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gregmag

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  1. gregmag
    I would add that even those scenarios assume that Boston would want to trade a key vet hitter to get a key vet pitcher, which isn’t impossible but doesn’t make a lot of intuitive sense. Teams that trade for key veterans want to be seen as “going for it,” which is why they usually trade prospects, not vets, to get vets. Anyway, the line of discussion you’re ably responding to strikes me as pointless. I remember a decade ago when the Brewers traded arguably their best hitter from the prior season, an Established Big League Power Bat, for three A-ball prospects — the exact opposite of the kind of move some folks here want the team to make now. The vet, Adam Lind, got old and never did squat again. One of the prospects — “which are exactly that, prospects,” we hear over and over, and are therefore inconsequential— was Freddy Peralta.
  2. gregmag
    Yankees just resigned Bellinger, so they would probably deal Spencer Jones. He’s a whole foot taller than Jett Williams. All kidding aside, he’s a young, blocked, power hitting corner of, which seems like a good profile to pursue. He does strike out a ton.
  3. gregmag
    Well, yes, Williams is a short infielder. On the other hand, he was drafted much higher and has been rated much higher as a prospect than Durbin ever was, which may reflect the fact that he’s a shortstop who can also play cf and that (according to the first couple of scouting reports I’ve found) he has more power. That doesn’t sound to me like a clone. These are two top draft picks who have become top prospects in a very strong system. They do things the Brewers can use, and they come with full periods of team control. By all means, get more if you can, but I would take this deal for Freddy in a heartbeat.
  4. gregmag
    Yeah, I was just about to post about Polanco. The Mets could use Baty different ways, but the most common read I’m seeing is super utility. That’s absolutely someone they would part with in the right deal. I think a deal focused on him would make a ton of sense for the Brewers. He’s a young, controllable guy with power, but not only power, and he fits a need – I would be OK rolling with Durbin, but we need to improve our overall infield depth one way or another. I’ve never really understood the emphasis on a starting pitcher in a Peralta trade, since one of the reasons I’m OK trading Peralta is that we’ve got a lot of good young starting pitching.
  5. gregmag
    When it comes to competitive integrity, I miss the steroid era. At least all the players had access to the same drugs.
  6. gregmag
    Super fun to relive this. Thanks Michael!
  7. gregmag
    This is a great analysis, but I too think the Yankees’ acquisition of Weathers does not significantly diminish the chances that they’ll trade for Peralta. Reading some Yankees fan boards, a lot of people seem to think Weathers is an injury risk, a potential bullpen piece, and/or just not reliable. He has the look of back-of-the-rotation depth rather than a frontline piece on the order of Peralta. I understand the basis for Jack’s view that the Brewers might have liked a couple of the prospects in the Weathers trade, but neither of those guys seems like a piece whose absence becomes a dealbreaker, or even much of a deal complicator, for a Peralta trade with Milwaukee. FWIW, I’m strongly in favor of trading Freddy, and I agree with the people who would rather focus the trade on a young outfielder with power, or maybe an infielder who can complement the guys we have, rather than another starting pitcher. A big part of my comfort with trading Freddy is that I think the young starters we already have can, given the way the Brewers mix and match players, substantially or even fully replace Freddy‘s on field value this season.
  8. gregmag
    With our pitching staff, I don’t think we’ll kill our infield defense to pay $15-$20m to an aging one-dimensional slugger. Adding power would be great, but not at the cost of subtracting everything else.
  9. gregmag
    He’s coming off a career year. He’s hitting the age when players in general starts to decline and pitchers are more likely to get hurt. We have a ton of decent rotation options. Obviously the answer depends on the return, but it seems very likely that we can trade him for value that’s harder to generate from what we already have.
  10. gregmag
    Prospects are players. If we think we can fill Peralta’s role with guys we have, and if the best trade options on offer can help us at the deadline or in a year or two rather than this opening day, then that’s the trade we should make.
  11. gregmag
    I would just call the comp picks a wash. The Brewers IIRC wanted the comp pick in the Burnes deal to make up for the one they’d have gotten if they kept Burnes. If anything, they added a bit of value by pushing the comp pick up a year.
  12. gregmag
    If Thanos infinity-gauntlets Durbin tomorrow, we still won the Williams trade. We’ve already gotten more value than we gave up in the Burnes trade. I’m not going to relitigate the Hader trade for the 217th time, so I’ll just say that I view Contreras as part of that trade yield. We could not have extended any of those guys, given how Mark A. chooses to operate. We had no problem replacing any of their contributions. If we get the same quality of result from a Peralta trade, I’ll be very happy.
  13. gregmag
    Very good, thorough assessment, Jason. I think Lathund is spot on about the Cubs; that’s the one change I’d make to the article. I was just looking back at the Brew Crew Ball threads from when the Brewers traded Hunter Renfroe for a package including Elvis Peguero and then signed Blake Perkins. The people who were most annoyed that the Brewers wouldn’t pay their “best hitter” $11 million got even more annoyed when the FO gave a roster spot to an apparent career minor leaguer. That story has a lot of morals to it, but the relevant one for this discussion is that trying to predict exactly how and where the Brewers are going to find more wins in the late winter is nearly impossible. One way or another, they keep doing it.
  14. gregmag
    Fly the L as often as possible.
  15. gregmag
    When I was in 4th or 5th grade, around 1979 or 1980, John Counsell came to my school to speak to our fledgling card collectors’ club. He had a kind, positive manner, very patient with us kids, and he definitely fueled our excitement about Brewers baseball. Back in 2017, I lost my mom the week before Christmas. She was just about that same age. I hope the Counsell family can be together to celebrate a life well lived.
  16. gregmag
    I don’t hate what the Pirates have done, but it seems a lot closer to making moves for the sake of making moves than it does to making any kind of meaningful statement. Could they be better next year? Sure. I would kind of hope so. Any team that bad should by all rights get at least somewhat better. But at this moment, I can’t see any reason to think the division overall will be better next year.
  17. gregmag
    This is very reasonable and well stated. Here’s the counterpoint: We know the FO aren’t idiots. If they aren’t idiots, then we should fairly presume that they have some reason for any given move beyond what an idiot might do. So if someone’s reason for criticizing a move depends on things like surface stats that any idiot could cite, I think it’s fair to ask what else the critic has to say. To put the point another way, I think when you criticize a move, it’s always worth thinking seriously about what the *best* reason is that the team might have made the move. I find that technique, when I remember to do it, ups my critical game. (I think some people in this thread have done that.)
  18. gregmag
    Well, you’re not discounting Pena, but then you are. First you literally discount him by saying he’s in the “20 to 70 range” of MLB prospects, which is kind of like saying that the Brewers were one of the top three or so teams in the NL Central last year. Then you say Pena would be a reach for Buxton. Then you say not wanting to trade Pena for Buxton amounts to “prospect hugging,” which BTW is every bit as mature and nuanced as just calling you a Twins homer and being done with it. Buxton’s a walking (on his good days) MASH unit who, at 31, just topped 400 PAs for the first time since he was 23. Players tend to decline, and to get hurt more not less, in their 30s. Anyone who isn’t predicting substantial decline for Buxton next year, and pricing his trade value accordingly, is delusional. That said, he’s a good fit, he’s pretty cheap, and the Brewers have outfield depth to backstop his inevitable two-month injury. I’d offer Adams or Wilken, Hall, Lockridge to fill Buxton’s roster spot, and somebody like Jose Anderson or Griffin Tobias.
  19. gregmag
    I want to combine your two excellent points. One great thing about younger players is that they tend to improve, while older players tend to decline. When you’re looking at WAR lost and gained, you also have to think about aging curves for the returning players. The Brewers are much better off for having so many WAR come from guys under age 27, as opposed to a team like the Phillies with a bunch of aging stars.
  20. gregmag
    A key minor character in the fifth, final season of Stranger Things, the initial chunk of which dropped today, is named Derek Turnbow. Even with the misspelling, that can’t possibly be a coincidence. It gets better: the character seems to be about nine years old, and the season takes place in 1987. Our Derrick was born in January 1978. I need to know the backstory here. (I went to college with one of the main creative people on ST. It says a lot about what he was like in college that I’m a huge fan of the show, and this is the first time I’ve ever wished I had kept in touch with him.)
  21. gregmag
    I think the Brewers likely trade Peralta now, and not at all because of the money. They have Priester, Mis, Patrick, Henderson, and Gasser as very likely rotation guys, with Myers, Ashby, and Hall as possibilities. They’re going to have to rely on that group after 2026. Now they have a veteran anchor for the group. The question is what’s more valuable: 2026 Freddy or the prospects you can get for him plus the development of whichever young guy takes his place. I don’t think that’s a slam dunk, but I bet someone will offer enough to make trading him worth it.
  22. gregmag
    Wow. It might be worth acknowledging that this take on Crow is an outlier. Also, the article makes it seem like it’s rare or eccentric to put guys on the 40-man who likely wont help right away, which just isn’t true.
  23. gregmag
    Yeah, this argument only holds water if the Brewers would have actually benefited by making challenges they didn’t make. But nothing in the article offers any basis for believing they would have. The cost of an unsuccessful challenge is losing your challenge. If you opt not to challenge a low-leverage, 50-50 call early in the game, you’re opting to preserve the challenge in case you need it for a higher-leverage spot later. Is that a good tradeoff? I don’t know, because the margins in either direction are tiny.
  24. gregmag
    If the big issue here is a 40-man crunch, the first outfield move has to be dumping Berroa.
  25. gregmag
    Thorough and thoughtful article, but what’s the evidence that Durbin will likely continue to burn out? Why shouldn’t we instead assume that he just hit a rookie wall?
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