility accepts them. Prices are usually a little cheaper on the app when making reservations than when showing up. Some businesses that don't have tenants on weekends sometimes rent spaces out on the weekend through the app.

Lots of colds going around lately. I just came down with something today. I hate winter. I highly recommend taking a vitamin D3 supplement during the winter. Vitamin D3 is the specific vitamin that is produced by your body from exposure to sunlight, and facilitates normal immune system function. During the winter when you are inside all the time, your vitamin D3 levels drop which can compromise your immune system function. Think about it - why do people usually get sick in the winter and rarely in the summer? Vitamin D3 levels likely play a role. I started taking a D3 supplement about 10 years ago (along with a powdered green food supplement), and I have been sick exactly once in the last 10 years. And over half of that time I have either been in and out of medical clinics/doctors offices all day long (job) or in school full-time (MBA), so I've been exposed to plenty of viruses.

[sarcasm]McKay had a higher BA and OBP than Corey Ray.[/sarcasm] Actually, I'm half sarcastic there. McKay did lead the team in 2B and was .006 short of Ray in the OPS department, and his pitching line was pretty good (109.2 IP, 89 H, 128 K, but 42 BB and 8 gopher balls were a bit on the high side). This begs the question... is it plausible for McKay to both pitch and play 1B in the pros? I don't know if he could play the day after pitching, but would it be feasible to pitch, rest the next day, then play three games at 1B? Would it even be wise to pursue that - would it take too much time trying to learn pitching and hitting (much less fielding two positions) and not allow enough focus on one aspect of the game? Assuming he makes the majors, would it be worth the roster spot you could save if it compromised his development at both positions? McKay's SLG was exactly the same last year as Pavin Smith's, and his OBP was .004 higher; if McKay and Smith are both on the board, I think you'd have to go with McKay (I realize that wasn't the case with the mock as McKay had already been picked). But I'm curious what the threshold is where you go McKay at #9 compared to who else is on the board.

True, but right now I have time to mess around with the electrical and come spring I'd want to find a solution anyway. I'd rather do it now than later.

Mass, thanks for the link but I don't think it is the right one - it goes to Twitter. I think this is the right one: http://www.brewcrewball.com/2016/12/23/14071754/bcb-mailbag-8-baby-names-and-the-2017-brewers

Getting from the garage to the house isn't an issue because the motion lights are also on the back of the garage and are installed correctly on the first floor unit (their patio light isn't on but the motion lights are), so those go on when I come back in. The issue with keeping the patio light on is that the patio is off of the master bedroom, which fills the master bedroom with more light overnight when I want it dark. The owner of my unit isn't going to know squat. Hate to be stereotypical, but she is the stereotypical high-maintenance but know nothing about home maintenance Yuppie renting out a home for the first time. She isn't exactly responsive when I have minor issues/questions.

Attention electricians. The owners of my building recently installed really nice motion-sensored LED flood lights on the back stairs. Since I often leave before dawn, this really helps getting down the back stairs to the garage when it's dark out. However, the lights are attached to the same two switches inside my unit as the back patio light. In order for the new lights to be on, the patio light has to be on as well. Since I pay for electric (and replacement bulbs), I don't want that to be on all the time. Is it just as simple as disconnecting something going to one of the switches, or is it more complicated than that? I've done minor electrical work before (installed several dimmer switches and ceiling fans), but since I'm renting I don't want to try any major electrical work on my own. Thanks!

Interesting. The X-factor here in comparison to any Braun deal is whether/not Minnesota is willing to take back any salary in the form of McCarthy/etc.. If Minnesota doesn't take any salary back, then the actual cost of adding Dozier is ~$22.5M/2 (50% luxury tax). If the Brewers were willing to take McCarthy/Puig, then the net addition to the Dodgers would have been just Braun's salary with no additional luxury tax penalty. While the risk is lower with Dozier's contract, so is the reward - he could be gone after two years, in which case they gave up top prospects for only two years of his services (versus four years for Braun). If they want to keep him they will likely have to offer a salary that is more than what Braun is being paid for much longer than Braun is under contract. Assuming that a qualifying offer is at least $18M, keeping him for more than two years might mean a 5/$100M deal or more, in which case Braun may be the lower risk and better value long-term.

The previous 24 teams didn't pick Trout primarily because he was from the northeast (not many great baseball players from northern states, shorter seasons to evaluate players, questions about competition vs. kids who play in CA/FL/the southern part of the country) and because he had committed to play at Eastern Carolina. Even after his first season of pro ball he wasn't a top prospect (#83 by BA, #53 by BP, not ranked by MLB.com but I don't know if they did rankings then) so it's not like scouts thought that highly of him. Melvin and Co. did think that players from colder climates were underrated, and that was brought up when they drafted Mark Rogers over Homer Bailey and Wade Townsend in 2004. I'd imagine that the list of Hall of Fame sleeper picks is a pretty short list, but Brett Lawrie has the 2nd highest bWAR of any player picked in the first round in 2008 (Odorizzi is #9 of 46 1st rounders), of the 28 players drafted in the first round after Jeffress in 2006 only three have >1 bWAR more than Jeffress (Ottavino - 5.8 bWAR, Chamberlain - 8.0, and Ian Kennedy - 14.5, the latter two both big oversigns by the Yankees who would have gone much higher if the draft rules of today had been in place), LaPorta was a Top 30 prospect when he was traded, and Ryan Braun has the highest bWAR of any player picked in the loaded 2005 draft. They were pretty good at identifying bats; the problem was the pitching got hurt (Jones, Rogers) or didn't pan out, but overall they did a pretty good job of identifying talent in the first round. To go from where they were in 2002 to where they were in 2009, they did a lot of things right in the draft.

The key is what I have highlighted in bold. It is popular around these parts to use the Fangraphs model that assumes a decline of 0.5 fWAR/year. However, if what is in bold is true, it sounds like that is mostly not the case; they either mostly sustain their WAR, or they drop off a cliff. If that is the case, then using that model will mostly yield incorrect results. We don't need to look further than last season to see why that model can be very wrong; over his age 36-40 seasons David Ortiz put up almost 19 bWAR. Yes, he was a DH, and Braun can't take advantage of that (yet), but Braun has kept himself in excellent shape and by all accounts has been extremely dedicated to his rehab. It is very possible that Braun does not follow that model and can sustain his WAR. David Ortiz also, like Braun, once tested positive for PEDs (allegedly).

Can't remember which announcer said this, but to the Bears and Lions Aaron Rodgers is The Boogeyman.

brewcrewball.com Typical comments honestly Sounds like a long-winded way of saying, "I'm not motivated to trade (Lyle Overbay, etc.)"

I think that will always be Southern California, especially if the Dodgers or Angels are contending. His 10/5 rights will enforce next season, but I think the door to the Dodgers will always be open. Wide open.

I do not ever want to see Sogard or his awful hipster glasses on the Brewers.

1) Games missed are obviously factored into WAR, that's kind of redundant B) WAR is pretty subjective, especially for defensive metrics. OPS more directly translates into runs scored, and runs scored more directly translates into wins. 3) Was last season an outlier for Dozier? Jumping from .762 to .889? Which leads to... 4) With Braun you are paying for consistency. Which Dozier will you get, 2015 or 2016? Those seasons are pretty different. And you get Braun for four years; Dozier might leave after two as a FA. You'll have to pony up a salary higher than Braun's just to make a QO to keep Dozier longer than two years, much less a long term deal. What will that cost in two years? Just my rebuttal though.

It's called reading quickly when you are busy. I went to the Twins page on BR, not realizing the ages of the payroll page that came up first were ages next season. Then I typed in Braun in the search bar and looked at the last line. Don't ever accuse me of that.

The one thing that hasn't been addressed here is, do the Brewers have the right coaches in the right places/levels in the organization? Star players are rarely stars when drafted; they are usually developed. Arrieta, Hendricks, Rizzo... none of those guys were drafted before the 5th round. And none of those guys were drafted by the Cubs; they traded for each one. Strasburg was the #1 overall pick, but he went undrafted out of HS. Josh Hader was a 19th round pick. You can get value out of college players too; Jose De Leon was a 24th round pick, Brandon Woodruff an 11th round pick. Tanner Roark was a 25th round pick, and two of his three seasons have been excellent. Those guys were all developed though, not drafted - every team had multiple chances at all of those guys. Within the organization, look at what has happened with some players when they made small adjustments at the major league level. Corey Hart drops his hands a little, goes from .750 OPS two years in a row to three years in a row of .850 OPS. Keon Broxton drops his hands a little, puts up a .937 OPS in the 2nd half. They stop trying to make Carlos Gomez into something he isn't, and he puts up 13+ bWAR over two seasons and even though he cools off is on pace for a >3 WAR season when he was traded. Those things are the result of coaching. The results of the Brewers drafts under Seid - and the pitching drafted under Jack Z - were disappointing. I have a hard time believing though that they missed on that much, and that good coaching - or a lack thereof - wasn't a big reason for it. I side with the "they likely have the players in the organization", particularly when it comes to pitching, it's a matter of if they have the right coaches to develop it.

I believe property taxes are significantly lower in Greenville than in Appleton, but I could be wrong.

Dozier is 30 and has a career OPS of .762. He had a career year last year (.886 OPS), but that was the only time in his career that his OPS has been over .762. Highly likely that last year was an outlier. Braun is 32 and has a career OPS of .910, and .903 last year. Last year was an average year for Braun, and his worst season was better than all but one of Dozier's seasons (last year). Yes, Dozier is making far less money, but he is not in the class of hitter that Braun is. I doubt that being unwilling to give up De Leon for Dozier means anything about whether or not they would give him up for Braun.

I don't know how they come up with some of their numbers. Freddie Peralta has FB:60/SL:50/CU:50/Control:50, but an overall of 45. How do you have an overall of 45 with all grades being 50 or more? Same with Woodruff: FB:60/SL:50/CU:50/Control:45, overall 45. How they give a guy who walked 40 in 158 innings last year (and 33 in 108 innings the year before) a Control rating of 45 is beyond me. That's the same control rating for Cubs prospect Duane Underwood (#6 in the Cubs system) who had a walk rate of 4.3/9 (35 in 73 IP) last year. This is why I don't take these prospect ratings as gospel.

Was looking at the Cubs MLB Pipeline Top 30 the other day and #13 on their list is their 3rd round pick from 2016, a college pitcher who has not pitched professionally yet. The Brewers 3rd round pick, a college pitcher who has not pitched professionally yet, isn't in the Brewers top 30. That makes me feel good. The Cubs have a lot of young talented position players on the MLB team, but their lack of pitching prospects and the Brewers minor league depth makes me feel that the Cubs dominance in this division may not be that long.

When did the Brewers sign Mallen and Segovia? If they signed in 2014 they will not be eligible until the 2018 Rule 5 draft.

This. Only one of their SPs was under the age of 30, one is a FA now and two are FAs after 2017 with nothing above A-ball for starting pitching prospects. They will have money to spend, but so will the Yankees, Dodgers, Angels, Red Sox, Braves, etc., so there is no guarantee they will get one good SP in FA much less three. It's also unlikely that the Cubs will have five starters make at least 29 starts in a season - they were very lucky from a health standpoint, and if anyone goes down they have no depth to call up.