J Brew Crew

The two video clips playing in my twisted little mind... 1. Lou Brown saying "We're contenders right now." 2. The American Express (Don't steal home without it) commercial except with Brewers instead of Jailhouse Snipes. I truly believe we are contenders right now. What else could I ask for? J Brew

The Marlin's showed they were displeased with his actions and hit him. Hitting him the second time is just foolish. How many times do you plunk the clown? Five? Let it go. Morgan looked like a clown when he was walking off the field. Why are you raising your arms in the air after you got pummeled? Makes no sense to me. I liked the reaction of Gaby Sanchez after he got beaned. He had to know it was coming and he just jogged to first. Not a lot to like here. J Brew

I think it's great he took a stand on a postion he believes in. I don't think it matters how you feel about the law in question but it is nice to see a young man stand up for what he believes. The common way to market one's self is usually not to take positions that may offend someone. Think Michael Jordan. When he was asked why he did not publicly support a democratic candidate, MJ replied "Republican's buy shoes too". The principle of not offending a potential buyer is sacrosant. I personally believe we are at the beginning of a big news story regarding the state of Arizona and the MLB all star game. The biggest reason is historical. In the late 80' early 90's (I forget exactly which years) Arizona ended it's Dr Martin Luther King holiday. The NFL pulled a SuperBowl that was scheduled there. Public Enemy had a controversial rap song and video called "By the Time I get Arizona". It was like Ron Burgandy, kind of a big deal. I throw this out there to explain why I think this is a big deal and there is a little history for our younger board members. The politics are the politics, I'm sure that people have strong opinions on both sides. I think it's cool he is willing to stand up for what he feels. J Brew

13-10 5 dingers, 5 saves, 8 steals. 18 total

I can't believe there are 17% who answered incorrectly.

I don't know if there is true competitve balance in MLB, but I would lean no, not compared to other sports. If you look at a 10 year period, the past 10 or the next 10 whatever, do you get the same expected return on your investment as a fan from "your" MLB team as you would vs "your" NBA, NHL or NFL team. Do you get the same expected return as a fan from another town gets from "their" team? Consider the time and money you spent on the Brewers. Money spent on tickets, parking and must have Brewer gear. Time spent watching games, going to games, wonderful evenings tailgating, posting here and sleepless nights tomented by the bullpen. I believe that your expected return is a lot more variable in MLB than in other sports. A small market fan has more years knowing "their" team is absolutely hopeless than a big market team. A small market fan has more years in the Bermuda triangle, bad last year, bad this year and bad next year. There are a lot of small market baseball teams that you can point at a 10 year span and say that team had no meaningful games in the last 1/3rd of the season for that decade. I think the number would be lower in the NFL. If I was born and raised somewhere else and my hometown team was a large market team, I should expect more days in the playoff hunt, more playoff games and therefore a greater expected return for my time and money. As a Packer fan too, I think there is less variance in return for my time and money than as a Brewer fan. Three points. The most important is I am very happy I am a Brewer fan. Would not trade it. And two I used the NFL for my thought process because I could not care any less about the NBA and the NHL salary cap is too new for me to figure out how it affects me as a fan. Most importantly number three, bad management and ownership trumps everything. It doesn't matter how balanced a league is if you are Brown family or Donald Sterling. I don't often think of my fanhood in expected return of my time and money but that is the way I look at it trying to figure out on how well a league is run and how balanced it is. Regards J Brew

I gotta say I was happy to see his effort. I am no fan of Z's in general but the guy was trying to get on and help his cause. The hustle was nice to see.

I was listening to Bill S. drop pearls of wisdom the other night on TV and he talked about Hart's plate discipline and how improved it is. And he actually got me thinking. How much can a fairly young player like Hart improve his plate discipline in one off season? Statistically the sample size is way too small year to date. I do remember reading in Moneyball that a "good eye" couldn't be taught. And I also read in the Stat Analysis section here that the age a players walks the most is 35, which blew me away. I guess my opinion is that as a player learns the pitchers and matures towards his peak production that his walk rate should go up, yet I would not expect a dramatic spike in his walk rate in one year. Can any of the stat guys wiegh in on this? For example Are dramatic spikes in walk rates common versus more a gradual improvement? If it is a gradual improvement as the norm, are there significant amount of outliers? For the non stat heads: Can you think of a lot of guys who significant improved plate discipline in one jump? In a nutshell I am hoping Hart can flip the switch, but I doubt it. All the best J

13-9 No ryhme or reason.

I would be very concerned with Wang's foot because of the possibility of it being a Lisfranc injury. Lisfranc injuries can be very hard to treat. I recall a Packer CB with a Lisfranc (Blackmon maybe?) that lingered for quite awhile. I realize that a pitcher has less stress on a foot than a NFL corner. My point is that stress in that part of the foot takes a long time to heal no matter who you are. I would speculate that it will be longer than the timetable. And unless they deal for a pitcher they are done... well, they might have been done already. Two additional points: 1) The headlines are hilarious. I will never grow up. 2) Hank Steinbrenner is funnier. His quotes on this subject are precious. I would cut and paste or link to them but you have to go find them. Then you have to double check that you are not at the Onion. JJ

Yes. As dark as it seems, they are playing 500 ball.

"Q: Is clutch hitting a repeatable/retain-able skill? A: I don't know" I wish he would have expounded a little more. Or at all. It really interests me on the how and the why of stats he would use to figure that out. Regards J

Try Higgin's. Racine and School. Like the Newport, it is just far enough away (3Blocks) to have some room. Also it's on the way to Will's Northwood which is 3 blocks further south. Will's is a Packer bar and a good time also. JJ

http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/01/bill-james-answers-all-your-baseball-questions/ I found this on the Freakonomics blog (free, no registration). Some interesting stuff like this answer. He answers to many Red Sox/ Yanks questions for my taste. Q: Has sabermetrics pretty much squeezed the last drop of new insights out of traditional counting statistics? If so, what data ought to be collected to improve our understanding of the game? If not, where can the boundaries be pushed? A: We haven't figured out anything yet. A hundred years from now, we won't have begun to have the game figured out. I'm not sure if this should be here or in the Stat area. Mods, please move as you see fit. Regards JJ Brew

Russ Good topic. 1) When you are looking at the perceived perceptions of others, you are looking at least two biases, your perceptions of your fellow fans and your own opinions. I would compare it to politics. "How can the Dems think that about subject X?" Attempting to guess someones view about a subject we both care about by looking through my own bias to figure out yours is foolhardy... but interesting. I could make a bunch of great political analogies here but I won't due to the flamibility of the subject. As a saber guy, Russ, it is interesting that you would bring up a subject that is so lacking in vigor but I think it is probative. 2) When it comes to starting pitching I look more at the length of the start than most people do. I am a believer that less work a bullpen has the better their stats. I have no idea if its true or not. I overvalue the quality start even though I do the math and I know 4.5 ERA is not great. But part of me is excited about the fact it is "quality". Perhaps I saw too many Quevadoesque starts. I also think most people have their pet stats ( K/BB, gb/fb etc.) and like pitchers that fall into their pet stat category whether they are actually good or not. The Branyan debates might have been due to those who hate K's versus those who love a player with a high SLG%. 3) Their is a casual fan bias on this board, and most boards for that matter, IMO. The average message board guy may or may not know baseball better than a casual fan. I would assume that the poster would skew younger and be more open to sabermetrics. As someone who is older than the mean and the median poster (37), I know many people who are not comfortable posting on message boards. Whether they are more or less knowledgeable and whether the fact they don't come here causes a knowledge gap is open for debate. 4) I am a Nugget head. "Whoever the Crew got for latin Cappy is going to be great! He has to be. He's a Melvin nugget." That bias is fairly prevelant here. 5) In general I think Brewerfan overvalues minor leaguers. I think it comes from so many years of looking at the junk on the major league roster and thinking whomever was in the minors had to be better. Active passionate fans plus the best resourse for Brewer minor leagues multiplied by many awful "major" leaguers equals a bias towards younger players. Not that its a bad thing but the projections from minor league stats to the bigs is crapshoot. Many times I have seen the attitude that "anyone must be better than this clown" so let's bring up a guy from AAA or AA. Thank the good Lord that many of the players who have come up recently have been as good or better than advertised. Sorry I got a little off topic. But this thread got me thinking a lot. All the best j