Fear The Chorizo

A big part of that decision to trade #4 was watching game tape of that nfccg and realizing Favre was probably the biggest reason they lost.

White Sox and it's not even close.

Thompson rarely delved significantly in free agency, but Woodson, Pickett, and Peppers were fantastic signs. Agreed that he hit much more on offense via the draft than defense - although some of that stigma lies with some early round defensive draft picks never having the career they could have due to injury. Nick Collins, Justin Harrell among the most prominent. Plus, he did draft both Raji and Matthews in one year that set the defense up to be Super Bowl caliber just one year later. Towards the end of his tenure, Thompson just wasn't hitting on as many of the mid round selections in the draft - which led to thinning of talent across the roster when his 1st round picks weren't instant studs, particularly on offense. Many of them had decent careers, but just weren't perennial pro bowlers (Bulaga, Perry, Clinton-Dix). I think his last 1st round pick was Kenny Clark, too. Thompson was great at finding mid round WRs who wouldn't command top WR money and pairing them with great QBs to prevent inevitable salary cap hell - and he also had a solid record of finding mid-late round OL that became solid NFL starters.

Regarding the cap situation, I'm hopeful that adding that 17th regular season game helps jolt revenue streams along with gameday ticket sales to get the salary cap headed back up quickly after the 2021 season, where it will likely be around $175M. There will be plenty of teams dealing with cap issues that aren't necessarily in cap hell, but the reduction will limit how much new money they can shell out extending their own deserving players - let alone splurging in free agency. There are teams that aren't in cap hell, but they have a low number of players under contract heading into 2021 - meaning the remaining roster holes will need to be filled by guys making peanuts - those teams typically are the rosters looking to spend in free agency. Take Tampa Bay for example - they have roughly $27M in projected cap room for next season (7th best in the league per Spotrac), but only have 30 guys under 2021 contract that make up their total. And when you look at who those guys are, it's tough not to see them taking a huge step back next season based on who they will likely have to let go or not resign. Given where the Packers currently are, I'm going to do my best not to think about what they'll need to do in order to get comfortably under the cap in order to sign a draft class and even start entertaining how to extend Jaire and some other quality young talent that will be necessary heading towards 2022. Getting 2 more W's would sure make crunching all those financials more fun to do in the offseason - particularly once we know for sure where that 2021 cap will be.

The whole point of the vaccine is to prevent people from getting it and potentially to reduce the severity of the cases for people who eventually do get it after getting the vaccine. There is no effective 'treatment' on the horizon to my knowledge that would benefit society more than a preventative vaccine. The vaccine is our only realistic way out of this at this point. Actually, based on how the Pfizer and Moderna studies were structured that led to their emergency use authorizations the whole point of the vaccine is to reduce the severity of COVID cases for people who eventually do get exposed to coronavirus after getting jabbed twice, and potentially/hopefully to prevent fully vaccinated people from getting it as an asymptomatic carrier and transmitting to others. That's at least where we are at this point with the vaccines in distribution. Agreed that a preventative vaccine would be fabulous for society to get past this...but at this point we don't know whether the vaccines in circulation are preventative in terms of infection/transmission to others or simply symptom-limiting for the vaccinated individual.

Even the game earlier this year where the Bucs trounced GB, it started with the Packers going up 10-0 and they had the ball early in quarter #2. GB was in control of that game until turnovers flared up. Up to that point GB had a good mix of run and pass, with Williams getting a few good runs right at the defense. Then came the pick 6 and 2nd pick that set up the Buccaneers inside the 5, and the game plan seemingly changed instantly with no run balance and even the running plays they tried doing were stretch/toss plays that TB's rangy linebackers snuffed out easily. Lazard wasn't in that game, which is actually more significant from a run game perspective. The oline had a very bad day, which seemed to be made worse after GB got 1 dimensional, too. It was the one game this season where it seemed like Rodgers and the offense reverted to what they did in 2018-2019....pass heavy, at times forcing everything to Adams, and seemingly trying to extend stagnant offensive plays to throw people open. I don't see that being the case a second time on Sunday.

That's the insane part - expecting teachers who are doing in person instruction to also facilitate elearning/meetings with kids doing that option. Our district in MN had enough flexibility to have teachers do either or based on what kids were doing, and that worked out really well until Thanksgiving timeframe when the entire midwest had its spike that led to staff availability shortages (not spread within schools, but staff/teachers getting COVID or being a close contact from exposure outside the classroom). Over the past 6 weeks or so, our district has been full elearning with an option where kids can still elearn from their classroom with their paras(teachers aides) watching them - which has worked ok. Even during this time the district hasn't tried to merge the kids who started the year in person with the group who've been elearning the entire semester. We're scheduled to go back to full in person this week (elementary), with the hope of even through high school being back to full in person by late February.

If the Packers don't lose the turnover margin by more than 1 this game, they are going to the super bowl. Unless they shoot themselves in the foot for an extended period of time, they are the better team playing with the better quarterback, and they are playing at home. The bucs' biggest advantage is their overall defensive speed, and that gets neutralized on a slower track being outdoors in January in green bay. The only way Tampa stays in this game is through a bunch of unforced gb turnovers or gb has a horrid defensive game and it turns into a shootout. Extended forecast doesn't look frigid, but a good chance of accumulating snow during the game....like the titans game.

I don't think that has anything to do with Arians...it's unlikely he has much say in the defense with Bowles there. Yep, and it has just as much to do with the back end of the Buccaneer secondary having no reason to fear anything going downfield over their heads - which shrinks the field and tightens windows to the point where contested passes are the norm. Sitting back in a cover 2 shell but being able to know everything will stay in front of you without even having the safeties need to turn and run downfield makes even a conservative defense look aggressive. That look with no downfield threat leaves essentially 7 in coverage against 5 at most in the route within 15 yards from scrimmage, with 4 D lineman pinning their ears back and rushing the passer. They can even afford to blitz every so often and have plenty of coverage behind it.

Tampa Bay doesn't win this game if New Orleans has a QB with an arm. Of all the teams left in the field, Green Bay is playing the best right now.

Give me Tampa Bay next week - they're only in this game because of turnovers. Did they beat GB earlier this year? Absolutely, but I don't see Rodgers gifting them 14 points off INT's again. Both of these teams have elements that could give Green Bay problems, but both of their QBs are no longer able to carve a good pass defense up at will because they can't throw the ball downfield even in climate controlled conditions. Neither of these teams looks very impressive to be honest - that could easily be because they're evenly matched and are playing for the 3rd time this season, too.

To add to this, didn't realize Veldheer was just signed by the Colts just on 12/31/2020 and was essentially retired prior to that, just a week before their last playoff game. I thought he was on their practice squad/roster much longer and would have also been included in the day to day testing protocols NFL rosters had been doing all season....frankly there are many more ways he could have presumably gotten COVID even earlier given the fact some exposures might take a week+ before showing up in test results. To your other point - in a state where documented close contact spread is much more prevalent than community spread (or anywhere in reality), how does that initial infected person that winds up serving as a close contact source get infected? Excellent contact tracing can sometimes work back through multiple families or close contact settings, but all of those tracing situations winds up with a dead end that gets attributed to a "community spread" case initiating the series of close contact infections. Just because documented cases trace back to close contacts much more than community spread doesn't mean community spread isn't the driver at the end of the day - even in states with stringent mask mandates and a general population that follows them and enjoys telling everyone how good they are at it(i.e., CA, NY, etc). Masks do help mitigate, but they don't eliminate risk of infection. I'll just leave the rest alone, because this is a rabbit hole that is diverging from the thread.

Easily? Why not? Both NY (where the game was played Saturday) and IN have documented cases of the new COVID strain that is significantly more transmissible, both states are presently going through infection spikes, and last I checked COVID can indeed be spread outside of bars and NFL football games. My larger point is that Veldheer had a couple days' time outside the framework of following in-season NFL protocols before signing with Green Bay, so anything he did outside of what he had been up to the previous 4 months was a different risk. Agreed on his positive test being a result of an exposure prior to signing with the Packers - there wouldn't have been enough time for Veldheer to pick up COVID in WI and test positive the day after he arrived, even if he was licking discarded ICU faceshields to celebrate his signing Monday evening in Green Bay. I'm also hopeful it's a rapid test false positive result.

The fact they don't consider anyone within the Packers' organization to be a close contact is a good thing - hoping the next few days don't result in other positive tests among coaches/players that would otherwise be suiting up Saturday. I wonder what Veldheer was up to in that 2 day period between the Colts playoff loss and getting signed by GB on Monday....if there ever was a time for an NFL player to truly let his guard down with COVID protocols, it would likely be immediately after thinking their season was over with. That being said, he could just have easily gotten it from walking through a couple airports in NY and IN no matter how many masks he had on.

The way things are going there won't be a need for a better seasonal flu vaccine compared to what they've been doing...nobody, and I mean essentially nobody has it this winter. Goes to show how much more contagious COVID is when these distancing protocols all but squash influenza but are mixed at best trying to keep COVID from spreading on a community level wherever seasonal conditions are optimal for viral spread.

I feel like seasonal January temps actually give the Packers a much bigger advantage than if it were 10 below and blowing 30...brutally cold temps basically make it miserable for both teams and impact the ability of a passing game predicated on speed and timing. Game temps in the mid 20's is what the Packers are used to living in Green Bay during the season at this point, so they'll not even notice the temps - for the Rams it will be noticeable. I'd rather face this Rams defense in a cold weather game on grass to help even further slow their line's jump off the snap - which is exactly what will be the case on Saturday afternoon.

I thought early on that the Rams were the best team in the NFC West once San Fran's injuries mounted beyond the point of any NFL roster being able to manage, and that's proven to be true. They are capable of beating the Packers simply because their defense is capable of wrecking the offense for Green Bay if the Packers can't take advantage of matchups with pass catchers beyond Adams, which would make the game a tossup. I think Adams still gets his but doesn't have a huge day with Ramsey on him, but Tonyan, Lazard, and RBs out of the backfield could have a field day if the Oline plays well.

Pretty sure the only way to improve the current system is for the AFC south to add Alabama into their division. Its gotten to the point where their dominance is like the Wooden era was with college basketball at UCLA.

Sounds like you probably had it and recovered before they got it - potentially as an asymptomatic or incredibly mild symptomatic case. There's also the chance you just weren't symptomatic while your significant others were, as the rapid testing doesn't do a good job at detecting true asymptomatic cases (for a random group of 3 infected people it would be expected that at least 1 not be symptomatic based on testing results to date, anyway). I think the false negative rate for rapid testing on asymptomatic cases is very high - basically to the point where there's not much benefit in even taking that test instead of a PCR test. On the other hand, if your only primary direct exposure to someone who you knew had it was your toddler and a wayward Neosporin cap, and you did your best to maintain as many mitigation measures as possible to limit prolonged exposure from your wife - it's not surprising you didn't get infected from your toddler. Young children rarely have an immune system developed enough to carry a high enough viral load to infect adults. The only way to really tell at this point is to take a COVID antibody test, and even that has the potential to return a false negative if you had COVID long enough ago with limited/no immune system response.

After all the development, Wrigley renovations, property acquisitions to construct what is a total Cub fanboy gameday experience around their ballpark, etc., it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see the Cubs be the next MLB team to get sold. I think the Ricketts' ownership group financed a significant amount of construction/development costs based on revenues that just aren't going to be there until COVID is an afterthought, and they may need to sell in order to realize the franchise value gains all their efforts have created because they can't afford to maintain daily operations of that asset with how uncertain gameday revenues will continue to be over the next few seasons. They paid $900 Million for the Cubs, financed roughly $750M in wrigley renovation costs, and have spent/financed north of a billion more with real estate development groups on property surrounding the stadium. That's alot of $$ tossed around in a ~10 year period, much of it financed with debt. I think they're desperate to cut payroll and don't have a ton of concern for the overall management of the onfield product for 2021, because if they don't get their operating balance sheet looking better they're going to be forced to sell a club they were setting up to be a cornerstone of their family's assets. Don't get me wrong - they'd get much more for the Cubs than the overall sum of costs they've spent - it's just the timing of all of these operating cost bills coming due right when the self-sustaining gameday revenue they were expecting from pre-pandemic capacity crowds and stuffed surrounding bars/restaurants/attractions can't happen may have them overleveraged.

Sadly, I think it's most likely that Jones ends up playing for a team like Jax next year and his career kinda goes nowhere. Most careers go downhill after winning a Super Bowl since there's really nowhere to go but down.... Hopefully Jones finds a way to earn as much as he can when he can - one thing for sure is it's going to be an uncertain offseason.

Even at ~20% capacity, it's refreshing watching this Titan - Ravel playoff game with fans in the stands making a noticeable amount of noise...here's hoping next September we're debating whether stadiums should be 50% or packed on gameday

It's not just the draft capital the Bears gave up to land Mack, it's also the huge contract they had to give him in order to justify giving up that much draft capital so he stayed on the Bears' roster longterm that really hamstrung the organization. In reality it's a mix of that trade and their decision to move up in the draft to get Trubisky instead of Watson or Mahomes that has them in no-man's land. They tried to build a contender using the old Seahawk model of an expensive juggernaut defense coupled with a good QB on a rookie deal - they needed Trubisky to be their version of Russel Wilson and he just isn't that guy. Moving forward, the Bears still have question marks at QB and because of that they've had to continue throwing money at their defense to try and keep it elite - because the offensive improvement to offset talent loss on defense from cap problems just hasn't happened.

Lindor is currently set to become a free agent next November. Yep, right before a season that probably has a good chance of a 2022 strike/lockout - there are plenty of reasons the return for Lindor (or any marquee player set to become a free agent next offseason that will be looking for a huge deal) to be light this offseason.

I think there is also a big advantage this year's Packers team has with no or very few fans in stadiums, and it allows an experienced QB like Rodgers to dissect what the defense is doing AND effectively communicate that with the rest of the offense before the snap - One thing I think they've done a great job with this season is improving the tempo of getting plays called early and allows Rodgers to make adjustments at the line as needed and also tinker around with hard counts to keep the defensive line from getting good jumps off the ball. A good offensive line never having to worry about being slow off the ball due to crowd noise really helps keep Rodgers upright, too. In general, scoring is up a full two points per team per game compared to 2019 across the NFL - that is significant.