Harold Hutchison

If results were all that mattered, the Brewers would be looking pretty going forward with pitching. The Missions were first in the PCL in ERA and WHIP and second in strikeouts. The Shuckers were second in all three categories in the Southern League. The fact is Suter having as much success as he has had is as much of an anomaly as Lemons would be if he become a solid big league contributor after not breaking into full season ball for three years. Remember the meteoric rise and quick fall of Chris Cody (yes, despite my post count I have been lurking around here that long)? That is the more common story. On Lemons, I think it is less what have you done for me lately, which to me implies results-based, and more the inability to see what if any progress is being made because of how few innings he has thrown. Even a season like fellow project Nash Walters had last year, while by no means dominant, would at least show some progress. Even a placement at Wisconsin to start next season, even if the results are rocky at times, would display a heartening confidence in him by the Brewers. Funny you mention Biloxi: Dylan File, Alec Bettinger, Drew Rasmussen, and Bowden Francis all has very good years there. Cam Roegner was also very solid coming off some injury problems. File and Bettinger, I think look very promising as #3 starter types. Francis, a middle-relief guy. Roegner... maybe a #4/5 - or he could be a TOR ace. He'll either be very good or filler. https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/team.cgi?id=996df32e

Seager posted a .789 OPS in 2019, good for a 112 OPS+. Miller Park has taken the very good Yelich and turned him into an MVP. The so-so Seager could very well be average offensively for the duration the contract. It's not like's Orlando Arcia bad at the plate. It's not ideal, and honestly, the Dunn/Sheffield portion of the return is what I view as far more important. Adding Dunn to the rotation, and thereby adding not just Sheffield, but Houser to the bullpen makes the pitching much better, though... and I think that overall, the deal is worth it. Think of the aggregate of the Lutz-for-Seager-Dunn-Sheffield deal. A six-headed monster of Hader-Knebel-Suter-Peralta-Houser-Sheffield in the bullpen would be 2015 Royals good.

So we should be either getting less back in return or need to add some more value. So probably remove Sheffield yeah? Especially considering you are instilling Dunn immediately in to the rotation. Actually, I would wonder on the fact that pretty much both Dunn and Sheffield have passed prospect ranking barely as rookies that they are likely devalued far too much by the site. Both were top 100 prospects in 2018, Dunn still remains top 100 at 70. Considering Sheffield fell out of the top 100 and Lutz isn't then I'd guess Sheffield. Maybe you include Arcia to get Dunn. They non-tendered Beckam and have JP Crawford for SS who batted below .700OPS last season. I'd also suspect that the 14.7mil value for Seager would increase playing in Milwaukee as mentioned above with ballpark factor. Maybe vs Lutz you make it Joe Gray depending on which of Sheffield or Dunn. I mis-typed: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-19880/ Seattle is getting $14.7 in surplus value in the trade by getting Lutz. Milwaukee gets $13.5 million in surplus value between Seager (-$21.8 million, albeit I think that Miller Park improves his value via the park factors), Dunn ($16.6 million), and Sheffield ($18.7). No objection to tossing Arcia in, to seal this deal. Maybe Seattle balks, but on surplus value... this has a shot.

The Brewers should keep them both.

Seems to effect some guys a lot more than others. I'm not trying to make the case that Lemons is a sure thing or that he's an elite (in all of baseball) talent, but not putting him in the Brewers top 30 seems a little much. He's one of their top 7 draft picks in the last 4 years who hasn't graduated. Teens, 20s seems much more fair and makes the farm look better than it does now. It seems with MKE they are far too quick to erase guys and far to slow to realize a prospect is a real prospect. Then he goes from 20-35 to top 5 in the system to the MLB in 6 months. File, yeah not sitting at 95+ but when you can throw a curve that drops dramatically and a slider that sweeps across the plate that looks the same as a 90-93 FB that he can locate, I wish batters good luck. I remember watching a highlight package on him and watching back to back pitches that went FB letter high inner 3rd then CB which started letter high inner 3rd and crossed right above the knees for strike 3. They looked the same until one broke and the other didn't. Batter didn't have a prayer. Yeah highlights are highlights but 93 FB up vs CB 80 for a strike and the batter basically has to guess which one. It's filthy. He talks about Trevor Bauer often and for good reason. At some point, you need to look at results. Brent Suter had `em in 2015-2016. How much was he dismissed om this board? But if I were Stearns, I'd be looking over what there was available in 2012, and see if we can find others who could slip. Players who could be signed for a relatively small amount, but who could emerge as real contributors.

His first year back after two Tommy John surgeries... that is a lot of hope. The big debate is, do you use him as a multi-inning reliever (for which he could be ready by June 1), or do you wait and risk an arm with two Tommy Johns as a starter?

At risk of re-igniting an old debate/hobbyhorse of mine... ss: Urias 2b: Hiura lf: Yelich rf: Garcia c: Narvaez 1b: Smoak 3b: Braun cf: Cain pitcher Think about it... it gets a bat that posted an OPS+ of 116 in the lineup. Doesn't cost prospects. IT's only for a year, and they can always use Sogard as a direct late-inning defensive replacement or Arcia as an indirect replacement (Urias moves to third).

I think you way, way, way over-value Lutz. Lutz has yet to reach AA ball and hit only .235 in low A Appleton and .245 in A+ Carolina. Lutz alone wouldn't even get Dunn much less all three even if they took on Seager's entire contract. His value is at $14.7 million per BaseballTradeValues.com, the package Milwaukee gets back is about $13.5 million. That said, I think Seager would benefit from the move to Milwaukee, based on park factors - T-Mobile Park has posted a multi-year factor of 93 hitting/94 pitching. Miller Park's park factor is 101/101. Seager posted a .789 OPS and an OPS+ of 112. Somewhat above average for a major leaguer. Figure those will tip the balance somewhat.

Taking Seager's entire deal could work... https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-19880/ Mariners get: OF Tristan Lutz Brewers get: 3B Kyle Seager LHP Justus Sheffield RHP Justin Dunn Opening Day roster: ss: Urias 2b: Hiura lf: Yelich rf: Garcia c: Narvaez 1b: Smoak 3b: Seager cf: Cain pitcher bench: Pina, Braun, Sogard, Gamel, Arcia rotation: Woodruff, Dunn, B. Anderson, Lindblom, Lauer bullpen: Hader, Knebel, Suter, Peralta, Houser, Sheffield, Claudio, Yardley That's a 26-man to win the division.

I dont have a link, but I know it has been reported that yelich is the one(possibly one of two, but I cant remember the other name) player we are not open to trading for the right price. Yelich is the only one who is off-limits for sure. I'm not sure how I feel about that. On the one hand, he is unique. On the other hand, if a team was offering a massive overpay for Yelich (say the Yankees offer Torres, Urshela, Stanton, Severino, and Sanchez), I'd be willing to listen, even if it's to say, "Thanks, but no." So, practically, I would have Yelich on a "not available for trade" list, but theoretically, there are packages I'd take for him. I doubt any GM would be willing to make them. Hiura may be almost on that list. I'd take him even up for Torres, but would the Yankees bite?

Kyle Seager says "Hi". just need Dipoto to eat $12 million and have Kyle agree his option remains a team one. How about we take Seager, not alter his contract, and add Justin Dunn and Justus Sheffield to the deal?

There were significant extenuating circumstances that impacted both trades made in this specific case (so definitely not an apples-to-apples comparison), but there is one example of the Yankees getting back significantly more than they paid for a high-end reliever... December 28, 2015: Aroldis Chapman traded by the Cincinnati Reds to the New York Yankees for Eric Jagielo, Caleb Cotham, Rookie Davis and Tony Renda. July 25, 2016: Aroldis Chapman traded by the New York Yankees to the Chicago Cubs for Rashad Crawford, Billy McKinney, Gleyber Torres and Adam Warren. Still, worrying about what might happen down the road is the last thing that should be on the minds of the Brewers’ front office. They will focus on their own evaluation of the players/prospects being offered right now and balance that with their long term projections for Josh Hader. If they get a deal where they feel confident the long-term impact greatly outweighs the projected value of Hader over the next few seasons than they will likely pull the trigger. As much as the fan in me wants the Brewers to go “all-in” during the Yelich window, it also makes me a bit of a hypocrite since I was an antagonist of Doug Melvin’s “window theory”. The discipline the current front office has shown is actually pretty incredible even if it can be frustrating at times. I have a feeling David Stearns is telling the truth when he references building a perennial winner versus attempting to swing for the fences within a specific cycle of time. That may mean the Brewers won’t always have flashy off-seasons and in many cases they may take a significant asset and try to multiply the projected value into the future via trade, but it also means the Brewers won’t likely ever be in a position where they can’t make moves because of an overwhelming amount of dead money on the books, or refuse to make moves just because they overvalue the present. This says a lot about my take on Stearns as well. He wants a perennial winner. So do we. But Milwaukee needs to build a perennial winner in a different way than a big-market team does, simply because the Brewers can't do a $200 million payroll each year. Even if Jeff Bezos bought the Brewers, a perpetual $200 million payroll has less chance of happening than "fetch." Much of the team's focus will have to be on the farm system and scouting international markets - KBO, Japan, Australia, etc. Part of it is going to be on sabremetrics, finding an edge other teams undervalue. A lot will be on scouting - especially when it comes to finding "nuggets" who other teams miss. The Brewers need to be able to find major league contributors - if not stars - who fall to the late rounds. The next Brent Suter, for instance. Sometimes, that process will mean dealing a Josh Hader. But it also will mean having the talent capital in the farm system to get a Christian Yelich. It also means having the payroll flexibility to sign a free agent like LoCain.

I tend to agree. I think if he performs as he did in 2018/2019, he will still draw a very good haul. That said, if the Mets offered a package of McNeil and Davis - I'd take it straight up for Hader. At this point, I would want a good mix of MLB-ready talent AND prospects from the Yankees. OR, put it this way, I'd go Hader-Lutz for Torres, Andujar, Dominguez, and Garcia.

I agree with this 100%...You cannot trade Hader unless you will be significantly better NOW with what you get, then what you would lose in Hader. Unless Stearns gets whatever he wants, you simply don't trade him. Period. For me, if I'm Stearns, I echo an earlier post. I demand Torres as at least one piece. Anything that doesn't include him, my answer is no, and would always be no. One thing that also needs to be considered..I know GM's have to make a lot of tough decisions, but in all honesty if you trade Hader, you HAVE to be ready to explain to the fans why you did, and if the package is underwhelming, you can expect a lot of blow back, and whether it's right or wrong, trading someone like Josh who has such a "cult" following, would have consequences from fans. That's just reality when you trade a popular player. One of the benefits of what I wanted from the Mets (McNeil/Davis headlining) is very simple: We have acquired players who can protect Yelich and Hiura in the lineup over the next five years.

With the White Sox: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-19615/ White Sox Get: LHP Josh Hader Brewers get: IF Nick Madrigal IF Danny Mendick C Zach Collins LHP Bernardo Flores 1B Gavin Sheets

Anderson does not have a higher floor than Ryu. He has the same injury concerns. I think Anderson has a better track record. Most importantly, the Brewers are on the hook for three fewer years and $75 million less if this goes bad.

But you have to ask yourself why did the outlier happen. Teams over extend, beyond inflation and the nature of the fully guaranteed deals leave them stuck. Happens in the NBA too. See the Cubs. They couldn't sign Alex Claudio because of the deals they gave other players.. Alex freakin' Claudio. This is a year where more teams than normal are getting from under bad deals. One nice thing about a good farm system is you don't have to solely rely on the free agent market. I wonder what the internal discussions about the pitching prospects - Bettinger, File, Andrews, Rasmussen, Jankins, Francis, Burnes, QTC, etc - are saying. I bet there's something in the analytics that has Stearns feeling good about how well they can contribute.

I think the fairytale is believing that the Brewers are ever going to be one of those teams. Also, there are plenty of teams out there that have proven year after year that spending money doesn't equate to success. Therefore, it would stand to reason that saving money doesn't equal failure. I need think the Brewers will be one of those teams though. But that doesn’t mean they should cut by millions after 2 playoff seasons. Non-tenders, bargain buys are fine. But also to get a quality player or 2 to keep playoff chances high Anderson is a quality player - he posted some very good numbers. Yes, it's 1 year, $5 million, but there is a higher floor than Ryu, albeit a lower ceiling. Lindblom is also a quality signing - with very good performance in KBO. If he is even 80% of what he was in KBO, that's a huge boost. Urias is a quality shortstop who can pair with Hiura. There have been quality acquisitions. No big names, but good players.

I'm glad they didn't. At best, and when healthy, Ryu is a borderline-TOR pitcher. But 2019 is the outlier in terms of health. Let Toronto pay $20 million a year for 20-25 starts a season. I'd rather bank on Burnes rebounding and Peralta harnessing his change and slider than risk an albatross contract.

I agree. The Mets, with McNeil, LHP Kevin Smith, and a couple other prospects would be my choice.

Well, the market was bound to get hot at some point. With Ryu, it is a question of can he stay healthy... and after Nelson... if I were Stearns, I'd probably not throw the money at Ryu. It might be better spent on the analytics labs to help get the group of Burnes/Brown/Supak/Roegner/File/Bettinger/Francis/Andrews/Rasmussen/Perdomo/Torres-Costa to go up a level or two.

When looking at the farm system, many seem to believe the rankings too much. Quite frankly, there are many reasons for Brewers fans to have a lot optimism for the future. For instance, Cooper Hummel is looking like the best offensive prospect nobody has heard of. https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=669450 David Fry has been posting amazing offensive numbers - and showing versatility on the field. https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=681807 Ryan Aguilar is a walk machine - who has put together the hitting, too. https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=666922 Ernesto Wilson Martinez looks to be a huge power bat at first base: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=martin004ern Max Lazar looks like an ace in the making: https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=676661 Drew Rasmussen is emerging as a potential fireman in the bullpen: https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=656876 Clayton Andrews is a two-way player: https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=677076 And in a small sample, Michael Mediavilla just dominated: https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=656728 So, which players do the folks at Brewerfan.net think will break out and catch the rest of baseball by surprise?

I like that idea. It would be workable, would still give the umps the first call, and the most egregious mistakes would (hopefully) be caught and corrected. I also think it could be useful to generate percentages of how accurately umps call the zone, and where they miss.

Maybe Travis is a deadline pickup for the Crew...

The high ground-ball stats would have made a 3-year/$60 million deal viable, IMO. Right around the Yelich window, when Hiura/Urias would still be cheap(ish), and it would have moved Houser to the pen with Hader/Knebel/Suter/Peralta. I think, ultimately, it's that 4th year vesting option that pushed Stearns away. And I'd probably pass as well. I might have gone for a mutual option with a buyout of $7.5 million or so, and probably would have declined it, but the deal's just a hair too long at a slightly too high AAV.