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gregmag

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  1. gregmag
    Lathund, just to clarify: Thomas, like Miller and Montgomery, is on the 60-day DL. Would Thomas take one of those open spots when he’s activated, or is he already taking up one of the 40 slots? Same question for Mitchell. I think your whole rundown makes good sense. I would have to think Lockridge makes Berroa expendable even by the reasoning that caused the Brewers to pick up Berroa.
  2. gregmag
    What is your basis for all this insinuation?
  3. gregmag
    Gasser is still shaking off rust. If we look past recency bias, he’s pretty clearly a better pitcher than Hall at this stage in both guys’ development. I’m sure the Brewers have been carefully watching Gasser in throwing sessions. Their roster decisions have worked out so far, which doesn’t mean this one will, but I’m inclined to think they’re doing it based on meaningful information that they trust.
  4. gregmag
    I was thinking about this too with Miz. In a small but important way, that was a player development moment. People often say player development goes out the window in high-leverage games, most obviously the playoffs. But a team like the Brewers always has to be thinking about what’s next. I’m not saying you put Miz in there if you don’t believe it’s a viable strategy for winning the game. But when Murphy put him in, I’m sure part of the calculation was the benefit of testing him in a tough situation and increasing his confidence. If that sounds rash, remember that player development isn’t just about the medium- or long-range future. It’s also about the short-range future. When you have a lot of young players, you’re watching them develop in real time. If Miz is just a little bit better-developed player in, say, game two of the LCS than he was the day before yesterday, that could be huge very quickly.
  5. gregmag
    Please don’t say people are “just guessing” when you don’t understand or (much more likely) simply refuse to credit the perfectly valid information they’re referring to. It’s incredibly condescending. Two years of age is massively important in projecting young players’ value. This isn’t new information or especially hard to demonstrate. I remember Bill James wrote something about it in his 1987 Baseball Abstract. IIRC he both did a study of rookies by age and explained the importance of aging curves — basically, a 21 year old has more time to improve before physical decline starts to set in than a 23 year old does and thus is likely to have a higher peak. Before you ask — no, I haven’t run the studies myself. Do you really refuse to believe anyone who claims expertise or labor beyond your own? Like, for example, people who develop formulas to improve over the analytic and predictive value of counting stats?
  6. gregmag
    I’m sure Hoskins is unhappy. You expect that from a competitor. But I’d be unhappy if Murphy was putting veteran respect over optimizing the roster.
  7. gregmag
    The premise of this article is circular. The regular season is the regular season. The playoffs are the playoffs. The World Series is the World Series. All true. The rest is down to preferences, not the immutable truths the author is imagining. Would I trade one World Series win for turning five to ten years of contention into five to ten years of being the Pirates? No. I’d rather spend more days happy about the team I’m watching. If you want that tradeoff — as if there are any guarantees — I’m sure we could have shipped out Made, Pena, and Miz for the deadline guys the Padres and Mariners got. The argument that the playoffs are little or no more meaningfully random than the regular season is utterly unconvincing. N = 5 or N = 3 vs. N = 162. It’s pretty straightforward. If the Brewers wash out in the playoffs again, people will keep saying the same refrain they’ve been saying. It’s too bad, but that’s people for you. If the Brewers make the World Series, at least some of those people will credit the team/org for “finally figuring out how to win.” You can, of course, choose to take that reasoning seriously if you want. I’ve had some great baseball summers lately. I’m looking forward to more.
  8. gregmag
    You don’t have to berate other posters repeatedly. The only thing you seem to care about is what you have the right to do, and saying “silly post” repeatedly is another thing you sure have a right to do. You could also make the choice to try to participate in a friendly way in a community – you’ll probably think it’s silly of me to presume on your almighty autonomy by making that suggestion.
  9. gregmag
    I was just about to post this. Tears, plus laughter out loud for the “expensive TVs” line.
  10. gregmag
    Gantner had 4.3 bWAR in his career year, 1983. He never had another season above 2.6 bWAR, and he only topped 2 bWAR four other times. Fernando Vina wasn’t even a poor man’s Jim Gantner, with a top Brewers bWAR of 3.1 and nothing else over 1.7. Peaked at 3.2 with St. Louis in 2000. Ronnie Belliard? Top two Brewers seasons of 3.5 and 2.4. Had his best year with Cleveland at 4.5 in 2005. Weeks, unlike the other three, actually put up two 3-WAR seasons as a Brewer: 3.6 and 3.0. Turang, in just three seasons, already has two — 4.7 last year, 5.5 this year — that beat any season any of those four guys ever put up. He has already clearly eclipsed all of them, unless you want to argue that standing around for 17 years taking up space on mostly bad teams amounts to something other than mediocrity. Molitor had the only Brewers 2b career better than Turang’s, barely — 12.1 bWAR to 11.7, both in three seasons. I don’t know what to do about 1990, when Molitor put up 3.2 bWAR in 103 games, just 60 at 2b. Turang won’t be Paul Molitor, but if he has one or two more good years, he’ll be a greater Brewers 2b than Paul Molitor was. (Shout out to Don Money — 5.1 bWAR in his only year as a primary 2b, 1977.)
  11. gregmag
    Looking back at preseason predictions, it really is amazing not only how many prognosticators underrated the Brewers but how many underrated the NL Central. I really can’t see any argument that ours wasn’t the second best division in baseball this year, after the AL East.
  12. gregmag
    Jansen eventually held up his end in the opportunities he got — credit to him. But looking at what Haase did before the trade and what Jansen did after, I can’t for the life of me see any meaningful difference in impact.
  13. gregmag
    Well, i’m already planning to go to the Friday and Saturday games. Seems like I’ll need to get to Sunday now.
  14. gregmag
    That sounds right for our odds against the Phillies. But unlike in the division, other teams are close to the Phillies in the “best record in MLB” race. If the Reds and Cardinals were a game behind the Cubs (like the Tigers and Blue Jays are with the Phillies), our division odds would be lower, because there would be more plausible scenarios in which someone else could catch us. (Of course, best record in the NL matters more than best record in MLB overall, because having a better record than any AL team only matters if we get to the World Series, and then only if the AL team with a better record is the one that gets there.) As I write all that, my 70% does sound very low. So if we are at, say, 93% with the Phillies, and then maybe 96% with the tigers and Blue Jays, and let’s throw in 97% with the Dodgers because Projection systems always love the Dodgers, what does that shake out to overall . . . maybe high 80s?
  15. gregmag
    Brewers’ division odds now 99.4% at Fangraphs, bye odds at 99.3%. What we’re really competing for now is the best record in MLB. I don’t know that anyone calculates those odds. Given the greater number of teams in play, I would guess maybe 70% right now, but that might be way off.
  16. gregmag
    That’s 40 PAs for Jansen, while playing sporadically and learning to catch a new pitching staff midseason. I wasn't a fan of the Jansen trade, but come on.
  17. gregmag
    That is fantastic news about Wilken and Adams — thanks, guys!
  18. gregmag
    Bad Payne is back, and I am sad. Made and Burke are BABIPing like crazy since their promotions, but they’re also ISOing like crazy, which in theory shouldn’t correlate too strongly.
  19. gregmag
    Fair enough, but at that point I’m not sure why “shaky” matters or if it’s even a bad thing. The factors you’re describing actually seem integral to DW’s success. Throw a bunch of pitches, keep guys off balance, don’t be afraid to walk a few batters, prevent runs. Lather, rinse, repeat. It’s a variation on how Nolan Ryan pitched.
  20. gregmag
    IMHO “peaking too soon” is only a real thing if you’re expending a scarce resource. The Brewers have a schedule to play. If they’re playing a game, they play to win. Same thing was true of yesterday’s game; same thing will be true of tomorrow’s game. They’re winning a lot. I can’t see how that’s anything but good.
  21. gregmag
    Plus he’s a young fireballer who’s still figuring stuff out. The ump squeezed him, his command started to slide, and he couldn’t adjust. An outing like that was totally predictable, especially coming off the layoff. He’ll be fine; it will just take some time for him to develop more consistency.
  22. gregmag
    This is about as fun as it gets. The lead is small enough that the games absolutely matter and will create an intense atmosphere. The lead is big enough that we don’t have to freak out with every setback — at least not yet.
  23. gregmag
    Brewers now cannot end the Cubs series in worse than a tie for first place. Not that I’m expecting the worst, but that gives you a little bit more room to breathe.
  24. gregmag
    Siegler, after he had to come out of yesterday’s game?
  25. gregmag
    The Cardinals just lost two of three at home to the Rockies. Tanking for draft picks? They’ve pretty clearly given up.
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