gregmag
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Everything posted by gregmag
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The problem IMHO is that you don’t consider negatives and positives with the same care. Injury risk alone makes a strong upper minors pitching prospect solidly more valuable than the greatest phenom the DSL has ever seen. Physical projectabilty is a two-way street. Yeah, we’re waiting for Mis to develop consistent command; but the reason we’re waiting attentively is that he’s working to command elite stuff. The teeth of MLB routinely spit out pieces of pitchers who commanded the hell out of crap stuff. I agree with you that these two guys have interesting and strong foundations at 17. It’s a cool find and take, and if you framed it that way, it would have been a fine article. But, with all respect, comparing a couple of decent 17 year-olds in the DSL to our top pitching prospects justly shreds your credibility.
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People will mock Harold for this, and I think he’s oversimplifying this prospect analysis like he’s done for years — these two children IMHO have established zero basis for a serious argument that they’re more promising than Gasser or Rodriguez. Context matters a whole lot for projection. That said, Harold circa 2015 was the sole carbon-based life form who thought Brent Suter was on the same planet as, let alone a better prospect than, Orlando Arcia. Today the bWAR tally stands at Suter 6.7, Arcia 5.1. Just sayin’.
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Interesting article — thank you. My question about your framing is whether stats like xBA that we use to measure bad luck outcomes already “bake in” the fielder positioning factors you’re talking about. If so, then it would appear that your points shouldn’t change the conclusions we draw from those stats.
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This is a perfect “heads I win, tails you lose” argument. Tails you lose: When a team trades a superstar reliever, “the expectation is to get good players in return.” Therefore, it is literally impossible for any return from such a trade to be worthy of praise, in the sense of exceeding (my definition of) “the expectation.” Heads I win: Although I have failed to persuade anyone in this discussion that trading Hader was a proximate cause of missing the postseason (and several people have offered evidence for the opposite view), I cling to my opinion that it was; accordingly, the possibility that it was not must be ignored.
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The relocation threat is beyond the pale. Whatever the sober realities of keeping the ballpark in good repair, the threat fully disqualifies Manfred and MLB as any kind of good faith partners. I fully agree with Matthew. This is a shakedown. Manfred is using the Oakland fiasco to extort money from governments. Call his bluff, and live with the outcome. I would much rather see the Brewers move to Charlotte or Sydney or wherever than negotiate with hostage-takers.
