Harold Hutchison

Who else does the Crew have?

Well, Davis may only be able to go six. They gotta push Brooks in for three.

gregmag Even if they are low-level starters, it helps in two ways: 1. Trade fodder. 2. They can fill long relief spots in the pen. Having a few guys who could go three can make life easier for the starters.

I've got a nephew - and while I never had the skill to PLAY baseball, I did seem to do okay on the pitching side (never was good enough to go out for the team. He's about four to six years from Little League, so I am following this (I figure planning ahead would be a good idea) topic with interest. Are there any thoughts on teaching a young pitcher the knuckleball? Also, what surprises me is what is said about the split-finger. My understanding is that it is thrown like a NORMAL fastball, but with the fingers split. I'm surprised that it is supposedly putting more strain on a pitcher's arm.

bullox Maybe a little "chin music" from a Stars pitcher might be in order the next time an opposing pitcher plunks Rickie... Pour encourager les autres.

endaround Yost pushed Obermueller an inning too far. Had he yanked Wes after six, it's 4 runs in 6 IP - not the best start, but one that would have been good enough. Instead, Bennett came in starting with a jam (two on, no out). This one is Ned's fault.

Anyone know why JJ came out? I hope he's not hurt...

Dhonks First job: Get Capuano healthy. Second item: Call Saenz up ASAP. He's already done decently, so let's keep him out there. Wes did okay - Ned pushed him an inning too far this time. And I don't think Bennett was too bad, either. Not his fault that the team's defense screwed up three times in the seventh. That gives the Crew four starters: Sheets, Davis, Capuano, Sanez - Obermueller might be okay - but for about five-six innings. Piggybacking Santos with him should do the job. The bullpen: Kolb, Vizcaino, Bennett, Burba, and Kieschnick are doing okay. Kinney needs to go, on the other hand. As for Adrian Hernandez and Ben Ford, it might be time to really shorten the leash.

Hank Aarons Shoes That is something that matters, IMHO. And it does not show up anywhere in the stats... except for the won-loss record.

JohnBriggs12 I'm with you on that. And while they're at it... do you think they could get some artificial turf at Miller Park? *dons asbestos suit*

The way I see it... Stick Santos in the rotation as the 5 starter and call up Saenz. Skip Santos as often as possible, and hope Capuano can get back soon. That should be a good enough band-aid for the year. Next year, Hendrickson can take over.

gregmag Maybe he adjusted to AA hitters. Then again, Housman is only 22. I think he's going to turn out okay - maybe not a top of the rotation starter, but a solid #3 or #4 guy. Or he could be a great reliever out of the pen.

How many times has Rickie been plunked - it's alreayd May 4. Is he trying to set a record?

Cool. Slugfest. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/happy.gif

whizkid Wes Obermueller could be the next David Weathers. Good sinker, lots of ground balls... and if he only goes two innings, he won't have to face the order more than once... probably not even the entire order.

gregmag No, I want to keep things in perspective. If you have some magic stat that can tell me whether a pitcher can get out of a jam or how consistent he is, please post the thing. As it stands, I have cited some of the factors that led me to favor Franklin over Kinney. One of the key factors had been the club's performance. Another was the type of home runs each gave up. I note, with some regret, that Kinney's collapse is just what I predicted. Maybe TWO good starts out of his five. He's already gotten a hook from the rotation. How much longer until he blows leads from the bullpen? You want to flame at me, go ahead. But stats alone WILL NOT tell the tale. I admit to prejudice - in favor of the Brewers winning games. I'm willing to say what I think ought to be done, and if some stathead takes it the wrong way because I don't think sabremetrics and other stuff are the end-all and be-all of baseball, I'm not going to consider it my problem any longer - and when statheads keep suggesting a pitcher who seems like he'll fall apart, I'll say so.

RobertR I would agree. As I just posted, I might not have been clearer in earlier posts. I don't think that statistics tell the whole story about pitchers. Ideally, a pitcher doesn't get into jams. But this is NOT an ideal world. Pitchers DO get into jams. And the stats at baseball-reference.com don't tell me anything about how a pitcher dealt with jams. Nor do they tell me how consistent a pitcher has been. Which stats tell me that? Inning summaries (or even pitch-by-pitch reports) and logs that give the line for each start (or appearance) can give me an idea of that.

RoCoBrewfan The points I'm making with Doug Davis are the same ones I've made in that other debate: The season statistics do not tell the whole story. The stats don't tell me if a pitcher can get out of a jam (and that IS going to happen to pitchers on occaison). I think that someone looking over each game's inning-by-inning summary to determine that. The career stats (or stats over a season) don't give me an idea about how consistent a pitcher is. Examining the game logs (looking at the pitcher's line in each game) does that. The problem is that you STOPPED at season/career stats. I broke things down further. I looked at each of the lines posted by both pitchers. I looked at the coverage of the games, and used that to put the stats into perspective. Maybe I should have explained my views on selecting starting pitchers (and pitchers in general) more clearly at first. But my opinion is that the 2003 statsistic did not tell the whole tale about either Wayne Franklin OR Matt Kinney. I similarly believe that the season statistics have not told the full tale about Doug Davis.

RoCoBrewfan Look, you might want to talk stuff and strikeouts per nine innings. Fine, that's your perogative. But that doesn't mean a pitcher is going to win. I prefer to look at the big picture (or as much as I can, being in the DC area). That means not just looking at the season line, but ALSO looking at the game logs and the box scores - trying to see what the deal is. In the case of Doug Davis, there is one bad outing - an outing that is atypical when compared to the rest. The sample is going to get bigger. In the Franklin-Kinney debate, I saw two guys who got themselves into trouble. Niether would be an ideal candidate for the rotation, but those two are what the Brewers have to work with until pitchers like Hendrickson were ready for the big leagues. I felt that if the Brewers had to choose one of them, I'd take Franklin, citing the team's performance in the games he pitched, and the fact while he walked a lot of hitters and gave up a bunch of home runs, he seemed to have the resilience to bounce back and NOT let trouble snowball into a big inning. The series at San Francisco is an example of that contrast. I got called a troll for that. But it bore out my points. Kinney let trouble snowball into a big inning in a game the Brewers ultimately lost. Wayne Franklin gave up a hit and a walk, but got OUT of the trouble he got himself into without allowing a single run to score. So he gives up home runs, walks a lot of hitters, and has a high ERA. The "secondary numbers" don't look good. But the team wins. And wins are what cound in the standings, not WHIP, not K/9IP, not the K/BB ratio. gregmag Part of your point is addressed above. Allow me to elaborate a little on something else. Ideally, pitchers should not get themselves into jams. That said, HOW a pitcher handles a jam is as important as his stuff. A pitcher who strikes out 12 batters per nine innings but folds up if a couple of runners get on base is less valuable to a team than a pitcher who strikes out 6 batters per nine innings, but who gets out of jams. The statistics do not tell me whether a pitcher can do that. What will tell me that is looking over the inning-by-inning reports of each game. The full-year stats do not tell me how valuable a pitcher is. The pitcher who has a 4.60 ERA over a full season might be the type who might be dominating in one start, mediocre the next time out, okay in the third, gets hammered int he fourth, then mediorce, you get the idea. He's either VERY good, or VERY bad. The one with the 5.00 ERA might usually churn out a lot of quality starts with a lot less variation (6-7 IP, 2-3 runs). Or he might usually just miss a quality start (say, 7 IP, 4 earned runs). But there are three or four starts where he gets clobbered as compared to one or two where he is lights-out, and that inflates his ERA. How do I find that out? I look at the game logs, which give a summary of how a pitcher did in each outing, and I can take that into account as well. I want to look at the complete picture of a pitcher. That means looking BEYOND the stats, and seeing what the deal is. I don't know if this is going to change anybody's mind. I really don't care. But I'm going to lay out what I'm thinking - and let some folks decide whether or not I might have a point. Based on how things have gone so far, I think I might have a decent approach. Just look who's got a 3.27 ERA and has allowed only ONE home run in 11 innings of work (admittedly as a reliever)... Yep, it's Wayne Franklin.

BlazinWings The Kiss of Death What exactly is Matt Kinneys' ERA? Let's comapre that to the ERAs this year of Doug Davis and Wayne Franklin. Ideally, a pitcher does NOT get into jams. But if I'm stuck with having pitchers who get into jams, I'd prefer to have ones who can pitch their way out of jams more often than not (see Doug Davis) than folks who let the jams snowball into big innings more often than not (see Matt Kinney). With the exception of his April 11 start (6 runs allowed in 4.1 IP), Doug Davis has a 4.10 ERA. That would place him third behind Sheets and Capuano. He's gone 24.1 innings without allowing a home run. Three of his last four starts are quality starts. The 5.14 ERA Doug Davis currently has is due to one (1) start that has all the appearances of being a single BLIP on the radar screen. Other than that start, he's been just behind the performances of Ben Sheets and Chris Capuano. Yeah, let's run Doug Davis out of Milwaukee... he's no good. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/eyes.gif

RoCoBrewfan It's an imperfect world. Doug Davis might get into jams, but he pitches out of them more often than not.

danzig6767 But eventually, I see him as sort of a left-handed Dave Burba.

Shame to see a good star by Doug Davis put to waste. Seriously, he's going to be fine this year.

The best promotions seem to come from the minor leagues...

rluzinski Well, he gets on base. And it does take away the inside corner of the plate from the more timid pitchers