LouisEly

annnnnnnnnnnd you lost me. 3.8 x $8M = $30.4M Cespedes put up 2.9 and 2.3 bWAR the last two seasons and he got $29M/year.

It is a fun exercise. I'm going to put a twist on it. Braun has a set salary in place. It is debated - but generally regarded - that it is a bargain. The comparison of expected WAR, and using $8M as a proxy for 1 WAR, has its merits. But what if you compared Braun's contract to what he or a similar player would get in the open market as a free agent? Assuming Braun is a 3.8 WAR player, his salary at $8M/WAR as a free agent would start around $30M/year. His WAR/year is likely to decline, but few contracts decline in salary in the latter years (I believe Braun's does because of the deferred $). The labor agreement also caps how much a contract can decline from year to year, which I believe is 20% per year. So let's say Braun gets $30M/year in the open market (fair value at 3.8 WAR) and two scenarios, one where it declines by 20% per year (max allowed by labor agreement) and one where it is flat for four seasons. I'd argue that you would not get Braun for only four seasons, but we'll say four to compare apples to apples. Scenario 1 his salaries are $30M, $24M, $19.2M, and $19.4M, or $89M. Close to the original estimate. Scenario 2 - more likely - the total salary in the open market would be $120M, making his excess value $44M, in which case it would take more than two Top 100 prospects to get him. Now add in the option year - because he will likely still be in the game and would likely get a 5th year in free agency - and the excess value could be >$50M. Now add in the Brewers taking back salary in McCarthy ($22M)... and you see why some people think the Brewers could get both De Leon and Bellinger from the Dodgers. The excess value of the rumored trade to the Dodgers - as opposed to acquiring a similar free agent - could be in upwards of $70M.

Totally agree with point #2. As for point #1, it can be a short trip from AA to the majors, but how many of those players - or any player who makes the majors - end up playing well enough that they stay there and don't get sent down? I don't know, but I'd guess it is the minority, except for likely the elite players of the game. For most it is an adjustment and they don't fare well the first time, needing to get sent back down for a while to work on adjustments. The point is that if he isn't good enough to stick the first time around he can't be sent down without being exposed to waivers if he's out of options. I'm not sure how old he was when he was signed, but I don't think it does these international kids any favors to let them sign when they are 16. I personally think, given the adjustments of coming to America and learning the language/culture here, they should get an exemption for one season in the DOSL to start that clock a little later. You get situations like this - and if you look at the top players available in Rule 5 many of them were international signees - where teams have to protect them before they are ready.

1) When he did post BABIPs in the .320-.340 range, his wRC+ was around 114-115, not the 151 you quoted in your post. You made no mention in your post that it could be an outlier and made no mention of his prior wRC+, you only quoted his AA numbers which were a fairly small sample. His AA numbers were also inflated by six triples in 62 games. B) BABIP is much more relevant for pitchers than hitters, except for extreme cases. For a really extreme case, see Lewis Brinson. 3) BABIPs of .325 and .332 are much more normal for good hitters (for example, Tony Gwynn's ML career BABIP was around .340; Braun's ML career BABIP is .334) and, based on their power, I do think they are more indicative of their true talent.

Dubon's .374 BABIP didn't artificially inflate his AA numbers at all?

The risk is that the Brewers could get better prospects for Thornburg next July if Thornburg repeats his 2016.

Some random thoughts: 1) Surprised it took until the 9th page to mention a comp to the Will Smith trade. That is what I thought of immediately. Not entirely apples-to-apples - WS is LH, but never was a closer. How does what the Brewers got compare to Susac/Bickford? Sounds like Pennington would have been a high draft pick if he weren't injured in HS, so maybe it's comparable. I think I like Susac/Bickford a little better. B) I don't think Isan Diaz is that much of an apples-to-apples to Dubon, as Diaz is much more of a power hitter (20 HR vs 6 for Dubon) and a higher walk rate. Dubon's OPS comes from a high batting average helped by a spike with 9 triples last year. Not sure Dubon can sustain what he did in AA. That being said, Dubon is a SS whereas Diaz is a 2B. C) Thornburg gave up runs in each of his last four appearances, blowing three saves. Maybe he was tired, maybe it was a due regress, maybe the past elbow issues were flaring up. If it was the last one, then this is a very good trade, but Boston might file a grievance. D) Overall, I'm kind of meh. If Thornburg continues what he did last year then I think there is a good chance the Brewers don't win this one. If the elbow issues come back, then they did win it.

The committee got it right. Team A: one loss on the road by three points to a top-5 team, beat three other top-10 teams including one on the road by 21 Team B: two losses, one on the road by one to a top-25 team, another on the road by 39 to a top-6 team, beat top 10 team in conference championship by 7 Team C: two losses, one on the road by one to a top-25 team, another on the road in OT to a top-5 team, beat top-5 team by 39 at home Team D: one loss at home to a top-10 team, beat top-10 team in conference championship by 31 If I'm ranking these teams, I have A and D followed by C then B. It's really, really close, but it's right.

It's about context, specifically the current market. Rich Hill, who had a great year last year but is 37, has 9.8 career bWAR, and only twice in his career has ever started 20 games in a season, just set the bar at 3/$48M. Garza, who just turned 33, has a career 14.1 bWAR, and has started 20 games in a season seven times, is due $12.5M this year and likely $5M next year, for a total of $17.5M for two years. Average starting pitching, and risky above average starting pitching, is expensive.

Instead of giving a spot to one of their two top pitching prospects, both of whom pitched in the majors last year, they sign Hill. Kershaw, Maeda, Kazmir, Ryu, Hill. Wonder if that means that one of Urias or De Leon is going to be traded. (Ducks and runs for cover.)

If true it shoots my luxury tax theory down, but it could also support the theory that they plan on trading some of their other starting pitching. They are already committed to Kershaw/Kazmir/Ryu/Maeda; assuming those four are healthy, adding Hill means no room for Urias or De Leon, much less McCarthy, Wood, or Stripling.

Actually, I really doubt this because that would defeat the purpose of sending McCarthy to the Brewers in the deal. My theory all along was that the Dodgers were including McCarthy (I hypothesized McCarthy being involved in a deal well before it was reported) not to offset 2016 salary but to reduce their 2017 salary obligations to try to get under the luxury tax threshold for 2017. This theory is supported by the trade of Howie Kendrick to the Phillies for spare parts. Adding Garza would be basically adding McCarthy's 2017 salary back to their payroll. Right now the Dodgers are sitting at ~$174M; by subtracting McCarthy and Puig they could add Braun and still have a decent chance at getting under the $189M luxury tax limit. Right now their estimated payroll with arby raises is around $192M, so getting under $189M is very possible. They wouldn't have a chance if they had taken on Garza. DeLeon would obviously be league minimum for 2017, but the Dodgers already have plenty of starting depth (Kershaw, Kazmir, Ryu, Maeda, Urias, Wood, Stripling, Stewart) so they wouldn't need De Leon unless they got hit hard with the injury bug again.

Considering that the Dodgers right now are committed to only $51M in payroll for 2019, I find it hard to believe that they are concerned about the back end of Braun's contract. They have at least $30M coming off the books after 2017 (Crawford, Guerrero, possible Ethier buyout takes it up to $45M), then at least another $55M coming off after 2018 (Gonzalez, Kazmir, McCarthy, Arrubarrena; Ryu and Puig take it up to $70M+). They have at least $100M coming off the books over the next two years. I can see the Dodgers being hesitant about giving up Bellinger because Gonzalez only has two seasons left on his deal. Stick Bellinger in the OF for a year or two, then take over for Gonzo. I still think that, given the number of Dodgers pitchers who were hurt at the end of August when the waiver claim of Puig was made, the sticking point was that the Brewers wanted De Leon but the Dodgers balked because they needed him to cover for injuries.

Didn't notice that Jaime Garcia, occasional Brewers-killer, was traded to the Braves yesterday. Interesting who they got back. One was Luke Dykstra, he of the Lenny and Cutter family, who has one of the more interesting stat lines I've ever seen: in 2015 in 241 PAs he walked 8 times (3.3% BB rate) and struck out 16 times (6.6% K rate). I don't think I've ever seen both numbers so low. The two pitchers they got back are decent too; Chris Ellis, who was a part of the Andrelton Simmons/Sean Newcomb deal, was considered the Angels #2 prospect at the time and a mid-rotation ceiling. He was moving through the minors quickly. John Gant put up good numbers as a 21/22 year old in 2014 and 2015 before missing time last year with an injury (assume, since he only pitched 109 innings and appears to have had a rehab outing in low-A) before being given a trial (perhaps too soon) in the majors. Not a bad return for a guy with only one year and $12M left on his deal who arguably put up similar numbers as Garza last year.

I think people have been overlooking/not considering outcome B here. LH power bats are always in demand at the trade deadline, and can bring back a nice prospect (39-year-old Carlos Beltran and his $15M pro-rated salary was able to fetch Dillon Tate, 34-year-old Ben Zobrist was able to net Sean Manaea; not perfect comps, but in the ballpark). Really like the move - relatively low-risk, with good upside. $5M/year, for this team at this time, is nothing. Anyone who is unlikely to "piss away" $15M on will likely command much more than $15M. Sounds like he has a strong work ethic and is a good clubhouse guy. Plenty of examples of guys who didn't figure it out until late 20's (Nelson Cruz immediately comes to mind, David Ortiz made a big jump at 27). No one thinks he will do what he did in Korea, but Kang and Hyun Soo Kim have shown that Korean stars can put up good numbers here. Carter had a nice year last year, but it was a career year (of his four full seasons). Considering that Villar (.369 OBP), Braun (.365 OBP), and Lucroy (.359 OBP) were usually batting ahead of him, he should have had more than 94 RBI for 41 HRs. Carter is what he is; there is a decent chance that Thames can give them as much for half the salary, possibly more.

Wren was young for his leagues too: -1.4 at AAA in 2016, -2.8 in AAA in 2015, -1.5 in AA in 2014. But I don't think this is a good gauge to look at because league averages will vary depending on how many older roster filler players are in each league each year (especially at AAA), and each league (there is no one AA/AAA) will be different. These guys are less than 1.5 years apart in age; I don't think that is a significant difference. If we were talking 3+ years then I would agree. This is where we differ, because I think that is a very big "if" and the chances of it coming to fruition, IMO, are very small. The evidence is his K rate: 2013 - 20.8% 2014 - 28.1% 2015 - 34.8% 2016 - 37.6% This is why I don't think he can sustain that production; the higher he's gone the worse he gets. If he's striking out that much on minor league pitching, major league pitchers will abuse him. All of those singles and walks that raise the BA and OBP have value and generate runs (not to mention sac flies), and you simply cannot sustain performance based on hitting a higher than average number of home runs and striking out 40% of the time or more. There's a lot more to the game than home runs. I think he'll be lucky to slash .210/.270/.430, and a .700 OPS with below average defense at 1B is a negative WAR player. Guys like Zimmerman are in the league because 1) they are hoping he regains his pre-2014 form and b) they are stuck with his contract. Matt Adams had a .315/.362/.559 minor league slash line; Walker is not comparable to that at all. They'll give Adams plenty of chances based on his minor league numbers, and he has been hurt the last two years as well. I was speaking in generalities as to why talented players don't make it, not specifically referring to those players. I don't know them personally, but I do personally know people who have played minor league baseball, and those are reasons why very talented baseball players don't make it. It takes a lot more than talent to make it, and I will stand by that. We'll have to agree to disagree here.

There is also talent level. He has no power to speak of... On the scouting scale, his ceiling is a 45, but I would call him a 40 overall Pretty much the same thing would have been said about Brian Dozier pre-2012. (His 2011 would have been called an outlier too, right?) NOT saying that will happen to Wren, but sometimes players make adjustments and get better. Dozier didn't become what he is until his 5th pro season. I never said it wasn't. I never said you did. I was referring to other people's comments. 1) So you're saying the Brewers spent two top picks on players who have no talent? You made my point - Gatewood and Taylor have talent, but they haven't made the adjustments needed to succeed and get to the next level. Baseball is about making adjustments - hitters and pitchers will figure you out if you don't. B) Some players listen to coaching more than others. Some players get complacent once they get a big payday. Some players think they can succeed by doing things "my way". Some players mentally can't handle failure. Some players can't block out off-the-field distractions. Takes a lot more than talent to succeed in baseball. You may want to look at the minor league slash lines for those guys before making that statement. Particularly Adams. While Zimmerman has fallen off recently, you should look at his 2006-2013 major league numbers. I'm pretty confident that Walker will never touch those.

[sarcasm]The Brewers could have had a top 20 prospect!![/sarcasm]

Well, there's the Goforth DFA. Not exactly who most would like to see fill Goforth's spot. Looks like Parker was out with an injury for most of 2015. In 2013 he put up good numbers across the board, in 2014 put up good numbers in the minors (13.1 K/9, 4.00 K/BB, 7.1 H/9) as well as 2016 (12.7 K/9, 5.09 K/BB, 5.4 H/9). Maybe there's something, but I'm kind of with jericoholicninja here - the analytics might be getting a little ahead of themselves.

Wren was also in AA in his first full professional season, and in AAA in his second full professional season. We have already established that college players don't get as much coaching and experience as people think they do, certainly less than players who choose full-time pro baseball over college baseball. I would expect anyone who is in AA in his first full professional season to struggle. He then made adjustments and had a better walk rate at AA in 2015 before struggling after being promoted to AAA; he then made adjustments and had a great walk rate in 2016. He has done exactly what you hope a player does - get better every year. That is the issue with making judgments based on retrospective analysis - it doesn't take into account trends. Analysis is based on three components - what is the past, what is the present, what is the trend. There is the possibility that 2016 is an outlier, but the trend does not support it.

Walker has a career minor league OBP of .310 and K rate of 30% on top of below-average defense. Yes, he has higher upside, but he will likely have to move to 1B where his bat projects to be well below average. Neither is great, but IMO Wren projects to be more successful in the majors (as a 4th OF) than Walker (as a 1B). As for a Walker-Kh. Davis-C. Carter comparison, they aren't comparable. Looking at their minor league numbers: Walker: .251/.310/.486, 30% K rate, 7.7% BB rate, 5% HR rate Kh. Davis: .285/.389/.501, 20% K rate, 12.7% BB rate, 4% HR rate C. Carter: .283/.378/.535, 23.5% K rate, 12.1% BB rate, 5% HR rate Carter was also drafted out of HS, whereas Walker and Davis were drafted out of college. The odds of Walker developing into Khris Davis or Chris Carter are pretty slim.

Delmonico wouldn't be a bad pick at all. Backup LHH corner IF. Sounds like he has matured a bit since then, and the Brewers basically have a new regime in place in Montgomery (hired Nov 2014) and Stearns (Sept 2015). I don't think that anyone is looking at Wren as a starter, but he gets on base, has some speed, and can play all three OF positions, ideal for a 4th OF. His arm is a little light for CF, but adequate for a backup.

Nieuwenhuis, Reed, Perez - they have plenty of 4th OF candidates, and they'll have Brinson, Phillips, and Cordell (plus hopefully Wren) to call up if someone gets hurt. Nieuwenhuis and Reed are redundant, one of them did not need to be protected.

If Progressive and AAA came back around $1300-1500 then I'd say it was legal. But for Progressive to come back at $1000 and AAA to come back at $840 says that $1887 is either criminal or somebody made a big mistake in changing their algorithm.

Yes and no. If you have guys on the 40 man now who project to or could start the season on the 60-day DL (T. Williams as an example) that will clear roster spots in the spring to add NRIs to fill the holes in the major league roster. The bigger picture is that now they have nine OFs on the 40-man. Nine. That to me is just as bad as not having major league caliber players to fill out a 25-man roster. Maybe Walker can move to 1B, but other than that the other eight OFs aren't going to fill holes in the infield, pitcher, or catcher any more than young pitching that isn't ready yet. I can understand Scahill, and I've speculated that he could have value in a trade with the Dodgers to help fill out the Dodgers bullpen with cheap quality arms to try to get under the luxury tax threshold. I don't understand Rivera (Perez is your super-sub, Rivera will never have a major-league bat, and there will be a dozen guys as good as Rivera they can grab off the waiver wire), Goforth (hasn't shown anything and he's 28), or Nieuwenhuis (they have at least seven other OFs). Two of those three should have been left off and Wang and Diaz added.