MJLiverock

A friend who is a Cub fan told me Bradley lost a flyball in the sun earlier in the game and that was why he caught the ball like he did. I have no idea of the veracity of the story it was just one theory from a Cub fan.

From April 24th to June 5th he put up a line of .276/.368/.390/.758 and was hitting the ball well pretty consistently. That is 6 weeks and not 2.5. He slumped for the first 2 weeks and he slumped the last week, he has slumped for about 21 games on the season and was hitting well for 34.I think the 2.5 weeks he is refering too is the area around May5th to May27th where JJ had 22 of his 42 hits this season, hitting .355 during that 62 AB hot streak. His other 141 AB's are a dismal .142 average. He is steaky but those cold streaks are bitter cold. He is on pace for about 525 AB's and to reach a .265 average for the year he'll have to hit .301 from here out to make it (assuming his walk rate stays the same). Now I realize .265 is just an arbitrary number but it is pretty close to his career line of .263. If you believe JJ can hit .300 for an extended period of time then his average stat line is acheiveable, if you don't think he can hit .300 from here out then this year is going to end up being being a subpar year for JJ.

Anyone have any information on Odorizzi and Lintz for this season? I know the Brewers didn't want to stress Odorizzi's arm last year after his full high school season but shouldn't these guys make an appearance in Helena? I checked the website roster and didn't see their names on it but Arnett was listed with Helena so they have updated it recently.

Wow I just read through the threads and talk about jumping on a guy. The Crew has a point, players are not robots and no matter how many simulations or projection systems used the players are never going to fully adhere to the stats at a given moment or game. The mental aspect is huge in baseball and the constant downplaying of it by pure stats driven fans may not be arrogance but it does get condescending, especially when people have to look up third and fourth derivative stats to back up opinions which are all anyone has on here. I've learned a lot from the pure stats posters and peple like Ender have a wealth of knowledge and have taught me a lot but I can understand TheCrew's point, it may not be arrogance but condescending yes when every criticism of players like Parra, Hart, or Hardy is poo pooed as small sample, or because some projection system, or because well his BA sucks, no his OBP sucks, no his BABIP sucks, no his LD% is good so he must be fine and there is nothing to worry about. One of the reasons I hated the Cubs as a kid was because their fans could never admit a player stunk and constantly overrated their guys, it seems there is some level of homerisim or Brewer tinted glasses here that brings out all sorts of defense when every anyone critisizes a few certain players. Not every player in the team is an all star and some are going to flame out and not match their projections or improve each and every year, blind faith in historical stats or projections is not 100% acurate. Posters calling out Parra for sometime were met with all sorts of resistance even when they posted links to many comments from him, Yost, Melvin, Maddux, etc. about his mental state. Corey Hart was the same way, any negative post was met with, "it was just a couple weeks in September" even though it was more than that and now we see some of those same posters swing around toward wondering about Hart. Just because someone spots a problem in less than 1000AB's doesn't make it wrong. Now with Hardy the same arguments are happening, people dig for any reason, no matter how far down the chain to point out there is nothing wrong, but the reality is another 7 hitless games have went by and he is hitting .207, so something is wrong, he isn't hitting. At what point do the peripheral stats start to not matter and the primary stats like hits, runs, and wins begin to matter?

So after all the attention Selena Robert's book about A-Rod drew it has been a fizzle with the fans. Even with all the hype and A-Rod's supposed larger than life stature it has sold a whopping 16,000 copies including 11,000 during the first week. (The first printing was 150,000 copies). The book ranks 2,904th on Amazon.com according to the article and a bookstore in midtown Manhattan says they have only sold 2 copies and the Grand Cental Station book store says they sold 27 but none for 2 weeks. http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=Aviv80WpIREW94SM4b_vyq45nYcB?slug=ap-books-a-rod&prov=ap&type=lgns

A couple weeks ago I wanted to buy a season of a tv show I missed. I looked on Amazon, it was $20, I checked EBay and there was nothing priced under $30 and people were still bidding. Needless to say I bought a new copy from Amazon and saved money vs. EBay's prices. Today, I was looking for a somewhat obscure book, checked Amazon, it was in stock and $34.95, checked Ebay, and sure encough a number of BuyItNow's at $41 and some over $50. I've run across this numerous times with things like DVD's and books, are people just stupid or lazy they they can't figure out when a brand new item is cheaper on Amazon including shipping versus buying or bidding up the item on Ebay and dealing with whomever has the listing? I mean seriously it took all of a minute to compare the prices so its not like the search costs are excessive to find a better deal. I know it doesn't harm me in any way but it just boggles my mind.

No I was commenting the continued griping on this board about Braun's actions or character or what have you which is pretty odd considering he is possibly the best player the Brewers have had in the last 15 years or more and really hasn't done anythiing outrageous that ususally gets a target on ones back. If he watches a home run for a split second, or makes any sort of facial expression besides stoic, if he talks to the media about the team struggles, etc. a certain segment starts compalining about his attitude or being classless or some such nonsense. Now, he launches a clothing line and a post appears calling his behavior questionable because of it. It may have been tongue in cheek but it didn't come across that way and now post after post rips the fashion. I get it isn't everyone's fashion style especially not in WI where lets face it, we aren't on the cutting edge of anything trendy, let alone the demographic for the target market but geez no reason to continue dogpiling on the face of the franchise. I am sure most players on the Brewers or MLB for that matter, no matter how humble they may seem, (or even anyone under the age of 25) would be caught dead wearing what most of us wear out in public. It just comes across as a bunch of stodgy old people complaining about the clothes or hair of the younger generation and yet another reason for some to rip on Braun which I don't understand why there is so much nitpicking of everything he does. Someone actually posted they would probably punch someone in the face if they saw them wearing one of those shirts, I mean come on. If you ever go out in a city or college atmosphere these types of shirts are fairly common and T shirts over $50 are not that rare so that tells me a lot people need to get out more if they think Braun's line is so outrageous.

Yeah I don't get it either. It's getting to the point where anything Braun does is criticized and bemoaned for being unclassy or questionable. I have never seen such a good player questioned so much by his hometown fans, especially one who has had no obvious triggers like contract disputes or law breaking. Um, because its mostly a joke? Did you look at the pictures? C'mon. Make a joke, you know you want to. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/devil.gif It looks like they asked him to wear one for a pic so he put one on over the sweater and collared shirt he was wearing, just like many people do when trying on clothes. I am sure the ladies in attendance wouldn't have minded him stripping off the sweater and collared shirt to put on the T but I am sure some people's heads would have exploded if Braun appeared shirtless at the mall. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I guess I don't think the shirts look that bad, I know at 35 I am pushing the edge of his target market but graphic T's are hot sellers at Urban Outfitters, Abercrombie, Hollister, True Religion and other higher end teen to young adult stores. My wife even bought me some crazy graphic and script shirts at Bananna Republic last summer. They can't possibly be as bad the slogan shirts like, "Worst day fishing is better than the best day at work" shirts or the "Grip It and Rip It" shirts popular across WI in the summer.

I didn't mean to seem as if I was questioning Ibanez, he has been amazing so far, although his D has always been questionable but his offense so far is off the charts so hard to argue that one. I was just curious about the Braun/Kemp comparison just because I have seen a few "mock" All -Star teams with Kemp over Braun, I'll admit I like both players and it is hard to complain about either.

Yeah I don't get it either. It's getting to the point where anything Braun does is criticized and bemoaned for being unclassy or questionable. I have never seen such a good player questioned so much by his hometown fans, especially one who has had no obvious triggers like contract disputes or law breaking.

Curious as to why the Kemp over Braun on a few choices. Is it just to go against the hometown guy? I have Kemp as a keeper on my fantasy team and it looks like their stats are very similar thus far, Braun does have a higher OBP and SLG leading to a much higher OPS, but he doesn't have as many stolen bases. I'll admit I haven't seen much of Kemp's D, but Braun seems to be playing a pretty good LF thus far and is much improved vs. last year when he seemed tentative at times. The other interesting one is Ibanez. It seemed everyone was down on the signing of him over Burrell and yet Ibanez is on fire, I can't believe how well he has started out.

I hear what your saying Fondy, Cruz always seemed to be a guy who produced great numbers but never got much attention and was viewed as a throw in in the Rangers trade. I am sure the Brewers looked at Hart as the guy to keep and Cruz was also blocked by Jenkins and Lee in the corners while he was in AAA. I remember there being some criticism of Cruz's ability to hit breaking stuff and he did K a lot but supposedly had a stellar arm iirc. Hart K'd his fair share in the minors as well but was a few years younger at most levels, for whatever reason Cruz did't play much minor league ball until he was 20. As time goes by this may seem like a regrettable decision by the Brewers but most likely just a case of banking on Hart and thinking Cruz had no where to play. Interestingly, in 1700 plate appearances, Hart is .274/.323/.476, with much better vs. LH numbers but seeing a decline in his overall numbers over the last year or so. Cruz in about 800 plate appearance is .262/.324/.470 with better numbers vs. RH pitchers and in the short run, trending upwards vs. his short career averages. (playing in Texas probably helps his numbers somewhat if Texas really is a hitter's ballpark)

I'd rather he said nothing and did what he did which is being upset and going inside to be with his team than rant on TV or make up a bunch of fake humility or cliched praise of the other team. I'd rather have a guy upset about the loss than hear the boring cliches anyway. I think this is being made into way more than it really should be. As someone said they don't shake hands after a baseball series and football is pretty non chalant about post game handshakes, the coaches shake hands but everyone else goes their own way.

I think the anxiety people are feeling over Hart isn't just the horrible 3 weeks last September, it is the very bad OBP since May of last year. Yes, those 3 weeks in Sept. 08 were horrific but other than April of this year (when everybody walks) Hart hasn't been able to get his OBP much above .300 for any month, his best was only .310. and that was in a month where he hit .299. So basically 5 out of the last 6 months he has been below .310 with the average OBP well below .300. His career line in about 1700 plate apperances is .273/.322/.475 but he hasn't really been improving and has trended down in BA and OBP, while his slugging has actually been higher than average since May 08. As was mentioned earlier is he becoming a guess hitter who can't recognize the pitch so he just swings hard at almost anything? In 2007 he absolutely destroyed LHP with a OPS over 1.000 and hitting .331/.419/.613 in 160 ABs. In 2008 he fell back to earth vs. LHP with an OPS of .797 and hitting .281/.324/.473 in 167 ABs. In 07, 08, 09 vs. RHP he has been fairly consistent with a low .300's obp, only .320 in 07 but slugged really well in 2007 at .504 vs. RHP. In 2008 and 2009 he has been .400 and .450 range in slugging. To me as much of an abberation the Sept. 08 results may have been, his remarkable hitting vs. LHP in 2007 may have inflated that year's stats as well. He could very well be a .260/.310-.320/.425-.450 player when normalized. Meaning a .735 to .775 OPS player which as a RF is probably average to slightly below average.

I ran across this article about Manny Parra from last May. http://www.madison.com/wsj/home/sports/brewers/286160 But of course we all know that any mention of Manny's mental approach needing work is all just made up message board talk and doesn't matter. or this quote from last September after a disastorous outing vs. the Phillies "Before this season, Parra had maxed out at 138 2/3 regular-season innings while with Class A Beloit in 2003. Before Saturday, Parra was at 158 2/3 and had shown signs this month of hitting the wall. In his three September starts, Parra has totaled 11 1/3 innings, 19 hits, 16 runs, 10 earned, eight walks and 14 strikeouts. But neither Parra nor Yost would say the left-hander is tired. "Tired?" Yost said. "Look, we're in a pennant race in September. No. Its' a nice excuse. "He hasn't pitched well. His stuff is fine, his location is off. He pitches in spurts. He pitches a couple of good innings and then a bad inning. He doesn't contain the damage." That is similar to the way Parra began the season, when he had a string of starts in which one bad inning would negate the handful he pitched well. Yost agreed the situations were nearly identical, but Parra sees a major difference. "There's a big difference," Parra said. "In the beginning of the season I felt like it was a mental thing. The past few outings I've had the right mental approach, being very aggressive." Or this quick comment from Parra Houston made it a one-run game and knocked Parra out of the game in the sixth inning. Parra exited with a 7-5 lead, and the Astros greeted Brewers relievers Carlos Villanueva with a pair of doubles to make it 7-6. After that, Villanueva and Guillermo Mota combined to allow one hit and no runs over the final 3 2/3 innings. "My thought process and my mental approach was on target, I just didn't make some pitches," Parra said. "There were other times earlier in the year where I would be thinking the wrong thing and was mentally off, which is more unacceptable to me." These are just quick comments from Parra about is mental approach but questioning his mental make up isn't just some made up message board thing, he has mentioned it many times, Yost has talked about it the past, team mates have talked about it and the media covers it. Just because there isn't a Excel function that fits a regression line for mental focus (well the error term that fudges a lot of stats could cover it but I digress) doesn't mean it isn't valid or at the very least something that is talked about and thought about by Manny.

The more I see of the trade I am more comfortable than my initial glance, thanks for the comments on his defense. It sounds as if he is a viable leadoff option against RH pitchers, especially if Hart is given some days off. Everyone has been waiting for Hart to rebound since last July so maybe this move can provide some days off or at least some alternative to Hart vs. RH pitchers occasionally.

Kind of a "meh" move for me. Still don't have a viable lead off hitter w/o Weeks and questions about 2B. Gerut will be an upgrade over Duffy if he hits like 2008 but he has some pretty awful years spread around in his past as well. (edit - - I take that back, looking at the "years that looked awful was really just some limited AB's while playing for 4 different teams in one year.) One question if anyone knows but where was Gerut in 2006 & 2007 he doesn't have any ML or minor league stats for those 2 seasons was he hurt for 2 years?

Didn't the Brewers basically put Nelson out there once or twice already and no on claimed him so he ended up staying with the Brewers this spring. The hand wringing that we got nothing for him was most likely due to there not being anything to get for him. Teams have had shots at him before and didn't take him and even now that Seattle took him they stuck him back in the minors. I don't recall people being this worked up about losing Anderson or McGruder or whatever fringe ML player that gets dropped by teams all the time.

I got it for free a few years ago with my ESPN Magazine subscription, I later cancelled the Mag but they offered to let me keep the insider for something like $20/year. I always mean to cancel it but they auto renew it every time and once they renew it they won't cancel it so I end up keeping it for another year. I don't find it that useful, it was nice during the NFL draft and the rumors section during the deadline activity but that is really it. I don't think it is really worth it. Especially, now that I end up gettimg more baseball news via this site than anywhere. The other annoying thing is ESPN's website is so full of add ons with videos and ads that it loads slow and is a pain to navigate so I rarely go there anymore.

But if your wallet only holds 25 bills and you already have 25 bills equal to or greater than the $20 you have to leave something out. Espeically if you have already left that $20 bill laying on the ground for anyone to pick up and not one person picked it up last time.

Nelson was a guy who after 4 or so years of time in AAA put up decent not spectacular numbers. As a 1b his numbers are pretty pedestrian, as a below average defensive corner outfielder his numbers aren't that special either. My prediction is the guy is going to be a career bench or platoon player if he can stick in the majors at all for more than a year or two. If he was going to have any shot he needed to play a lot more than he was going to in Milwaukee and the Brewers, the Brewers need to keep the line moving (to steal a Sveumism). There just wasn't a spot for him and he isn't special enough talent wise to make one for him. It reminds me of the Joe Dillon infatuation, Homer still whines about letting Joe Dillon go, but Joe Dillon is still out of the league and not playing for anyone so its not like the Brewers made some fatal error because the rest of the league didn't want him either. I see Nelson going the same route, a fringe ML'er, who may catch on for a year or two and then disappear as younger players with more upside push their way into the league a la Matt Gamel coming up.

I don't think we will miss Brad Nelson one bit now or in three years. The Brewers have improved as a team and they don't have to keep marginal guys around for years and years hoping one pans out. That is the old Brewer strategy when rebuilding, pick up discarded guys and give them regular playing time to see if they figure it out, teams competing for playoff spots can do this with maybe one spot but can't keep a roster full of tweeners and give them playing time. That is for the Mariners, Nationals, Padres of the world now and soon to be Astros when they have to try and rebuild with a weak farm system. If a guy leaves and has 2 years of continually weak performances and then "puts it together" for a year I am not going to complain because they wouldn't have had the PT with the Brewers to get there and even then getting there maybe just being serviceable or average. Given how many prospects and guys just don't work out a line has to be drawn somewhere to let the next guy get his shot. We've all seen the posts of how Nelson Cruz is going to be a star or Dana Evelend or Will Inman or JDLR or Ben Hendrickson or Joe Dillon and now its Brad Nelson.

I've moved down a few rows in my own section once it was obvious the seats weren't being used and there was room to spread out, but given the capacity levels of the games lately I don't anymore. But I did have kinda the reverse of this situation happen to me a few years ago at County Stadium. It was during the last year of County Stadium and I worked for a bank and was using their club seats. In County Stadium the club seats were basically folding chairs in a little walkway hanging just below the upper deck, not exactly great seats but not too bad and you had wait service just like now. I was probably 24 or so and had my girlfriend, younger brother and his girlfriend with me. It was a Sunday afternoon game late in the season and after the sun went down behind the stadium our seats on the 1st base side got cold for the girls so we asked the usher if we could move to the 3rd base side where the sun was still shining on the seats. He radioed over and let the other usher "guarding" the entrance know we were coming over and why, the place was pretty empty anyway. When we got to our new seats some guy in the club area kept taunting us saying we snuck into the "rich seats" and didn't belong there. He wouldn't let it go and kept saying he was going to call the ushers to kick us out. We were just sitting there not bothering anyone, not even drinking, I think I was the only one old enough too and I drove. Finally the ushers came down, checked my tickets, called over to the other side and let us stay but the fan who just had to play " seat police" never let up on his, "I can't believe they let just anyone sit here," and "these punks don't belong" here tirades to his buddy. So anytime I see someone worrying about where someone else is sitting I think of that guy.

The CSR's are usually the least informed people to deal with unless you are just trying to get something ordered or fixed, they have no clue about how the programming works. For DirecTV customers: If you are watching MLB network or maybe even one of the RSN's you press the Red Button on your remote and the scoreboard screen comes up with all the current scores and the option to tune directly to each game. If you press, "watch now" on the Brewers/Cards score a list comes up with all the channels showing the game and whether it is HD or not. I think 4 or 5 channels were listed for this game so I had to try a couple before I found the one that was the WMLW feed and not the Cardinals feed which were all blacked out.

Yeah, I am in Madison watching the game on DirecTV channel 680 right now and I don't have MLB Extra Innings or anything. It is the WMLW/FSN broadcast.