LouisEly

I see your point about Rogers and how many innings each can go at a time right now; the counter to that is their BB:K:IP ratios, where Braddock in 34 IP on the year has 7 BB and 53 K, whereas Rogers in 50 IP has 26 BB and 52K. It may take longer to get Braddock stretched out, and it's possible he may never be able to get to a place where he can start, but the production seems to favor Braddock. While Rogers can go more innings per start/outing now, it is unlikely that he will be able to go more than 100 innings next year because of the theory/practice of limited incremental innings increases from one year to the next, putting him in roughly the same boat as Braddock. Since Rogers hasn't pitched since 2006, they may shut him down for the year any day now depending on what target/limit of IP they have set for him. The interesting thing about Rogers is whether he can be in the rotation in 2011 or at least spend the entire year in the rotation. If he can go 100 innings next year, the target for 2011 might be around 120-130, in which case he might start the year as the #5 to allow him to skip starts but would have to move to the pen by late July. If my calculations are correct, 2011 is his last option year so he can still be in the minors that year and might have to be to safely build up how many innings he can go as a starter, and then target 150-160 innings in 2012. Either way I just hope that both are beyond any more serious injuries.

The only way I would accept Kendall back would be solely to tutor Salome with Salome as the starter, Kendall only coming in as a late-inning defensive replacement, and McGehee back with good knees so he can actually serve as an emergency catcher should something happen to Kendall as a late-inning replacement. Or find a modern-day Charlie Moore - a 5th OF who can also catch, but they traded the only one I can think of off the top of my head (Rottino). Then again, they could probably find a veteran catcher as good defensively as Kendall who could tutor Salome but for a couple million less in salary.

I think an amendment should be made to the rules that anyone under the age of 25 in the minors not on a rehab assignment should be eligible. My guess is that Rivas is the biggest mover with competition from Axford... Walla drops the most. Wouldn't be surprised to see Mike Jones sneak back in at #49 or #50 - who would have ever thought they would see him on that list again? wibadgers23 is right on with 1-6; then I have Green at #7. It will be interesting to see how 8-16 shake out as you have Gindl, Cain, Schafer, Arnett, Peralta, Rivas, Scarpetta, Anundsen, and Rogers all neck and neck. Of particular interest is how the panel ranks Gindl, Cain, and Schafer; Gindl has the best offensive numbers but plays RF where the others play CF; Schafer is putting up identical numbers as Cain did last year in Brevard at roughly the same age and hasn't made an error all year (Gindl has six), and Cain is struggling a bit coming off of injury. Not sure why Corporan has dropped off the list. Tough to get PT when you have Salome and Lucroy at AAA and AA. He's still on the 40-man, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him up in September so they can PH for Kendall late in games. If Henry Blanco can stay in the majors this long, Corporan has a chance to make it as a backup/defensive catcher.

Surprised no one said good to see Periard back, as it was his first outing since mid-July. Just when I was getting excited about Axford, he gets bit by the BB bug...

Road trip to Latrobe and see the Rolling Rock brewery. Actually, the one cool thing about western PA is that they have drive-through beer distributorships. Seriously, just drive in and load up your vehicle with cases. Rolling Rock 7oz shorties are my favorite. The bad thing - in western PA they consider Old Milwaukee to be a premium beer. They had 16oz. can cases of Old Mud, Old Mud Light, Old Mud Red, and Old Mud Dark. No joke. On a more serious note, just outside of Somerset (about an hour, hour and a half drive from Pittsburgh) is where the fourth airliner went down on 9/11. If I ever get back there (spent half a summer there in 1995) I will definitely go there.

The argument of Cameron versus FA pitcher isn't a difficult one. Cameron will again be worth over 4 WAR this year. Will the $10 million Cameron would cost buy us a 4 WAR pitcher? Thats highly unlikely. Pitchers that project to 4 WAR get huge long term deals, the kind that shouldn't be given out. Then how exactly should they get better-than-replacement pitching? Looper cost ~$5M this offseason for two years, the second year being a team option, and he seems to be roughly replacement level. So for double that they should be able to get a two year deal with a starter who is better than Looper. A Jason Marquis or Joel Piniero find in the offseason could be had for that $$. The other half of that equation is whether or not Cameron can sustain his production. While Cameron is having a good year overall, I have to wonder how much of the increase in OBP over last year is due to hitting 6th and being pitched around because of Hardy, Kendall, and the pitcher hitting after him; I wonder if anyone hitting in the #6 spot would have an increase in OBP because of hitting in front of Hardy/Kendall/pitcher. Cam's SLG is down this year compared to last which is cause for a bit of concern at age 36, and 37 seems to be where guys really start falling off the table. If they could package Hardy and Hart together for a #2 or #3 starter and keep Cameron, moving Weeks to RF, that would seem to be ideal. I'm not entirely sold though that Cam for $10M is better than pitching.

The moment the Suppan contract expires, I hope they pull a fleet of Brinks trucks up to Prince's house and dump off extension money. While I would like $12.5M to be able to get it done, it will probably be more like Suppan plus at least half of Hall's contract. If there are buyouts of the team option of Suppan and Hall, it is probably equal to the total of the contracts of both. That being said, paying Fielder what they pay in total to Suppan and Hall, would be a heckuva bargain.

I forgot about Marseco being hit in the face and needing surgery - my apologies. I only partially retract my statement though because when he was drafted the scouting report said he will never be an offensive threat, and at 5'9" 140lbs at the age of 21 there doesn't seem to be a lot of potential for development. And while he did hit .311, and OBP of .338 isn't very impressive and shows that even in Rookie ball they don't fear him at the plate. "Worst", no. "Bad", yes. Josh Murray has nothing on Brian Opdyke, Dane Artman, or Jon Steitz.

A player could just as easily get hurt in the 1st inning as the 9th. Exactly - it is completely random, so why expose someone to any additional risk if the outcome is not in question?

If the topic is bad Brewers CFs, don't sell a Mouton short.

Tom Haudricourt was on the D-List yesterday and was commenting on how Hardy just looks like he's been defeated and given up on the season at this point. I hope the Brewers only play him sporadically from here on out, unless he gets hot. The lineup is so much better with McGehee and Counsell in it right now. Unfortunately I have to agree. After watching four games in person the last few days, all in field level seats, I could not say with a straight face that Hardy is hitting a "hard" .227, and his misplay of TGJ's grounder cost them dearly. The worst was when the Brewers loaded the bases with nobody out in SD, and Hardy struck out without making contact with two of the pitches in the dirt. You cannot strike out with the bases loaded and nobody out, especially swinging at two pitches in the dirt. Briggs - good call on Yount. No middle infielder is going to step out in CF and instantly be Cameron, but like you said Hall was adequate by the middle of the season and someone athletic enough like Weeks or Hart could do well there eventually if given the chance. Remember, Hart hasn't played his entire career in the OF either. Don't get me wrong, I value Cam's defense out there, but if I have to choose between $10M going to Cameron or to pitching this offseason it would be hard for me to pick Cameron. Why would you go through the trade deadline stating that Alcides Escobar is untouchable and stand pat, essentially giving up hope for a '09 playoff push if Escobar wasn't going to be your SS in '10? I see your point, however Melvin has said that the best return for a position player comes in the offseason not at the deadline, so he may feel he can get more for Hardy at the winter meetings than now.

Surprised that no one mentioned Chad Robinson with his first appearance in over a month. Heck, he's been off the radar so long no one even noticed that he didn't pitch for a month.

The compensation could be staggered though depending on the size of the contract. It could be something like lottery teams can sign any free agent without giving up their pick, non-lottery teams have to give up their first round pick if the contract is greater than $X average per year or $X total contract value, or give up a second round pick if the contract is less than that particular level per year. As long as they protect the lottery picks I think compensation will work out just fine.

Of course the Dodgers have to protect Manny - he might be pregnant, and could lose the baby! Seriously, this from an organization that promotes a player who tested positive for female fertility drugs. 'Nuff said. I am hoping that there is a close play tonight with Fielder rounding third and Russell Martin as the catcher. Please! I have been good all year. Just give me this one thing! Fielder may kill the guy. We were all hoping for that, but perhaps the only thing that could possibly have been more beautiful than that was Fielder stealing off of Martin. I laughed my butt off, and gave Martin the business (from the 3rd row right behind him) for the rest of the inning. "You just let a 280 lb. man steal off of you!!"

That reminds me of one other thing that I noticed... the first time through the order Parra threw only fastballs and curveballs, probably 3:1 fastballs to curves. Second time through the order he added the changeup, and with the fastball working it was really effective - he started the change at the knees or low thighs (exactly where the fastballs were) and would drop to mid-shin high. Then the third time through the order he added the splitter; between the fastball, change, and splitter he had them hitting everything into the ground if the made contact at all. One of the runs they scored on three weak grounders and an error; Ausmus hit a bleeder that just got through the infield, then Parra botched the weak comebacker, and then someone hit a bleeder through 3B and SS that scored the run. Really impressed by that, and it was neat seeing in person how effective that is to add a pitch each time through the order.

Glad to rock the Tropical Tuesday jersey for 'ya. The Reverend texted me and asked me to show the "3TO" sign, but, well, this is LA and they might think it's a gang sign and I'll get tossed three innings into the best seats I've ever had. They kind of yelled at people who waved and stuff where I was sitting. Lucky that the seats in front of me were empty almost the whole game. Thanks for the props dlk9s... but I'm a little worried about a guy who posts 10 pictures of me in a thread, one with a heart-shaped circle around it. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Wish it would have been the one where I was chewing the home plate ump's butt because Counsell was clearly safe. I'll post pics this weekend from "Section Lah Dee Freakin' Dah" in another post. I forgot my real camera and only had my cell camera, but the pics are decent. Saw Mark A. in the tunnel afterwards; I said, "Thank you, Mark!" and he turned around and paused and looked at me with a smile, and I said, "Thank you!" again and he waved at me and walked into the Brewers clubhouse. Oh, and Larry King was sitting 10 seats to my left.

Fielder never should have been in the game in the 9th down 17-4. No need to risk even a stupid accidental sprain of the knee or ankle getting a spike caught or have a Yo Gallardo happen. Just stupid of Macha even having him in the game at that point. I'm really close to hopping on the "Macha must go" bandwagon.

If any extrapolation of UZR doesn't have Manny Ramirez as being the worst outfielder in the game then I think that statistic is flawed.

It was a great game. He was down in the zone almost all of the night except for a bit of high wildness in the 6th. I was going to mention the ground balls. As for the 9th, I had no issue with him coming back out, but the problem was Macha. Didn't understand why they took out Parra with the lefty coming up, and then you have a changeup/offspeed pitcher coming in facing a lefty so I don't know why Hall wasn't moved over closer towards the line - an offspeed righty facing a lefty hitter, the lefty is going to pull the ball. Hall just missed it (from my viewpoint, but maybe it wasn't as close) and it looked like he could have gotten it if he had been better positioned. With a lefty on lefty, Parra may have been able to strike him out, get a pop out/fly out, or induce a ground ball instead of Loney doubling into the corner.

By and large, a majority of players who get to the majors have that special label of "potential". For a majority of those, the question is whether or not they can make the adjustments to the next level. That is why some prospects with a lot of potential fail, and why some seemingly come out of nowhere and make it. While McGehee does not have the sexiness of a minor league career where he dominated, he appears to be the type who is capable of making adjustments. Interesting that he started in A-ball at age 20, and then made slight improvements when he went up a level to A+, then a significant improvement with jump to AA. Then a bit of a dropoff in the move to AAA, but rebounded; to me his track record says that he makes adjustments when he gets to the next level. Will he stay at .900 OPS? Unlikely. But I wouldn't put it past him to stay at .800. This is why I don't like the proverbial "MLE" stat - it doesn't take into account a players ability, and often times just pure willingness, to make adjustments.

Brownstein is better as was Marseco last year. Marseco better be the best defensive shortstop this side of Ozzie Smith, otherwise his .498 OPS in low-A, even for an 11th round pick, makes him one of the worst draft picks in the first 20 rounds in recent history.

Tonight I'll be in Field Dugout section 7, row F.

For the most part I agree, however it depends on the team. For a team like SF who has a ton of pitching and no hitting, a guy like Hardy to replace an aging Renteria ($8M for a .625 OPS this year) and a guy like Hart to replace an aging Winn ($9.6M for .695 OPS), younger cheaper more productive (even in an off-year) guys like Hardy and Hart have a lot more value. McGehee would be an upgrade over Juan Uribe as a super sub, and could be considered an upgrade over Freddy Sanchez who hits .300 but does little else as he rarely walks and doesn't have much power (McGehee has walked 15 times in 182 ABs where Sanchez has walked 20 times in 359 ABs, and obviously McGehee has a lot more power). Hardy and Hart might not get you Cain (it would be closer than people think), but could get one of their higher pitching prospects. I think people would be surprised what Hardy, Hart, and McGehee would get from a team like the Giants.

The whole Weeks to OF thing completely skipped my mind, and it makes a lot of sense. They have depth in the infield, and should they let Cam go (only if they need his $10M to go towards pitching) a move of Weeks to CF, or a trade of Hart for pitching and move Weeks to RF, would be practically ideal. Assuming Hardy is traded that leaves Gamel at 3B, Escobar at SS, McGehee at 2B, with Hall/Iribarren/Heether as your backups. The more I think about it, the more it makes sense.

By doing just that the last few years they acquired a couple of A-ballers named Carlos Villanueva and Josh Butler. I'll take another one of those two for Counsell. (Not to get too technical, but I'd put McGehee and Weeks ahead of Counsell in the production department, and Cameron and Hart at least equal.) As for Suppan... you never know, someone desperate enough for starting pitching might just take him off of our hands. He certainly won't get claimed. Kendall I'm kind of torn on; I don't think he will net comp picks and I think he would net value in a trade, but it would be nice to have him tutor Salome for a year. The question is if Kendall wants to come back, in which case if he doesn't, then it would be best to trade him.