Fear The Chorizo

I saw that the Bears recently franchised Robinson again...but they now either need to trade him or work out an extension that improves his cap hit for 2021 or they are going to need to make significant cuts to get under the cap - and thats still with just having nick foles as their qb. Also, the Falcons have alot of fun on their hands this next week...they have 6 players currently accounting for almost 75% of their cap space for 2021, have a roster of only 39 players, and are still about $14m over. Big chunks of that will be dealt with by some restructuring and maybe a key cut or two, but their front office is going to be busy just filling in their roster by the 17th

I think at this stage you just hope like hell Mitchell actually gets a full minor league season to hit the ground running (not to mention all other minor leaguers) and get accustomed to pro ball. I seem to recall a knock on Yelich when he came to the Brewers that his swing could be tweaked a bit to turn alot of high exit velocity grounders into more damaging extra base hits/HRs - and that's after he spent close to 5 seasons in the big leagues with the Marlins....too soon in Mitchell's career to dabble in a huge swing change, but the potential upside is too enticing not to attempt some gradual tweaks to better tap into his power. I think you start with the offensive speed/contact foundation that made him a 1st round pick and make minor adjustments during the course of a full minor league season, then put in the significant work in offseason training to develop that power.

Yes, but that 182.5 is still the base point for any carryover/reconciliation figuring. Im sure the Colts would love to have a team cap of ~230M for 2021 instead of what they are working with had the baseline cap not been reduced by 8% from 2020-2021. For teams like the Packers, who have basically no carryover, 182.5 is a very real hurdle to deal with from a roster management standpoint.

So much for it being $200M this year after adding the extra regular season game and new TV contract...some will still think the 2022 cap number will magically go up to $240M to alleviate all salary cap concerns across the league, but honestly future cap increases will lag slightly behind the anticipated big revenue jumps when fans return to stadiums because the 2020 season was played with basically no gameday revenue and 2021 will likely have crowd limitations, too. Good on the NFL to add that 17th game/TV $ to help inflate this year's cap above where it could have been once they knew revenues were going to plummet in 2020 to avoid widespread cuts - hopefully the 2022 cap bump will push a bit over $200M to give a team like the Packers some room to get Alexander locked up longterm and also not force their hand on trading Rodgers or Clark if they don't want to. This cap number also is terrible news for this offseason's free agent class - there still are going to be alot more good veteran players cut that will flood the market even with it being set at $182.5M.

So now the Cowboys have among the highest paid QB and RB in the league just as their once ballyhooed O-line that really made life as easy as possible on those positions is starting to fall apart due to age/injuries....yeah that should end really well!

I'd imagine the whole roof open/closed discussion as to viral transmission rates pales in comparison to what their policy will be related to bathroom use and food vendor layout along the concourses. An open or closed roof 150+ feet over everyone's head doesn't impact risk near as much as a well orchestrated policy at the areas where people are going to congregate (bathrooms, concessions, gates, etc). With 25% capacity limitations hopefully they also have initial restrictions on what portions of the ballpark various tickets are able to access - otherwise 25% capacity all crammed down to the lower bowl or all able to access the main concourse will make chunks of the stadium completely empty and other portions feel like it's at capacity. And most importantly, by the end of April there should be enough of the general population who have either had/recovered from COVID or been fully vaccinated - particularly among at risk groups and age brackets - to just tie a bow on this whole damn thing and remove public restrictions altogether. Honestly we are probably about at that point already but just need to go through another case spike a few weeks from now coupled with a lack of a hospitalization spike to achieve enough of a public sense of calm to move on.

Yep ... should probably serve as a warning to those pushing for the Brewers to trade Hader. They'd probably be lucky to get 1-2 prospects back the caliber of Diaz and Harrison, let alone a Top 25 MLB prospect like Brinson was at the time. Ya, nothing's a sure thing but Hader has a lot more value now than when Yelich did at the time. Brinson was the only "top guy" we gave up. Diaz was well regarded and Monte and Yamamoto were essentially lotteries. I'd expect at least two "top guys" in return and certainly higher level prospects overall. I'm not sure about that - at the time Yelich had more years of team control under what was a bargain contract even for his production pre-MVP than what Hader has left now via arbitration. IMO an everyday all star caliber corner OF in his prime and locked into a very team-friendly extension for 4 (or was it 5) seasons carries more value than a lockdown late inning reliever with 3 years of arbitration-based team control. Brinson headlined the trade return, for sure - but Harrison appeared to be a season behind Brinson in terms of being an everyday corner OF with pop at the major league level. Diaz was also a prospect with a solid-enough track record that he was far from a lottery ticket. Also, given the amount of minor league service time for both Harrison and Diaz at the time, I believe the Brewers needed to either trade them or add them to their 40 man roster before they were ready to avoid losing them via the rule V draft. It goes to show how hard it is to project what well-regarded prospects wind up being at the big league level.

I wouldn't go that far, yet. There is still lots of time for any one of Harrison, Brinson, and/or Diaz to figure it out and be a stud. That said, the early returns are looking good for Stearns. I mean, Yelich won an MVP and probably would have won a 2nd had he not fouled a ball off his kneecap in his first two seasons with the Brewers. Even if one of these three does figure it out and become a stud, the trade will remain highway robbery. And those prospects were already kind of long in the tooth to be considered prospects while they were with the Brewers three seasons ago.

I'm in suburbs, and I prefer any of the Moretti's locations. Their deep dish is okay, but their thin crust is why I go there. The other places that are great are Home Run Inn, and of course an old favorite that is still around, Barnaby's. Haven't tried Pequod's but I will keep it in mind. Ironic, in that I've found Pequod's to be the closest thing to Rocky Rococo's that I've found in Chicago. Pequod's sauce is a little spicier, but overall it's fairly close. My favorite deep dish in Chicago remains Art of Pizza on Ashland, just south of Belmont in Lincoln Park area. On the south side near white sox park, Ricobenes makes a good thin crust pie as well.

I'm guessing this was leaked by his agent and no such offer exists. I have no proof of this. Since the NFLPA president is already urging the players and agents to openly collude on contract offers over the next few years that are going to be impacted by lesser caps than where they otherwise would, I'm sure every agent out there is going to call the Jaguars up and ask them to provide a contract offer for their client just so that amount can get leaked out there - even if there's absolutely no chance that player signs with them. https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/30963821/nflpa-demaurice-smith-tells-agents-collude-offers-ensure-teams-not-limiting-salaries-source-says And to a different post in this thread, a diminished but still healthy JJ Watt is still a pro bowler at the DE position in a 3-4. He would be a HUGE upgrade to the Packers' front 7 compared to what they have in Lowry. He won't win a 4th DPOY award, but he's still a very good player - that's not 2015 name recognition, it's the 2020 game tape that says so.

Hitters don't watch video to adjust their swings mid-game...the value in it is that video gives them an idea on how pitchers/catchers are trying to get them and other hitters out with pitch/location sequence. Video lets them see pitch selection and the intended location of a pitch, and they can zip through that footage quickly leading up to their next AB. I'm not sure on exactly what can be shown in the clubhouses, but another value video would bring is old ABs from various relievers to give them that visual scouting report of how they may be pitched to the next time they face each other. The obvious counter is to point out that those guys weren't exposed to nearly as much upper 90's heat nor the type of movement pitchers get on their breaking pitches in the modern game. Believe me, for the good of the sport, fans should want these hitters to have access to video to level the playing field. Between games, sure - but I actually prefer no video use during the game....otherwise there will be another Astros-related incident where it's used to gain an unfair advantage between the lines while the game is being played.

Unknown is correct, however it won't be over $185M. Thinking the cap will somehow equal last seasons of $198M or magically increase to the ~$210M it would have likely jumped to in 2021 had their not been a pandemic that crippled gameday attendance revenues is pointless. If there will be some magic that sets the cap close to ~$200M we wouldn't be seeing starters-when-healthy on both sides of the ball on a team who made the NFC championship game get cut to shave $10M off their 2021 cap number.

Many homes that aren't dumps in that $300-500K price range are often sold or have offers/inquiries before they every actually hit the market around here - even during dead of winter. I should've clarified where I live too... I'm about 25 miles south of the metro (Lakeville/Prior Lake). Probably in the last "suburb" heading south of the cities. When I moved in, my neighbor had goats. So the price range I mentioned was for here and south of here - which becomes farm land. I wouldn't touch anything close to downtown or the nicer suburbs (Minnetonka, Eden Prairie, etc...) for the prices I mentioned. For reference, brand new cookie-cutter 3-4 bed room houses on a 1/4 acre lot run $400-500k in Lakeville, which is why the cap on used is around $350k. All true - I'm equally as far out west/southwest in Saint Boni (near Waconia). Just west of me is still cornfields and goats.

The Padres organization either owns or partially owns a TON of property immediately around their ballpark (which happened to be publicly funded itself) and have stake in many mixed residential/commercial property developments surrounding the area. They likely make more money as an organization for non-baseball activities than gameday revenues, and those revenue checks are cashed year round no matter what's going on at Petco. It also should be noted that the Padres are one of just two MLB teams that doesn't share its market with any other major 4 sports league teams - so they don't have to compete with other franchises for fan $'s...meaning even a fanbase that is fickle and isn't as engaged as WI sports fans gives the Padres more money than what Brewer fans give them simply due to lack of competition. That goes for TV dollars, too. Oakland somehow is the other, although they basically have all the SF teams in their backyard. They are the pro sports marketplace for San Diego - which is a larger market than Milwaukee and their overall metro area population of ~3.5 Million people is closer to the overall WI state population than the Milwaukee/Madison metro area. San Diego is only ahead of three clubs: Kansas City, Milwaukee and Cincinnati in terms of market size. While it is true that they don't "share" their market with anyone, they are also hemmed in by the Pacific Ocean, Los Angeles to the North, and Mexico to the South so there isn't a ton of potential for market expansion. However, the Padres did a similar splurge once before when they signed James Shields and traded for Craig Kimbrel, Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, Melvin Upton, Ian Kennedy etc. then broke the team up a year or so later. At least this time around they have Machado and Tatis and not a bunch of veterans in their 30s. I'd argue being extremely close to Mexico and Tijuana - with a metro population approaching 2.5 million people - carries a plenty large potential for market expansion. Tijuana and San Diego are essentially the same metro area separated by the border only. "Market' how MLB defines it is far different than overall metro area as well. Milwaukee is hemmed in by Chicago to the south, Lake Michigan to the east, and no large urban centers north and west of Madison/Milwaukee worth a darn in terms of market revenue.

Everything points to the final number being between 180-185 million, which is still a significant reduction to last season and still a hurdle for many teams to work roster management around. It bumped up from 175M solely because they added a 17th game and are working on adding the TV money that would come from that. Had they not agreed to initially set the 2021 floor to 175m last summer, last seasons revenues would have put the cap down to 160m. Raising the floor now means a slower overall cap increase in future years when revenues do jump back up. This is good news, but not great news for the packers' manageable but tricky cap situation.

Many homes that aren't dumps in that $300-500K price range are often sold or have offers/inquiries before they every actually hit the market around here - even during dead of winter.

I live in a condo community in Waukesha. Last year, I had six neighbors who had lived here fewer than four years sell their property at a gain that computes to an annual 6%-8%. I will be listing soon, and I would love for my place to have appreciated at an annual 6%. But near north Chicago isn't quite as hot with all of the restaurants shut down and all of the riots/looting last summer. I think I'm far enough away, but 6% ARR from when I bought it four years ago would be an absolute dream... it's what I would need in order to not lose money on it, given all of the repairs. 5 years ago we moved from a pretty well-to-do neighborhood north of Chicago to a far west burb outside MPLS....we wound up making a small profit on our home sale in IL and thought we bought at the right time in our current MN locale. A few weeks ago we just saw our neighbor's house and other nearby homes sell for close to 175% of what their value was back in early 2016, and our old home back in IL is currently under contract for close to 10 percent lower than what we sold it for back then. The housing market is exploding in many places, but it is stagnant to declining in others - and that's even with all the levers trying to prevent a flood of foreclosures from happening right now. Also, rent is getting crazy expensive pretty much everywhere, to the point where it's more financially sound to overpay for a house in a mortgage one can barely afford compared to a similar monthly rent payment for something crummy and you get zero equity from.

The Padres organization either owns or partially owns a TON of property immediately around their ballpark (which happened to be publicly funded itself) and have stake in many mixed residential/commercial property developments surrounding the area. They likely make more money as an organization for non-baseball activities than gameday revenues, and those revenue checks are cashed year round no matter what's going on at Petco. It also should be noted that the Padres are one of just two MLB teams that doesn't share its market with any other major 4 sports league teams - so they don't have to compete with other franchises for fan $'s...meaning even a fanbase that is fickle and isn't as engaged as WI sports fans gives the Padres more money than what Brewer fans give them simply due to lack of competition. That goes for TV dollars, too. Oakland somehow is the other, although they basically have all the SF teams in their backyard. They are the pro sports marketplace for San Diego - which is a larger market than Milwaukee and their overall metro area population of ~3.5 Million people is closer to the overall WI state population than the Milwaukee/Madison metro area.

Some of the Love angst is simply the fact people didn't see him play a snap of preseason due to COVID, so all they have to go on is quotes and reporting of how he looked in a practice schedule that was also severely hampered due to COVID. I'm looking forward to watching Love get some extended run next August in preseason. 1st round QBs typically start right away or shortly into their 1st pro season, because the teams they are going to have no better options on their roster in terms of talent - when 1st round QBs are drafted by teams with quality quarterbacks, they spend time holding clipboards and developing from the sidelines. It's really that simple. I feel fortunate to be a fan of an NFL team that has found a way to transition from one HOF QB to another, and that now has a 1st round QB talent developing while their current HOF QB just won MVP of the league and has plenty of gas left in the tank to try and 'run it back' in 2021.

The league year starts on March 17th, and I'm pretty sure that teams have to be down to the cap number by that date. So my guess is either that the cap number will be released any day now, or that they are negotiating a soft cap for 2021 with the player's union. Last season, I believe the 2020 cap was formally announced on March 15, and the league year started on March 18thish? There typically isn't the angst about where the cap is because up until this season, the only question was always how much the cap would go up from the prior season, not how much it would be reduced. That meant far fewer veteran players/contracts for teams to be concerned with, even for teams that found themselves way over projected caps. That being said, I'm pretty certain front offices have a much better idea where the cap is going to be set sooner than when it's publicly known. I'd also really hope the league is in steady contact with front offices right now because of this unique situation.

As a followup to some previous discussion in this post RE: Watt, more food for thought: Z. Smith was the 2nd-ranked edge rusher across the entire NFL in terms of how frequently he was double teamed in 2020. Guess who was ranked #1 - J.J. Watt. Next season GB could line those two up next to each other on passing downs with Gary flying off the other edge and mixing Kenny Clark in the middle...and still have 7 other players in coverage or available to blitz.

Until the actual 2021 cap is publicly disclosed by the NFL, probably in about another month, cap issues and how to sort them out isn't worth speculating. Recent stories indicate rosier scenarios than $175M (good for the entire league), but it won't be close to what the presumed annual 5-10% cap increase has been pretty much every season until the pandemic hit. What I mean by that is the 2021 cap won't be close to $215M and the 2022 cap won't be close to $235M like some rosier projections had projected them to be around this time last year before COVID blew everything up in terms of gameday revenues. The extra regular season game and updated TV contracts will definitely help things, but even the NFL needs more certainty on being able to sell out stadiums 17 weeks a year to keep their revenues headed north. Because of that, many teams are going to have tough decisions in 2021 no matter if the cap is set to be $175, 185, or even equivalent to last year's cap at $198M....Packers included. As others have pointed out, the advantage GB has is the fact they have some flexibility on contract restructuring and have options already on their roster to replace significant free agent losses (meaning they can replenish through the draft and bargain FA deals instead of chasing top end free agents). Also, GB's current cap situation at least includes a full roster of players under contract for 2021....IMO that's a better spot to be in than many other teams who are close but still under that hypothetical cap number with far fewer than 50 signed players. Specific to how this works for bringing Watt to the Packers, let's see where the cap actually winds up and how some of the other contract restructuring likely to happen with some of GB's marquee players unfolds. They may also have some flexibility to slap a franchise tag on someone if they really want to keep them around another season.

The best comp I could give Reggie White to today's lineman is that he'd basically be Aaron Donald in Suh's frame...essentially an unblockable 300lb lineman that could move like a typical 260-lb rush end. White ran a 4.6 40-yard dash as a 300 lb lineman during his prime - that's still essentially unheard of 30 years later. Line him up anywhere in any system and he'd be a perennial 15-20 sack lineman in this league, probably even more considering how much more pass-heavy the NFL is now compared to during White's prime USFL/late 80's heyday.

Interesting to note that out of about 120 qualified pass rushers in 2020, Watt ranked 15th in pass rush win rate. Watt also graded out solidly in run stopping. These metrics are somewhat finicky in grading out true impact of a player....but it's not like the Texans' D line was stacked everywhere else and a severely diminished Watt was just cleaning up scraps - he was still consistently double-teamed because they frankly had nobody else good enough to double. He led their bad defense with 5 sacks and tied for the lead with his 1 INT and 2 forced fumbles last year. Also by far and away led the team with 16 tackles for loss (1 less than Z. Smith and top ten in the league). Watt is still a very good defensive player and would be an awesome piece for the Packers to add to their front to plug a glaring hole on their roster in terms of talent at the DE position.

Yeah, this just screams for Watt to close his career out wearing green and gold. He's earned plenty of $ already in his career and if he's hunting for a title, he has to understand that those type of teams are going to have limited funds available with a likely strained 2021 cap situation - JJ could honestly earn more money in local endorsement deals if he signed with GB than what he earned last season as a player in Houston. I'm not anticipating Watt being anything close to the player he once was pre-injury that earned him 3-time DPOY awards....but he would really look good lining up next to Clark, Gary, and Z Smith. Despite the tread on the tires and diminished ability due to injuries, Watt will be 32 at the start of the 2021 season....past his prime but not ancient in terms of a lineman.