Fear The Chorizo

Basically between August 21th and the end of the season they had a single planned off day on September 20th. Still, it is incredibly misleading to say they only had one off day as they had numerous postponements that rested their pen just fine. No it isn't. I also said the Cubs played ok during this stretch - agreed that it took the Brewers getting white-hot all through September to wind up catching a team that played the month with a winning record. By season's end, that Cub team was gassed in large part because of the stretch from mid August through mid September and the fact they didn't have an opportunity to rest guys down the stretch and still win the division outright because the Brewers went 20-7 Sept-Game 163. From post AS break (July 19) through October 1 (game 163 against the Brewers), the Cubs played 70 games in 75 calendar days. The Brewers only had to play 65. The Cubs had 1 less day off during the AS break because they had to start with a 5 game/4 day set against the cardinals after an earlier rainout. During their 2nd half, the Cubs were forced into playing two 9 inning doubleheaders, and had one of their designated days off in late August turn into a trip to Atlanta to for a makeup game to start a 10 game roadie immediately after 9 straight games before it. Two of the Cubs actual calendar days off playing in that stretch still had them at a ballpark getting ready to play, but they had rainouts - Sept 7 (rainout, still went to the ballpark on the road) Sept 9 (rainout at Wash, had to fly to MKE to face the Brewers before flying right back to Wash to make it up on the 13th). Plus, 7 of their games during the 2nd half went extra innings. That National series that had 2 rainouts, a doubleheader, and on top of that, 11 hours of in-game rain delays just to get those games in was brutal. What really caused issues for the Cubs down the stretch is they didn't get any meaningful contribution from September callups because they had no quality depth on their 40 man...meanwhile the Brewers had 9 calendar days off during the 2nd half and were playing September baseball using extra bullpen arms and pinch hitters galore after all the callups they made. I recall Rizzo was griping early on that season in April that there were too many games, lamenting what was in store for his team later that year after all their early spring postponements - and I'm pretty sure he actually boarded the plane to go to that 1 game makeup back in Washington mid-september with just his game uniform as a statement to how crazy their travel schedule was.

I think that was 2018 and what allowed the Brewers to catch and tie them for the division. That year Cubs still played ok through that stretch, but they had something crazy like 28 games in 28 calendar days from August-mid September - they had 1 offday mixed in but it included a doubleheader and a few random trips to play makeup games either on the road or back at home in the midst of a long road trip. Even leading up to that stretch, they had limited days off from late July through mid August due to some early season rainouts, too. In 2019, the Cubs had a 9 game losing streak against the Reds, Cards, and Pirates in mid september to seal their fate.

I still expect the Dodgers to overtake the Giants for the West Division crown....but every day we get further into September seeing them stuck in that WC #1 spot makes me smile a bit more. The Dodgers and Giants are done playing each other the rest of regular season, so they can't rely on head to head matchups to gain ground directly - Giants have a ton (9) of games left with the Padres but also have the Rox, Cubs, and Dbacks to keep bolstering their record, while the Dodgers have Cards, Padres, Reds, and Brewers with only 9 games left against the Dbacks and Rox - so I'd actually give the schedule advantage to the Giants at this point. How I look at it, the Dodgers' biggest advantage over everyone in the NL is how deep their top end pitching and offensive talent is on their roster - meaning it's really tough to beat them 4 times in a 7 game series. Forcing them to have to win a 1 game wildcard against any WC#2 team then have to beat the Giants in a short 5 game series before reaching the NLCS really would help the Brewers' overall chances at the pennant, IMO. It will be very interesting what that last series between the Brewers and Dodgers looks like to end the regular season - depending on records, both teams could be trying like heck to win those games to either win their division (Dodgers), or from the Brewers' perspective keep their toughest competition in the wild card round. The Giants will be playing the Padres during that time, who will also likely be fighting for their playoff lives.

Feels like the Brewers often have a few extra offdays in September compared to other teams - part of that has to be the fact they have 81 homes games where they are guaranteed not to have a rainout with the roof option in their ballpark. This year most rainouts have resulted in next day doubleheaders across MLB to try and limit excessive travel as much as possible, so I'd imagine most teams have a good number of days off down the stretch.

Yup. You dont have to have 1st team aa's to make motion and play action useful tools in the toolbox. I think there's a big difference between running motion/jet sweep action on potential running downs to keep weakside backers honest in the run game and occasionally run the jet sweep to create some lateral space in the defense compared to the effectiveness of play action with a quarterback that appears to have issues with both accuracy and reading defenses that are going to more and more zone concepts against the Badgers. If Mertz is too slow to find a spot in the zone to throw a guy open, play action isn't nearly as effective even with the run-heavy offense the Badgers utilize. I agree that presnap motion and misdirection should be utilized more often to try and get a defense out of position and isolate the reads Mertz has to make, but at the end of the day the kid has to be able to make some throws, too. And personnel absolutely does make a difference with these concepts. When they had Taylor, Gordon, or even Ball carrying the ball 25+ times a game behind loaded offensive lines defenses had to sell out on the run all the time - so play action with those guys in the backfield was a guaranteed wide open tight end running down the field at minimum and it made really average quarterbacks look pretty good at times like Hornibrook or Stave just having to make 1 or 2 reads and loft the ball out into wide open gaps in the secondary to let guys run under passes with no fear of safety help over the top. It's only one game this season, but it was showing up last year frequently, too - teams aren't having to sell out against the run to actually slow the Badger run game down lately. That makes play action less effective to begin with because there's more coverage in the defense to start - but compounding the issue is the fact that Mertz isn't making good throws or good reads when having to go through any progressions. Earlier in this thread someone mentioned watching alot of gametape from Wilson's year with the Badgers and how much bootleg and outside the pocket play action was in their offense - that's because it's Wilson's strength to be outside the pocket making plays with his legs and getting away from the trees in the trenches to see downfield - he also had two NFL-caliber WR's to throw to (Toon and Abbredaris), a good TE, a loaded backfield, and their offensive line was full of NFL players - that 2011 offensive roster had considerably more talent than the current roster does, and that was before Wilson even transferred. A senior, NFL-ready quarterback in Wilson compared to the current version of Mertz isn't even a comparison between quarterback talent making plays on a football field right now - and that's

Having Melvin Gordon running the jet sweep with Monte' Ball in the backfield, or having anyone running jet sweep with Taylor in the backfield is alot different than what they have now for RB/slot receiver personnel - plus I think the overall athleticism of Badger offensive linemen and fullbacks is really lacking compared to a few years ago that doesn't allow for misdirection plays to work as well as they recently have. They really struggle blocking in space, and I don't think their running backs are near the home run threats that Taylor or Gordon were. To me the Badgers seem like they've lost their offensive identity and their personnel is stuck trying to run a 1980-early 1990's pro style offense with a QB who isn't accurate especially when having to work through his progressions, receivers who are limited athletically to create a ton of space on their own or make plays on jump ball situations, and good-not-great running backs that won't force defenses to stuff 8 men in the box constantly.

Wisconsin has benefitted tremendously over the past 10-15 seasons from turmoil amongst the Big Ten's typical Tier 1 programs during their run as an annual 10+ win team - and the fact they've played in the conference divisions over the years that basically guaranteed even an average Badger squad from reaching the Big Ten title game most every year. When they had OSU and Penn State in their division, many of their Big Ten titles came while one or both of those programs were sanctioned or going through coaching staff turmoil - so Bucky got to beat up on an average at best Nebraska squad in Big Ten title games while Michigan still also sucked. With what appears to be very questionable play by their blue chip quarterback during his first season +, I get the sense it may be Bucky's turn to go through a few middling/disappointing seasons where expectations outweigh results - they do still have an advantage of playing in the Big Ten West if they can right the ship and beat Notre Dame a few weeks from now and roll through the rest of their schedule again.

I think Brees was actually more of a limitation for their offense last season than a help against good defenses that forced him to throw downfield - that's not to say the QBs left on their roster now are going to set the world on fire, just that Brees' HOF credentials should not include his performance/talent level from the 2020 season. To me it's all about preventing Kamara from having a monster game and making life too easy for Winston/Hill/whoever is throwing passes for the Saints. And, it's about keeping their D line honest and running the ball offensively to set up some deep seam opportunities for Rodgers throwing the ball - Oline needs to play well against a pretty solid Saints defensive unit.

As the arms get more expensive in arbitration, the position player portion of the payroll needs to shrink accordingly - the way current payrolls are structured for the next few years, contracts like Cain and Bradley come off the books and those dollars will go largely towards pitching arbitration salaries. No way should the Brewers consider trading some of these young ace-caliber arms until their free agent year - if they are out of contention, you can still get a haul by dealing an ace-caliber starter at the July deadline if it's unlikely a guy like Woodruff or eventually Burnes won't be resigned longterm.

I believe this was the consensus on Luis Urias coming up as well, and he definitely looks now like a guy who could hit 30 HR at some point in his career. Sure, but Turang has 10 HR spread across about 1000 minor league at bats, while Urias hit 36 minor league home runs at equivalent ages, including 19HR in AAA as a 22 yr old in only 340 at bats. Granted, Urias' power explosion in AAA came at launching pad El Paso. I have a hard time seeing Turang's power potential going from a 5-10HR MLB player to 30 in the next few years, especially because that 5-10HR amount is still projecting him to find more slugging than what he currently has. Because of his speed and defensive ability, Brice doesn't have to hit for huge power to be a very good MLB player, though.

I guess I just don't see all trades as needing a clear winner and loser, particularly this one - both teams came out pretty good with this deal which primarily involved sending young players who were largely blocked at their primary positions at the MLB level in 2019. The other part of it was essentially trading a progressively more expensive and closer to free agent Davies for Lauer - which in my opinion is a clear bonus for the Brewers simply for longterm payroll flexibility. With Yelich and Cain still under longterm contract, plus Braun with one season left for 2020, it's not like Grisham would've been slated for everyday playing time in the OF in Milwaukee last season. Who knows, maybe Stearns had his eye on signing Garcia before trading Grisham - which would have made him even more blocked for 2020. Nobody could've forecast at the time this trade was made that COVID would've led to Cain opting out in 2020 for most of the year. Urias was also blocked longterm in San Diego at most of his IF positions, so it made sense for the Padres to move him before he was stuck in the role of a bench player/utility IF who wouldn't get as much regular playing time as he's had with the Brewers.

Definitely. He is 5.7 years younger than the average position player in AAA. You can't use average age for comparison in AAA. The other minors sure. But when you have players like Tim Dillard in AAA, it doesn't make sense to even use that stat. Splitting hairs, but Turang reaching AAA in what really isn't even his 3rd full minor league season is pretty impressive, particularly given the fact he was a H.S. draftee. There was no season in 2020 due to COVID, and 2018 was just a partial year right after he was drafted.

I think the problem for the Cards getting into the postseason is the fact they play the best team in baseball like ten more times in september

I think the best chance the Brewers have is to get into October healthy and with the NL Central Division title, meaning they won't have a 1 and done WC game to play before getting to a best of 5 series. Trying to figure out which opponents lead to the easiest path to win a title when you have to go through the Dodgers to even get there is pretty pointless - at some point it will come down to Milwaukee needing to bead the Dodgers in a best of 5 or 7 game series, and I think their pitching is good enough to do either. Frankly, I'd be a bit disappointed if a Brewers title run wouldn't include being the team responsible for knocking off the Dodgers along the way.

As of Aug 31: Yelich: .771 OPS Brinson: .716 OPS

I think that is definitely a factor, although not the only issue. If I'm not mistaken her cancer diagnosis happened in early 2021, which means Hiura's poor showing in the COVID-shortened 2020 season occurred prior to it. I think another problem is that Hiura's strengths as a low ball hitter don't have a chance to show when everyone across baseball is moving towards pitching up in the zone consistently - particularly with velocity. Even during Hiura's awesome 2019 season (raked at the MLB level and even moreso in AAA), he struck out at a pretty high rate and seemed to struggle with pitches up in the zone and velocity. However, he demolished baseballs when they were located in his happy zones. Now he's fouling off or making very inconsistent contact with those same pitches and it's giving pitchers more opportunity to attack the swing and miss holes in his swing without paying for missing those spots. Hiura has always had a very pronounced leg kick/load mechanism to his swing that even being a fraction off is trouble for timing and making solid contact. On top of that his swing path doesn't match up well with where he seems to set his hands at the start of his swing - his hands aren't high or low, but they are sort of in between. That's ok for a level swing, but his uppercut swing plane starting with hands just above the shoulders basically forces him to have a loop in his swing right at the waist - he'll almost always not be able to reach elevated pitches above his belt, and swing around most of the waist-high stuff that leads to plenty of swing and miss or poor contact on pitches that should be meatballs. IMO, Hiura needs to quiet down his leg kick/timing mechanism to limit how perfect is timing needs to be in order to hit a baseball. He also needs to either start his swing with his hands lower to eliminate the loop in a uppercut swing path so he can reach middle-high pitches, or he needs to start his hands higher and eliminate the launch angle swing path and take a much more direct approach to the ball. He's got enough hand speed in his swing that sacrificing a little power to dramatically increase his contact rate and line drive percentage would still make him a very good offensive player. He's a mess at the plate right now, both mentally and physically....but the talent is still there. Really hope he gives himself some time away from the batting cage after his 2021 season ends so he can come back fresh and hopefully start from square one without any bad habit artifacts from what he's doing right now at the plate in game situations.

Zavala set up low and away and Lynn tossed a cookie right down the middle. Definitely wasn't a center cut "cookie", was a 95 mph fastball that started off the plate and tailed back to the outer third just above the knees....actually a pitch that most hitters wouldn't even go after on 3-0. Lynn may have missed his spot where the catcher set up, but not by very much. If they wanted to make that pitch and have it end up just off the plate or on the black, the catcher probably needed to set up off the plate, not on the corner. You know LaRussa saw the replay in the dugout before the end of that 1/2 inning, where the pitch wound up, etc.... I get that people hate LaRussa, but is him getting animated with the catcher in the dugout after that situation really that terrible? I guess I don't know whether just prior to that at bat if there was any sort of mound visit to go over pitch sequence or discussion about not putting Guerrero on intentionally but instead giving him nothing close to the zone to hit to try and see if he'd get himself out. He might be an insufferable blowhard, but he's a great manager....if he wasn't such a terrible human being to the point his act grows tired and has missed multiple blocks of seasons away from baseball between organizations he'd be the winningest manager in baseball history - despite that he's 2nd.

It's just so much fun watching this machine of a team win ballgames!

The Bears went from a 6 win team in 2015 to a 3 win team in 2016 thanks to that Sitton signing, too....Sitton apparently played well enough to earn a Pro Bowl nod that year, but then again it's tougher to not make the Pro Bowl at some positions based on all the alternates named nowadays. Bottom line is Sitton signed a contract after getting cut that paid him the most money, which also happened to be with a team in the Packers' own division (i.e., likely not a trade partner with GB before he was cut) and also who had a terrible enough roster to have plenty of room for a starting caliber guard and pay him $10M in guaranteed money. My guess is there are very few NFL teams ringing phones off the hook looking to trade for starting guards during training camp unless their own building has a slew of injuries at that position.

Adam Wainwright can go into the Cardinal hall of fame, for sure....but not the MLB hall of fame. He was a good pitcher that had a very long career - but he was never a dominant pitcher in his era as evidenced by no Cy Young awards.

??? TT cut him and they got nothing. He then immediately signed a 4 year contract with plenty of guaranteed money to play for Chicago. They probably could have traded him instead if they really wanted him gone. That failure was pretty much the point where it was clear TT needed to be replaced. It was widely reported the Packers did indeed try to trade Sitton before cutting him and there were no takers - perhaps in part because teams knew he was probably on the way out anyways and didn't necessarily want to be saddled with the last year of his contract knowing once he was cut they could work something out longer term that fit their own cap situation better if they really wanted Sitton. Chicago signing him to a deal right after he was cut at the time speaks to how bad their O-line was....and their organization isn't exactly the model of personnel management I'd want Green Bay to aspire to, either.

This holds true for pretty much every series left. Head to head is always a bit overrated in my opinion. We just don't want to find ourselves on a losing streak when the Reds are on a winning streak. I have always thought playing the other team is somewhat unbeneficial. The other team is pretty good (I would rather be playing the Pirates) and there is no way to win a series 2-1 and gain two games. If the Reds won a series against someone else and we got swept they can gain 2 games over a 3 game period. Just feels like there is less opportunity to keep pace or gain decent ground....as sweeping a team as good as the Brewers is pretty darn unlikely. I thought the Reds were going to need to really gain some ground to cut the lead before the calendar flipped, probably make it sub 5 games back. They are really running out of time to get within reasonable distance. What do you mean H2H is overated? 3 game series and a sweep one way or the other is a 6 game swing in the standings. In any other series not heads up is just 3games where both teams can have the same results. That is essentially what the Brewers have done to the Reds since All Star break is match their record when not H2H. So if the Reds can't gain in a non H2H they need to win the games vs the Brewers to gain games on them. We need to start preparing for the Dodgers catching SF and SF and Reds being the wild card teams. 14-2 in last 16 and Scherzer is 3-0 in 4LA starts, who may just snipe in here on Cy Young and steal it when LA does overtake SF. Milwaukee's late season runs always included a SP who came in and won games that you didn't expect that type of result. Scherzer looks to be that guy for LA and you expect those results. I think the point with the H2H matchups of playoff teams down the stretch is that it's just tougher to sweep series against other good teams - so there's always this "6 games left against team X who's trailing by 5 games, if they win all 6 they win the division" line of thinking, when the reality is that even if they go a much more likely 4-2 against a team that has proven to be better than them all year long, they walk away from those 6 H2H games still 3 games behind the team they are chasing. Yes, making up ground can be done most efficiently with H2H matchups, but so can losing ground in the standings. More often than not what it takes for a big lead to be squandered or overcome (depending whether the team you root for is leading/chasing) is a team scuffling just below 0.500 for a few weeks while the other team plays 0.800 baseball during that same stretch against weak competition, maybe with 1 H2H series mixed in amongst that stretch that builds momentum. All 162 wind up being important, and at this stage it's just critical for the Brewers to avoid a poorly timed 5-7 game losing streak. I agree that the Dodgers look like they're catching the Giants next month - assuming that does happen, then I'd want the Brewers to gun for the top overall seed so their 1st round matchup would be against the Reds or Giants and the Dodgers would have to deal with a Braves team that has been rolling until it ran into an equally scalding Yankee squad the past couple nights. As this season winds down, it will be interesting to see how that final series in LA will unfold - whether the Brewers/Dodgers are both gunning for the best record or not.

Such a big W to come back and win this game at the start of a series - takes away the threat of a worrying (but not debilitating) sweep and really gives the Brewers a chance to curbstomp any hopes of a Reds push to winning the division on their end.

Wong Dong!!

Hiura's 400 terrible MLB ABs from 2020-2021 are roughly the same amount of plate appearances he had across 2019 between AAA and MLB, the year he was essentially a 1.000 OPS hitter (.938 MLB, 1.088 AAA) despite a higher than ideal K rate. If Hiura gets back anywhere near where he was in 2019, he's a bat that will be in the MLB lineup and it shouldn't require him destroying AAA pitching for 3/4 of a season in 2022 before he's given another shot - DH or not. My point about Hiura being the Brewers' best initial option as an everyday DH (if the NL adopts it) is entirely based on what he did at the plate in 2019 and frankly the talent he has that made him a 1st round draft pick. He's struggled mightily at the MLB level the last two years, but there's also been alot going on off and on the field during that time - COVID 2020 that saw a ton of hitters struggle, mother's cancer battle, emphasis on defensive work at 2nd in 2020/position change to 1B in 2021. I also view a potential DH role from the Brewers perspective as a bonus roster spot they could fill internally with either someone from what their 2022 bench will already be, or a guy like Hiura rather than having to spend via free agency to bring someone else in.