gregmag

Yes, Patrick, you're right -- I have very extreme views about this draft. I respect and appreciate that you and lots of other very smart and knowledgeable people have defended the practice of using high draft picks on HS pitchers. I don't intend disrespect toward anyone with that point of view, but I really, strongly, completely disagree with it. Having that opinion, when I look at a draft chock full of premium college arms and see my team focusing on HS pitching in the early rounds, I can't help but conclude that they're throwing away the best resource they have. When I consider the financial situation of the team, what already look to me like bad choices take on an aura of surrender. I'm still waiting for a high school pitcher drafted by the Brewers to help the team. I'm not saying it's a low-percentage strategy -- I'm saying, based on this organization's longtime experience, that it's flushing high draft choices down the toilet. Two highly regarded HS arms in the first two rounds . . . wow, will we end up with Henderson and Hill, or Gold and Neugebauer? I know Jack Z is a genius, but his rep is a lot more about the position prospects he's found than the arms. So yeah, I'm in a crap mood to begin with, but my belief that this draft is a train wreck isn't a fit of pique; it's a strong conviction. I'm not in this to get to say I told you so; I hope I'm wrong about the results, and if I am then I must be wrong about the organization's mindset, and I'll happily take my whacks from anyone who wants to say they told me so. BTW, thanks for leading the charge to provide us all with so much info and insight up to and through this draft. Greg.

I have to think "strong facial features" gets the prize for dumbest scouting quote thus far. I can't find the "general ********" thread, so I'll just take this first opportunity after my return from six unwired days to say that I think this draft is a disaster. The HS arms will break down, or they won't develop. Taking HS pitchers with high draft picks is like gambling without any information, when you have the alternative of gambling with lots of information. To me, this draft says "the team is for sale, we really don't think we're going to contend in three years, so let's just forget about trying to get better." I love Jack Z, and I'll be rooting for these guys, but my optimism about the Brewers' future has just been cut in half. Of course, I could just be in a bad mood because I've had to look at Ronald Reagan in a cowboy hat all day, grinning smugly from every airport newsstand kiosk from here to Columbus. But whatever. I'm in a serious bad mood, and this draft is still around to blame for it. Greg.

Okay . . . so much for that fine night of pitching. Minor leaguers -- can't live with 'em, can't live without 'em. Greg.

Woo-hooo!!!

SOLID night for Obie, against a decent lineup, after not having gotten a start since, like, 1978. That's called earning yourself some rope. Hendrickson's eventually going to prove he's better than Obie and/or Santos, but events of the past 24 hours suggest that may not happen for a while. Greg.

Al, you've said that before, and I'm curious why you like him as much as you do. I don't mean the question in a "defend yourself, fool" way at all; I'm really curious. He has been solid throughout his career, and he has stayed healthy;those are two huge things. But his peripheral stats have never screamed "sleeper." What do you see that jazzes you? Me, I'm becoming Jeff Housman's number one pimp. I thought Sickels' rating him the #20 prospect in the organization coming off last year's unearned run fest was ludicrous, but the boy has been eating his spinach, or something, at Huntsville this year. It's too soon to be confident of anything, but he has looked like a different pitcher so far this year. Greg.

What a fun group of pitchers today! Liriano is coming off a great start, IIRC; Housman, in my mind, is the most improved prospect of the year so far; Manny has started to look like his old self despite pitching in a shooting gallery; and Pena has been solid. Very cool times. Greg.

I'm as dubious about Obie as anybody, but before we punch his ticket out of town, let's get Cap healthy AND see what we have in Santos. He wasn't great last night against a weak lineup, and while he's pitched a few solid games, I think he's still some distance from proving that he's better than Obermuller, let alone that he's really any good. I'm rooting for him, and I'd pick him over Obie if I had to place a bet right now. But it's far from settled. You have to love the way the bullpen has gotten it together. I haven't looked back at the box scores, but I can't remember the last time anybody out there took a Ford-Hernandez-type pasting. Kolb, Kiesch, and (tiny sample size alert) Adams have been money. Viz and Burba have been up and down lately, but their downs haven't been too bad, and Bennett has really pulled himself together. Whether Wise turns out to be better than the previous members of the "looks good at AAA, maybe a starter, has to at least be a solid reliever" brigade remains to be seen. I wouldn't put Kolb in the All-Star Game at this point. He hasn't done a thing wrong, but he has only pitched 16.2 innings, and his strikeout total falls somewhere between weird and very disturbing. I predict that, if his K rate doesn't rise soon, he'll get hammered a few times. Greg.

You think maybe Kolb read where we (I forget who said it) were making fun of him for not getting a strikeout in a month? Or maybe he just has some Gagne envy goin' on. Whatever works. Greg.

So yesterday we learn Sexson needs surgery, and today we learn de la Rosa's hurt and Capuano gets hurt. The other guys in that trade better watch their backs. I have given Trent Durrington five minutes of heartfelt admiration. I'm done now. Release him already. Greg.

You have got to be freakin' kidding me. What happened to him? Greg.

Did anybody else notice that Ozzie Chavez' dazzling .323 BA in High Desert has to be the emptiest .323 since the dead ball era? Ozzie, with his utter lack of power, allergy to walks, and miserable stolen base record, posted an astonishing secondary average of .100 -- one hundred -- at HD. In contrast, Enrique Cruz may not have hit a lick at AA, but he walked a little, almost 1/3 of his few hits went for extra bases, and he had the good sense not to run much. Result: a secondary average of .257. Chavez has been the better hitter this year, but the secondary contributions combined with the big difference in offensive context between Huntsville and HD leave me unconvinced that the difference is huge. That said, I'm glad Cruz is back in A+; I think he should have been there from the beginning. He only ever reached A+ with the Mets, he only had moderate success there (.720 OPS in 2002), and last year in Milwaukee didn't exactly help his development. He needs to climb the ladder. I don't think Chavez earned a promotion to AA; I think Cruz needed to go down, and Chavez was the only logical guy to switch with Cruz. Glad to see Glenn Woolard moving up. He was solid in A ball last year, and so far he has survived the HD meat grinder. Having an A+ affiliate that didn't shred pitchers (R.I.P. Eric Henderson) would be awfully helpful, but we don't, so I like to see promising pitchers out of there as quickly as possible. I assume Parra will follow soon; I had hopes for Khalid, but I think his meat just got ground last night. He still has a great K/BB ratio, though. Forrest Martin's numbers aren't a lot worse than Woolard's, and he's older than Glenn, but he only had 30 innings of pro ball before this year, so I assume he'll stay put. Greg.

Very nice start by Durost in Beloit game 1. Could he be someone with a chance to get over the hump? He's 22 at A ball, and even with last year's bad debut at Helena (5.28 ERA, 1.62 WHIP) he did something right (2.62 K/BB). This year he's striking out more than a batter an inning, giving up less than a hit an inning, and has no unearned runs to undercut his solid 3.58 ERA His only weakness, a big one, is control (18 walks in 32.2 IP). Middling numbers, small sample, etc., but I'm just wondering if our brain trust has seen any reason to like him or to dismiss him in the past. Greg.

HTM, I have to disagree for two reasons. First, IMHO, comparisons of young junkballers to Jamie Moyer should be banned. Jamie Moyer is a rare case of success without any of the usual gifts that help pitchers break out. For every pitcher that turns out to be Jamie Moyer, 100 more are compared to Jamie Moyer and end up sucking. No good can come of it. Second, and more important, Housman ain't looking like a Jamie Moyer-type pitcher. I don't know what he's throwing, but he's getting strikeouts with it -- 45 in 40.1 innings entering action today, and I doubt that ratio got much worse in this latest game. Junkballers don't do that. Can someone please tell us what Housman is throwing this year that he wasn't throwing last year? Greg.

I'm really not saying this to rain on tonight's very cool parade o' wins, but when's the last time you saw a team win a game by a few runs with NEGATIVE secondary offensive contributions? No extra base hits, no walks, no steals, and a caught stealing to push things into the minus column. It's just odd. I'm glad to see Carlos getting some success and the love that comes with it. His secondary numbers have portended success, but the results have been uneven. Man, that Franklin trade is looking unaccountably good. Greg.

I should start a new thread for these questions, but part of the problem is that I can't. Powers That Be, please read on . . . 1. I used to access the forum and automatically be signed in. Now (for several months now) I can't sign in at all. I go to the "sign in" link, enter my username and password, and get rejected. But my username and password do allow me to make posts (obviously). I've lived with this for a while, but I decided to seek help now because . . . 2. The last 24 hours I've had a more serious problem; I can't get into the major league or minor league forum areas. I click on those links, and the little hourglass icon just shows up pretty much forever. No entry, no "unable to find page," nothing. Can anybody help me with either of these issues? Sorry to be a middle-aged luddite. Thanks. Greg.

Nice outings by Giron and Montalbo. Is anyone with insights into such things actually worried about Moss, or can we just assume he has, um, gathered some moss while injured? Corey Hart rocks; our big Ben Grieve debate could get very academic very soon. Greg.

Massbrew, I'm pretty sure we can all agree that it's way too early in both men's careers to be closing any books. Here's why I just love Ben Sheets. He's talking to JP after the game, talking about how he really doesn't try to strike people out, and he says that his walk came when he went for the K, and walking somebody after an 0-2 count "didn't make me very happy." He strikes out 18, and yes, he's into it -- but he's annoyed with himself for the walk. By the way, have you seen that list of guys with 18 or more strikeouts in a game? It's surprising how few of them were flashes in the pan. It's just one game, but you simply can't do it if you aren't pretty darn good. Also, somebody was asking about changeups; he said he threw one. Greg.

I remember early in 1986, when Roger Clemens had his 20-strikeout game. I was in college and only casually following baseball at the time, so I didn't really know who he was. It seemed like he seized the spotlight with that game and never looked back. Clemens was 24 then. Sheets, at 25, has taken a lot of heat for his so-so results the past few years, but the Brewers threw him into the majors at least a little bit ahead of schedule, without much minor league seasoning. He won't be the MVP this year, and he isn't Clemens, but I'm betting this breakout game also heralds a breakout season and a career as a legit ace. Then again, maybe not. But what a blast. Greg.

Best words I've read in a game tracker lately: "Hall walked." Greg.

Reichert, not Adams. They appear to be trying Adams seriously as a starter. That's a worthwhile experiment, but he has only had two starts at Indy. He needs more time there. I still think this team won't be near the wild card, but I love how they keep making me dout it. As it is, the simple math compels me to up my preseason projection of 72 wins to 75. Greg.

Great start for Sarfate; Gwynn's average creeps slowly but surely upward. Greg.

We should spend more time bashing Counsell around here. We scream for his benching, he becomes the only guy on the team who hits. Oh, wait, I forgot Gary Bennett -- but this won't be the last time that happens. Greg.

Adams is still pitching in the 5th? They're serious about converting him. This is interesting. Greg.

Thanks, BJK. Now, back to the merits. I don't know how good Bill Hall can be. You're sort of setting up a false choice, by assuming his only serious value would be as a starting SS and then pointing out (quite properly) that Hardy is a better player, so Hall will never be a starting SS. There's an outside chance Hall would be very good as a starting SS -- that his power would hold, his plate discipline and defense would improve in the manner that young players' abilities often do, and he would put up, say, a .780 OPS with decent defense. I'm not saying that's likely, but it's possible; it's hardly a crazy extrapolation from what he has done last year and this year in limited time, combined with his serious growth spurt in the minors last year. If he can be that good, I'd like to know it. He still wouldn't force JJ off SS, but he might factor into the 2B equation, given Spivey's lame-duckhood, Ginter's versatility, and Weeks' need for more time in the minors. Or JJ could get hurt. A likelier possibility is that Hall's future is as a utility guy. But given that he can play all three up-the-middle positions, he could be a very valuable utility guy, a 300-pa a year guy when you factor starters' injuries in. If that's his likeliest role, I don't think finding 300 pa for him this year is an unreasonable goal, and I think the place to get him the bulk of those pa is at SS, his natural position, where the Brewers are presently trotting out one of the worst players in baseball on a daily basis. On the trade bait point, I agree with you that Hall probably wouldn't bring much this year. I believe I said "in a year." If Hall performs well in, say, a 3/4 time role for the rest of this year and the first half of next, he might become attractive to other teams. Now, you're right to point out that we might not want to trade him in that scenario -- but that's trying to have it both ways. If Hall turns out to be good enough to keep around, that's great. But if we follow your strategy, we'll never know, because we'll just assume he sucks. The other piece of this equation is that Counsell is done after this year, if he sticks around that long. Thus, if we assume that (a) the Brewers this year should prioritize planning for the future over maximizing wins, because their max is about 75, and (b) Bill Hall has ANY chance to be valuable in the future, then the team should play Bill Hall. I can see how you might contest (a); I can't seriously see how you could contest (b), even if you think Hall isn't LIKELY to have MUCH value, which I can understand. Now, if the plan is to showcase Counsell for a trade right now, and then get Hall some action when Counsell leaves, I can see it. But Counsell is showcasing himself into oblivion, and I'm not sure the plan is worth the cost at this point. One more point. I like Ned Yost. I think he's a very good manager for this team at this time, and I think he makes a lot more right decisions than wrong ones. I've said that before, but in this debate I've been criticizing him. That's because Counsell is one of his wrong decisions, and we do a good manager no service by pretending he's perfect. Greg.