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Harold Hutchison

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Everything posted by Harold Hutchison

  1. Harold Hutchison
    There are a lot of HOFers with this profile, yet even Altuve hit 30 home runs last year. Rod Carew, Wade Boggs and Tony Gwynn are relics of a bygone era... And when everyone chases the 3TO-type players, the value buys will be the Carew/Gwynn/Boggs profiles... and the "relics" will be the new Moneyball.
  2. Harold Hutchison
    Exactly. We just don't know. I don't expect that, but it doesn't mean it can't happen. Looking over the last three years - Sogard posted a .744 OPS, including a .352 OBP. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sogarer01.shtml#2017-2019-sum:batting_standard Ironically, Marcel projections from Baseball-Reference have him posting a .744 OPS over 380 ABs. If that is what he provides - and I think that 2018 was more the fluke than 2017-2019 was... then I think Sogard will be quite valuable as a part-time SS/3B.
  3. Harold Hutchison
    I don't think anyone disputes that Josh Hader is an elite relief pitcher. We've seen what he has done since he came up in 2017, and his talent is undeniable. He's probably been the difference in 10 games a season over the last two years. The problem is that his elite performance will soon come with a high price tag and at some point, the salary he will command for that elite performance will cost the Brewers more than just money. The question is, what do we do as that salary climbs? Do we wait until the salary gets so high that the return in a trade is diminished, or do we move him with a little more control and cheaper, to get that better return? Yeah, we could pay him $15 million, but if that means he secures wins 71-80, or even to secure wins 76-85 on a season, is it really the best use of the financial resources of the Milwaukee Brewers? I would argue in those cases, the $15 million is poorly spent. You could argue that the 2019 playoff Brewers came about because Milwaukee traded a player at the right time: The Carlos Gomez trade brought Hader and Houser, both key members of the pitching staff, it brought Brinson, who was the centerpiece of the Yelich trade, and it brought Maverick Phillips, who was arguably the centerpiece of the Moustakas trade. This is what Milwaukee will have to confront, barring some super-mega billionaire buying the team from Mark Attanasio.
  4. Harold Hutchison
    A team like the Brewers needs to be able to develop most of its players, especially the bullpen/supporting cast, from within. Either they are the players who step up and fill roles, or you are able to trade them to get the players you need/want. Especially if you want to have sustained success. If the Brewers can't do that, then we as fans are in for a long rebuild after this window ends, and they need to be emotionally ready to see the team blown up where Hader is not the only star leaving via trade. At some point, Rasmussen, Andrews, QTC, Barker, Perdomo, and Olczak need to contribute to the Brewers at the major league level, whether it's in a Brewers uniform or being traded for help. The first three have shown enough to me that they should get every chance to contribute. Barker's someone I could see the Brewers using or dealing for help. Perdomo's lack of control and Olczak's regression from 2018 have me somewhat less confident in them as opposed to the other four, but they still could be good. This re-tooling year may be the year to find out about some of these pitchers.
  5. Harold Hutchison
    Yeah, enough to make Arenado in the NL Central somewhat palatable. It cripples the Cards' farm system.
  6. Harold Hutchison
    Yeah, enough to make Arenado in the NL Central somewhat palatable. It cripples the Cards' farm system.
  7. Harold Hutchison
    Andrews finished AA after being drafted in 2018 - later than Rasmussen. Both have made rapid rises through the system, finishing at AA in 2019, less than two full seasons after being drafted. QTC's coming off Tommy John surgery - but in 2018 posted a combined ERA of 1.31. His Colorado Springs ERA? An even 1.50. At the AFL, didn't look like he's missed a beat. Honestly, if he hadn't hurt his elbow, I think the Crew doesn't make that Claudio trade. Luke Barker dominated in San Antonio with a 1.20 ERA in 2019. I'd be comfortable with Rasmussen and Andrews in the Brewers pen on opening day. QTC and Barker are folks who I think will force their way on there. Olczak and Perdomo are the question marks.
  8. Harold Hutchison
    Andrews finished AA after being drafted in 2018 - later than Rasmussen. Both have made rapid rises through the system, finishing at AA in 2019, less than two full seasons after being drafted. QTC's coming off Tommy John surgery - but in 2018 posted a combined ERA of 1.31. His Colorado Springs ERA? An even 1.50. At the AFL, didn't look like he's missed a beat. Honestly, if he hadn't hurt his elbow, I think the Crew doesn't make that Claudio trade. Luke Barker dominated in San Antonio with a 1.20 ERA in 2019. I'd be comfortable with Rasmussen and Andrews in the Brewers pen on opening day. QTC and Barker are folks who I think will force their way on there. Olczak and Perdomo are the question marks.
  9. Harold Hutchison
    This makes my point better than I could- thanks for that! It does seem to me that 3TO-type players are becoming overvalued in the present baseball market. Shifts are also reducing their effectiveness to a degree as well. Perhaps the market ineffciency is the players who hit for contact well, and spray the ball to all fields, but who lack power.
  10. Harold Hutchison
    This makes my point better than I could- thanks for that! It does seem to me that 3TO-type players are becoming overvalued in the present baseball market. Shifts are also reducing their effectiveness to a degree as well. Perhaps the market ineffciency is the players who hit for contact well, and spray the ball to all fields, but who lack power.
  11. Harold Hutchison
    That does seem like a lot. Granted, I go for a Seager-Dunn-Sheffield package, but I'm at least dangling Tristan Lutz, who is a legit prospect. Even then, BaseballTradeValues.com says Milwaukee's doing a minor overpay.
  12. Harold Hutchison
    That does seem like a lot. Granted, I go for a Seager-Dunn-Sheffield package, but I'm at least dangling Tristan Lutz, who is a legit prospect. Even then, BaseballTradeValues.com says Milwaukee's doing a minor overpay.
  13. Harold Hutchison
    With a AAA pen of Olczak, Barker, Rasmussen, Andrews, QTC, and Perdomo... why sign free agents? I'd bet Barker, Rasmussen, QTC, and Andrews could be as good, if not better.
  14. Harold Hutchison
    With a AAA pen of Olczak, Barker, Rasmussen, Andrews, QTC, and Perdomo... why sign free agents? I'd bet Barker, Rasmussen, QTC, and Andrews could be as good, if not better.
  15. Harold Hutchison
    Because so often the guys who end up being the eventual relief prospects are starters in the lower minors, I rarely pay much attention to minor league relievers until they reach AA. I put together my top 25 vote through first doing a series of cuts. Right now 11 players who pitched more in relief than starting would make the first cut. Of those, only three didn't pitch at AA or AAA last year (or would have if healthy in QTC's case): one has the prospect pedigree (Bickford) and the other two will quite possibly be starting next year (Castaneda and Lindell). I tend to lean more towards results in the upper minors myself - see my relatively high rankings of Hummel and Wilson. The first jump is from the rookie/short-season to the full-season. Ronnie Gideon was one I was high on, and he flopped in that transition. Fry made that jump, and has also done well in the AFL. The second one is from Advanced A to AA. Hummel's made that second jump, as has Wilson. That said, sometimes, in the low minors, someone shows something. Mediavilla is that case, and he will get a high ranking in my next top 25. Two sub-1.00 ERA seasons and that career WHIP... well, let's just say it got my attention, despite a pick in the 36th round of 2018. He made the jump from short-season to full-season, and the results speak.
  16. Harold Hutchison
    Because so often the guys who end up being the eventual relief prospects are starters in the lower minors, I rarely pay much attention to minor league relievers until they reach AA. I put together my top 25 vote through first doing a series of cuts. Right now 11 players who pitched more in relief than starting would make the first cut. Of those, only three didn't pitch at AA or AAA last year (or would have if healthy in QTC's case): one has the prospect pedigree (Bickford) and the other two will quite possibly be starting next year (Castaneda and Lindell). I tend to lean more towards results in the upper minors myself - see my relatively high rankings of Hummel and Wilson. The first jump is from the rookie/short-season to the full-season. Ronnie Gideon was one I was high on, and he flopped in that transition. Fry made that jump, and has also done well in the AFL. The second one is from Advanced A to AA. Hummel's made that second jump, as has Wilson. That said, sometimes, in the low minors, someone shows something. Mediavilla is that case, and he will get a high ranking in my next top 25. Two sub-1.00 ERA seasons and that career WHIP... well, let's just say it got my attention, despite a pick in the 36th round of 2018. He made the jump from short-season to full-season, and the results speak.
  17. Harold Hutchison
    My thinking is that we'll get something akin to the midpoint of the 2017-2018 versions of Gyorko. The 2016 with 30 homers and only 10 other XBH is an outlier, and so is 2019. That's a .790 OPS, with a 162-game average of 26 doubles and 21 homers with 74 RBI, based on Baseball-Reference.
  18. Harold Hutchison
    My thinking is that we'll get something akin to the midpoint of the 2017-2018 versions of Gyorko. The 2016 with 30 homers and only 10 other XBH is an outlier, and so is 2019. That's a .790 OPS, with a 162-game average of 26 doubles and 21 homers with 74 RBI, based on Baseball-Reference.
  19. Harold Hutchison
    With his pitch mix, Burnes could be a starter. Would that be a better use of him? Will he rebound from 2019? Or is he a brief wonder that everyone has figured out? Lots of questions.
  20. Harold Hutchison
    With his pitch mix, Burnes could be a starter. Would that be a better use of him? Will he rebound from 2019? Or is he a brief wonder that everyone has figured out? Lots of questions.
  21. Harold Hutchison
    This. It's about improving the run differential in the aggregate among all 26 players on the roster. For instance, trading Josh Hader for Jeff McNeil and J.D. Davis would have done exactly that. A McNeil-Urias-Hiura-Davis infield stacks up very well to Moustakas-Arcia-Hiura-Thames - and McNeil and Davis would be coming from a pretty pitcher-friendly park. Furthermore, that infield is cheap and has five years of control. With that sort of offensive improvement - it more than makes up. Maybe the game isn't close enough to require Hader.
  22. Harold Hutchison
    This. It's about improving the run differential in the aggregate among all 26 players on the roster. For instance, trading Josh Hader for Jeff McNeil and J.D. Davis would have done exactly that. A McNeil-Urias-Hiura-Davis infield stacks up very well to Moustakas-Arcia-Hiura-Thames - and McNeil and Davis would be coming from a pretty pitcher-friendly park. Furthermore, that infield is cheap and has five years of control. With that sort of offensive improvement - it more than makes up. Maybe the game isn't close enough to require Hader.
  23. Harold Hutchison
    He's only 23. He could put it together. I'd have no problems at all with giving him a minor-league deal with NRI invite. The goal would be to make him a relief pitcher - he seemed to do better when he was shifted to the bullpen - but at his age... yeah, I take the chance.
  24. Harold Hutchison
    Hader is arguably the best reliever in baseball, and 99% of the time, he shuts down opposing batters in a very dominant fashion. That said, from 2017-2019, he was cheap. He ended up "super 2" - a real shock that ups his pay for 2020, but he is still a bargain. I do remember his dominance aside from that game. Do I rule out dealing him for the right return? No. That return would have been McNeil and Davis from the Mets, solidifying the corner IF positions for the Brewers for five years. If nothing like that was coming... fine, I keep Hader. But to get major talent in return - or to fill multiple question marks... yeah,. I'd deal Hader. The Crew has Rasmussen, Andrews, Olczak, Barker, and QTC on the farm; Suter and Peralta are in the majors. Knebel is coming back from Tommy John.
  25. Harold Hutchison
    I think that the Brewers are doing better than many rankings indicate. Not just the youth of the ones they rank (and who have upside), but also in terms of later picks that the folks doing the ratings tend to ignore. On the Brewers, for instance, Brandon Woodruff was an 11th-round pick in the 2014 draft. Suter was a 31st rounder in 2012. Yes we got LoCain as a free agent, but he was originally a 17-round pick of the Brewers in 2004. Jacob Barnes, who did well from 2016-2018, was a 14th-round pick in 2011. Even among the prospects, Dylan File was a 21st-round pick in 2017. Alec Bettinger was a 10th-round pick in 2017. Clayton Andrews was a 17th-round pick in 2018 and already at AA. Michael Mediavilla, who has two consecutive years of sub-1.00 ERAs and a career WHIP of 0.640 - 34th round, 2018 draft. Quintin Torres-Costa was a 35th-round pick in the 2015 draft. Some of the hitting prospects I like, like Cooper Hummel and Weston Wilson were also drafted later - in the 18th and 17th rounds of the 2018 draft. Cam Devanney was a 15th-round pick in 2019. Ryan Aguilar was a 31st-round pick in 2016.
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