endaround

I agree with And That, this is a defense thing. The Brewers rate slightly above average at SS and below average to abysmal everywhere else by UZR. Broxton' s injury likely has not helped him, but everyone else is not that surprising.

Jimmy Nelson is #35 in the league at FIP- among qualified starters. Not sure what he is supposed to prove to people. Is it just people don't realize that we are now in a high scoring environment again?

Braun to the Dodgers only made sense when they were trying to get rid of Puig. Since that isn't happening, he really doesn't make much sense. Better to get a short term player if all you are worried about is a few dozen PAs. The Royals are dying so Cain will soon be available for the remainder of this season and then he can walk. There are teams that could use a LFer but if Braun makes picking up his option part of the cost of waiving his no trade clause, he will be very difficult to move without the Brewers dumping a load of money.

Our WHIP and OBP are the second highest in the league. If we keep giving up that many base runners, the ERA will go up accordingly I should think. So we're getting rather lucky so far. The starting pitching has been fine. Anderson has a FIP- of 62, Davies and Nelson of 99, and even Peralta and Millone have not terrible 106 and 107. What is killing the Brewers is terrible defense at 2B and RF (and maybe CF) along with terrible relief performances by Torres, Marinez, and Feliz so far.

What does this even mean? Adam Eaton is 28 and the White Sox got MLB.com's #1 and #9 overall prospect in MLB for him. If Thames is hitting .280 with 25 HR at the deadline, I wouldn't expect anything less of a package as he would certainly be more valuable than Adam Eaton. Statements like that without explanation come across as snarky. Adam Eaton has been one a good player for three straight years on a cheap contract. Thames will have one half season in July. He is just riskier than Eaton and won't bring the same talent back, even ignoring that Eaton is in his prime and Thames is nearing the end of his. After teh end of this season you may get something closer to what Eaton brought back.

83 PAs is enough to worry about a 37.3% K rate. His OOZ rate is up and his contact rate is down. He is taking more 1st pitch strikes. He should at least be moved down in the order so maybe the "having to take a pitch as the leadoff hitter" thing stops.

Given that the Braves have Freeman, I'd say no that really doesn't work.

There aren't any defensive grades yet. The top defensive score is just the average weight given for playing 2B in WAR calculations.

1. There is a reason fangraphs has every single position on the Brewers in the 20s except LF and 1B. There are a lot of players that need to prove themselves still before they even are considered average starters. The Brewers are not good. 2. Probably. he was likely to regress some but yes he isn't terrible like he is now. He's a decent utility player. 3. He had a BABIP of .425 so yeah it was a fluke. He's likely more of an 800 OPS player than a 950 one 4. Already giving up on Santana? Or Braun does get traded shortly? Only way that makes sense. 5. Maybe but I still like Davies. Of course, MLB wants to kill his value. No other pitcher depended on the low strike as much as Davies and MLB looks to be trying to take it away. 6. Probably. 7. I think he could handle 1B

Except he really won't be. A few things: 1) Villar's UZR/150 of -22.5 at SS is the worst since at least 2000. He's not just bad, he's approaching Braun at 3B bad. He likely can be somewhat less horrendous at 2B but that is still a huge deficit. 2). Villar's bat is solid but not special at 2B compared to SS. His wRC+ of 118 would rank #10 at 2B in 2016. Which puts him in solid starter category not All Star. And that is with decent defense. 3). Villar is about to turn 26. So his defensive peak is likely already in the past. His bat might pick up, but he already had a BABIP of .373 last year which can expect to regress. Villar is intriguing but there was a reason why a SS who had a wRC+ for 109 was available for basically nothing.

That is based upon bWAR. Look at fWAR, Garza put up 4.7 wins which has a value of $47 million under his $10 million per win metric.

I just don't get why you don't split time between your two 27 year old catchers in the hopes one breaks out instead of giving playing time to a 30 year old AAA journeyman. And yes its only 262 PAs over numerous years, but Susac has a wRC+ of 104 in MLB. I'd take that over spring training stats.

Garza had the third higher fWAR among Brewer starters last year. His FIP- was 101 which is basically 2/3 territory. His ERA- was 105. People have not adjusted to the new scoring environment, a 4.50 ERA is decent. If Garza is healthy he is a solid pitcher. As a person he seems to be pretty big jerk and I would hardly be upset if the Brewers traded him. But he is worth his contract if not $5 million or so more so I don't get the idea of just releasing him. And if he isn't traded during the season and is just average or below, he suddenly becomes a 3/4 starter on a one year $5 million contract.

Well that's Steamer which always seems to have really high regression to average in its projections. ZIPS has him at 2.4 but actually even more of an offensive regression but less of a defensive hit and more playing time. If you only care about offense (ie fantasy) you could see Braun as number 1 if you don't count Bryant. He's then in a close group with Yelich and Cespedes but both those players are younger.

Because of the salary tax the Brewers would have to pay more in salary instead of just taking McCarthy back to be the same for the Dodgers.

I would doubt this very much, but if they are anywhere even close, one is a 24-25 year old with upside doing it for less than a million dollars, and one is a 36-37 year old with no upside doing it for $19M. Big difference. Assuming the 24-25 year old makes the big league roster during that time. Remember it's about a 50/50 chance that Bellinger will make it as an everyday player. Braun won't be Pujols ancient at that timeframe either. Braun is actually very fit compared to most his age. Look how long Konerko played and put up outstanding numbers. Its funny you bring up Pujols. For his age 32 season he had a wRC+ of 133. For Braun's age 32 season, last year, he had a wRC+ of 133. Pujols had some solid season after that but in year 4 (last year) he is no longer a guy you want starting for a competing team.

Given the Brewers had both a a FRANCHISE HITTER in Braun and an ACE LEVEL PITCHER in Guerrera (and Davies was close to being another) last year its almost like that isn't enough... And that Davies hasn't been mentioned at all in this thread is strange.

Because of the draft pick, Fowler is being paid less than the market rate.

1. Arcia was not very good in AAA last year 2. Arcia was awful in MLB last year 3. It will get back more service time that was wasted promoting a not ready Arcia

Also hoping that come October that 4 of Hill, Kershaw, Maeda, Ryu, and Urias (maybe can throw Wood in there) are ready for the post season. If they can avoid having Bud Norris or McCarthy types making 18 starts or replace Kazmir's 26 all the better.

Rich Hill got 48M because he's coming off an extremely good season, Garza is not. Career numbers matter but with the career projectory of these two, it's much more about 'What have you done for me lately?' The concerns about his age, health and career workload are certainly legitimate and I would bet it's much more likely than not that the Dodgers end up regretting this deal. But Volquez (also 33) just got a 2 year $22 million deal. Garza was a better pitcher last year (over a shorter span). Garza had a Fip- of 101, and average for a starter is really good, making him a low 2 high 3 type. Offense is back up, a 4.50 ERA is average again.

Hill is about to be 37. No matter how many years they sign him for, they really only expect 1 year out of him in the rotation.

Wow these are nowhere near enough. Trout is a consistent 9(!!!!!) win player. That means he is worth about $75-80 million per year. For the reamin years on his contract he is being paid $119 million. There is $181 million in excess value there. You would need to start with Davies, Brinson and Hader and then build on that with like Arcia and Diaz. The Angles aren't taking back older risks like Villar or Broxton except as tertiary pieces. And they aren't taking on guys who may be out of the major leagues by next year in Nelson and Gennett.

Santana has had serious issues with RH pitching. Having a soft platoon with Kirk N. while coming off injury is hardly the end of the world. Also Kirk N had wRC+ of 89 and grades out at average to above average in CF meaning he could be a low end starting CFer, basically Jacoby Ellsbury. I don't get the whole dump him for nothing thing. I mean he was as valuable as Chris Carter in 2016 in 2/3rd the PAs and the Brewers won't have to pay him $8 million for 2017.

2B was a hot bed of offense in 2016. Will it continue? Who knows, but there is very little difference between 2B and 3B in 2016 (2B and RF were basically equal at a wRC+ of 101 on average and better than LF or CF, though since lots of PHers play OF not exactly a fair comparison). Villar's wRC+ of 118 would be about 15th for those who got 350+ PAs at each position. Villar has been a terrible defender a SS and at 3B. He might work at 2B, I'm dubious but it could work out. As for Gennett, he was doing really well until hsi injury and then nose dived both offensively and defensively. For the second year in a row he was basically replacement level. His walk rate improved which was good, but that was mostly because he took a bunch more walks against LH pitching (10.2% to go with a K rate of 27.8% versus 6.2% and 19.2% vs RH). This made him OK versus LH pitching but will this continue or will pitchers adjust? So Gennet is either a guy you play to hope you can get a guy who once again can give you a wRC+ 120 vs RH pitching and play solid defense to give you an OK starter or you decide to hand 2B to Villar and non-tender Gennett. Hard to see Gennett bringing anything in a trade given his cost. Carter provided basically his career average last year. But due to the overall home run surge and Miller Park, he hit 41 home runs which can lead to large arbitration awards. He is little different form the guy the Astros non-tendered. Only reason I see the Brewers non-tendering him is if they want to try Santana at 1B. Even then unless his asking salary is astronomical you would think you would sign him in case Santana can't play 1B so you have someone and then release or trade him during spring training if you feel comfortable with Sanatan (or Villar..).