igor67
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Everything posted by igor67
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If Martin really wants a leg up on ST he should be studying tape of every Randy Wolf start he can.
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That's a pretty good ERA, when you look at the pitchers that's an excellent ERA. Well I suppose it's nice to know that we aren't imagining this problem with pitcher debuts. Well at least we can all remember benefiting from Chris Saenz' one major league start. Too bad his arm exploded.
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Well since others are going a bit pessimistic, I'm going to take the Colorado series in the when do we clinch pool.
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The win regardless of the St. Louis outcome really puts a lot of pressure on them to at least win the series on the road. They have to gain ground on us in the head to head at a minimum. I mean even if they swept all 6 games at this point they'd still have to out play us by quite a bit the other 20+ games as well.
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Corey Hart is very fun when he gets hot. And how sad is it to give up a steal without a throw to the pitcher.
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Your argument about 'assuming' players performance was proven wrong 30 years ago. Minor league statistics with appropriate difficulty and park adjustments are about as predictive as major league data. That's the trick you can't conflate prediction with postdiction. We don't know for sure what any player (which includes major leaguers too, see Pujols start and Casey as well) will ever do, until he has done it. We can however make reasonable predictions based on the data.
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A couple of random things to think about as to why claiming everyone and their uncle might not be wise. What if the stars align and a couple of guys fall into your lap? That's a quick way to blow a hole in next year's budget, to say nothing of the roster management problem. I'm guessing that if he had gotten the chance Melvin might have tried to block Thome to the Phillies, and a play a little bit of hardball. However, it's pretty easy to imagine burning more than a few bridges among other GMs by claiming all sorts of guys, and in effect blocking a whole bunch of trades. It's a small world and being a jerk can very easily have consequences in a couple of months when he goes looking to make offseason deals.
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Random fun way to think about our current magic number. Our current winning percentage for the year gets us 17 more wins. With 6 games left against the cards, getting just an even split or better has to be about 2/3 proposition. In other words if we just keep going, the cards could win the rest of their non-Brewer games and still barely have a chance to even got us into a 1-game playoff.
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Do you have any particular rigorous data that shows that players consistently underperform their expected production (MLE) for the first 10, or 20, or 100 ABs? Granted 50% of all players hit worse than their median expectation, but you are asserting essentially a universal phenomena.
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Dempster is some pretty good OF D away from having given up about 3 more runs. If Morgan has a longish AB he could hit 90 pitches in the 4th inning, that's a pretty rough night
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Green has a better shot of forcing his way onto a playoff roster than Gamel would. Despite the fact that Matt's numbers haven't been bad in his spotty major league action he still has that disappointing label for one. Second his high K approach makes so-so production look worse. Green is more likely to look more consistent at the plate, which means if he can have a good game early, he can keep seeing action to build some consistency. I have this notion that Matt's followed up more than one solid game with an 0-fer and multiple Ks. Not saying it will happen, but they are giving Green at least a chance to make an argument to be included. I don't think they have always done a good job putting guys in position to succeed in this brief windows, but they do seem perfectly willing to let a guys major league performance dictate keeping him around (not always when to let him go, but that is a slightly different issue).
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National League MVP 2011: Braun = MVP! (reply #318)
igor67 replied to jjfanec's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I like the how Braun has picked up the steals lately, to the point hitting 40 isn't out of the question. Not that he'd hit 40 HRs at this point without going just crazy the last month, but without the short DL stint he'd have had an almost shot. -
Based on what I've seen previously, Green has a decent shot of seeing some kind of game time off the bench today, I can't think of the last time a position player started a game the day they were called up for the Brewers. I can see him getting a Sunday start if the Cubs are throwing a righty.
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It's potentially worth exploring trading a starter to see if at the high price of pitching you can come out ahead, but there's a lot to be said for having Peralta as your first bullet if someone goes down, and Estrada as your second back-up as well. Plenty of seasons teams see a couple of rotation guys get dinged. If we do a trade I'd look for one clear major league roster upgrade and a pitching prospect at a minimum.
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Nationals not interested in Fielder
igor67 replied to PrinceEatMeat's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
There could definitely be a budget issue at work as others have pointed out, and the back to back big draft contracts are part of that. But just as importantly what would the Nats gain by hinting this early that they are interested in Fielder? It only creates more perceived demand, and builds anticipation of it happening, which then creates disappointment if not executed. That's not a good strategy for selling tickets. Putting together a big package after some of Boras' initial noise and swooping in with the big check can, especially if you orchestrate a Zimmerman extension shortly afterwards... But practically with the tampering rules, silence is golden and that's probably all the explanation the comment needs -
Berkman is also a pretty big question mark, given age and combination of recent seasons. It's way to easy to think he's a safe option.
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Giving guys even bench guys some work is a solid decision. Giving guys some time off during a DH is defensible. To some extent the fact that RR has garbage at the bottom of the roster isn't his fault (though to some extent it is) So I'm in the camp that some of the lineup complaints don't make a lot of sense because given that they are on the roster they do need to play.
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Felipe Lopez DFA'd; Narveson activated
igor67 replied to PrinceEatMeat's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I certainly hope the Brewers optimize the roster some more. not relying on specialists, and a staff that almost always gives you 6 if not more innings really gives you the chance to get a leg up on other teams by having different skill sets on the bench. -
Sounds like the Twins might be light on OF for next year. I don't know that he'd be available on waivers, but what if you went all out and swapped Thome and Glen Perkins for say Gindl? You'd have Perkins back for next year as well, so it's not just a sellout for this move year.
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I think it's hard in part, because while I agree that you don't want to just rest everybody for a week if you clinch you still give some guys an extra day off or two, and maybe plug in a starter or two to set up the rotation. And I don't think that fighting with the Phillies for home field in this situation is compelling enough to keep the pedal all the way to the floor. With the way the games are staggered the advantage only really exists in part of the potential series. You also already have homefield for the wildcard round, and thanks to Prince the World Series if you get that far. Maybe Roenicke feels different, but that little bit of tinkering the last week is enough in my mind to make it really hard to imagine, but then again...
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I think most wins is a little bit better of a record. Not to diminish starting 18-3, but it is a lot easier to build up a crazy winning percentage in only 2/3 of a month.
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This is a lot of fun, seems like it's been awhile since we had some really compelling prospect discussions. I think it is safe to say that most everyone would agree that assuming Prince ends up elsewhere Green and Gamel both deserve at worst significant platoon/ starter time next year. That's kind of the easy part. What do you think is the most sensible plan for the following: Schafer Moldanado Gindl I think based on limited roster space and their relatively short stints at AAA you put both Martin and Schafer back in AAA to start the year, and they help cover a nice chunk of the roster in case of injuries. Based in large part on the fact that Gindl has seemingly managed to handle every promotion without big slumps, I think he makes sense as a bench candidate. Based on the success with appropriate roles I have to imagine that Melvin will continue the Gomez/ Plush platoon next year and that eats up OF spots. I think tactically one could make a good argument for Martin's skill set at back-up catcher over George (particularly if the rest of the bench gets filled by some guys who can hit). My two concerns are that Martin still hasn't seen a lot of AAA ABs and he might seriously regress with a big drop in playing time, and catchers tend to get hurt and it's a lot cleaner roster management to bring Martin up then rather than hope Kottaras will accept assignment to Nashville.
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22-6 looks pretty good so far! What's the Brewers best record for a month? At this point it they would have to be in contention for breaking whatever it is.
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If only this RBI machine version of Casey had been here all year.
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Wow Wolf and K-rod may have had poor outings, but 3 walks and a base hit is terrible.