MJLiverock

Davis hasn't made it past the 5th inning in 4 of his 7 starts mainly because he can't consistenly throw strikes and runs up his pitch count. He may have had some bad luck in some cases with bleeders and seeing eye singles but with the way he walks guys the runs he gives up are no surprise. His ERA is also going to take a beating because of his few innings pitched as well because of his high pitch counts. Davis averages 21.3 pitches per inning the only pitcher with 500 pitches this year (davis has 700+ pithes thrown) who is worse is knuckle baller Haeger at 21.8 pitches per inning. Davis also averges only 44% of his pitches in the zone compared the leage average last year of 49%. Davis has amazingly seen his in the zone pitches decline for 6 straight years including this year. Batters are only swinging at 39.5% of his pitches vs. average of about 45%. Swinging strikes for Davis are only 4.9% compares to his normal of around 7%. His Z contact percentage or percentage of his in the zone pitches that are hit is 92.6% vs. 87.8% league averages. His O swing is 74.7%, meaning contact is made on almost 75% of his out of zone pitches vs. average being 62%. I know it is a lot of stats but it tells me he isn't fooling anyone at the plate with his stuff - - guys make contact with anything they swing at, even out of the zone stuff. The stuff they lay off must be pretty bad cause if it is close they swing and make contact and they lay off a lot of pitches. Bad control and weak pitches add up to giving up runs and may be lucky it isn't worse. But anyway I see it he isn't a good pitcher and is below average.

Fans have the luxury of only caring about what has already happened. The powers that be have to estimate who are the best players available at any given moment throughout the entire season. Sometimes the results perfectly reflect that, sometimes they sort of do and sometimes they don't at all. There is no gurantee of mean reversion, especially for players past their prime. You are right that the powers that be have to estimate what the future holds for each player but they are charged with getting it right and sometimes a player has to be dropped, demoted, cut, etc. because they just aren't a good enough option. It is a hard task but that is the job. Continual failure at talent evaluation is reason for firing, it doesn't matter how many statistical models they built or projected for a guy if they all turn out wrong. The hardest thing in stock investing is knowing when to sell. There is always some beliefe the stock will recover, the market just doesn't appreciate it, the stock used to be higher, etc and conversely, the stock has done well so it will always do well so selling high is missed. That seems to be crux of many arguements here-- the Brewers have missed a number of times on guys when they hung on players always looking for that rebound or reversion to career mean and conversely failed to sell on the guys (or in some cases bought more Hall, Turnbow deals) who were at peak and not likely to remain there. Sure hindsight is 20/20 but the fact is the results have not been good and that is the measuring stick. Nobody is going to be perfect but the cumulation of all choices made by management as reflected in the only stat that matters (wins, losses) shows the Brewers weren't very good last year, aren't very good this year and next year doesn't look a whole lot different without major changes. Not many fans are in this to see how close to statistical models a team can perform or how many WAR a player is but instead they want actual wins and losses, that is is why the game is played.

Not sure why they felt after 1 good performance he was ready to resume the role of closer again. I don't know offhand who else was available today but as I said 5 days ago, he needed to show half a dozen good outings before I would have considered him the closer again. But with 1 good outing Macha was ready to ignore 5+ bad outings to put him right back in the role. Hoffman shouldn't have to tell the manager he isn't a good option for closing but I fear that is what it would take for Macha to go into Player X is now the 9th inning guy mode.

His success this year is due to absolutely killing LH pitching to a tune of an OPS of 1.2. Against RHers he is about normal for his career, a mid .700 OPS. But as so many are fond of saying, it is a small sample thus far and I wouldn't count on his continued 1.20+ OPS against LHers.

The Brewers staff as a whole averges just under 18 pitches per inning, dead last in the NL. Part of their problem is they have issued the 2nd most BB's in the league and surprsingly are 5th in K's. Another surprise to me at least is that Parra, Suppan, and Bush are the most economical, although probably due to Bush and Suppan being near the bottom in K rate. They are the only 3 under 17/inning pitched, while 11 teams average less than 17/IP. The Cardinals and Phillies are the leaders at uner 16/IP and coincidently both average less than 3 BB's per 9 as well, leading the league.

Davis is also walking just under 5 per 9 innings and has hit 3 batters in 33 innings. Sooner or later walking the world does bite a pitcher.

No problem with this choice. The Brewers have to find out if there is any hope of counting on Parra as a starting pitcher. They have guys in AAA that can fill bullpen roles. They aren't going to have Suppan to compete with any more, Bush may or may not be around next year, Davis will most likely be gone. With Gallardo and Wolf the only real locks for the rotation next year, the Brewers need to know what they have in Parra and his highest value would be as a starter. The Brewers are not a playoff contender this year and won't be next year either unless guys like Parra realize their full potential.

So what your saying is you can't be convinced of anything like calling this pitching staff putrid without 3 years of results to draw from? Seems a little too patient or looking for way too much data before making a decison. What does a Suppan's results of 3 years ago really mean to how he will perform now that he is 3 years older and 3 mph or more slower. Same with Davis, Hoffman, Hawkins, etc. all guys who are expected to regress at their age and there is no gurantee of linear smooth fade away. I would hope management and scouting are not waiting for 3 year samples before making every decision that leads to waiting way too long on bad players and missing out on good players. I seem to recall having a similar discussion with you last year around April because the Brewer staff looked awful in April. I agreed with your premise that pitchers can struggle in April but disgreed that it shouldn't be alarming for the Brewers at the time. If all pitchers are struggling, then it stands to reason if you are still at the bottom of the heap that there is more than just early season rustiness. Turns out the staff was awful last year. The team had a 4.83 ERA last year, given the way the bullpen is being tasked with 3+innings every game this year I wouldn't call a plus 5.00 ERA for the season out of the question.

It's not about the last 10 games, it is more about the season last season next season etc.

Bush and Suppan don't have what anyone would call a live arm either and neither came up in the Brewer system, not to mention Bush's control has gotten worse over the years since he became a Brewer. The reason I mentioned guys like Turnbow and McClung is that they are just part of the long list. As I said throwing enough guys against the wall I would think it would stick with one guy, somewhere, a light or a development would happen, but no, none. I don't think any of the guys mentioned can just throw strikes, they wouldn't walk so many if that was the case. Or at least I would hope they wouldn't be afraid of throwing a strike with their velocity. Locate, locate, locate is fine, it is very important but the fist and primary location to be able to hit is the strike zone, then worry about in, out, up, down. It won't matter and hasn' t mattered for many of these guys. Is Para just JDLR part 2? Great velocity, can K guys, but just can't consistently hit the zone? Balfour, the Brewers may have given up early on, he has been able to keep the BB's down in Tampa. If you can't blame the staff and development system for the inability to develp a pitcher that can throw strikes and break a plane of glass who can be blamed? I can't chalk every problem and miscue up to just bad luck, nor did I even mention all the injury plagued guys aside from Rogers. If there wasn't something to the organizational teaching why have other teams like the Cardinals had success with reclamation guys or even just brining guys up who can avoid walking everyone in sight? As Nate82 said if I could teach someone to throw strikes I would have a job for life, but isnt' the opposite true as well? If you can't teach anyone to throw strikes shouldn't you lose your job? Somewhere along the way the inability to get much of anything from any pitcher brought into the system has to be reckoned with.

twobrewers hit a point that wanders around my head as well. Why does it seem so difficult for the Brewers to develp a pitcher than can throw strikes? Is there some organizational problem with personel or philosophy that is behind it? They have drafted some power arms in recent years, even taken some fliers on some waiver type guys but none have really developed much control. All the way back to JDLR there have been guys with stuff but none have developed any command of it. Turnbow, McClung, Balfour, Parra, Fredrickson, Rogers, Jeffress, just off the top of my head. I am sure there are others that some of the guys who follow the minors more closely could come up with. Throwing enough against the wall you would think something would stick but they haven't really had a one that developed that control, hence they are always listed as potential and live arms, etc. Some of the guys are still young but there hasn't been a lot of progress. Makes me leary of the next set of guys like Arnett, Heckathorn, Odorizzi being groomed, walks are their bane as well, even though Arnett and Heckathorn played college ball.

While I can see the hope in thinking he just needs to figure something out, I mean the guy has been doing it forever but at some point he is going to be completely done, it won't matter what he did last year or in his career when that moment arrives. Is this the moment? None of us know for sure but I don't want to see him closing out close games in the ninth until he can prove he can still get guys out consistently by having a half dozen or more good outings in the 6th or 7th or in blowouts. It isn't like there aren't plenty of opportunities to come in during the 6th and pitch with guys on base or not given the length of the starter's outings. So while his career allows for some leeway or benefit of the doubt it doesn't have to come with games on the line and no hope of recovery by pitching the 9th. Each additional year at this point is a remarkable achievement but also makes me believe he is that much closer to falling off the cliff so he could very well go from being effective to done in one season. He certainly wouldn't be the first athlete to suddenly age quickly at the end of a long career, especially at age 42.

Stuck in Neutral is good description of where I think the team is at... not really going for it all, but not really admitting it and rebuilding. Rluzinski is right that the team isn't going to make the playoffs every year with the payroll limitations they have. But if a good enough core can be built then making the playoffs could occur in back to back years before players get sold off or the limited window of greatness closes for a few satellite players, i.e. free agents and such. If the goal is the playoffs once every five years which is pretty realistic then there will most likely have to be a bad year in there somewhere as the team reloads/rebuilds. I just don't know if the Brewers are willing to trade a year or two of 75 win seasons for the potential at some 90+ win seasons, hence the stuck in neutral agreement. Melvin seems like a guy who will just keep plugging in short term stop gap measures like signing aging pitchers on their last legs. Also looking at that 5 year cycle, would put the Brewers on playoff pace again in 2013. I don't think 2010 is playoff year, nor 2011 unless something major changes with the rotation. The "wave" of pitching talent for the Brewers is in low A to A ball right now meaning they won't be throwing 200 innings in the majors until right at that 2013 season if even then. It is possible to have some guys like Rogers, Jeffress make it before then and hopefully they will. If the Brewers trade Fielder for some pitching it may help but the offense will suffer some but it has some room to play with but again will the Brewers and fans have the patience to suffer through a 75 win season with some young guys playing and admit going into a year they aren't a contender in say 2011 or 2012?

Looper is what makes me think of replacement level pitching, since it is such a nebulous concept. Awful stats not much upside and not protected by the small sample excuse. Notice he wasn't signed by anyone this offseason, meaning not one team thought, "hmm, he can produce better than just any old guy I bring up from AAA." Of course the Cubs were rumored to be looking at him a couple weeks ago but still nothing for him. Davis could very well be that guy before the year is out. The string of luck may run out leaving him with awful stats, no upside, and no more excuses. A guy can't keep walking 100 batters a year with low K totals and not expect to give up runs while burning the bullpen constantly with 6 inning max starts.

Pete you will never convince some that Doug Davis is simply not a very good pitcher. Everytime he gives up runs it is the defense or bad luck, there are a litany of excuses for every game he starts. If anything his luck has been too good given the turnstile of runners he allows or hard hit balls he gives up nor his uncanny ability to lull everyone in the stands and on the field to sleep while making sure to turn the game over to the bullpen shortly after the 6th innings starts, usually with guys on base. Not to pick on you endaround but there are typically plent of posts saying not a bad game for Davis after a 5.3 inning 5 walk 4 hit 110 pitch effort that is all to common for him.

I have also heard it is due to the bacteria that grows in the tap lines. I don't have any idea if it is true but having bartended in college and having friends who own bars I can vouch that those tap lines can get down right nasty and that many bars do not clean them properly or as often as they should. I do believe the dirty tap lines has a major negative effect on the taste.

I heard Byrnes on one of the overnight ESPN radio shows and he gave a great interview. He basically said that he messed up on the bunt but that wasn't why he was released and that stories of some blow up were exaggerations. He said he was upset at himself for missing the bunt and that he was sorry for blowing off the Seattle media. He said he often rides his bike home so there was nothing unusual about him carrying it through the clubhouse. He went on to say has has nothing but respect for Jack Z and really liked him in the short time he played for him, thanked him for giving him a shot after all the injuries and missed games. He said he was released for going 3-30 or something to start the season, it is business and he understood. He said he left the team on good terms and again thanked Jack Z and the manager whose name escapes me right now. He was nothing but class in the interview. The part I really liked was hearing him talk about playing beer league softball now. He said he was golfing with some old friends after his release and they brought up playing for a local S.F. bar they hung out in, including Byrnes in years past. Byrnes went on about how much he loves playing the game, even if it is just softball and not the majors. They won their first game 14-13 and went out for beers afterwards. He said the rolling, divet filled ground in the outfiled made him think his knees would give out anytime but he had a great time. The show host said the rumor was that he had a spectacular diving catch but that he couldn't believe no one had it on a camera phone or video to put on Youtube. Bynes acknowledged he had a great catch and said he was glad it wasn't captured on film, he didn't do it to get noticed, he just plays the game hard even in softball. Byrnes was asked about his take on the tasered fan in Philly since he was the player who once tackled a fan. He said he would tackle the guy again even though he got in trouble with MLB for doing it . He said he would have felt awful if he just stood there and watched a guy run by who then went on to hurt a teammate. He is probaly the only guy to play for the Oakland A's in the last 10 years or more that I have actually liked.

I'm not saying it is impossible for Gamel to do that but I have my doubts about a consistent ability to do that because he struggled after being sent back down and now is going to miss a significant part of this year. If he struggles again in the second half of the year it will be chalked up to recovering from the injury which may be a legit reason but he will be another year older and another year removed from his AA success. I am just tempering my view and trying not to get too overly optimistic. Lawrie has had all sorts of praise for his bat but the actual numbers aren't stellar. He may improve and reach a high ceiling potential that he was drafted for but to this point he isn't going through the minors like a Braun, Weeks, Fielder which makes me think at this point his upside isn't as high as them. He is young, didn't play college ball, so he has the chance but until he dominates a level I am not ready to call him a potential star in the making. Yes, all teams have average players, even the Yankees but they also have superstar elite players as do the Rays, Red Sox, Twins, Dodgers, Cardinals, Phillies, the teams that are regular playoff contenders. My point about having too many average guys is a team of all average players probably ends up with a low 80's win total and doesn't make the post season unless they catch a lot of luck in one season. The Brewers are on the cusp of losing 1 of their elite hitters in Fielder, leaving Braun as the only elite hitter on the team and with Yo being the only starting pitcher with much of a chance of being at that elite level in the next 3 or 4 years that doesn't bode well for playoff chances. Maybe Weeks can step up on the hitting side but with the pitching expeced to be weak for a few years the hitting really has to be above average.

A .760 OPS is well below average for a 1B which is where he is mentioned as a future replacement for Prince. Even if he can get to .800 for an OPS that is still below average. And again, average is just that, average, middle of the pack, nothing special. I used the Overbay comparison since in my view that may be his upside, a lot of doubles, decent OBP, not overwhelming power. Overbay was a .900 OPS player in the minors as well but in the major is around that average to slightly below average leve. If Lawrie gets shifted to OF, Gamel will most likely go toward 1B, espcially if Prince is gone. With McGehee at 3B, and Braun in LF 1B seems to be Gamel's best shot. I don't think they'll move Braun back to the IF in order to put Gamel in his OF spot. The upside is that if they lose Prince, and can keep Weeks, McGehee keeps hitting, they will only need to fill in a few spots in the field over the next 4 or so years - - 1B, RF, C. Although no one can expect a player to match Prince's production, C can easily improve and RF can be a wash or better. They probably need one of the guys just drafted or in the next draft to develop into an impact type hitter to be ready in 2015 or so when Braun may be looking elsewhere. That is also to say that CF and SS pan out as is with Escobar and some combination of Gomez/Cain/Schafer.

What you're seeing a strength - - depth, others are seeing as a weakness meaning nothing special in terms of talent, just guys to fill out the ML roster. Your line about a deep group of players that project to average MLB talent is my main problem. Average talent begets average production and average records. Having 3 or 4 guys project to be average middle infielders or 4-5 guys project to be average OF's doesn't get a team too far. Only a few will be able to play in the majors and the rest aren't going to bring back much in trade because they are, well, average. To me a high C prospect wouldn't even be a prospect really, just a guy who may see the majors as journeyman back up if at all. There seems to be a definite lack of impact players in the minors right now for the Brewers. Hopefully a few of the pitchers like Odorrizzi can put up some good numbers and start to look like an above average major leaguer. Jeffress has that high ceiling ability that hopefuly can be developed. Since the pitching takes time, there may be some hope there for impactful players to emerge. The team needs to develop a front line starter to go with Yo, not more 4 or 5 slot guys. Man, how I cringe everytime someone excuses Bush, Davis, Parra, Narveson, Suppan as being average for a 4 or 5 starter because that is 3 or 4 too many guys being the 4 or 5 level starter. I agree it isn't the worst thing in the world to have a number of guys to look to for someone to emerge from, if LuCroy can keep up his hitting it will be nice to have major league catcher who can actually get on base and hit a double once in a while (Zaun's last night aside). Gamel's lost some of his shine since last year, if his upside is Lyle Overbay he is decent but not a great player. Lawrie is a man without a position for now it seems, he may be destined for the OF but will his bat play in a corner spot? That seems to be my question, will Gamel/Lawrie hit enough to be average for a 1B and corner OF'er? These are the two biggest bats in the minors and may end up being below average in the majors for their eventual positions.

They leave out that Lee was traded. At the time of the trade it may not have look very good to trade Cruz but he was somewhat redundant. With Lee gone, Cruz wasn't redundant, especially looking at the aging Jenkins. But besides that the main reason for my post is the citing of BA as justification or excuse for Melvin's deals that went against him. Melvin has to be better than BA at scouting and making deals. BA's opininon is interesting, they know more than I do about most players but they aren't the GM of the Brewers or any team, in the end I don't care what they would do or grade a draft or player. They are like Mel Kiper with this stuff, great at talking about players but in the end not charged with being right or paid to run a team. I get paid to pick stocks for people, it is interesting to me that Goldman or Merrill have a buy rating or sell rating but they don't make my decsions for me. I can't tell a client,"Sure that stock bombed but Goldman had a buy rating and said it was worth 2x where it is now." I get paid to be right and if I'm wrong too much and the performance is bad I get fired. That is how I view the GM of a sports team, they get paid to be right about players, not just follow the pack all the time or read someone third party's opinion and go along with it. The measuring stick is the wins/losses/playoffs of the team not that well all these deals built a bad team but at the time they looked good so it doesn't matter that they didn't work. If the team is bad it is because of bad decisions, being wrong about players, and spending money poorly. Looking at the Sexson deal and thinking it over last night it struck me as a great example of the criticism that Melvin now faces. The team was awful he traded a relatively big name younger power hitting 1b for a basket of players. These players, were sorely needed to fill a talentless void on the team, almost anything would be better than what they had. The players were, however, relatively void of upside and were pretty low risk. Overbay, was not expected to be a great 1B, didn't have enough power, but was a decent hitter who would be OK, Counsell, Spivey, were veteran players who again, weren't going wow anyone but wouldn't be terrible. Moeller was backup catcher. Cappy was a soft tossing lefty who was coming back from TJ surgery. The one guy who may have been a player viewed as having upside was JDLR but there were questions about him just because two teams had already been willing to trade him away that quickly. I believe when a young highly rated projectable player starts getting bounced around that teams are finding questions about his toolsy love received, a la Lastings Milledge, Carlos Gomez, sort of playing into why I don't just fall into the BA loves the guy even though 2 or 3 teams had no problem flipping him to someone else once they got a close look. All that being said, I don't think the Sexson deal was bad, it was needed at the time by a woeful team that could use improvement anywhere off the bottom. But it was a fairly low risk deal, a huge basket of players including some vets and a guys that could be servicable. Melvin is good at finding servicable, but can he find true undervalued players in a trade with upside? I know I wouldnt' be happy if he traded Prince today for a couple slap hitting middle infielders, a back up catcher, an injury recovering minor league soft tosser, and a 1B who projects to be serviceable at best.

The frustration is starting to build for the lack of progess this team has shown over the last couple years. It seems to me that the Melvin supporters want to point to no horrendous mistakes and provide excuses for why this guy or that guy didn't pan out as expected. Or that the relatively minor trades he has done have been successful. TheCrew07 hit a point I agree with in an early post, Melvin likes high floor guys, i.e. low risk of complete failure, but also low risk of major upside. Part of Melvin's job is to be a talent evaluator. For a small market team like the Brewers to succeed the talent evaluating has to be better than average, much better, because mistakes are so costly and hard to recover from. It doesn't matter what Baseball America rates a guy, or what the consensus is on a prospect Melvin could trade for or did trade for and have it declared a success because some third party rates it equal. Melvin is paid to be better than a magazine or consensus opinion. Trading a guy while his value his high because he thinks it can go no higher or the guy is overrated is something a Brewer GM is going to have to do. I fully agree that it is very difficult but that is the job of running team. For a number of years people would joke that it was a risk taking on a Braves prospect because so many highly rated guys flamed out after they traded them and guys that seemed relatively ho hum blossomed for them. That tells me they knew their players better than a scouting service or magazine and better than other teams. Melvin has been sort of a "pick a guy off the scrap heap for nothing" but some cash GM, and a few have turned out well. He hasn't been as successful trading a supposed prospect for someone else's prospect, or a vet for a prospect. The Franklin for Villanueva deal turned out pretty well. I also think the Inman/Thatcher deal for Linebrink was fine. Thatcher is a LOOGY who wouldn't bring much to the team with Stetter, Braddock, Parra, Narveson all hanging around from the left side and Inman may well have been an overvalued pitcher who doesn't end up doing much. The Brewers also haven't had much success with later round draft picks either. Corey Hart is the about the only non first or second round guy that jumps out off the top of my head in AAA or the MLB and he was taken a number of years ago. The Brewers need a late rounder to blossom from out of nowhere. There may be some guys in AA or lower, but there have also been a few recent supplemental picks who have had virtually zero succes, Dykstra and Fredrickson (iirc, wild lefty I sometimes confuse with another low level pitcher) Evaluating talent better than 90% of the teams is hard but as a small market team they need to in order to be a real contender. I can't keep making excuses for the team hovering at the .500 level by saying this guy or that guy didn't pan out as expected, at some point the focus will fall to Melvin for not being right on guys, it is a major part of his job to right.

FVBrewerfan and Rluz both kinda hit on my beliefs as well. I just wonder if the Brewers have the "guts" to step away from the baseball thinking that you have to have an 8th inning guy and a 9th inning guy, etc. If a guy just set down the side in order on a dozen pitches why does he have to come out? He is throwing strikes and already warm, leave him in unless the obvious lefty/right switch needs to made. And if they have the "guts" to just pull Hoffman from closer role and use him in mop up until he can show he commands his FB and Change as well as just DFAing Suppan, bring Stetter up and see if Parra can start. The team needs to figure out if Parra is any sort of answer going forward. The idea they have to have a bullpen of veteran guys who may be less talented with less upside than guys in AAA is a contributing factor the $$'s spent on the bullpen. This is one area the team could have saved money to spend on the rotation where they had no AAA talent ready to fill in.

C'mon, TLB, that sounds a bit condescending. If it really was that easy why even have a guy doing it full time? There is nothing wrong with criticizing Melvin, a fan shouldn't have to come up with a 10 mintue presentation with bullet points on exact fixes in order to be allowed to be critical of the managment of the team. If there were no improvements to be made the team wouldn't languish around .500. In addition to the deals done by Melvin, no one knows what deals he hasn't done that were offered or that he could have proposed either. In the end the results on the field are the measuring stick. I have said it a number of times, I dont' think Melvin the worst GM by any means but if the team is plateaued as an 80 win team I would not be satisfied with those results. He can't keep scraping together low risk moves to flounder at this level, letting the cheap years of studs to fritter away. At some point I think the team would be better off accepting they aren't a playoff caliber team as constructed and take the lumps of rebuiding so that when this supposed young wave of pitching hits the majors they can make a better run of it than they did with the last wave of cheap talent. One playoff appearance and a bunch of mediocre years for the wave of Fielder, Braun, Hardy, Hart, Gallardo, Parra, etc. is pretty disappointing. Even that one year took a historic performance by CC and a bit of a Mets collapse to happen. But for people to get into the "you can't criticize Melvin" unless you know exactly which players and which deals can be made seems to much in the vein of sycophant to Melvin. Change isn't always a fix but it isn't always bad either. Or a famous quote comes to mind, "If you do what you've always done, you'll get what you've always gotten."

Are those this year's ranks or last year's? If it is this year it would stand to reason that all of these teams have inflated their offense (except for Pittsburgh) by feasting on bad Brewer pitching, epecially the Cubs who have 6 games vs. the Brewers.