MJLiverock

You don't find it a bit odd and arbitrary that these "safe" numbers are such even number of 100 /200 and 20? Sounds completely made up or severely rounded which means to me that 110 120 aren't much different than 100. If 20 IP per season was so reliable why do pitchers still get hurt following that regimine? Why do relievers like Dave Riske get hurt when they have never thrown near a 100 pitches in a game and have been in the majors for years? Why does pitch selection and mechanics not matter? Heck, why did I nearly tear my elbow tendon in High School having never pitched an inning in a game? Why can some guys be labeled as a rubber arm? If some guys can be in the tail of the curve and be freaks isn't it logical that some guys are going to get hurt no matter what they do? Or better yet, maybe each arm as a set amount of pitches it can throw before it gives out be it 10,000 or 20,000 for some guys. I am not advocating making a guy throw till his arm hurts or he can't lift it, I just don't find any concrete provable evidence that 100 pitches is a magic number for every guy in every situation.

Did Macha give up the double to Dunn? Did he give up the gopher ball to Willingham after that? What about Zimmerman's bomb? Seems to me that Stetter and DiFelice weren't helping things either and bringing them in for Suppan didn't solve anything so I can't split the blame like that and put it on Macha.

The assumption you make is that had they pitched less that one year they wouldn't have gotten hurt. There is no way of knowinig that Wood and Prior wouldn't have had the same arm problems anyway even with 20 less pitches per outing or whatever. There are genetics, body construction, mechanics, type of pitches thrown, build up of 15+ years of pitching, etc. in other words a whole host of variables that contribute to a pitcher getting hurt beyond just pitch counts and assuming that throwing 10 or 20 less pitches occasionally will eliminate those problems. Of course young pitchers get hurt more, they are then weeded out of the population of guys who become old pitchers, sort of a self fulfiling prophecy. Young pitcher also probably have bad mechanics, or haven't had their mechanics fixed/tweeked until an injury occurs. They have been abused all through HS or college, making them an injury waiting to happen as micro tears in tendons build and are ready to give on pitch 1 or 50 of an outing. Maybe they have been breaking off nasty curve balls and sliders since they were 13 it all adds up and declaring that 100 pitches is the number for everyone at the ML level is just not provable.

The problem with Hall was there was no position for him if the team planned on the Braun, Hardy, Weeks, infield. He was the one extra piece who may have had value in a trade to improve the pitching situation rather than lock up to keep around.

I don't understand how anyone can be shocked at how bad this rotation is. Suppan has never been great and is getting older, he may not be a 20 ERA pitcher but over 5 or 6 isn't out of the realm of reality. Players don't decline in a linear fashion, some fall off a cliff, some slowly disapper into the night. Gallardo and Parra are both early in big league careers so struggles should be expected, the continued excuse train for Parra does get old. He has had success in the minor and for stretches in the ML but is not a guaranteed future top of the rotation guy. Everytime he has a bad outing the "potential" train fires up and the reality of "disappointment" is pushed aside. Bush is hurt but has never acheived what many hopeful predictions had for him after his 2006 season. He is a decent 3/4 type pitcher with a mid 4 ERA, when healthy. Looper isn't much of a K guy, gives up a lot of hits, and is a another back of the roation guy as well who like Suppan, Parra, and Bush doesn't go much more than 6 innings resulting in a taxed bullpen. After that the talent level really drops off. The point has been made that who else do you bring in for some of these guys and that just furthers the proof of how bad the pitching situation is the guys in AAA are even worse options. The staff was built of guys who have a ceiling of average. An earlier post by TLB responded to a question of what to be hopeful for next year and ticked off all the young hitters. I agree there are some exciting young hitters but it continues to point out the pitching is terrible. There weren't any young stud pitchers to look for and unless Melvin trades some hitters next year will be a repeat of this year, decent offense, terrible pitching and a mediocre record. Last night was a microcosm of this problem. The offense scored 6 runs and got blown out, sure it happens sometimes, but with this staff it will be more often than one would like.

If you buy a stock thats trading at $50 for $100 you overpaid no matter if that stock soard up to $125 or crashes to $12 in 3 years. So you're saying fangraphs knows with certainty what each player is worth in the future and exactly how that transfers into wins? That seems pretty far fetched. And in your example if you flip the stock at $125 you didn't over pay, a stock's value is whatever the market will bear so claiming it is worth $50 while the market price is $100 is just what your model predicts. That is why everyone didn't buy Microsoft in the 1980's they felt it was overpriced then because their model or way of thinking about it told them so.

As I said earlier, I am not for firing him yet, he has helped turn a franchise that was horrible into a respectable, .500 type team. I want to see the franchise taken higher and picking thru the detritus of other team's scaps is not what will take it there. I don't want to get caught just hanging around .500 and being satisfied with that. Melvin's M.O. is always about value and I get the impression sometimes from posts here that people think there is some sort of satisfaction in wins/$ spent vs. just wins. Sure grabbing a guy from the scrap heap, turning him into a 4th starter is great "value" the problem is that only helps if it is filling in the final pieces of a well rounded team, or when you are building a team that was awful and just trying to make them competitive. Grabbing guys from scrap heaps and trying to make them your #2 or important everyday hitters just leads to mediocrity. Its the old if you're not getting better, you are getting worse. Doug built the team from the depths but is the right guy to take it to the top vs. getting it to a .500 type team. As backupcatcher pointed out in my own earlier post, the Brewer rode aces to the playoffs because that is what aces do for teams. The Brewers went into this year without that luxury so anything more than a game or two above .500 in my eyes was too optimistic. Next year they are likely in the same boat, Gallardo will have a full year under his belt and can maybe one of those guys, but the staff will still be full of questions after that top spot in the rotation all the way to the back of the pen.

Last year's staff had the 3rd lowest ERA in the league. The 2005 team had the 5th lowest. Until Bush took one off the elbow and Parra imploded this year's staff led the majors in % of quality starts and was top 5 in lowest ERA, iirc. Melvin has brought in several highly touted young pitchers-De la Rosa, Capellan, ZachJack(a 1st rounder), Capuano, Bush ( 2nd rounder). Even took a flyer on former high pick Matt Ford. It seems those who would fire Doug enjoy the simplicity of hindsight through anecdotes of failure, while dismissing organizational success as the product of others' labors. Last year took an incredible run in the second half by CC and a great 1st half by Sheets. De La Rosa was one piece in a big trade and had been traded for the second time in a short period, Cappellan was had for a retread reliever so I am not sure how highly touted these guys were anymore and frankly none were very good as a Brewer so I can't give credit for acquiring bad players no matter what the GM thought of them. It sort of like when people say Ted Thompson drafted X number of future starters so he must be good at the draft, if that measuring stick were meaningful then Matt Millen was a good GM because he drafted a lot of starters too, they just happened to go 0-16. The Overbay for Gross/Bush/ZJack worked fairly well. Bush is a decent 3/4 ML pitcher, ZJack is another prospect who was sinking in his former organization and was expendable by the Blue Jays and not surprisingly didn't pan out. Capuano was coming off TJ surgery and had lost some shine and turned out to be a pretty decent pitcher for a couple years until TJ hit again. I still wouldn't call getting any of these guys as getting a potential future ace and I doubt anyone thought of them that way at the time either. Melvin likes to pick around scrap heaps and get value by grabbing guys cheap who have upside but usually very limited upside that is how a pitching staff of 4/5 type talent is built and what the team has including the bullpen. That is also why they are among the worst in the league and many thought that is where they would end up despite a decent start to the season which many thought unsustainable. The results from this staff really aren't surprising, the number one knock on the Brewers in the preseason was the pitching staff. The organizational success is basically turning a terrible franchise into a .500 type ball club who was able to back into the playoffs last year by riding 325 innings of elite pitching from Sheets and Sabathia to take advantage of a total collapse by the Mets. I am glad they made the Sabathia trade, the playoffs were great but I dont' want to wait another 26 years even if the team is always on the cusp but just outside. The Brewers are probably a .500 club still who may finish in the 2-4 in a division race for the next couple years and not be horrible but to take it to the level of competing for championships they have to impove the pitchinig situation.

I agree its not magic but substitute some of those names with other similar players if you are thinking 2 and 3 moves ahead. This is my criticism of Melvin, his move seem predicated on filling whatever immediate hole he sees rather than looking out longer term or making moves to address multiple needs or willingness to reduce one area if he can improve other areas by a greater degree. I think this what makes the true genius GM and why I don't think Melvin is there or is a top 5 GM as some have said. He is OK, probably middle of the pack, no atrocious mistakes like trading a Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano but nothing really spectacular either. I'll give him some credit with the draft of hitters but Jack Z also gets some and both also share the blame of horrible pitching talent in the upper levels.

it was just lucky BABIP against him

Melvin was the GM you take the lumps with the praise so I include him with Jack Z in the pitching problems. But now without Jack Z what is Melvin & Co. going to do with their picks - - not saying they will fail just that w/ Jack Z. they had a lot of success in drafting hitters. I dont' think Cameron was a bad contract, it has basically been year to year filling a position where there hasn't been anyone in the organization with the ability to do it consistently. It is a good use of money that is available from cheap younger players at other positions. Which is why the Hall signing is so bad - - they had cheap options with loads of talent that were expected to be good at Hall's positions - - no need to lock him up after a surprisingly good season. He was still under team control and could have been traded to help a glaring weakness elsewhere like CF, C, Pitching rather than try to change his position or hope he wasn't a flash in the pan. The Hall situation also lead to the driving out of Branyan when the team needed a LH bat in the lineup besides Prince. The trading of Cruz for Nix wasn't horrible, two former top prospects who hadn't made it yet. But as you said Nix is now a decent bench player for the Reds while the Brewers scrambled around looking for a 4th outfielder and LH'd bats for the bench which Nix could have been. Gwynn may not be a superstar but he can play CF which if Cam leaves is going to open a hole. I thought Gerut was a nice additon, he has proven some success at the ML level and Gwynn wasn' t a high price but Gerut never plays so I can't be sure one way or the other on him. If Melvin cuts and runs on Gerut like Cruz, like Nix, like Nelson, it was just a wasted trade of a trade piece. The Yost situation was confusing to say the least but Attanasio had to finally step in and force the move, otherwise he would probably still be here. I think this plays into the lack of creativity or plan argument, he doesn't seem to want to rock the boat much and is content with picking up the scraps of other teams to try an plug leaks in the ship. He scours the bottom and picks up a ton of guys, some of whom pan out, some don't. Nothing wrong with that but it is pretty hard to build a championsip team that way, especially when the pitching staff is made up of those types of players. Filling in a few spots of the 12 or 13 pitchers is fine, but when most of the staff and AAA is filled that way... well we are reaping those results now with one of the worst pitching staffs in the NL.

That song starts out OK then morphs into the Helen Keller thing and just becomes dumb and bad, its like they mashed two songs together.

I think my line of thought on locking up Hall had to do with knowing that Hardy, Braun, and Weeks were expected to man SS, 3B, and 2B so why lock up a guy with no position, who despite having a good year and a half really wasn't touted as much of a can't miss guy, unless of course Melvin thought he could lock him up and trade him but that doesn't seem to be his M.O. nor did we hear much about trading Hall for pitching while he was hot. This is a great example of trying to deal from a strength to improve the team, Hall probably had some value to someone coming off that season and playing SS (he had enough to Melvin to lock him up), the team had Hardy waitiing, and Escobar would have been in the low A or rookie ball system around then as well. They may have actually been able to get a decent starting pitching prospect for him then. It wasn't like the Brewers have been awash in pitching depth at any time and frankly a team can never have too much pitching because trading away pitching is easy in comparison to aquiring it. Trading a spare ML SS for a couple AA pitchers may have been a much better route. I am not saying he should be fired over it, but as some have said the lack of foresight or imagination in trying to improve the team for more than just quick fillers seems to be hurting the team by getting them in binds. He had Cruz, traded for Nix, then scrambled to find a 4th OFer. Traded Gwynn for a guy who never gets to play to see if he can be a solution (not necessarily his fault but at some point he has to want to see if Gerut can still play). Branyan was on the team but run off because Bill Hall was still around and the team has constantly searched for LH power for the bench or everyday lineup. It looks as though there is lack of a bigger plan sometimes and the team is reacting to whatever brush fire pops up.

burniebrewer is right, the Shell station on M and 113, near Skipper Buds has good gyros. Atlantis Taverna in Sun Prairie has good greek food as well if you are on the far east side. As others have said, remove the seeds from the cucumbers. If you can't find greek yogurt use regular plain yogurt but lay it in a paper towel lined collander for a half hour or so to drain off some of the water. The yogurt can be sort of rolled off the paper towel fairly easily and the texture is much firmer this way.

Robin both Prince and Braun were expected to do have great seasons because they have been great players at every level of baseball. Bill Hall came out of nowhere and put up better numbers than he was ever expected to and much better than he ever had. I don't think anyone should be shocked that he fell back to earth just as I would be surprised if Braun suddenly started hitting .210 with no power for a couple seasons.

The problem with the Hall signing at the time was why the rush. The team had Hardy Weeks and Braun for the left side of the infield at a cheap rate. Hall was coming off a year in which he did better than anything he had ever shown at any level before and was still under team control. Why rush to lock him up knowing he had to either change positions to the OF or may have just had a career year? The scounting department had to know he has a big hole in his swing. Why the rush to sign vs. trade while the value was high if he was perceived as a good SS. They knew they had Hardy Weeks and Braun. When Suppan was signed there wasn't much on the market but running out to get a mediocre pitcher at Ben Sheet's salary for those years was a bad move. Pitchers of that talent level become available for much less, just ask the Cardinals and their pick up sticks version of a staff. Melvin wanted Nix from Texas so Cruz had to be included or vice versa but then Nix was barely used and then dumped by Milwaukee who then went looking for a LH hitting outfielder for the bench. The Gwynn for Gerut looked like a decent move but could come back to bite them if the team is looking for a CF next year if Cam is gone and Gerut is dumped similarly to Nix. Melvin has to have some say with Macha about playing time to at least see if Gerut has any value or the team will be forced to pay a lot for Cam or seek a stop gap CFer until Cain proves he's ready. The dearth of pitching in the system is handcuffing the team but there doesn't seem to be any urgency over the past few years to really address it beyond stop gap solutions which tend to cost more money than their worth. The team has hitters and knows that ML pitching is hard to come by so one criticism should have been trying to get some talented minor leaguers a few years ago that would be on the cusp of or in the ML now. Sure its hindsight but the team knew its weaknesses and strengths. ML pitching talent is always expnesive and making mistakes on mediocre ML pitchers is really expensive on multi year deals. A team needs difference makers not just all average guys. Difference makers are what put a team over the top and right now the Brewers staff has about 3/4's of one in Gallardo. He may well be one someday but at this point being as young as he is and still trying to get strong enough to pitch 200 innings in a year he isn't there yet. Stetter's a good LOOGY+ but those guys are a dime a dozen, Hoffman is still very good but I dont' think he is a lockdown closer anymore.

I didn't have high hopes for the Brewer pitching staff to begin with so I am not surprised by the record at this point. I just don't want to see more stop gap solutions brought in for the pitching staff and given the asking price this year I think that is all Doug is going to be able to bring in. I am extremely disappointed in the lack of ability to develop any reliable starting pitching outside of Gallardo over the last 5 -7 years. The Brewers need to conserve their trade chips for a guy with a good chance at upside who can be under team control for a couple years at least. I don't want to trade for more pitchers relying on smoke/mirrors/duct tape to hold their numbers down or guys who guys coming off career years/half seasons who we pray can keep it up. Guys like that are fine for 4th or 5th starters but running a rotation filled with them isn't going to work in the long run. I guess that takes me out of the liking any trades for Doug Davis, Jarrod Washburn, or whatnot unless the asking price is basically nothing. That may mean just riding out this season and working a big trade in the offseason but I am fine with that. The pitching staff needs an overhaul. The Brewer staff ranks 14th in ERA (out of 16 NL teams), 16th in HR allowed, 15th in SLG against, 13th in OBP against, 14th in WHIP, 12th in K/BB ratio.

I'd say one guy has been mediocre in fulltime play and one has so few AB we don't know anything about them. Given the playtime issues here their career numbers are almost certainly better indicators than this small random sample of PA. I don't know that I'd call Gwynn's results mediocre, that OPS is better than Corey Hart's so far this year. Gwynn is what many thought he would be, a guy who gets on base at a decent clip, plays good defense, and has little power. I'm not going to worry about losing him unless the Brewers can't find a CF next year if Cam is gone. Gerut never plays so I wouldn't even compare Gwynn and Gerut yet because of that small sample. As someone else said Braun is 4/40 as well and I don't think anyone wants to cut him.

What will you do when your ARM readjusts higher next year and the 30 year is at 6%?

I keep seeing posts talking about the ease of the Brewer schedule post All star game and thought I'd look at it since the Cubs and Cards likely play a similar schedule. The remaining Brewers opponents have a .475 winning percentage, the Cards opponents a .488, and the Cubs a .483, so not much difference there. The main differences are vs. Washington, Brewers have 8, Cubs 7, STL 4 San Diego, Brewers have 6, Cubs 3, STL 7 Dodgers, Brewers have 3, Cubs 4, STL 7 San Fran, Brewers have 3, Cubs 3, STL 0 Philly, Brewers have 4, Cubs 3, STL 6 Pittsburgh Brewers have 9, Cubs 9, STL 6 Mets Brewers have 0, Cubs 6, STL 2 Florida Brewers have 0, Cubs 3, STL 3 The Brewers play the Cubs 7 times, and the Cards 9 times. The Cards/Cubs play each other only 3x.

I hadn't thought of it but yeah they should just assign a DH spot for the pitcher, nobody wants to see the hit and are most likely going to be pinch hit for anyway. I don't have a problem with awarding home field advantage as a result of the game, the other deciding ways will be somewhat arbitrary anyway, either rotational, or best record (when the obviously don't play the same the schedule), or interleague results. None are perfect and all have flaws so why not make the All Star game mean something.

I was mainly focusing on expounding on the earlier comment that productive outs have been a problem and adding the team is K'ing a lot which is not unusual for them and they have had a poor batting average as a team for a long time which does impact scoring runs from 2nd. I realize in the long run and in big picture OBP matters more than BA but just like in economics the short run can have differing impacts than long run situation. I'll take a hit over a walk anyday as would anyone else and the Brewers ability to get hits is lower than most team, as evidenced by the low BA. Walks are great but they rarely drive in runs. The Brewers in the short run are having difficulting driving in runs and leaving guys on base. This would be fairly normal for a team with poor hitting skills and the best pure measure of getting a hit is batting average, again not arguing that OBP is important for the big picture.

This seems to make sense with some of my thoughts this morning. The team BA is pretty bad at 24th in MLB and 12th in NL. They can get the HR now and then to drive in the runs and help the OPS but the overall BA is bad and has been for a few years. Yes, I know how important OBP is but BB don't drive in runs from second and the low productive outs may be related to the number of K's which is always a point of contention. This seems to be one of the situations were fans that gripe about too many K's and poor BA's have a point. In an other thread I had figured out the team (outside of Braun in the numbers I ran for what I was doing) had struck out in 21% of the plate appearances vs. the Cubs/Cards.

The problem hasn't been just Braun during those seven games although Braun hasn't walked once in the last 7 games either and his BA is down to .233 over the 7 games of the Cards Cubs series. He left 13 on base which as I looked at the box scores wasn't too bad due to no on getting on in front of him. Everyone but Bruan : .255 BA and striking out 21% of plate appearances with 108 LOB. This has been a problem for the Brewers over the stretch, they haven't had timely hitting at all with over 20 left on base 2x, and mid to high teens 3 more times. Today was the lone exception with only 3 LOB's. Taking out today, the team has left 17.5 men on base per game during these two series. Hardy managed a 3/25 stretch for all of .120 during the stretch. The pitching staff? 1.57 WHIP with 44K (10 today) and 30 BB's for a 1.47 K:BB ratio. ERA over the two series 5.11

What is the risk of signing Ryan? Does Toronto have to pay the big salary and other teams can sign him for the minimum? I honestly don't know and can't remember the rules regarding these situations. If so, I see it has pretty low risk, who cares if his arm falls off from bad mechanics he is probably as good or better than any other league minimum guy and actually has some upside if healthy. If he ends up with a league minimm deal I am sure he will be a little choosy about where he goes.