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Harold Hutchison

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Everything posted by Harold Hutchison

  1. Harold Hutchison
    The subject speaks volumes, but I want to add some sub-categories: 1. What is the one thing you want to see the Brewers do in the 2018 season? To be willing to take a step back in order to be a much better team over the long haul by giving the young/youngish players the ABs and reps needed to adjust to major-league baseball. 2. What do you want the Brewers to do during the 2018 season with an eye towards the future (2019-2025)? I want to see the Brewers give Brent Suter, Josh Hader, and Brandon Woodruff spend a full season in the starting rotation. If these three can hold down the spots behind Chase Anderson and Zach Davies, this presents a lot of very favorable options. If not, the Crew can give youngsters like Ortiz, Burnes, Perrin, and Derby a shot in 2019. Developing young players like Brett Phillips, Suter, Hader, Taylor Williams, Woodruff, and Lewis Brinson to see if they can be part of the major-league team for the long haul is just as important. Sign all draft picks in a given year. Even if the team has to go over cap, just get them signed. Throw huge money at the farm system and scouting departments to get the best talent possible in the farm system.
  2. Harold Hutchison
    Anderson, Davies, Suter, Woodruff, Hader Jungmann as the long relief/emergency starter. Burnes/Derby as the call-ups for injury.
  3. Harold Hutchison
    The thing is, the odds of those players actually succeeding as we hope is low. I think even Suter is destined to come down a bit, but I digress. There is a finite amount of $ that we can put into scouting/development before returns do not grow proportionally and...where do you spend the money then on the roster if not at pitcher? The bullpen? You are going to overpay bullpen or a 2B to come in if you want to get a good player. Matt Garza did that last year for $12 million and the payroll was still only $65 million. At a certain point you have the choice to roll with AAAA players at a position or spend money. We're not going to raise a banner for "$60 million payroll that won 84 games" in 2019. Maybe you can use some of it for signing amatuer draftees, like a prep-school talent who slips due to signability questions. Imagine being able to offer Gage Workman (14th-round pick) enough money to sign - or some of the other high-level talent that passed on signing. If you can't sign the picks, your farm system goes downhill. Hence, I'd still take a chance with Suter over a free agent. Who knows? If he does do well, maybe instead a pitcher becomes a trade chip. Maybe they flop, maybe they succeed. But I'd rather be developing a lot of starters, because the more you develop, the better the chance you find that diamond in the rough.
  4. Harold Hutchison
    I disagree to some extent. A Ponce/Perrin/Suter/Jungmann/Woodruff/Fiers/Estrada is still valuable for the Brewers. In 2017, Matt Garza was paid $12 million or so for an ERA in the high fours. Get that down to $750,000 or so for a 4.75 ERA, and that frees up $10 million for farm system, scouting, additional coaching, or free agents at other areas of need. But if you get a guy like Suter, delivering a 3.42 ERA as he did in 2017... or Jungmann re-discovers his 2015 form (3.77 ERA), that becomes a huge boost. Right now, Brent Suter and Brandon Woodruff are the two biggest bargains in the 2018 Brewers' starting rotation. If the Crew can keep Angel Ventura in the fold and Bubba Derby, plus Corbin Burnes and Luis Ortiz... they don't need to hit the free agent market for a borderline pitcher.
  5. Harold Hutchison
    You don't bank on any one prospect, at least while they are in the low minors. We have 2 high quality options with Diaz/Hiura at future 2b...that's better than our farm position at 3b, 1b, and actually SS as well. Let these guys battle it out in 2018 and their performance dictate which is the better prospect. I agree. Or, you move them both around so you have options as to where they can play. Have Diaz play third, second, short, outfield. Do the same with Hiura. That way, you may be able to keep both. Win-win.
  6. Harold Hutchison
    I don't mind it. But the stats are about 99% of what I have. Sometimes, they have a big payoff. Other times, not.
  7. Harold Hutchison
    Maybe if Nelson were healthy keeping Hader in the pen would be a fine idea. But Hader has the chance to be the next Chris Sale, a premier LH starter who first made his mark in the pen on a team and franchise that's almost completely devoid of LH pitching. It's a lot more cost effective to add one or two quality LH relievers than overpay for a FA starter from a crop that's not all that impressive. I think Nelson's injury makes it worth trying Hader in the rotation, especially if the Crew re-signs Swarzak. If Swarzak walks, though, then Hader will be needed in the pen. If Hader does well, awesome. The Crew has options for the rotation (one of Woodruff/Davies could become trade bait). If he struggles, then move him back to the pen.
  8. Harold Hutchison
    A lot depends on how he recovers from the hamate injury. Diaz has very good OBP skills (62 walks in 383 ABs), and he has power (33 XBH in 383 ABs at Carolina), and he demonstrate those while young for the Carolina League. I still am very high on him, with my concerns more around the hamate as opposed to talent/tools. IIRC, Brad Nelson broke his hamate, and wasn't quite the same afterwards. His offensive skillset seems superior to Dubon's - and his OBP skills and power seem to be way ahead of Keston Hiura's. I think the future is very bright for him. He could be a starter at second base, a starter at shortstop, or a Perez-esque supersub/bench cornerstone. I'm not knocking Hiura. Hiura's numbers point to him being an Ichiro minus the speed, and with a lot more strikeouts. If Diaz can return to his 2016 form, then the Brewers have a lot of options. He would allows them to NOT rush Hiura and to properly develop Hiura's OBP skills. In Wisconsin, Hiura had 7 BB in 105 ABs, a rate much lower than the 6 in 62 ABs he had in Arizona. He also struck out 37 times in 167 ABs. His power also dropped noticably in the jump from R- to full-season A (all four of his HR and 5 of his seven 3B came in Arizona).
  9. Harold Hutchison
    Diaz with a broken hamate bone? Didn't that derail Brad Nelson?
  10. Harold Hutchison
    That's why I'd be looking at moving someone like Jungmann, Guerra, or Wilkerson. Miami needs some MLB starters, and the Crew does have a slight surplus of folks who if nothing else, will be cheaper than guys who posted 6+ ERAs. Matt Garza would have been a huge improvement for the Marlins. If the Crew takes Gordon's whole salary, then I don't want to offer more than Jungmann, Guerra, or Wilkerson or a package of two of them. Now, I'd go Woodruff/Thames for a Gordon/Bour package that included one or two top 30 prospects from their system.
  11. Harold Hutchison
    Agree that Santana and Davies are two to extend, if possible. Maybe Nelson as well, even with the injury. Arcia, I want to wait a year or two. I've been unsure of his bat ever since he posted a .723 OPS at Colorado Springs. That's just a red flag. If the offense improves, sure. If not... I'd go year-to-year. Perez... I see his versatility, power, and speed as a cornerstone on the bench. The fact that his OBP is batting average-dependent is probably what keeps him on the bench, but still, he is a relatively known quantity.
  12. Harold Hutchison
    Really? Must've been when I wasn't watching. I didn't say great, I said good. He's posted a .421 SLG over the last two seasons, added to 47 stolen bases and a .266 batting average. His OBP skills are not good, but he's got some pop, and he plays every position except catcher. Not a starter, but a cornerstone of the bench.
  13. Harold Hutchison
    My four locks would be: Orf, Peralta, Nottingham, Wilkerson Dubon and Diplan don't have the production that would lead a MLB team to take them over the course of a 162-game season.
  14. Harold Hutchison
    My thinking is they want a starting pitcher at least. Two of their starters were so bad, Matt Garza would be a huge improvement. This does open the door to a Guerra/Wilkerson package, IMO. The Crew could take on all salary, and thus get Gordon without giving up a big prospect. Part of me is tempted to go big, offer Woodruff/Jungmann/Thames for Gordon (at full salary), Justin Bour, a top 30 prospect or two as well (say Albert Guaimaro and Trevor Richards).
  15. Harold Hutchison
    I'll put Hernan Perez out there for an extension. Versatile - plays eight of the nine positions on the diamond. Good offensive production - flashed speed in 2016, and power this year. He's only 26, so maybe he could be had for six years, $30 million ($3 million bonus, $4 million/year for 2018, 2019, and 2020 and $5 million/year for 2021, 2022, and 2023). It seems a lot, but Perez is arguably the cornerstone of the bench. If he flops, $5 million a year is not going to kill the team. But it is valuable insurance.
  16. Harold Hutchison
    I think he was placed too aggressively, and that has hurt him a bit. I think he should have had a season at the DSL, then to Rookie-level ball, and just work him up slowly. Can he turn it around? It's possible. Am I banking on it? At this point... I can't be sure. There are other prospects who have eclipsed Lara, and who are producing. When he was signed, I had him at #2, but as the struggles continued... I can't speak for his attitude or if he is overmatched. But the numbers just haven't been there. Arcia showed more in the minors at younger ages and at higher levels. Now, he's injured. At this point, if he recovers and goes on a hot streak, I'm not above seeing if he can be dealt, and salvage something from the bonus. It may be he needs a change of scenery.
  17. Harold Hutchison
    Considering many experts pegged this Brewers team as having a rebuilding year, I'll take the 86 wins and second plane. Yes, the blown lead hurts, but overall, this season exceeded expectations.
  18. Harold Hutchison
    Anderson will probably be around for three years, and dealt. With the way Burnes, Perrin, and Yamamoto are pitching (especially the track records of Burnes and Perrin), I foresee some significant turnover in the rotation.
  19. Harold Hutchison
    Assume these starters: c: Pina 1b: Thames/Aguilar 2b: Walker ss: Arcia 3b: Shaw lf: Braun cf: Phillips/Brinson rf: Santana Then assume Vogt, Brinson/Phillips, Aguilar/Thames, Perez, Sogard, and Villar on the bench. It means a rotation of five (Anderson, Davies, Suter, Woodruff, Jungmann) and a bullpen of six (Knebel, Swarzak, Jeffress, Hader, Barnes, Hughes), but I'd take that 25-man any time.
  20. Harold Hutchison
    1. The history of the Brewers has been one where injuries to key players derail promising seasons. In 1989, it was Molitor getting hurt early on, and the Brewers had Gus Polidor playing third - a guy who couldn't crack the Uecker line in a good year. One reason the Crew got so close in 2017 was they had the depth to take over when someone got hurt. It's about depth. 2. The jump from AAA to the majors is a big one. I think Orf could be Sogard 2.0, but keep in mind, Orf was in Colorado Springs half the time. His walk rate throughout his minor-league career points to him having the OBP skills and versatility to replace Sogard in 2019, but how did Colorado Springs play into those 2017 numbers? 3. Dubon, OTOH, has speed, but his Colorado Springs numbers raise a few red flags. He may well replace Villar if Villar doesn't turn it around in 2018-2019, but his ceiling seems low to me as a backup IF with speed. 4. Sogard came on as a minor-league contract with an invite. He performed well. It benefits the Brewers in the long run to reward those players who perform well in that situation. One, more of those players will be willing to sign with the Crew, and if they work as well as Sogard, Pina, and Perez do, they are cheap assets for the team. Two, such players are denied to the Cubs and Cardinals. Three, those that don't make the club out of spring training will be solid depth at AAA.
  21. Harold Hutchison
    The hope has to be that the Cards get humiliated by the Crew in 2018, they do a clean sweep, and Maddux can get a good pitching coach job. Preferably in the American League.
  22. Harold Hutchison
    How about actually making a pitcher/hitter combo work? Have we forgotten Brooks "Toolshed" Kieschnick already? That is what Milwaukee can offer Ohtani. He can pitch, but also be a PH, DH, or part-time 1B/OF - and the Brewers, in the words of Tim Gunn, have proven they can "make it work."
  23. Harold Hutchison
    Indeed, it does. With a track record like that, it does make Milwaukee a place six-year minor-league FAs would consider going to.
  24. Harold Hutchison
    I think all three on the bench is an excellent outcome. Perez is a bit of a power bat off the bench with some speed, and can play eight positions (all but catcher). Villar is versatile and fast. Sogard brings OBP skills at three IF positions. If the Crew could get Walker on a deal structured like Chase Anderson's (two guaranteed years, two team options), this is a bench to ride with when you add the other half of the Phillips/Brinson, Thames/Aguilar, and Pina/Vogt platoons. If the starters are healthy, the Crew has loads of options for extra innings, etc. If someone gets hurt, people are there to step in. I mentioned the "Bench Mob" the Bulls had earlier this decade. I think the Brewers have MLB's equivalent, and that helped fuel an 86-win season.
  25. Harold Hutchison
    Demi's got the tools. Meideros has the tools. But they can't translate them into performance out on the field. The raw tools don't do much good if they cannot be applied to get results on the field. Suter may not have the tools of Meideros, but he's clearly been able to translate what he has into a solid contributor to the starting rotation of a major league club. Troy Stokes is clearly able to apply his tools to get results on the field, and in fact, may have improved one of them. Demi is clearly struggling in that regard.
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