Phenomenal Smith
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Everything posted by Phenomenal Smith
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That's the point. His mean has not been established, yet y'all are acting as though it's a given that he will maintain his current level of production.
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Regression toward the mean.
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Best Offensive Rookie Year in History
Phenomenal Smith replied to homer's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Pujols vs Braun Braun has 238 plate appearances and here's how he compares to the 2001 Pujols after he had 237 plate appearances. Braun = .357/.418/.652 Pujols = .352/.399/.676 -
Based on data from 1999-2002, a number 3 hitter will hit with 2 outs 37% of time while a number 5 hitter will do that 33% of the time. A number 3 hitter will hit with runners on base 48% of the time, as will a number 5 hitter, but the number 5 hitter will have 3.1 runners on per game vs, 3.00 for number 4 hitters. (Source - Tango, Lichtman, and Dolphin, The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball, p.122) At any rate, the order is not hugely important, though it can make a small difference.
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I believe that Tango, Lichtman, and Dolphin advocate the following: Your best OBP and SLG hitter should hit 4th. Your second best should hit 2nd. The third slot does have a lot of two out/ no runner situations, while the fifth slot has higher leverage at bats, so you should probably put a better hitter in the fifth slot than the third. FWIW, I think Braun would be a great clean-up hitter.
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I do. When baseball first went to the wild card system, he said that the people who supported this change "simply hadn't thought it through." In other words, if you happened to disagree with Bob, you weren't just wrong, you were dumb too.
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I thought we weren't supposed to mention anything about Braun in this thread - or does that apply only to me?
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Saying Pence had no shot at the ROY shows a complete lack of respect for Pence. It's very poor analysis.
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Yeah, but that's also 100 at bats for Braun's stats to cool off. Look, I figured Braun was more likely to sustain his stats because Pence hasn't shown much patience at the plate, but to act like Braun was blowing away Pence is simply poor analysis.
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Toward everyone. He has a way of always talking down to people as if he's a brilliant intellect and the rest of us are 3 year olds.
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I know this is a Brewers forum, but that's just plain silly.
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Costas is far too condescending to be enjoyable.
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The problem with LOOGYs is that they take a roster spot away from a position player. While managers and gms love LOOGYs so they can play the platoon advantage, they concede the platoon advantage on the other side by losing a position player. In other words, if more teams would just give up on the idea that they need a LOOGY, they could carry an additional hitter to counter the LOOGYs of their opponents.
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You could post it on Google Spreadsheets and Docs (so you wouldn't need Excel on your computer).
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If their rate stats remain about where they are now, but Pence still has more than 100 at bats over Braun, then Pence is the clear choice.
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Last year Ensberg became only the 4th major league player to hit below .240, have a slugging percentage above .450, and draw over 100 walks. The others players who have done this are Adam Dunn (2006), Mark McGuire (1990), Mickey Tettleton (1992,1995), . He was also only the 8th player since 1885 to draw 100 walks while collecting less than 100 hits.
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The Astros basically gave up him on around May 12. He has only started about 1/3 of the games since then. He's just an enigma. His Balls In Play Average has been about 50 points below league average for both 2006 and 2007, and this year he's not walking much. At 31 he's not young, so maybe his skills have deteriorated, or maybe he just needs a change of scenery. With that guy, I just don't know anymore .
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Benoit Dead, RIP wife & child-Latest:Doctor Charged
Phenomenal Smith replied to JimH5's topic in Off-Topic Forum
About 100 years ago there was a baseball player named Marty Bergen who killed his wife and kid(s). I just can't imagine how messed up one could get to do something like this. -
I've never been able to figure out what effect a manager has on a team.The best that a fan can hope for is a guy who does a decent job of filling out the lineup card and handling the pitching staff. What happens beyond that is hard to evaluate - if not impossible. Here's a curious bit of useless info. All 3 franchises that have been managed by Jimy Williams went to the World Series within a few season after they fired him. The Blue Jays fired him in 1989 and were in the WS by 1992. The Red Sox fired him in 2001 and were in the WS in 2004. The Astros fired him in 2004 and went to the Series 2005. So, there's your Plan B if you want to get rid of Yost. Just hire Jimy for a season, fire him, then go the Series a year or two after he gets fired.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif
