LouisEly

Naming Suppan as opening day starter and bumping the others down to create more favorable pitching matchups for starters 2-5. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

McClung's xFIP is 5.10 and he has walked just about the same amount as Parra on the year. Only difference between the two is in LOB% which is at least partially luck though not fully I'd imagine. Luck, or that McClung can get away with walking guys because his stuff is that good that they just can't hit him hard. His .637 OPS-A and .313 SLG-A this year back that theory up (think about that - his SLG-A is lower than his OBP-A). I doubt that xFIP accounts for how good a guy's stuff is and weights walks and OBP too heavily and SLG-A not heavily enough. From what I've seen, McClung is throwing 95mph fastballs and 75mph curveballs, and that type of speed differential with a consistent delivery is very difficult to hit. Edit - staying on topic, congrats to Smith. Can't be worse than Julio, so let's see if he's DiFelice II.

I give Rome credit - he has come a long way from the immature, unprofessional days of "Chris Everett" and conducts some good interviews. He does "softball" athletes more than I would like, but he has to lube them up a bit so that they come back on his show (he apparently learned from the "Chris Everett" days). Personally as much as I disliked Kornheiser's personality, I loved the fact that he interviewed reporters who were not afraid to give the real story and tell it like it is, and not dance around and kiss behinds like Dan Patrick did. Kornheiser was my least favorite broadcaster, but his show was my favorite show because the media people and reporters he had on were the most interesting interviews.

Deer Valley... love that course. Had both the closest I've ever come to a hole-in-one (four guys watching said it rolled an inch over the cup), and perhaps the two longest 1st & 2nd shots I've ever hit (I think it was a 530-ish yard par 5 and I was pin-high in the rough in two). No need for a cart - I walked it every time I played. Maybe with super-twilight a cart time-wise might let you play two more holes before dark.

Is it finally out? They've been promoting this for what, six months now? I'm sure it's a great movie, but I hate when studios start promoting a movie months before it comes out. People don't pay attention to when the release date is. Maybe that's on purpose - they try to get people to go to the theater not knowing that a movie isn't out yet, and when they get there and realize that it isn't playing they might go, "Oh well, since we're here we might as well see this one..." But on the flip side I think it kills the hype for a movie because by the time it gets out people are sick of seeing the same clips in the trailers for the 1000th time. Sorry, rant over. Back to discussion about how great this movie is.

I know Axford is very old for the league, but didn't he have a major injury or something a couple of years ago that caused him to miss a lot of time, and the year before last was his first year back? Baseball-Reference doesn't have anything on him before 2007. I seem to recall someone saying he has very good velocity, and he seems to have found his niche in the bullpen this year - 22IP, 6H, 10 BB, 30K. Walks are a little high - much less than last year though, and 6 H in 22 IP is sick no matter what your age. He and needs to be bumped up to see what he can do. I know the FSL is a pitcher's league, but the bullpen lines for Wooten, Rapoza, Braddock, Mercedes, and Axford are just amazing.

Anyone starting to think that a Gerut (or Catalanotto)/Katin platoon would be more productive than Hart?

So when can we officially start calling him Rob w00ten? http://images.yuku.com/image/gif/1ed15b9a8d3e15c8adce582459023e9a7997d6c.gif

I'm guessing that Bucci never left Huntsville either, just the "paper" move back to Helena but physically stayed there knowing he would be needed later on. I'm guessing that with all of the rainouts that every team is doing this.

Ack, Dillard just pitched on Sunday. So did my dark horse for a callup - Cody. Odds are Nick Green or Chase Wright - isn't Wright on one of those "paper moves" to Helena, so he should be fresh. They'll probably go for a guy who can go multiple innings. They do have the option of putting Weeks on the 60-day to add Chris Smith. Or they could DFA Julio. But if they have to DL DiFelice they may have to keep Julio for now. My other dark horse - McClendon from AA. Unlikely, but he's been pitching from long relief all season with a 1.02 WHIP and 2.29 GO/AO and only 5 BB in 35 innings.

I'm pretty sure the Brewers like Schafer a lot - in the spring training game they played in LA he was the first guy off the bench (before Duffy, Gwynn, etc.), and didn't they send him to Hawaii after last season? He kind of reminds people of a Brady Anderson "pre-sudden power surge at age 30". He'll be 23 in September, so I think they want to shoot him up the system quickly to see what he can do. Helps to be a LH-hitting CF.

Katin's last 10 games - 39 ABs, 14 H (.359 AVG), 9 R, 2 2B, 1 3B, 7 HRs, 15 RBIs... yeah, I know, 2 BB to 15 K, but when a dude jacks 7 HRs and adds a triple and two doubles to that in 10 days I'll let him strike out as much as he wants in the other ABs. No I'm not going to read any post about the MLE that projects too... blah, blah, blah, let's just enjoy one of the best 10 game stretches I have ever seen a hitter have. Anyone want to calculate the OPS that translates to the last 10 games? His OPS vs. righties this year is .855, so he can hit RH pitching at a reasonable clip. And a .975 OPS with runners on, vs. .832 with bases empty. And he has perhaps the best OF arm in the minors. Methinks some might undervalue him a bit. Part of me misses not seeing TGJ's name at the top of the lineup in Nashville. Good to see Wilson back at 3B. The FSL is really sapping his power (IIRC isn't their stadium particularly tough on RH hitters?) - would be nice to see some of those singles turn into doubles.

We're really not going to get much of anything for him in a sign and trade. He's a restricted free agent, so once he signs an offer sheet from another team, he either goes to the team he signed an offer sheet with or the Bucks match the offer and he comes back to us. My understanding though is that he doesn't become a RFA until 7/1, so if he signs a contract extension prior to 7/1 he will no longer become a free agent, correct? I understand your logic, but Blake doesn't want to be in Milwaukee to the point where he just flat out won't play up to his ability IMO. I think trwi's point was that Blake's contract is not guaranteed, so the only reason for including him is to waive him to clear up cap room.

Katin has been on quite a tear lately. Aguilar looks like he is back on track - 1.80 ERA, 8 H, 10 K, in his last 10 outings, only one walk in his last six appearances/innings. Rapoza has been about as off-the-radar as one could be with what he's done this year, and even going back his last 40 innings or so.

Some questions: 1) What is the status of Mbah a Moute for next year? His salary is not listed here, but he signed a two-year deal, right? 2) What are the odds that Elson and Allen don't cash in their options? If Elson and Allen cash in their option, can the Bucks buy out the options, and if so would the buyout count against the cap? 3) Is Charlie Bell good enough to be able to trade him for a 2nd round pick to clear out his salary? How likely is that? (That would clear cap room for Ilyasova or their draft pick.) How likely would be trading Ridnour for a 2nd to clear up cap room? 4) With the draft being relatively weak after the first three picks, how realistic would it be to trade their first this year to another team for their first next year? If another team wanted to trade up to the Bucks #10 pick, how likely would they be able to trade down and get the other team to take Gadzuric or Ridnour in exchange for swapping picks? 5) Technically this is the last year of Redd's deal, but he has a player option for 2010-11; granted it is at $18M, but how does that affect his trade value this offseason? Would Redd be more likely to take the $18M for one season and then go to free agency, or decline the option and seek a longer-term deal at less than $18M the first year of the deal? 6) Sessions becomes a restricted free agent on 7/1 but the draft is on 6/25; if they draft a PG (preferrably Flynn, or Holiday or Curry) do they just let Sessions walk (or trade him)? If the demand for Sessions is high (according to his agent), what about trading him (in a sign-and-trade for a draft pick) prior to the draft? 7) It is possible to negotiate a longer-term deal with Sessions and CV that is cap-friendly the first two years and then allows for a significant raise the third year when Redd, Jefferson, and Gadzuric's current deals are off the books? My understanding is that Sessions technically doesn't become a RFA until 7/1; would he accept (and would it be wise to offer him) a deal that pays him say $3M the next two years and then say $9M the following two years for an average salary of $6M/year for four years?

It would be a fun story, but it sure looks as if Melvin is done with Sheets and Sheets is done with the Brewers. There seems to be some animosity that we're not entirely privy to. That has been an annoying theme among several pro sports in Wisconsin lately.

While Paul and Williams might be better players than Bogut, drafting a guy who has averaged a double-double or darned near it every year is not a bust. T.J. Ford was a very good player until he got hurt - not a bust. I said Haislip was a bad pick, but lots of teams made bad picks in the first round that year. Nine teams whiffed on their picks after the Bucks before Detroit drafted Prince, and 17 teams whiffed before Boozer was picked. You'd rather have Brandan Wright, who has played a total of 77 games in two years and has averaged fewer points and rebounds per game than Yi? I said I'd rather have Lopez or Jason Thompson over Alexander, but it is still early to judge that one. Oklahoma City was 23-59 this year, and they lucked out in the lottery. Look at Sacramento this year - worst record and they're picking fourth. Had that happen to OKC they woudn't have Durant. Hardly a model there. Will they be in the playoffs in two years when Durant is a free agent and has the chance to leave, and will Durant want to stay? I'd rather take the route of at least having a chance at landing a stud player, Other than Blake Griffin, who I'd say isn't as good as Durant much less any of the guys you mention, there isn't anyone in this draft that would qualify as a stud player. The man gave Francisco Elson and Malik Allen player options. That's my point!! It's not Redd or even Jefferson that's killing them - it's guys like those two and Gadzuric, Simmons, Bell, Van Horn, Ervin Johnson, etc., that have/had the contracts that are killing them. After Redd and Jefferson they still have $35-40M in cap room, eaten up by bad contacts for role players. I've said that. Umm, easily re-sign Sessions, Villanueva and Ilyasova with Jefferson's $14 million salary gone? Villanueva who could probably be had for his qualifying offer of 1 year $4.6 million. Paying $14 million combined next year to Sessions, Villanueva and Ilyasova is better than paying that to Jefferson. Thank you for finally saying what you would do with the cap room, instead of saying "dump their contracts". But CV for one year at $4.6M? No way even in this economy does that happen. You can get two of those three for $14M, but not all three. And they could easly fit that $14M in the cap in addition to Redd and Jefferson because after those two they still have $35-40M in cap space if they didn't have bad contracts with Gadzuric, Bell, Elson, and Allen. Also, if the Bucks had cap space last summer, they would've had Marcus Camby for a right to flip 2nd round picks with the Nuggets. So you're saying that 34-year-old Marcus Camby at $12M per year is the key to the playoffs or rebuilding (can't tell which you're advocating) and a much better bargain than a 28-year-old Jefferson at $14M?

Roy was 6th overall, Rondo 21, Bynum 10, Granger 17, Iguidala 9, Al Jefferson 15, Josh Smith 17, David West 18, Josh Howard 30. For every guy picked past #5 who became a great player (Redd was a 2nd round pick himself), there are five Ndudi Ebi's (#26), Dorrell Wright's (#19), and Joey Graham's (#16). Other than Marcus Haislip and Joel Przybilla, they haven't made a bad pick in the first round since 1991. Their worst picks the last 10 years have come in years where the draft was very thin (Haislip, Przybilla - look at how few starters were picked after those guys those years, and the year they drafted Przybilla they got the best player in the entire draft in the 2nd round in Redd). In fact, I'd argue that they didn't make bad picks - they made bad trades after they picked (IIRC Respert wasn't their pick - they picked Trent and traded for Respert.. at least according to basketball-reference.com that's what happened; Fortson was a good pick but didn't they trade him for Ervin Johnson?) Their other biggest problem is that many years they haven't had picks because of bad trades. Look at 2004, a year they didn't have a first round pick - a Josh Smith, JR Smith, Jameer Nelson, Delonte West, or Kevin Martin would have been nice... but you can't draft well when you don't have a pick because of a bad trade. The Bucks really should have traded away Jefferson for an expiring contract. The salary cap space it would have created would have been perfect for the Bucks. And then do what with the cap space? As JJ and others have established, players don't want to come to Milwaukee unless you overpay them. I fail to see how cap room is going to make them any better, because if you look at the top teams in the league this year none of them acquired any stars via free agency.

Since he's 22 already, I'd like to see him get a promotion to Brevard and see what he can do there. I wouldn't be surprised if the minute that both Brevard has clinched the first half title and Wisconsin is eliminated that move happens. Can we officially say that with Jeffress and Holliman gone, Hand is back in the starting rotation? Katin is on a nice tear... any chance we could get something of value from SF or SD for him?

I'd like to see McClendon get a start. He's been very good in long relief, and has been getting a lot of ground balls (~2.5 GO/AO last I checked).

I just hope that when Redd is FINALLY off the Bucks cap, along with Jeffersons bad contract, whoever is running the Bucks will have learned the lesson about players like those two. Then who is going to score? If you take those two out, even if you keep CV (which you probably won't because he will make more than $6M per year) the average ppg for the remaining group is about 80ppg. Not many teams are going to win many games averaging 80ppg. Now maybe if the Bucks would have done the smart thing by letting Redd walk and trying to rebuild properly, they could still have struggled to build a contender. History has shown that rebuilding via the lottery won't always work, but history has also shown that teams trying to become a legit contender with a one dimensional scorer at SG as your best player is nearly a futile exersise. So if rebuilding via the lottery doesn't always work, how are they supposed to rebuild? If the team is rebuilding and not a contender then free agents are not going to want to come there unless they are overpaid. Players take smaller contracts to go to contenders, not rebuilders. Let's look at the top teams in the league and how they've gotten there. Lakers - trades (Kobe, Gasol), Cleveland - luck (won lottery the right year), trades (Williams, Varejao); Celtics - trades (Garnett, Allen, Davis), draft (Pierce); Orlando - luck (won lottery in right year), trades (Lewis, Nelson); Denver - draft (Anthony), trades (Billups, Smith); San Antonio - luck (won lottery in right year), draft (Ginobli, Parker); Detroit - trades (Billups, Hamilton, Wallaces). So it looks like it takes either luck in winning the lottery (there was no Lebron, Howard, Shaq, etc., sure fire #1 pick when the Bucks won the lottery - Jason Kidd and Chris Paul might have been better picks than Big Dog and Bogut but IIRC none of them have won a title), and/or great trades to build a contender. In no case is it free agents. But in all cases it takes multiple stars, something the Bucks haven't had. Let's not forget that the Bucks did not draft Allen, but traded Marbury for him, in which case it was a very good trade. They just haven't done a good job of trading since then. Yes some of that comes from having cap room, but it's not like Redd takes up 50% of the cap room. What's the cap limit, roughly $65-70M? That leaves at least $50M after Redd to pay players. After Jefferson it leaves at least $35M - what are they doing with that $$?? There is plenty of cap room to have a couple more guys on the team making $5-10M; you just can't have guys like Simmons, Gadzuric, Keith Van Horn, etc., making the kind of money they did. They didn't sign Jefferson, they traded for him - they should have made a better trade. If your argument was that they should have made a better trade then I would agree with that (an argument could be made that Jefferson is a better player than Yi, so in some ways it was a good trade); but your argument is that they should dump Redd and Jefferson and that's not going to solve anything unless they make better moves to acquire players after that. In the cases above none of those teams were built by signing free agents so they have to make good trades, in which case dumping Redd's and Jefferson's contracts for the proverbial bag of balls won't get anything accomplished. In order to make a trade you have to give up something of value in order to get something of value (unless you just get lucky - how did Orlando get Lewis for a conditional second round pick, and how does Denver get JR Smith for two second round picks??) So if your argument is that they should made a good trade, even if it involves Redd or Jefferson, then I would agree with that. But your stance is that you advocate getting rid of their contracts, in which case if they don't get better players for those salaries or less to replace them it isn't going to do any good and they aren't going to get any better. Edit: I also wanted to add that even if Redd is the 30th best player in the NBA, paying him the 15th highest salary in the NBA is hardly the worst contract in the history of the league. It's not like Keith Van Horn or Bobby Simmons.

So no, you don't have to be the worst team in the league to get the #1 pick and we've been one of the worst teams in the league since Redd signed that contract. That's because of the lottery. Even if they were the worst team in the league it is no guarantee they get the #1 overall pick. Or even in the top three - see Sacramento this year. I'm not going to compare him to stars, because Redd is not a star. Redd has averaged over 20ppg for his career, including 21.2, 22.7, 26.7, 25.4, 23.0, and 21.7 the last six years. If that's not a star I don't know what is. Half of the guys you mentioned are not better than Redd, and are only in the picture because they are on teams with stars who make them look better and/or opponents focus on more leaving them more opportunities. Hamilton signed an extension for less than market in hopes of winning a championship with Detriot. Stephen Jackson is a big character risk, and has a much lower shooting % - there's a reason he's played for six teams. Josh Howard plays on a team with Dirk Nowitzkie, Jason Terry, and Jason Kidd. I'll give you Granger and Martin, but if you think Redd is injury prone, Martin is just as bad - he has only started 57 and 46 games the last two years. Martin compared to Redd is a wash. As JJ said though, the economy is different now than when Redd signed. As has been mentioned, the Bucks simply have to start drafting better. They haven't done poorly though either. In 2002 very few players picked after Haislip turned out to be anything more than a bench player; Prince, Kristic (when healthy), Salmons (he took a while to develop), and Boozer were the few who became starters, and Scola and Navarro didn't play for four or five years after they were drafted. They made one of the best picks in the 2nd round with Murray but traded him. In 2003, David West and Josh Howard are the only players drafted after TJ Ford that could be considered to be a better player - it was injuries, not ability, that derailed Ford. In 2004 the problem was not having a pick. In 2005 one could say that Deron Williams and Chris Paul were a better pick than Bogut (no one had Granger on their radar), but Bogut was not a bad pick at all. In 2006 they didn't have a pick; David Noel wasn't a good pick but again, few players picked after him were any better. In 2007 maybe Al Thornton so far is the only one picked after Yi that could be considered to be significantly better, but it's too early to tell, and Sessions might be one of the 10 best players picked after Yi. I'd say the only bad pick was passing on Brook Lopez and Jason Thompson for Joe Alexander, but again they made perhaps the best pick of the 2nd round who so far has looked better than a number of first round picks. Like someone else said, the problem has been bad trades (Gary Payton) and bad contracts to role players (Simmons, Gadzuirc), not drafting and resigning Redd.

Has BC had that many rainouts where Rapoza has not had an opportunity to pitch in 12 days, or is something else going on? He's quietly been on quite a run his last 25 outings dating back to his promotion to Helena. Koshansky quietly up to 9 HRs. Katin with two dingers and a triple in his last two games. Katin the next marginal prospect to get traded for bench help? Supposedly he has quite an arm in RF as well.

If the Bucks didn't sign Redd to a max contract, someone else would have (or come darned close to), and they would have lost him for nothing. And then they would be a much worse team. Well... maybe they would be better because they would have two or three more top-3 picks on the team besides Bogut. Maybe they are a better team because they might have Derrick Rose... but that would mean being the worst team in the league or darned close to in order to get the #1 overall pick. As I posted before, they were 17-16 with him last year, 17-32 without. That says everything I need to know. John Salmons makes $6 million a year and he's just as good of a scorer as Redd. That's because Salmons was a sixth man until this year. He was drafted higher than Redd and took longer to develop than Redd. And when his contract is up he will get a lot more than $6M. Every team in the NBA wouldn't have blinked at giving Redd $6M per year as a free agent, thus why he signed for a lot more than that. Please compare Redd to another player who was a star prior to his contract coming up. And don't compare him to Kobe or Lebron because those are two of perhaps the 10 best players in NBA history and the only reason they aren't signed to bigger contracts is because of the max contract limit. On another tangent... the NBA needs to change its free agent rules if they are ever going to prevent mediocre teams from overpaying their own free agents. Basically with guys like Redd it is either sign them and possibly overpay them a bit or risk losing them with nothing in return (and no guarantee of a top 3 pick because of the lottery). If the NBA made it like baseball where if a team signs a "type-A" free agent the team that loses the player gets that teams #1 pick that would be a lot more fair. That way teams can let a good but not great player go if someone else overpays them and not risk getting nothing in return.

On the positive side, Rogers, Mercedes, Braddock, and Wooten keep rolling on. And nice to see Errecart and Wilson go yard. Nice outing from Aguilar too.