Fear The Chorizo

Shocked this game hasn't been pushed until this weekend - presuming the packers are already flying out there tonight, I really hope they do play given the 49er injury situation and how much it would suck to make the trip out there and not play on a short week.

If I recall correctly you work in schools too. Something that's popped in my head is wondering if schools will try to get to thanksgiving then shutdown til at least after New Year? Nobody has every told me that, just a scenario I've thought of in my head so I was curious if you or anyone else has heard that idea talked about? Assuming a downward trend doesn't start by then, that is. That is what a lot of colleges are already doing but the college break is longer. Not sure on elementary and high school. My hometown's school (small town in northwest WI) had to go all online recently because they couldnt get enough teachers. I am guessing this will be happening more and more. I think that's the hope, that in-person schooling can hang on as best it can for districts that are doing so until the holidays, then potentially shift to all elearning into early 2021 as conditions hopefully improve on the medical system strain and faculty/staff availability fronts - then they can transition back to in-person soon after the holiday break to get through the rest of the school year without further delays. It's possible adding a few weeks' time of across the board elearning will help districts transition school use to actually get more kids back in the classroom - specifically the district my kids are in has been full in person for K-3, and 4 day/week 4-8 grade, with highschoolers in person only 1 day / week since the high school space is being used by middle schoolers to spread the in-person kids and faculty out more. That's what they should be thinking, at least. Even during this fall's spike, there is tremendous pressure among larger districts that have been full elearning all fall in my area (i.e. MPLS/St. Paul) to start getting kids back in school in person - especially at the elementary school level. The staffing issue for teachers/faculty being exposed to COVID is real, but that exposure is largely occurring outside of the classroom - same as the teachers/faculty who are elearning only being exposed in the community. This fall spike isn't due to schools being in session, but it puts a lot of strain on them just the same. And let's be honest - elementary and middle school for December and January during non-pandemic years is pretty much a bunch of holiday programs and planning for holiday programs/activities anyways. I think our district already had just about 2 weeks of the calendar blocked off for a holiday break around Christmas and New Year's when this year started, so adding a week on the front or back end of that time to do all elearning should in theory get faculty/staff caseloads reset to much more manageable levels.

Gute plays chess while we play checkers...lol

Keke had a dead to rights shot at Cook for a 2yd loss and he whiffed, and there was nothing in the 2nd level behind it. Cook is going to make the 1st guy miss, but not having people in position behind to make the play is nuts in a game like this. MLBs look to be shooting gaps and if they guess wrong, they are getting gashed. that's a horrible DPI call there, too

Ready for this game to be ugly, and not nearly as confident as I should be because it looks like tomorrow is going to be windy as hell. Will be tough to take advantage of a bad secondary tomorrow...weather will be a factor for sure

As for that 2003 playoff game...the Packers did look like a SB team that year. A dominant rushing attack, a very solid defense. They got the ball in OT, they'd run for 220 or however many yards and they come out and throw a ridiculous pick the first play of OT...that one hurt as bad as just about any loss since I've been a Packers fan. What sticks in my craw the most from that game is the fact that after their first two possessions it was 14-0 and they pretty much turtled the rest of the game offensively instead of staying aggressive, when they could have probably blown the Eagles out of the building. I think they also got stuffed on a 4th and goal or 4th and short at the end of the 1st half - where a FG or any points probably wins them that game without it even going to OT even after that 4th and 26 play late in regulation.

Yeah, they've actually been a team I've been rooting for to bank as many wins as possible early, in hopes they find a way into the playoffs and keep a much better team in the NFC west out of it. Their QB situation makes it impossible to worry about them even though their defense is pretty good. If they don't generate a bunch of turnovers on the defensive side of the ball, they aren't good enough to beat solid teams - especially in a playoff game.

I recall Sherman started with the Packers as the HC only for at least 1-2 years, and quickly got back to winning after the last talent infusion from some Ron Wolf drafts and a Favre resurgence....then he was handed the reigns to being GM and promptly started drafting corners that fought each other better than they could cover and thinned out what looked like a deep and talented roster in a very short time. Basically he GM'd himself out of a coaching job in 3 years' time because he was awful at GM during that 3-4 year stretch and gave himself a poor roster around Favre. Him and Bill Obrien actually have a ton in common in that regard...it wasn't even the drafting, it was mainly poor personnel decisions with contracts IIRC I still feel like that Packers team that got knocked out of the playoffs with that 4th and 26 at Philly debacle was headed to the Super Bowl - Ahman Green was a stud that year and they had a fantastic offensive line with a pretty solid defense to go along with it.

Chiefs, Steelers and Titans are the top 3 right now. The Titans have just 1 close loss to the Steelers but 4 of their wins have come by a total of 12 points against the likes of the Texans, Jags, Vikes, and Broncos....those four teams have a total of 5 wins between them 7 weeks into the season. Chiefs and Steelers are the top of the AFC, but the Titans aren't - I'd put Baltimore well ahead of the Titans at this point because the Titans' D has taken a big step back from last year. And despite there being some godawful NFC teams, particularly in the East division, I think the NFC is better/deeper overall at the top than the AFC is (although the Chiefs would probably still be my pick to win it all if I had to choose just 1 team at this point). The NFC also has the dynamic of one division with 4 deserving playoff teams (West) and one with no deserving playoff teams (East). So in all likelihood, at least one and probably two good teams from the NFC west won't make the playoffs because of how their schedule will skew tougher. In no particular order, the Saints/Buccaneers/Packers/Seahawks/Rams/49ers/Bears/Cardinals are a pretty solid top 8 teams in the NFC. Going 8 deep in the AFC winds up including teams like the Colts, Raiders, and Browns.

Check...nice half following last week's clunker

There won't be an influx of cash coming from late fall/early winter season ticket sales for the 2021 season to close out the year, that's for darn sure. Estimated values for what an organization is worth if it is sold right now means nothing when it comes to their player payroll capacity. By all accounts the Brewers set a revenue record for their franchise in 2019 as an organization and lost money on their operating balance sheet.

In this clip, Cecil honestly looks like he'd be lucky to be 185# dripping wet with his pads on knowing how short he is...He looks like a highschooler compared to players today, even just comparing the safety position. Guys that size in today's NFL run sub 4.4 40s to even have a shot at being on a roster where there's skill position speed everywhere and pass-heavy offenses. Cecil ran a 4.77. The era Cecil played in gave him the ability to have a 7 yr NFL career as a heady safety, where he had limited reads to make and much less field to cover - that enabled him to be a really good player until his body and father time forced him out of the league. If he was born a generation later he would have been lucky to get a D1 scholarship offer from somewhere.

It will be interesting to see just how bad of a record the eventual NFC east champ has - within their division they are all about equal, meaning they will likely beat up on each other and there won't be a team that pads their record with 5 or 6 interdivision W's. Outside their division they are all equally awful and have a solid shot at losing most all of their games. I think the Eagles have the best chance at finishing with 8ish wins even with a tie already on their record, but if they falter the division champ may wind up being a 7 or even 6 win team. Having an entire division be that pathetic in today's NFL is incredibly difficult to do. The fact all 4 teams are traditionally among the league's most popular based on organizational history and markets they play in is even more perfect.

This is an 'us' problem, unfortunately. The countries like Japan and New Zealand that have basically squashed the virus all had robust, dynamic contract tracing protocols. If only the US was an isolated stretch of islands next to nobody routinely traveled to for commerce like New Zealand to give contact tracing a realistic chance. More people live in WI than in all of New Zealand and the state is roughly 1/2 the land size of a country bordered by nothing but water. And even with that contact tracing wasn't the reason their numbers have remained low until this point - they just pretty much closed their country down for months and really don't have a good way of reopening things to the rest of the world despite being reliant on them for tourism, which drives their economic existence as a country. They're in the midst of their worst 3Q GDP decline since tracking started in the mid 1980s. Japan didn't have dynamic contact tracing protocols - they attempted to do so on the people who were most impacted early on and had some success with that in the spring, but since then they've just dealt with asymptomatic community transmission without even chasing after it via testing because they just didn't have that many people display significant symptomatic responses to the virus. MN has tested more people than Japan.

Amos' strength is his reliability on the back end - he's not a game-changing playmaker at the safety position. Put him at the back end of a defensive front 7 that has dominant playmakers (ala Bears 2018), and he looks better than he is. Put him at the back end of a defensive front 7 that at times gets pushed around and isn't making plays in the backfield (this Packers' D on occasion), and he looks average simply because he's not going to blow up plays on his own. He reminds me alot of Morgan Burnett in that regard. Amos would be a great compliment to an uber athletic safety who makes plays all over the field, like Eddie Jackson in 2018 - something Packers' brass have to be hoping Savage is as a player. Nagging injuries and inconsistency have kept Savage from being that kind of guy thus far.

Generally agreed, but there's also the tradeoff to prolonged societal shutdowns in western economies that ultimately lead to health and poverty crises in developing countries dependant on those economic engines. Even after a vaccine that gets the US and European countries somewhat back to a sense of normalcy, the prolonged fallout will largely impact many of the same vulnerable groups of people, particularly the impoverished. That has to be taken into account when weighing how restrictive public activity is when there really is no established finish line we know will be the end of COVID as issue #1. The global strife and conflict resulting from COVID response to date will be terrible over the next few years, and it will have little to do with the health effects of the virus itself and much more to do with the unavoidable economic hardships it brought to the world. That is why some in the WHO are adamant about not using lockdowns indefinitely until developed nations feel comfy to go out and get drunk at a bar after 100k of them catch a soccer match in a stadium. They are concerned about the modest progress made in overall health of developing countries being completely ruined for more than half the world's population who rarely know where their next meal is going to come from - particularly in areas that are already overpopulated and malnourished.

Granted, it was a small segment of plays, but the start of the 2nd quarter the Packers sure seemed to go completely away from the run and then almost acted like because Rodgers threw 2 picks basically in a row that they had to keep a pass-heavy approach to try and make the point they could still move the ball through the air - then the game got completely away from them and they were essentially forced to remain pass-heavy and predictable the rest of the game against a quality defense that can play fast and aggressive against 1 dimension. Tampa Bay has a solid run D, but there was no reason to just abandon the run game early in the 2nd quarter because of a couple INTs - GB actually gashed them a few times early in the run game and then just abandoned it. Went back and looked at it - the pick 6 series was three straight passes. The next series was a swing pass to Jones, followed by a stretch run that had no chance because David was unblocked, then the Adams slant that was picked. Then the next series after getting down 14-10 due to those INTs, another 3 and out with 3 passes. (overturned big pass play to Jones was in there). TB goes on their 1st long TD drive to go up 21-10. Next Packer series, 7 yard jones run, incomplete deep pass, big sack on another pass play. Tampa Bay then swiss cheeses the Packers' D for another TD. End of half drive for the Packers was all passes mainly due to time...but in total the Packers ran the ball only twice in the entire 2nd quarter, despite having FIVE freaking possessions. GB's offense has been great up until yesterday because of how balanced they have been, and that has also helped their Oline. Rodgers got put on the ground and harassed much more yesterday than he has in total for their initial 4 games, and that pressure seemed to throw off both Rodgers as a passer AND MLF as a playcaller by going away from what they've excelled at with balance and quick hitting misdirection plays.

This game at the start of the second quarter feels alot like the chargers game last year...Rodgers harassed constantly by a defensive front 7 that can play in the offensive backfield and the Packers have no ability to counterpunch to get the defense back on their heels, and these games never feel winnable once they go in this direction. Even when the packers were moving the ball at the start of this game, Rodgers was getting hit alot - that took him off his game and turned the game on its ear.

What kind of defenses will we see in the playoffs? Well, there probably isn't another defense in the NFC with close to the speed Tampa's has - they are probably the best collective defensive unit in the conference. GB was going up and down the field on them until that poor pick 6 throw and a slant into traffic to basically gift TB 14 points. There will be struggles from time to time, but it's really a tale of a terrible 1/2 quarter of football, primarily from #12. Really need to keep them out of the end zone here.

has the feeling of 'one of those days', but there's a ton of game left. 1st game all season where Rodgers is being harassed in the pocket routinely, and it shows - really think they need to line up and run the damn ball. Could use a defensive stop before the half here and to start Q3 to keep this a game

Why is the viral load dropping? This happens with many viruses as they mutate/evolve in order to survive - they essentially become more contagious but wind up causing less severe symptomatic responses/death. I recall reading something in Houston indicating that's what they were seeing with the virus during their big spike as well. It's likely the main reason why New York still has over 2X the COVID-related deaths in the US compared to any other state even though states like CA, TX, and FL now have had many more confirmed cases (aside from the fact we've mostly stopped intentionally sending infected patients into nursing homes to recover). NY had it's initial major outbreak occur with the virus when it was causing higher viral loads in infected people, leading to a higher percentage of worse outcomes. Another thing that I wish would be better understood is how high the US' PCR testing cycle threshold is compared to that of other countries - many US labs have cycle thresholds in the upper 30's or even 40, while countries like Germany and Korea normally cut off their PCR testing after 32 cycles. More cycles leads to more positive COVID tests based on dead virus RNA fragments from a previous unknown infection that aren't capable of transmission/infection - along with false positives simply due to equipment sensitivity and lab contamination issues. Because of that, simply comparing confirmed cases between many countries becomes apples-oranges. I saw that Johnson & Johnson just had to pause their vaccine trial to sort out an unexplained illness in a participant - I think the biggest problem big pharma is going to have with a COVID-19 vaccine is that by the time it's approved and ready for widespread distribution, it's not going to have the impact of preventing infection to the point of satisfying people who are looking to stop the virus' spread by a one-time vaccine alone. There is too much evidence that indicates COVID antibodies don't remain indefinitely, meaning a COVID vaccine will need to be seasonally or routinely administered - and people around the world will continue getting infected with COVID even if there are widespread vaccinations. If that's the case and we are dealing with a virus that is already at a diminished potency based on mutations and expected evolution, a vaccine becomes less effective overall. A safe vaccine will help attain herd immunity faster than not having one at all - but then again the term 'herd immunity' doesn't mean infections and occasional death with COVID will stop. Herd immunity is essentially a point where the potential for exponential/uncontrolled virus spread doesn't happen - It's encouraging that the case spikes across the US this summer and fall have not come close to resulting in the number of severe hospitalizations/deaths that would have been projected based on what happened in the northeast US in March-April. For example if you look at the flu year in/year out, one could say the US, which has reasonably high percentage of its population that gets vaccinated has herd immunity any given winter - but seasonal flu deaths still range from ~15K-50K any given year depending on many factors. Could we lower that number each winter by always taking the measures currently in place for COVID? Sure, but we wouldn't have a society anymore and everyone would eventually go insane - that's the point of people in the WHO currently saying lockdowns and intentional economic/societal shutdowns can't be the indefinite answer until a vaccine shows up. With regard to the whole 85% of people who get infected always wear mask...honestly I think I see more than 85+% of people with masks on in public indoor spaces where I live, so I'm not surprised by that number at all - masks don't prevent you from getting infected with the virus, they help prevent people who already have the virus from being superspreaders out in public IF they properly wear one. Even without superspreaders, infections will inevitably happen - wearing a piece of fabric that would've been destined for the Tshirt factory last fall isn't going to prevent COVID transmission for whoever's wearing it if there are COVID particles in the air they are breathing.

Another thing I was thinking when it looked like SEA would lose. With no fans would GB really even want homefield in the playoffs and have to play in that cold? My gut went to as long as there was no or very few (like say 5k) fans in Seattle/SF/LA or wherever I think I'd rather play the game in better weather. Problem of course is we have no idea what fan rules will be like 3-4 months from now. Agreed - especially because I think it's likely at some point the NFL season is going to need to take a 2-3 week break in the schedule to reset positive case counts across the league, which would push playoffs well into January/February. I'd be totally fine with the Packers playing road playoff games in comfortable climate stadiums - which would be virtually anywhere compared to Lambeau in January. There won't be full stadiums anywhere 3-4 months from now - I could see 50% capacity in places, but not max crowds that create a true homefield advantage.

Spending valuable draft capital on a #2 WR on a team who's game plan every week is to ram Cook and Mattison into the line 40 times seems like a waste to me. Cook has shown that if he's part of a game plan that makes him a bellcow back and he gets a ton of touches, he's going to get banged up and injured. He's fantastic when he isn't overused, so it's key MN has the balance throwing the ball, too. Jefferson looks the part of a frontline NFL receiver once he develops, so I don't fault the Vikings for picking him instead of trying to draft based on perceived need 2/3 of the way into Round 1. The Vikings' biggest problem is they can't figure out how to put together a decent offensive line that can pass block. They've spent high draft picks, overpaid in free agency, tried it all - and it never seems to work. Specific to the Vikes' cap situation and cap forecasts based on league revenue issues due to COVID, it's going to be even worse. IIRC, the NFL and players association agreed to a flat cap in 2021 with a floor of $175 million in effort to spread out revenue losses over the next 3 seasons. You can pretty much book next year's cap will at or closer to the $175 million floor due to revenue limitations of this season, which puts teams hovering around negative cap space or with limited cap carryover budget based on this season's $198 million in even worse straits. Had they not done that, next year's cap would have likely been closer to $130 million.

Seahawks are no juggernaut, I actually think the Rams are the best team in that division this year. San Fran is too injured and the Seahawks aren't a very good defensive team - the Russel Wilson show always gives them a shot, though. Just so you know, the way the playoffs are structured this year with adding a 7th team in each conference, only the #1 seed in each conference gets a 1st round bye.

Analytics says they made the right call based on the percentage of converting a 4th and short alone...not that I agree with analytics at that stage of the game I get the analytics, but you have a chance to go up 8... I'm with you 100%