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igor67

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Everything posted by igor67

  1. igor67
    There seem to be a large number of Brewers this year who had unusually poor batting averages to start the season all the way up and down the system, and not a lot that stand out as maybe going the other way on the high side (maybe Morris).
  2. igor67
    Given the players not yet included, I think it is fair to say that the process has been too restrictive. Jenkins and Cirillo definitely should be in. Lots of years with the team and very excellent if underrated performances. I have a harder time eye balling the relative career lengths for some of the other guys from the 80's teams, but they could certainly fit in. My quasi-template is something like a player you could just plug into the team for about a decade and get above average performance out of most of those years. Obviously 10 years is not a requirement, nor do they all have to be Brewer years, but he should be someone you can think of as a Brewer.
  3. igor67
    Morris has taken a big step forward as a prospect, but he is still far below what Hart's prospect status was. I'm not opposed to trading Hart, but our best current position prospects have ceilings that touch what Corey has done. Which makes it difficult to just plug in a replacement and project similar performance. I suspect part of the difficulty of putting Corey in perspective has been that his offensive peak has largely coincided with the league wide decline in offense. a 130 OPS+ is pretty good as a RF or 1st basemen. Not perennial All-Star, but pretty hard to replace. This year the OPS+ is down to 112 right now, but that looks largely driven by a lower than normal batting average. Barring a really good offer of talent with how Corey has gone back to playing 1st base I think most of the best combinations of teams going forward probably have him playing first, and sorting out CF and RF from the host of players with similar values, but different skill sets.
  4. igor67
    After Loe has got roughed up no one in the pen looks like anything other than generic waiver claim middle relievers. Team wide there has been as much under performance overall as there was over performance last year. That said with most of the offense guys it looks more like a case of a really bad month early followed by about career norms the rest of the way. Basically with straight performance expectations on the offense side it looks like a .500 team. If the bullpen had been merely average this year we'd be sitting right there with the Cards. I've gone back and forth, but in a certain sense the idea that we only need some talent improvement is correct. Almost all of it needs to be on the pitching side. Spend the rest of the season trying to sort out and find out who can be relied upon in the pen. Trade Greinke or Gallardo only if you have to. Finding replacements as others have suggested is very high risk, and only increases the chances of having seasons like this where everything seems to go wrong.
  5. igor67
    Anybody else think that after this week, Maldanado might be excited at seeing Lucroy back soon? He still caught a nice chunk of innings on his off day yesterday.
  6. igor67
    Too Bad for Jason Rogers that Morris is at 1st in AA. Rogers rate stats suggest A+ isn't too much of a challenge and you'd love to see him even higher since he is 24. Morris could argue a promotion, but he strikes me a someone who would benefit by continuing to refine the approach at a level he can really put up numbers.
  7. igor67
    The nearly at 3000 hits is a fair point, think about it the other way around. He has played 24 seasons and doesn't have 3000 hits. If he walked all the time that might be something, but while his defense was good it is not exceptional enough to put him over the top with essentially typical SS production with the bat.
  8. igor67
    It's also possible to wear out in your debut just from the excitement/stress. It is not like established pitchers haven't been clobbered by this line-up either. The flipside is that other than HRs then never really got much going against him.
  9. igor67
    I'm pretty excited to see what Mondesi Jr. can do. Given the unanticipated jump to Helena and the pedigree he seems like a guy who could really start making people take notice.
  10. igor67
    As another analyst pointed out the slot values for this 'shafting' of the players are actually above last years slots by a fair amount. There is longer term cost certainty with this approach, but what you are really preventing is the one-two absurd contracts a year to this years once in a generation player. Seems pretty generally fair to all parties. If you worried about the owners making too much money that is really a different issue.
  11. igor67
    As I recall, the simple version is that in the offseason the DL and 25 man roster disappear and everybody has to be on the 40-man. In that case as long as the Brewers are willing to let him keep that spot the DL can then solve the problem when you assemble to 25-man next spring. The only crunch is if they feel there are other guys they want to protect next winter during the rule V draft.
  12. igor67
    Josh Prince is definitely having his best offensive season ever, though you might be able to make an argument that his performance in the FSL wasn't that bad, since it is the FSL. I've been pretty uninterested in Prince, but is it possible they move him back to SS? His current line would look pretty nice at the big league level right now. As a CFer though there are just too many other bodies to think he can out compete them. One big advantage for him might be as a super utility guy. Get on base, work counts and being able to back-up middle infield and OF is a pretty solid profile even if the team might worry about error totals on a regular basis at SS.
  13. igor67
    I can't fault a guy for wanting to finish his degree, or deciding that being on the road all the time isn't the thing, but I would definitely love to have him back. He was the one guy before the draft as a position player where if things really came together he could be an All-star level guy.
  14. igor67
    One would think the Helena box scores are going to be pretty fun to follow with these guys at the top signing so fast. Too bad about Roache, not being able to join them.
  15. igor67
    Sure the Pirates fell apart last year, but no one is really running away this year, and some of the other pieces on that team are more in place long term this year than last. Given that their offense has been so bad, improving it would be pretty easy. Grab Youkillis and Soriano. Neither of which would be terribly difficult and they could add quite a bit of offense for the remainder of the year.
  16. igor67
    Dunn does two of the most important things very well, his biggest problem is that everything else he does poorly. Not so-so, but comfortably below average. The speed and defense would take him down a peg, but I'd say his biggest problem is actually his batting average. It turns out that having ridiculously low averages does hurt. Despite all the HRs his career SLG is only .505. That's a reflection of relatively few doubles and singles to go with those over the fencers. I had thought of him having a better chance that many, but when I peaked at those numbers he does indeed seem like he has almost no shot, unless he has a flukey long career and piles up HRs.
  17. igor67
    I think it's fair to say that if Maldanado keeps smacking clutch HRs at his current rate and taking his walks that changes some things. His record doesn't indicate he should provide that much offense, but I'll certainly take it right now. Casey had two whole years before he turned back into a pumpkin. In back-up catcher ABs that practically gets us to his free agency period.
  18. igor67
    In fairness to Geoff had also had a lot of value as a pretty good defensive LF, average or better range and that arm added a nice chunk to his value.
  19. igor67
    The flipside though is that if he got injured again, or because it was a wrist his power doesn't return right away he's risking well over a million dollars.
  20. igor67
    Weeks should be worried, with Aram at least being respectable Green is easily out outperforming him. Now would be a good time to tell Weeks he is going to get a few days to sit and clear his head. See if Green can really put things together here for a bit. It's also worth making sure Ransom gets a longish look at SS. It's hard not to want to peek at Bianchi at this point, but it is still worth giving guys a shot to show themselves.
  21. igor67
    Given how the signings are turning out so far, and with next year being a deeper draft that has some additional appeal. I do have a hard time figuring out how you get back to a competitive team next year losing both without some more immediate return.
  22. igor67
    I wonder with that kind of insane bat control if he could be a threat to hit .400 if he decided to give up on the long ball.
  23. igor67
    Random question/comment I have this vague notion that there was some sort of cumulative part of the signing bonus from year to year. I could be completely wrong, but if that was the case the apparent run on signability makes a lot of sense. Build up a cushion for next year with more talent.
  24. igor67
    Given the apparent run on seniors during the draft it seems rather surprising that Blaski lasted that long. Can't argue with value.
  25. igor67
    The problem is back when men were men pre 1987 those guys had just as much pressure adrenaline (anytime anywhere against anybody to come in and pitch) and the whole business. This is a case where the 'traditionalists' are slaves to a silly number and the analytic folks are calling for real machismo. At least some of the convolution is driven by the ballparks. Prior to Trevor Hoffman and the WWE style entrance music you did not have teams marketing the 9th inning. And hopefully as we all know marketing does in fact work and change our attitudes in this case its nearly perfect from the teams perspective. 9th inning leads are generally pretty safe, and with an above average pitcher coming in those odds go up. By emphasizing those 9th innings you are increasing the emotional attachment to likely wins, which is a pretty good if accidental marketing strategy. In this case it has turned relievers into shells of their former selves and the ability to go multiple innings or really pitch out of jams.
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