Fear The Chorizo

If they see 6 or 7 guys in the box, they should run the damn ball every play until they see more.

Is it weird for me to think that the Packers' defense is actually worse having a lockdown, all-pro corner on one side of the field, because it leads to defenses always looking at whomever is being "covered" by King on the other side or Sullivan in the slot?

Norm was one of my alltime favorite comedians - when I was still living near Chicago I went to see him do standup at a Zanies, and while he was still really funny there were segments of his routine that were a bit strange. He told some really uncomfortable jokes even for him, and what made it uncomfortable was that his delivery didn't seem like he typically would make it and at times he seemed like his mind was elsewhere and he could care less if the room was enjoying the show. Overall, it was still good and at the time we chalked up some of those weird moments of his set to him either being bored/annoyed doing a show in the far north burbs of Chicago or possibly he was 3 sheets to the wind by the time he got on stage....now following his death I realized that if accounts of his 9 year battle with cancer are accurate, we likely saw his show right around the time he either found out about his diagnosis or quite possibly in the midst of initial treatment - and his scattershot demeanor during that set now seems alot more plausible due to that. RIP Norm...you'll be missed!

I'm pretty sure we were having this exact same discussion around August 2017 regarding Jimmy Nelson....the Brewers need to tread very lightly with paying huge money, longterm extensions to pitchers well before they actually become free agents. Their focus should be to continue with the assembly line of pitching coming up through the minors quickly (Small, Ashby, etc) and have replacements for when guys like Burnes/Woodruff move on in free agency. I'd prefer they try to take the route the Brewers did with Fielder for both Woodruff and Burnes - try to lock in a contract extension that actually doesn't buy out any free agent years but locks in their salaries during arbitration years to give them some payroll certainty. I'd be perfectly fine with the Brewers finding ways to pay these guys what they would likely command in arbitration and then look at either trading them their free agent year in the offseason for a haul (assuming there is pitching depth in the organization to replace them) or at the deadline if the Brewers are out of contention - or just ride them to free agency, get the draft pick, and move forward without having to pay them $30M+ way into their 30s.

Since one of the Cards' WS titles came on the heels of a season where they won 83 regular season games, I'd think the chances of any team making the playoffs is better than zero - especially the Cards. They'd have enough pitching to hang around in a series against anyone, and if Goldschmidt/Arenado get hot they can beat anyone. I'd want no part of the Cards in the playoffs, because frankly that means they probably played the Brewers pretty well their last 7 games in the regular season. To me, the Brewers' season sets up pretty well for a whole bunch of satisfaction - knock the Cards out of the playoffs by winning their last two regular season series, perhaps prevent the Dodgers winning their division in that last series. I'm pulling for the Reds finding a way to crawl into the playoffs, then have their lineup catch lightning in a bottle and knock of the Dodgers in a 1 game WC round. Meanwhile the Brewers can hopefully take care of business against a Braves team that's scuffling but has some talent and wind up with a NLCS against either the Giants or Reds.

This is going to be one of those frustrating losses, isn't it?

I was told by someone once upon a time that there is actually a "weather" line in WI that if you cross it going north the trees change pretty quickly from mostly deciduous (leaves fall off) to more evergreen (pine). And I think it's roughly Hwy 29. I could be wrong, but I think almost all of pre-European Wisconsin was covered in conifers and the line just represents how far the loggers got before they moved on to the more lucrative forests out west. From a climate perspective I don't think there is anything special about that area, it just gradually gets colder and snowier as you go north until you get into the area influenced by the Lake Superior snowbelt which is certainly unique. At least from a Milwaukee perspective, "up north" could be anywhere that involved a weekend getaway...I think we used it for a family member's lake house in Oconomowoc. Your comment on the conifer/deciduous tree line is somewhat accurate, but doesn't take into account the clearcut practices of 1800s logging when there were also intentions of converting the land to agriculture across the southern 2/3 of the state - Where the farmland stops and heavily wooded areas start, that basically points to where the absolute clearcutting ceased after Chicago and Milwaukee were initially built - particularly across the oak savannahs that had more areas resembling a prairie that weren't solid trees like the northern section of the state. Thank god most urban construction materials had started to shift away from wood by late 1800's, otherwise the aftermath of the Chicago fire would have probably stretched the treeline into the U.P. If you spend alot of time in northern WI, you can tell it's a mixed forest of mature conifers (hemlocks primarily), hardwoods (mostly maple and elm), and plenty of popple/tamarack in swampy areas. Pre-European WI was mostly wooded, but it had a wide variety of deciduous and conifer trees.

He is on a massive heater. It's at the point where I'm surprised he doesn't get an extra-base hit. Wiemer hits the ball too hard and far to be considered a top 100 prospect though I have no detailed proof of this, but I'd imagine there might be quite a few prospects drafted later on during last year's COVID draft that are turning heads with their initial performance - simply because it was a weird draft and there wasn't an initial minor league season for them to break in last year. Wiemer is definitely exhibit A from the Brewers' 2020 draft of that - Guys with his tools typically wouldn't last beyond pick #100, and the lack of a collegiate baseball season before last year's draft likely prevented him from rocketing up draft boards last May/June. It sure seems like the extra year of whatever instruction/drills they had Wiemer working on to harness the raw tools he has in the batters box is paying huge dividends.

That is a very good question. Hader could get very expensive. If the Crew has to pay Hader $15 million a year, but could extend the trio of Strickland/Boxberger/Suter for a total of $8 million, and have that $7 million available for the farm system and scouting... perhaps it's better to go for the aggregate production, the additional farm/scouting resources, AND whatever haul Hader nets in a trade. If the Crew can maintain a pipeline of good pitching... it may be smart to make a judicious Hader trade (say, for instance, to an AL team). I'm not saying either option is one the Brewers should pursue - I don't like the idea of paying Hader $15M a season as he ages into his 30s, but I'd much rather do that than extend replaceable relievers for any length of time and cost. The trio of Strickland/Boxberger/Suter can be replaced with league minimum or pre-arbitration relievers once they start getting even close to expensive. Giving a mid 30's journeyman reliever any sort of longterm extension is questionable with how volatile relievers of that caliber can be. I could see an attempt to give Suter a reasonable extension for a few more seasons if he'd be open to it, but he may actually want to find an organization that gives him another shot as a starter (and likely a larger contract offer). I've been firmly in the camp of holding onto Hader through arbitration for several years, and trade him only if the Brewers aren't in contention at the trade deadline of his free agent year. He's too valuable to the success of this team to consider trading him when they have any thoughts of contending, which will remain the case for the forseeable future, and sometimes the best value you can get for a player is to have him pitch for you all the way to free agency and then not make the mistake of paying him a huge amount of money in free agency to watch him pitch in your uniform as he declines.

My goodness - if it weren't for all the games the Cards have left with the Brewers, I think I'd be inclined to say they were going to wind up winning that 2nd wild card spot rather easily because the Reds and Padres are cratering....hoping the Brewers win the last few series against them and the Reds take care of their own business with 13 of their final games against the Pirates/Nat so the Cards don't sniff the playoffs. Sure seems like the Padres are a trainwreck right now....seats piping hot in that front office

As I noted earlier from a personal standpoint, it would really be enjoyable to watch SD throw prospects & cash all over and fall short. Thanks for sharing the data. I do think it's worth noting the continued difference in preseason expectations and actual performance for the Brewers, who have consistently outperformed (especially Fangraph's) pre-season win expectations. I don't know what analysis & formula Stearns & Co are using that bucks these expectations so consistently, but they have seemingly found models that lead to outperformance vs. expected results. I think one thing the Brewers do better than most organizations is utilize the entire 40 man roster to maximize the number of games won at the MLB level. We always seem concerned about impending 40 man roster crunches as guys near coming off the IL, trade considerations, or worries about prospects aging into Rule 5 status if they aren't tossed on the 40 man roster - Stearns and company seem to have an endless roladex of veteran players they bring in who somehow have surprising amounts of team control and options remaining to fill out roster spots 38-40 that can help the big league club win a few extra games without sacrificing unnecessary loss of service time to prospects who aren't ready to get thrown into the MLB fire yet, all the while maintaining flexibility across their organization. One thing these models don't do a great job of, IMO, is weighing what having 40 man roster depth that can readily be used at the MLB level can do for teams to consistently win ballgames. Also, making early in-season trades like the one Stearns pulled off for Adames really throws preseason win projections in the dumpster.

Agreed on the defense getting manhandled in the trenches being a key to them getting trounced yesterday....but that has nothing to do with Rodgers basically having his worst game as a pro statistically that he didn't leave early due to injury. His and the offense's terrible day also contributed to the defense living on the field, too, and turned a loss into a curb-stomping.

Both Scherzer and Burnes are too far behind Buehler in innings pitched due to differing reasons for missed or fewer starts to be ahead of him for the Cy Young. I think it's Buehler's to lose unless he gets injured. Wheeler will factor in the voting alot, but I doubt he gets a ton of 1st place votes due to his team's position in the standings. If Burnes isn't in a season long 6 man rotation and maintains the insane rate stats he currently has, he'd be the Cy Young favorite even with two-ish missed starts due to COVID because of where his counting stats would be right now. However, it's also very fair to have the view that the 6 man rotation is a key reason why Burnes has been so dominant with the extra rest - that likely factors against him winning an award that's essentially a counting stats/season-long sort of award, but also probably helps him be a better pitcher in the postseason than had we rode him for 225IP before the calendar even sniffed reaching October. The difference between Burnes and Buehler's rate stats isn't significant enough to offset the extra quality innings pitched Buehler has in 2021 for this award, IMO, and Scherzer is likely to to get more votes than Burnes due to the markets he pitches in/name recognition/etc...

I'm not saying this is THE reason Rodgers played poorly yesterday, but it was essentially the first game he's had to play in any sort of crowd noise that could be considered a typical NFL football game since the 2019 season. The entire 2020 regular season was played with basically nobody in the stands, and even the 2021 playoff games were limited in capacity to 5K or 10K people from what I can remember. I long thought last year's COVID season gave a huge advantage to Rodgers and the Packers because of how great he is at the line of scrimmage and with presnap cadences keeping defenders from getting off well on the snap. I recall last season how much more quickly the Packers seemed to get a playcall in, get out of the huddle, and have a rhythm on offense. Also, the game mics actually had to be muted during televised broadcasts because you could hear everything being said on the field - audibling at the line of scrimmage was easy, reading defensive adjustments was easy, and line/blocking calls were easy to get everyone in sync before the snap. None of that happened at all yesterday - in fact their offense looked a ton like it did during long stretches of the 2019 season when many people were pining for all new receivers and looking at the 2021 season as the best option to move on from Rodgers based on what his contract looked like at the time. Rodgers made some very bad decisions with the football yesterday, and I wonder if the rust we saw isn't necessarily just with skipping minicamps and preseason games, but moreso with playing in noise and being able to communicate as easily as an offense in it - something that appeared to be a problem all season long during the 1st year in MLF's offense back in 2019. Particularly with a rookie center and guard playing their first NFL game, Jenkins out of position at LT, etc.

Just making the Dodgers play the wildcard game and hopefully having to use one of Buehler/Scherzer, then have to beat a Giants team with their pitching staff lined up exactly how they want it in a short 5 game set is reason enough to want the Dodgers in the WC round no matter what.... Plus, either the Reds or Pads at least have enough starting pitching to potentially pitch a gem and plenty of offense to win a one game winner-take all format.

Gary and Z Smith got some pressure. P Smith was nonexistent. Its also really tough to get consistent pressure on a qb when they spend the entire game ramming the ball down their throat running it. Saints have a good offensive line and a great running back, so its not like every opponent should be able to dictate the line of scrimmage as much as what we saw in today's game.....but the good running teams are going to be a problem for the Packers until they prove otherwise. Also, they gave up too many qb scramble plays to extend drives. Finally, King cannot be starting on the defense anymore - he is getting picked on constantly. Get Stokes on the field more, can't be worse...

The defense gave up consecutive 15 play td drives in the 1st half to basically play keepaway from Rodgers and also put them in a hole...that hasn't happened in the NFL in like 20 seasons. They set the stage to get away far too soon from the running game, and it looked like passing formations were incredibly vanilla in terms of routes and playcalling because of it - basically the offense looked like a unit that needed alot more reps together going against a defense that played aggressive knowing there was little to no threat of it costing them. Regardless of preseason snaps, they knew their week 1 opponent all offseason long and this was the best they could do in terms of gameplans and playmaking? Embarrassing on all fronts, to be sure.

If I'm a beat reporter tasked with covering the Packers, I dont even show up to the post-game presser. After all the garbage they had to deal with covering all offseason the last thing I'd want to do is have to listen to more of their nonsense after this complete clunker of a game.

Get the 3 and then start the 2nd half with a scoring drive to make this a game

No answers on defense...at all Doesn't even look like they have any aggressive blitz call or formations, they are just passive and being dictated to.

Its amazing how fast a gameclock runs when your defense can't stop the run...

Not going to put too much stock in week 1 results - going to take time for a starting roster that basically didn't play at all during preseason to gel. Saints likely played more together in preseason figuring out who was going to be their QB. Saints are 5 yards downfield all game long, defensive front is getting abused

GB run defense is essentially a wet blanket again just hoping the ball carrier gets tired with them passively getting blocked at the point of attack

So did no pass rushers suit up for the Pack today? Winston may wind up with 100yds rushing

That was well struck