gregmag

I suspect the Brewers know all about his reverse splits and Rosenthal doesn’t.

I am really glad someone brought this up. I think the calls to add power, even by some very informed commentators, have seemed pretty reflexive and not backed by data. I’m not saying those calls are wrong; I’m not informed enough to be able to say that one way or the other. I’m just saying that they aren’t obviously right, and the proponents keep presenting them as obviously right. Bill James did a similar study years ago in one of his abstracts to some of the articles cited above. He used a relatively bad low power guy and a relatively bad low OBP guy — maybe Vince Coleman and Dave Kingman? The upshot was that a lineup full of decent OBP guys works much better than a lineup full of decent power guys. It makes intuitive sense; stringing together sequences of likelier small events is more reliable than stringing together sequences of less likely big events. My other pet peeve that this topic brings up is the failure to recognize that young players, as a group, tend to add power as they age. Of course it’s not guaranteed, more than it’s guaranteed that Pete Alonzo won’t suck next year. But it would cut strongly against what we know from past experience if, as a group, Chourio, Mitchell, Ortiz, Frelick, and Turang didn’t meaningfully increase their power output in 2025. Steamer is right to make that bet. To put the point in more concrete terms: the name that I have probably heard the most as a power bat that would make sense for the Brewers to add (based on position and likely budget) is Yoan Moncada. Over the past three seasons, Moncada has slashed .236/.291/.387. he has had two good seasons, when he was 24 and 26. Next year he will be 30. Are we really better off paying serious (in Brewers terms) money for that kind of power-heavy profile, rather than just rolling with the options we have at third base? I’m not saying those are the only two possible choices, but again, Moncada is a frequently discussed avatar of the “add power“ plan. I just don’t get it. We’ve been down a similar road with Hoskins, and it hasn’t worked out great so far.

If Durbin puts up a strong OBP, then I won’t care too much about his lack of power. The problem with Frelick and Turang on offense hasn’t been that they don’t hit home runs — it’s been that they don’t hit. Maybe the reality is that you need the exit velo to get the OBP; we’ll see. But I think viewing Durbin as “redundant” of Frelick and Turang misses some nuance.

This is fantastic. When I was a kid in the 70s, Rico Carty was one of those “back of the baseball card” players. Like, the back of this guy’s baseball card looks really good. Why don’t we ever hear about him? Your take on the racial issues surrounding players like Carty is spot on, IMHO. Venerating the extraordinary grace of someone like Jackie Robinson should never be cause for invalidating the anger of different people who had every earthly right to be angry.

Matthew, forgive me if I’m just uninformed, but I don’t quite get your point about transaction costs. If you would indulge me, I would love to hear a little more about that. what would’ve been the downside of adding Rodriguez to the roster and trading him? If I am remembering right, the Brewers have had open 40-man spots since shortly after the end of the season. Assuming – and I understand this is a big assumption – that they could have gotten any kind of a worthwhile asset for Rodriguez, why not add him to the roster and try to make a trade?

This isn’t a “Brewers writers ignorance” thing. It’s a “Harold doggedness” thing, and it has been for many years. BTW, I think this is article is very well done. But Harold still thinks Ryan Braun has a chance to stick at shortstop.

You don’t trade for 30 year-olds based on unrealized potential.

This is one of those essays that very ably clarifies why the opposing view is right. You don’t get 3-4 years of peak value at Adames’s age. Defense at shortstop doesn’t stop mattering because you have great defense at 2b and 3b. The Mets’ Bonilla deal gets mocked for excellent reasons, and the Brewers don’t have Mets money. Maybe most important, Adames’s intangibles — which I agree are huge — don’t make him the one person on the planet without whose leadership the Brewers will collapse. The team needs to trust its culture. You don’t pay a player superstar money because of his value as a coach, and you don’t buy a middle infielder’s 30s for what his 20s have been worth.

Katie Woo, a smart writer when she isn’t being an unbearable homer, has an extensive article at The Athletic (paywall) about the Cardinals’ organizational failings. Basic thrust is that they’ve cheaped out for years on player development in favor of spending on the MLB roster, causing their prospects to be underprepared when they get to St. Louis. Here’s a summary: https://redbirdrants.com/posts/anonymous-cardinals-sources-flame-organization-in-brutal-post-elimination-takedown-01j8swe0d40x

Objectively meaningless reasons that I subjectively care about winning today’s game: Currently tied for the third-best record in MLB; could tie for second-best if the Phillies lose. Chance to get to second-best run differential in MLB (Yankees presently four better). Ten-game division margin looks shinier in the history books than nine.

I’m another one of the old guys – born in 1967, really started paying attention just in time for spring training 1978 and the dawn of the first golden era. Then I graduated high school, moved around the country for school and work, and held onto the Brewers as my closest connection to home while they more or less stunk up the joint for 25 years. As luck would have it, I landed in St. Louis of all places in 2008, just in time for what has become the second golden era. I never thought the day would come when I’d have to stop and think how many division titles this makes. What a ride, and what a team we have.

I’m sure I’m forgetting something, but I can’t remember the last time he blew a plate appearance. It seems like he almost always hits the ball hard somewhere. I’m beginning to think his numbers actually understate how well he’s hitting.

Love him to death, and thanks for the article with all the cool stats. I’ll be sorry to see him go, but I agree with others that the Brewers should not (assuming they even could) pay market rate for his future based on what he has done in his prime.

I am fully convinced that, around the batting cage today, Willy or William was needling Chourio about not drawing walks. “Don’t you know that great hitters draw walks so that they get on base more?” I can see the look on Jackson’s face, carefree and analytical at the same time. “Walks. Yeah. That makes sense. Okay.” Then whichever of Willy or William didn’t start the conversation chimes in with “Oh, but you have to stay aggressive. You can’t get all passive looking for your walks.” Jackson with that look again. “Draw walks, but also stay aggressive.“ Jackson smiles and nods. “Thanks guys.”

Frankie Montas, ladies and gentlemen. Seven innings of brutally efficient one-hit ball, on the road against technically the (now former) second-place team in the division. He was still hitting 97 in the 7th. In no way am I saying I saw this coming, but maybe the Brewers brain trust know what they’re doing.

I love this perspective. Nothing will take away the sting of 1982 and 2011, when the Cardinals rode lethal combinations of strong play and dumb luck to kill two of the three best shots the Brewers ever had to win a championship. But yeah, they’re just another team now — one that’s been pretty bad at turning prospects into players. I’m actually guardedly optimistic that they’ll have a little run and hang onto their complacency a while longer.

Which team should we all be rooting against in the Cardinals-Dodgers series? Last night I was reflexively rooting against the Cardinals because of the division. Then it dawned on me that we’re a lot closer to a bye than we are to losing the division lead. But relaxing about the division feels like an affront to the baseball gods. I’m struggling here.

A year ago the Brewers were 65-56 with a 2.5-game division lead and (per Fangraphs) 63 percent division odds and a .505 remaining strength of schedule. Today the Brewers are 69-52 with a 9-game division lead, 95 percent division odds, and a .500 remaining strength of schedule. Oh, and the division is stronger this year. The other four teams are a collective 14 games under .500, compared to 34 under a year ago today.

It’s one thing for the Brewers to be good, which they undeniably have been. It’s a whole other thing to be good AND lucky — like losing three of four and expanding their division lead. Team of destiny!

Jim, somehow after all these years your recaps just keep getting even better and more enjoyable. The good material helps, but thank you!

That strikes me as a very odd comparison. Corey Ray was nearly 22 (21 years, 9 months) when the Brewers drafted him. My distant memory is that he was one of the oldest players high on draft boards that year. What you saw with him was close to what you were going to get. In that important respect, he was more like Matt LaPorta, Kenny Felder, or Todd Dunn. Very different profile, but still an older college player with limited development time left. Payne is like Ray in the sense that he's athletic and toolsy, but he's 4.5 years younger than Ray was on draft day 2016. That difference dwarfs any similarities. Age is the most important stat for any prospect. Payne is the exact opposite kind of prospect from Ray -- a longer-term development project. Ray just had a weird trajectory because you expect guys like him to be safe picks, and he ended up crashing. Payne is high risk by definition, but I trust the scouts and analytics guys who see a potential impact player.

Shocker: MLB’s biggest pythagorean underperformer kicks the living run differential out of MLB’s biggest pythagorean overperformer.

I was as happy when the Brewers signed Rhys Hoskins as anybody else. 1b has been a black hole. We needed power. The money wasn’t going anywhere else. A name guy signed with the Brewers! But some doubts nagged at me. The only season where either BRef or Fangraphs had him above 2.2 WAR was 2022. BRef had that season at 3.0 WAR. Fangraphs said 2.4. So by the conventional understanding of WAR, we’re talking about a player who has had one season when he just barely deserved to start. A player who is now (just) on the wrong side of 30, coming off a major injury. He has been dead replacement level this year when healthy. He is putting up his worst wRC+ ever at 107. Yes, he has improved our 1b production over last year, but that by itself is not a nice thing to say about somebody. He has fully lived down to his reputation as a horrific 1b defender, the only hole in our plan to let opposing batters make weak contact and then catch everything. I’m writing this while he’s on a cold streak. We’re all waiting for him to get hot. But really, is that even a thing? Is Hoskins actually a player you can reasonably count on to make any kind of difference? Bauers has matched Hoskins’ replacement level production almost exactly, just with less bat and more glove. If we can’t come up with anybody better, is there any reason other than money not to just platoon them?

I think you do a great job of assessing our trade assets. However, given the way you wrote the article, it seems weird that you don’t even mention Rodriguez (except as a trade piece), Myers, or Wilson. I’m not suggesting those guys are world-beaters, but they’re relevant to the conversation. You basically tell a story of how the Brewers’ rotation is in a shambles and definitely needs one big star to save it from oblivion. I don’t think that story rings true. If Freddy’s problem really is that he feels like he has to carry the rotation, someone just needs to tell him that right now everyone else in the rotation is out-pitching him, so don’t worry about it. All that said, I would be more than usually willing to trade a bunch of our top prospects now. I think Wilken should be untouchable given the Adames situation and the fact that Wilken has been on a downswing that I think he will come out of. I’m reluctant to part with Quero, although the argument that Contreras makes him expendable is easy to see. I think Rodriguez may have more value right now as a pitcher for us than as trade leverage. But Mis, Black, Boeve, Adams — in the right deal, sure.

Two questions about that stat: Does it treat openers as starters? Do we have it broken down by month? I ask because I have a sense that maybe, as the season has progressed, the Brewers have gotten more out of their (real) starters, though I could be completely wrong.