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gregmag

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Everything posted by gregmag

  1. gregmag
    That was awesome, and this to me was the most impressive part: In his sixth and final inning, he got the top three guys in the lineup, all on swinging strikeouts. That said, he would be a lot better off with a third pitch. The Brewers have one of the most interesting pitching situations I can remember. Henderson, Patrick, and Priester have all pitched very well so far. All of them are supposed to be refining their games in AAA. It will be fascinating to see how this all shakes out.
  2. gregmag
    This cracked me up because – notwithstanding your larger point, which is very sound – it would be completely valid on its own terms.
  3. gregmag
    Happy to see Payne, Pena, and Josh A. all back in action. I’ve been rooting for Payne since day one — I love toolsy high school hitters — with a little extra passion because so many people dissed the pick. I know it’s still early, but he’s sure looking like an easy top 100 guy. The fact that it’s still early actually says something in his favor, because most kids that age need some time to adjust to full-season ball. He hasn’t set a foot wrong from day one. I love MLB pipeline. They do great work that takes a lot of effort, and I read it avidly. But sometimes their rankings seem obviously irrational. At this point, there is no way EMJ is the number 30 prospect in the system. Also, how is he an overall 40 grade prospect with component grades over 50 on everything except speed? I’m going to be a reverse curmudgeon here. I think the 20 to 80 scouting scale is stupid. It’s a facially stupid way to design a numerical scale, and it’s a functionally stupid way to try to convey meaningful information. I think once analytics became prominent, old-school scouts wanted revenge, and the analytics gurus meekly started talking the language of 20 to 80 as if it was useful. I greatly value the insights of scouting, and I think scouting and analytics together provide amazing information. But the 20 to 80 scale strikes me as an aging emperor with no clothes.
  4. gregmag
    At some point it’s going to start getting hard for the Brewers to keep Bauers up over EMJ. For me that point came in the offseason. I understand that EMJ gets more playing time in Nashville than he would in Milwaukee, but that doesn’t seem like a great reason for keeping a 25 year-old at AAA. Do we know if there’s anything particular he’s supposed to be working on down there? Off-speed recognition or something?
  5. gregmag
    Priester has done well, and he certainly could be this year’s Myers. So could Patrick. But my sense from what I’ve read is that the Brewers intended for both of those guys to be working on things in AAA. Henderson too. Assuming Woodruff and Myers are both effective when they get back — a big assumption — it would seem like those three “AAA” guys will be competing for one spot. Whoever looks closest to his finished self will stick. I would have to think that Priester has a big edge, given that they just gave up a lot to get him.
  6. gregmag
    I’m sorry that I haven’t already internalized this information, but is the Carolina league a crazily hitter-friendly environment? Because I’m starting to get irrationally excited. These Mudcat batters are ridiculously young, and they all seem to have advanced approaches. But it’s also not like all they do is walk; every one of the known prospects seems to have some combination of bat-to-ball, power, and/or speed. Collectively, power seems to be most lacking, but a lot of hitters tend to develop power later, and again, these guys are absurdly young. I know it’s very early, but my goodness they’re fun to follow.
  7. gregmag
    I don’t understand your point here. Are you saying you don’t think they scouted Priester? Or are you saying they shouldn’t have made the trade because he hasn’t had prior success?
  8. gregmag
    Forgive me if I’ve missed something, but where’s Payne? Is he definitely starting (at least) in the ACL, and definite ACL guys aren’t in these games?
  9. gregmag
    I see both sides of this one. The pushback for Bauers is that he isn't at a point where he might fall off the aging cliff, a lefty bat makes more sense as a complement to Hoskins, and he's likely somewhat less bad in the outfield than Canha. The argument isn't that Bauers might be better than we've seen; it's that Canha is 36. Yes, he was serviceable at 35, which is pretty amazing; but staying amazingly slightly above replacement level from 35 to 36 is a lot less likely to happen than staying stubbornly slightly below replacement level from 28 to 29. To dodge the argument entirely, I think everyone is hoping that either EMJ rakes at Nashville or Tyler Black figures out 1b, which could obviate this whole issue in a few months. This discussion caused me to poke around and see if I could find some kind of aggregate data about how MLB players age. I couldn't -- someone else probably can -- but I did find this fun 2012 Medium piece by Joe Posnanski: https://medium.com/joeblogs/aging-with-chart-a098c93e7ed6 As he says, this doesn't prove anything, but it does provide at least some evidence that hitters decline pretty sharply as they move through their 30s.
  10. gregmag
    It seems like, if three things all happen, trying Turang at ss would still make sense: (1) Dunn doesn't hit; (2) Durbin hits too well at AAA to keep down but still doesn't look like a 3b; (3) Turang recovers and manages to strengthen his shoulder. Moving Ortiz back to 3b in that scenario wouldn't be a big deal. But I doubt all three of those things happen. More likely somebody gets hurt and forces the issue. If Dunn hits, a whole lot of problems disappear or at least get a lot simpler to manage.
  11. gregmag
    Maybe, but after this season the Brewers will likely lose four of their five top SPs to free agency or preemptive trades. If they thought Shane Smith was one of their 12 best SPs right now, it wouldn’t exactly be doing him dirty to build up his innings this year and then give him a real shot at the rotation in 2026. They saw the same results from Smith that we all saw, and they weren’t moved. They certainly could be wrong; Smith could be better by 2026 than one or more of whichever six out of Myers, Ashby, Mis, Hall, Henderson, Hunt, Rodriguez, and whomever else they put in the rotation. Hell, I would have protected him. But they aren’t fools, and they made an informed decision. I’m not inclined to bet a lot on Smith’s immediate success.
  12. gregmag
    The Brewers seem to be approaching pitching with what I think of (I’m sure real analysts have a real term for this) as a “flat talent” strategy. Premium pitching is expensive, so go get a bunch of starters who profile around average. If (when) somebody goes down or just flops, plug in the next guy. Coach them up, avoid exposing their weaknesses, keep the defense elite, and it should work reasonably well. Do it this way and you aren’t gambling real money on anyone, so no injury should completely torpedo your season.
  13. gregmag
    I wish people wouldn’t say things like this. “I’m right, it’s as simple as that.” Actually, it isn’t. The Brewers had one really good reason to leave him unprotected: they’re trying to win, and they clearly didn’t think he could help this year. Did they make the right call? I don’t know, and I doubt we’ll know for a while. Clearly he’s talented, but so are a lot of guys who don’t make it. Five k’s in a spring training game doesn’t move the predictive needle an inch. It’s as complicated as that.
  14. gregmag
    The rotation is massively more reliable than it was a year ago. That takes pressure off the pen, which also looks a lot more reliable than it did a year ago. Last year we needed magic tricks like Myers and Hudson to save the staff. Any magic tricks we come up with this season — Hunt? Henderson? Yoho? — are relative gravy. True, we don’t have two great months of Devin Williams on call; but we may have three decent months of Brandon Woodruff. This rotation is far from sexy, but it’s also far from the problem it was last March.
  15. gregmag
    If you’re getting each of those guys in his prime, you could win a lot of games. Fun to think about.
  16. gregmag
    Outstanding article. I never thought of revenue sharing in terms of an income tax before, but it clicked as soon as you framed it that way. I worry that owners don’t really care about competition. They’re happy with the sport as a glorified exhibition tournament, where audiences tune in nationwide to see star players and fans are generally happy because the teams with the biggest fan bases win the most playoff series and championships. I don’t know how we address the competitive balance problem if the people who run the game don’t care about competitive balance.
  17. gregmag
    Man that’s a hatchet job, and maybe the most smug, condescending subhead I’ve ever seen on this site. I don’t even disagree much, but now you’ve got me rooting for Black just to teach you some humility.
  18. gregmag
    I just don’t see how 25 hr with a .275 OBP is desirable, let alone irresistible. DeJong’s defense does help the argument. But power doesn’t happen in a vacuum. Yes, home runs count. So do outs, and DeJong makes outs at one of the worst rates in MLB. I think the Brewers are wise enough not to go this direction. As for the “Durbin and Dunn haven’t done it in MLB” argument, what DeJong has done the past several years in MLB has mostly been appalling. I’ll take an unproven flyer over a proven albatross seven days a week.
  19. gregmag
    Trax, I don’t mean to pick on you, and I know you were just making a casual comparison. But I’ve seen a bunch of people compare Payne to Ray more pointedly, and it just doesn’t make sense. Yes, they’re both outfielders the Brewers drafted in the first round. Ray washed out, and Payne very well could wash out. But. Ray was *4 years older* on draft day than Payne was. IMHO that’s as major a difference between two drafted players as there can ever be. Ray had a very short runway, and he couldn’t get off the ground. Payne has as long a runway as anyone in the minors.
  20. gregmag
    Gilbert Lara supports your point. His first season was nine years before Made’s. In no minor league season did Lara OPS higher than .655. Made has already exceeded Lara’s achievements by a lot.
  21. gregmag
    Just Google “Brewers Garrett Crochet.” Numerous media outlets reported that the Brewers actively pursued Crochet. Finding this information is not rocket science. (Even I can do it!)
  22. gregmag
    “He would improve their situation at those positions much more than his removal would worsen their array of options in right and center fields.” Would he, though? Do we have any reason to think he can play 3b well? Why do we think he would outhit Durbin / Dunn? I’m not saying I know he can’t do these things; I’m just saying I don’t see much evidence that he can. It feels like a total crapshoot.
  23. gregmag
    Defensive metrics are important, fascinating, and tricky. I ‘d say when the collective “eye test” is so strong that a player wins a platinum glove, that makes a pretty heavy mark in the column of the metric that rated the player more highly.
  24. gregmag
    He’s going to be 30 this year. He had a good year when he was 24. He has had one decent year since then, when he was 26. Infielders don’t gain a step defensively as they age. Injury problems don’t ease up. In fact, age 30 is right about when those vectors commonly go south for non-stars like Moncada. When the Brewers signed Grandal, he was coming off three straight 20-homer seasons at the most demanding defensive position. He was a great bet. Moncada is coming off three straight lost years. He looks to me more like a vain hope. IMHO you’ve made as good an argument as there is for signing him, and it still sounds to me like spending money for the sake of spending money and hoping against hope for a 20-hr season even if it comes with a bad OBP and declining defense — for a team whose identity is strong OBP and great defense. It reminds me of people who thought trading Hunter Renfroe was a mistake. Baseball players are strange beasts, and I would love to be wrong about Moncada, especially if we sign him. I just don’t see any reasonable expectation that he’ll help.
  25. gregmag
    Injuries, plural, didn’t derail Ray Fosse’s career. Pete Rose did, in his signature moment of the selfishness and low character that permeated his life and career.
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